Before I give a rundown on what I presently see happening with EURUSD, I’ll first touch on the US Dollar Index big picture because there is a big discrepancy between what’s happening on the long-term timeframe compared to the intermediate-term there.
The monthly chart below shows that although the cycle has remained high, the trend is still bullish. The long-term bull trend of the US Dollar Index started in 2014 when the market broke above the dashed green line. Any dips along the way were mostly higher lows. However, in early 2018 the pullback in this long-term uptrend was deep enough to break below the bands (marked with a green ellipse) and had some nervous hands thinking about going short. We said at the time that we needed to pay attention to the 200-period moving average laying just below the bands.
This key level was able to support price and it started to rise again from here. We actually got long in the area of the 200 MA and added to the position in early 2018 as price started breaking back above the lows marked with another dashed green line. The long-term bullish trend for the Dollar Index remains intact and still above the 8-period moving average (yellow arrow). I still believe the next move will be a rise in the Dollar Index, perhaps even retesting the late-2016 highs.
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The monthly chart below shows that although the cycle has remained high, the trend is still bullish. The long-term bull trend of the US Dollar Index started in 2014 when the market broke above the dashed green line. Any dips along the way were mostly higher lows. However, in early 2018 the pullback in this long-term uptrend was deep enough to break below the bands (marked with a green ellipse) and had some nervous hands thinking about going short. We said at the time that we needed to pay attention to the 200-period moving average laying just below the bands.
This key level was able to support price and it started to rise again from here. We actually got long in the area of the 200 MA and added to the position in early 2018 as price started breaking back above the lows marked with another dashed green line. The long-term bullish trend for the Dollar Index remains intact and still above the 8-period moving average (yellow arrow). I still believe the next move will be a rise in the Dollar Index, perhaps even retesting the late-2016 highs.
Continue reading the full article for FREE here https://www.jenkinsrm.com/dollar-and-euro-update