Shouldn't the Euro be going up... NO.

I warned my fellow FF friends yesterday about the demise of the dollar.

1 - The rate increase was already priced in. Everyone knew it was coming.

2 - The Oil bubble is upon us. It's like Amazon at $400/share back in day. It's not if it will blow south it's when. Fair value for a barrel is around $100.

3 - A 62K loss in June is a blessing compared to what some economists were forecasting. The ADP number had everyone fearing the worst. The worst didnt' pan out. It was bad - but not horrific. Remember - economists are great at predicting past results.

4 - When the herd is preaching about any one extreme you can be sure it's about to swing the other direction. The Euro at .6200 was a forgone conclusion. That idea is certainly gone for now.

5 - The dollar is the world's currency. It will remain so for a very long time. The idea of the EURO as the new world currency is a pipe dream. It won't happen in my life time.

6 - The Fed is done. Rates are going up unless something catastrophic happens.

Well well well...
it prooved THE MARKET DISCOUNT EVERYTHING

you all check ur weekly/daily charts, will the USD ever return in its value to its highs as of 2001? I see many reasons why the USD can never take a long term reversal recovery. the best that could happpen is keeping those currencies in range and preventing itself from more depreciation.

1. It has too many currencies trying to push it down. u think of it, the USD is paired with too many major currencies. it has been agreed upon that market movement should move according to their economic releases/fundamentals from G7 meetings and dis has been the case except at few times when there are political/diplomatic interventions e.g war of words between trichet and bernanke 2-3 weeks ago. u now tell me how the USD fundamentals alone (a single nation) can keep countering the fundamentals of EUR(many nations together !), GBP, AUD, and NZD.this is just like a producer trying to outrun 4 major and many other minor producers.it should be threatning for the dollars that 70-75% of the euro's fundamentals alone dis year had been sound even as trichet would always confirm, talkless of including the fundametals of the others.It cannot be that easy standing when you are receiving pressure from so many other sources ?

2. A rising trend in prices of commodities such as oil, gold, silver etc most times depreciates the dollar. u think of it, recently, increasing demands in oil bcos of reduced suply has led to skyroketing of oil price which inadvertently is affecting the dollar negatively and contributing to its woes. can the demand for this comodities be reduced on the longer term? i dont think so, these commodities are always in increasing demand ? therefore their prices will always have to rise on the longer term outlook and hence the dollar must always somehow be pushed to depreciate. If then this be, what will be the hope for the dollars ? i see none except an intervention.bcos e.g oil will always get to 200dols per barrel ? is it not a matter of time ? fine there will be so many ups and down in its journey to 200dols per barrel ?

3.Bad and continuos release of fundamentals.The US presently is either at the middle or maybe tail end of a maybe minor recession or if its even major !. the economy is so bad, u imagine todays non farm payroll result, employers keep cutting jobs, unemployment still at highest level, unemployment claims even worse than expected.i tell people that the US will not recover from bad fundamentals so soon? they have been a bad fundamental releaser since 2001.

If at all there will be a long term recovery, it will involve an intervention from the G7 and that not once !