I do not expect much correction on the EUR/USD until the 1.3192 to 1.3220 area, it has slowed a bit, but your correct on the trend.
I would be watching for the Fed Man, he probably will boost your profits some more, I do not expect a fast retracement based just on his speech, but I do see it coming around the corner this week.
Looks like Big Ben spoke and it basically clarified the trend for EUR/USD to slowly creep up. There was a small spike up at 5:30 am, but the price faltered, and now is cimbing.
Since the News at 5:30 California time, there has been an increase of 14 pips on the price at 9:45 am, which shows me the EUR/USD has cooled a bit, but holding its ground lightly.
I am still expecting the retracement to come NLT Thursday, which is usually the days I make most trades on retracement entries, I am watching the 1 day and 1 month charts.
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Commercial Member
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Joined Oct 2006
|1,158 Posts
Hi again Monarch,
Yes, I see that pairs are cooling a bit... that was expected because all of that huge movements days before. Honestly I will keep my trades opened, and wait until confirmation of trend exhaustion.
In the meanwhile I will sit back an relax... I have good profits now... and am not so greedy to cut trades now just to see how price climed some days from now.
I wish you good trades if you decide to enter a retracement... I have learnt I dont like countertrend trades anymore... but I we can help each other to succeed... would be great!
I have traded with several different techniques, which all work good for me.
The main purpose of studying the Elliot Wave and Retracement Patterns is for several reasons:
1. It forces me to watch several Currency Pairs in a larger scope, and in return it helps me become more familiar with its trending patterns.
2. The reason I have placed importance on the retracement waves is two fold;
a. It is my way of knowing when a currency is about to change its trend direction, or if it is just a corrective wave pattern in the trend. Having this information will help me while I am in a trade. It will either signal an exit, or confirm that my position is still going with the trend.
b. I am also trying to find the Wave patterns not only for the retracement value, but it will help me with making precise key entries at the top of a wave and at the corrective bottom of a wave pattern. This will help increase my percentage of profits by trading both directions of the wave patterns, even though the currency pair is only going in one trend direction.
I have watched other threads that signal a entry point and it is usually real far from the price that it is at that time, and I have asked them this question.
"If you see the price climbing that high before it retraces, why don't you take a Long on the way up to that price, then when it gets near your point of retracement area, take a Short entry for the ride down?"
So far no one has answered my question, so I have set out on a study for myself that would answer my own question.
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Commercial Member
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Joined Oct 2006
|1,158 Posts
Maybe the answer is because "they are not so sure about that price". Sadly a lot of traders are trying to "guess" tops and bottoms. They trade what they think, not what the see.
Honestly I prefer not to enter at a PERFECT prize, but to earn some pips.
Monarch, I just wanted you to know I opened a new trade, a usdjpy LONG, I am not that sure, but I will take that risk.
I guess it is one thing for me to try to pin-point a reversal point, and at times it is just a good guessing game. I am in the learning process, therefore I do not have the ability, or claim to have the ability to look into the crystal ball of retracement points. It has helped me to recognize certain key movements. I would hope that in my experiment and learning I would leave the game of trying to find the needle in the hay stack mentality, and I could become a smarter trader.
Your Trades look good, Long on USD/JPY though, probably will go that direction soon.
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Commercial Member
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Joined Oct 2006
|1,158 Posts
That is an interesting question... I watch 1H, 4H and DAILY. Very few times Weekly...
I use essentially fib levels, supports, resistance, and reversal patterns... in other words... if i draw an upward fib... and then inside of it another upward fib... and price in one day brakes 61% fib retracement... i strongly consider to get out a trade... but not to reverse it at that time...
It is hard for me to explain because it is not a fixed interpretation. I look at a chart and i constantly draw lines... fibs... until i reach a line and fibs that convince me. Essay and error. Takes some time to draw them and interpret them.
Actually I watch very few indicators... Maybe just on dailies... but i rather concentrate on price action only
The news did not seem to push the EUR/USD Below the S-1 Daily, it may bounce around it for a while, but the Support looks to be holding. I would expect for it to break the Support later depending on the news reports still coming today.
I still expect the EUR/USD to rise to the 1.3220/1.3230 area before actually descending.
GBP/USD should continue to rise to 1.9600 area still.
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Commercial Member
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Joined Oct 2006
|1,158 Posts
Yes Monarch... I have only 3 trades... and... I guess the next news are going to decide any retracement... or not... i will decide if i close it with profits today or leaving my trades opened... but i will wait maybe until ny close to decide... u have opened trades?