Major Macro Trends And Outlooks

This account will update with information often related to trades in my signature trade explorer "Two Tenths Equity Trades" but always related to the market, economics, current events or politics.

My signature trade explorer is MQL5.com free demo signal https://www.mql5.com/en/signals/715155

I intend to present macro trends on instruments offering high probability directions of greater than 1% volatility to trend for at least 3 days but sometimes very short-term opportunities of interest arise and they may be included.

Outlooks presented here will mostly be supposing duration of greater than 1-month, sometimes ranging to years.

Content will mostly be filtered by how fundamentally interesting the directions are and confidence in probability.

The most prudent opportunities I find in the market, very occasionally, I will post as their own threads with reverse links to this thread.

I bid you happy trading.

The first macro-trend I'll present in this thread should be an obvious one. Buy world stock market indexes with profit-limits set between +5% and +10%. Preferred Nikkei 225, Dow 30, France 40, Sweden 30, AUS200.

Buy GBP/USD profit-limit +4% or 1.22 quote 1.17 is an enormous opportunity in probability.

Link to trade discussion thread "Buy-GBP Buy-JPY Sell-USD 90-Day MEGA HIGH PROB 3/22/20!"
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...9#post12828619

EUR/USD appears poised to move up towards 1.10 in the near-term. That would yield around 2% from today ask/buy-EUR/USD quotes.

The stock market rebound for global stock indexes I posted in anticipation of 5 days ago on March 20th is already well underway.

Stock market index (FRA40, Nikkei225, FTSE, NASDAQ and Dow30) rebound has been a bit disappointing, I'm beginning to believe there may be another leg down upcoming for stock market prices.

Reminder: Brent Crude has achieved astounding quote prices, it is a buy currently.

Bouyancy in stock market indexes (notably inspired by Nikkei 225) at opening leads me to believe there is likely going to be an extension in the rebound after consolidation leads to a corner with a 1-4 week outlook. Remaining reasonable upside estimated around +15% from today's quotes. This applies roundly to peers FTSE 100, Dow 30, S&P 500, Australia 200 and Nikkei 225.

XAU/USD (Gold / US Dollar) is giving repeated signals of bearish reversal or at least pullback from quotes 1,615-USD, I consider 1,500-USD appropriate for target price in short-selling.

It seems apparent that Bitcoin / USD has resumed the pullback which began in February a 2 months ago and has further downside to go - possibly as far down as 4,000-USD from quote 6,000-USD. This will be compounded by the fact that traders will want to raise as much cash as possible to trade the market which will create a supply flood, thus decreasing bitcoin prices relative to major currencies.

I pruned the my signature explorers positions for profit, mostly, and created new positions, sell USD vs. majors, mostly. Looks like GBP/USD is due to take profits to the tune of 1% in the near future.

It appears that global stock index prices are on the verge of falling, again, based on clues from German stock index and Hong Kong stock index. Assume a double bottom as one of the more probable scenarios.

I sure nailed the NASDAQ with that sell expectation.

Time to sell the NASDAQ again, lock downs are being lifted while contagion will persist. Corporate profit margins on wall street are doomed to crash into the gutter, good for the dollar.

Sell NASDAQ Composite
Sell USD/JPY
Sell EUR/JPY
Sell Bitcoin/USD

And be sure to take profits as they appear significantly.

I have a strong suspicion XAU/USD (Gold vs. US Dollar) is headed towards $1,600 (currently above $1,700) as the Dow Jones Industrial Average intends to take profits near all time highs. The reasoning is self explanatory.

Not a direction to short-sell XAU/USD, it's merely a probable nuance in regards to current market scenario.

Consider this account deactivated.