Hi Brian, call me Kim. Thanks for good idea you show . How do you deal with swap fee while waiting for bad trades turning into your direction? Do you take into account about +/- swap when you enter a trade? Is it better to only trade in + swap direction?
- #63
- Edited 3:01am Mar 12, 2019 2:48am | Edited 3:01am
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- #64
- Mar 12, 2019 2:53am Mar 12, 2019 2:53am
- Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Coder | 8,521 Posts
Try don't lose pants never...
- #65
- Mar 12, 2019 2:55am Mar 12, 2019 2:55am
- Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Coder | 8,521 Posts
Try don't lose pants never...
- #67
- Mar 12, 2019 3:41am Mar 12, 2019 3:41am
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Interesting. Will be following this thread with keen interest. Have you tried this with random entries OP?
If you ask about if MM can deal with bad systems answer is NO. You need a few min requirements. But i think many systems in this forum can be candidates if you adapt MM to them.The most sensible need is about extreme trades. Its typical in auto systems ( and many traders too ). If this kind of trades are the common then anything can save you
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- #69
- Edited 4:38am Mar 12, 2019 4:28am | Edited 4:38am
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Try don't lose pants never...
- #70
- Mar 12, 2019 4:34am Mar 12, 2019 4:34am
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Try don't lose pants never...
- #71
- Mar 12, 2019 4:57am Mar 12, 2019 4:57am
- Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Coder | 8,521 Posts
Try don't lose pants never...
- #72
- Mar 12, 2019 5:36am Mar 12, 2019 5:36am
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- #73
- Edited 8:34am Mar 12, 2019 8:20am | Edited 8:34am
- Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Coder | 8,521 Posts
And this capture confirm my idea about big DD effect is not main real accounts wiper. In one day will covered 6 weeks DD with constant profit. In this week even we are in profit. Evidently is better don't have DD but if you can't avoid it at least you have ways to deal with it
A couple points i will like say are:
1) Abs DD is lower that monday (we recovered 700 pips )
2) Worst DD trades are closer to leave from non recoverable area. Then we have a chance to lost less trades. Really we have only 2 in that area now
A couple points i will like say are:
1) Abs DD is lower that monday (we recovered 700 pips )
2) Worst DD trades are closer to leave from non recoverable area. Then we have a chance to lost less trades. Really we have only 2 in that area now
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- #74
- Mar 12, 2019 4:11pm Mar 12, 2019 4:11pm
- Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Coder | 8,521 Posts
We will return to one of topic we let pending: What is the non recoverable area?
We found 2 areas:
From -100/-200p with a performance -> 236p/-949p ( abs total ) - 6 trades - Avg ( 39,3p/-158p )
EJ- > 71/-196 ( worst DD trade )
From -200p with a performance -> 143/-984( abs total ) - 4 trades - Avg ( 35,75p/-246p )
GA -> Not Closed/-540 ( worst DD trade )
But for have better view we will put profit made from open trades date ( 20 Feb ) to peak DD ( 1 Mar )
We had 2200p profit. Now we have all data for build the plan. As I told non recoverable trade is one is in loss long time without return to profit. We have some things to check before decide if close it or no:
1) Time opened
2) Max DD and current DD
2) DD is growing in X last candles? ( is really recovering )
3) Is profit closed X times current loss?
In next post we will check a closed trade: EJ
We found 2 areas:
From -100/-200p with a performance -> 236p/-949p ( abs total ) - 6 trades - Avg ( 39,3p/-158p )
EJ- > 71/-196 ( worst DD trade )
From -200p with a performance -> 143/-984( abs total ) - 4 trades - Avg ( 35,75p/-246p )
GA -> Not Closed/-540 ( worst DD trade )
But for have better view we will put profit made from open trades date ( 20 Feb ) to peak DD ( 1 Mar )
We had 2200p profit. Now we have all data for build the plan. As I told non recoverable trade is one is in loss long time without return to profit. We have some things to check before decide if close it or no:
1) Time opened
2) Max DD and current DD
2) DD is growing in X last candles? ( is really recovering )
3) Is profit closed X times current loss?
In next post we will check a closed trade: EJ
Try don't lose pants never...
- #75
- Edited 5:10pm Mar 12, 2019 4:40pm | Edited 5:10pm
- Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Coder | 8,521 Posts
EJ had max DD 190p at 1 March. Along time trades was opened until max DD we had 2200p profit. Up to date close was 4132p ( 7 March )
If we decided need 3 times profit for close that means we will need at least 190 x 3 = 570p profit for close it ( if take max DD ).
Now we will check where we had the edge. Area -100p ( nasty ) was reached 28 Feb. That day we had 1879p profit.
1) Profit made trade fits with rule 3 times more at that date ( 100 x 3 = 300p ). OK
2) Time passed 8 days ( for do it fast, average all trades in nasty area are >10 days ). NO
3) Candles are not in retracement. Is growing. OK
4) Current DD: -100p Max DD: -100p. Its bad timing trade ( no profit ). OK
Its a good candidate for close. But before we wil make some numbers taking advantage we know the future.
Profit: 71p
DD: -196p
Seeing what happened we know:
1) If trade is closed we will avoid -96p DD but we will loss -100p ( 28 Feb profit 1879 - 100 = 1779 ). DD relative to profit closed 28 Feb was 5.3% ( 1879 vs -100 )
2) If we wait profit close we will have 71p more. This was 3.7% of that profit day ( 28 Feb ) and 1.17% of trade close date ( 7 March ) .
Then now I would like ask traders their decision knowing this info. Close or keep?
If we decided need 3 times profit for close that means we will need at least 190 x 3 = 570p profit for close it ( if take max DD ).
Now we will check where we had the edge. Area -100p ( nasty ) was reached 28 Feb. That day we had 1879p profit.
1) Profit made trade fits with rule 3 times more at that date ( 100 x 3 = 300p ). OK
2) Time passed 8 days ( for do it fast, average all trades in nasty area are >10 days ). NO
3) Candles are not in retracement. Is growing. OK
4) Current DD: -100p Max DD: -100p. Its bad timing trade ( no profit ). OK
Its a good candidate for close. But before we wil make some numbers taking advantage we know the future.
Profit: 71p
DD: -196p
Seeing what happened we know:
1) If trade is closed we will avoid -96p DD but we will loss -100p ( 28 Feb profit 1879 - 100 = 1779 ). DD relative to profit closed 28 Feb was 5.3% ( 1879 vs -100 )
2) If we wait profit close we will have 71p more. This was 3.7% of that profit day ( 28 Feb ) and 1.17% of trade close date ( 7 March ) .
Then now I would like ask traders their decision knowing this info. Close or keep?
Try don't lose pants never...
The most sensible need is about extreme trades. Its typical in auto systems ( and many traders too ). If this kind of trades are the common then anything can save you . Post 68
Can you explain what do you mean by extreme trades. Are these with very big lot size or very big loss. Thanks and
Regards
. Post 68Can you explain what do you mean by extreme trades. Are these with very big lot size or very big loss. Thanks and
Regards
- #78
- Mar 13, 2019 1:36am Mar 13, 2019 1:36am
- Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Coder | 8,521 Posts
The most sensible need is about extreme trades. Its typical in auto systems ( and many traders too ). If this kind of trades are the common then anything can save you
They are the worst entry possible. How bad will be depends of pair and if that new wave leg is a pullback or a swing ( new tremd ). Lot size is always fixed then problem is trades quality. Put a trade when new leg will go against it is not a good idea
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- #79
- Mar 13, 2019 1:38am Mar 13, 2019 1:38am
- Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Coder | 8,521 Posts
Lot size for that balance/win ratio/ number trades is so low. Even using 1 lot per 10k is very safe. As you have 100k you should try 10 lots. Post 70 If week goes in profit. Next week I increase the lot by 0.15. Eventually my lot size will get there.
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- #80
- Mar 13, 2019 1:55am Mar 13, 2019 1:55am
- Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Coder | 8,521 Posts
Try don't lose pants never...