Palmer's Trading Journal (Do not post)

Hey,

This is a second crack at recording my trades. After not trading since January I finally have the time needed to trade. In this first post I will announce and update my:

Trade criteria
Total returns
Completed trades

In the continuing posts I will post my trades as I enter them, all of them, and I will include my charting/analysis.

I ask that you don't post comments here, even encouragement, as this is my bookkeeping page. I will open a second thread, "Palmer's Live Trading Discussion" for discussions or encouragement.

Acknowledgement:
#1- J2Fcm: He got me into forex, which was probably one of the best things that has happened to me in about 29.7 years.
#2- James16, Dialist and Fijitrader. These guys have an amazing system and I hope "I do good by it". I'm no pro though, so there's a good chance I might misinterpret/misunderstand a concept of theirs.
#3- Jacko and StieveT's threads. I took good information away from them and am sincerely grateful.

Methodology:

Trade signals:
Double/Triple bar low/high - creates new support/resistance for breakout
Double/Triple bar low/high Close - trend changes/swings
Outside bars - Trend continuation
Pin bars/Pinnochio - Swings/breakouts (combined with Fib's)

Trade entry points:
On Fib retracements, or above resistances/ below supports for breakouts.

Trade exit points:
Based on 4 hour tunnel MT4 program. You'll see the bands following the 55 EMA that indicate take profit points, on my graphs.

Money Management:
Leveraged account balance: $500
Actual deposited funds: $500

Risk 1-2% ($5-10) per trade


Date: 4/10/8

Current balances:
__________________Start_____Current_____Total Change
USD________________500______534.31_______34.31
% Acct Gain_________0________2.726%_______6.862%

*Added funds, percent gain is still accurate
As time goes on I will add additional funds, but the percent gain remains a universally accurate figure
For example- I have calculated percent gain on a $500 account. Now I add $200. If I calculate percentages from that point on for a $700 account the total percentage gain will still reflect respective "Account Gain" despite the fluctuation in total account value (percentages are valueless).
**On 6/22/8 I have updated my balance- I have created a new account with a clean dollar history, but am keeping all trades recorded. This new account actually has $500, and on top of that I am adding in the percent gained/lost thus far to bring my Long Term account to an accurate balance. Prior to this update my account reflected scalping, trend trading, and long term trading. Now this account and balance will reflect all the mistakes/gains I've made thus far and, from this point on, ONLY the long term trading I make- no more scalps or trend trading here.

2008___________
April
$ Gain______________ $17.13
% Acct Gain___________ 3.426%

May
$ Gain______________ $3.60
% Acct Gain___________ 0.71%

June
$ Gain______________ $13.63
% Acct Gain___________ 2.726%


Good luck trading guys!

EUR/GBP
Entry: 0.79230 (50%), 0.79280 (50%)
Stop Loss: 0.7885
Take Profit: 0.7990

Prediction:

The Monthly, Weekly and Daily all show a strong uptrend. I am going with the trend on this trade.

The 4 and 1 hour charts indicate a new pivot point (James16 term) or resistance at 0.7895, suggesting to me that price might "breakout" from this point.

Also, there's a pinnochio crossing the 50% fib retracement (from the March 26th low) AND the 33% retracement (from the March 27th low).

I predict the price will increase to at least the first 4 hour tunnel take profit point.

Results:

4/8/8 - 50% taken for profit (1% account gain)

Graph 1: 4h
Graph 2: Current Oanda results/position
Graph 3: 1h

Hello,

Outcome of the 4/7 trade- stopped out for profit on the second half of the trade. (picture 1)

I am satisfied with this trade. The exit point was great, although if I changed anything I would consider sticking to the 4 hour tunnel exit point. I took my guarenteed 50% of the position profit and moved the stop/loss to ensure a winner didn't become a looser, though, so in this case I'm quite happy.

Total profit: $8.75
Account size: $500
% Account gain: 1.75%

Hey guys, sorry but this one's already done, so it's not technically a live trade.

CAD/JPY
Entry: 99.5
Stop Loss: 100.05
Take Profit: 98.20

Prediction:

The Monthly, Weekly and Daily all show a strong downtrend (according to the 4 hour tunnel). I am going with the trend on this trade.

The Daily chart shows what appears to be a bearish outside bar, or possibly a double high/low close. Obviously I won't know what this is until the bar closes at the end of 4/8/8. Either way, this suggests to me that the downtrend will continue/gain momentum in the short term.

The 4 hour chart indicate that price is trending down, strongly, and that it has already broken the 66% retracement. Using the 4 hour tunnel and Fibb from the 4/1/8 low, it appears that price will continue down since it has broken past the 55 EMA and the 66% Fib retracement, until it reaches the next set of take profit points: where the 23% and 0% fib retracements meet the take profit points on the 4 hour tunnel chart (see chart 1).

I predict the price will decrease to at least the first 4 hour tunnel take profit point.

Results:

4/9/8 - Take profit point is reached
PIPS Gain: 135
% Gain: 2.43%

Graph 1: 4h
Graph 2: Daily
Graph 3: Current Oanda results/position

Hello Friends,

AUD/JPY
Entry: 92.7
Stop Loss: 93.4
Take Profit: 91.65

Prediction:

The Monthly, and Weekly show a downtrend with lower highs and lower lows, however the market is slightly choppy in the long run right now. I am going with the trend on this trade.

The Weekly chart shows what appears to be a forming Pinnochio. Because the pinnochio isn't formed, and because the trade is choppy, this is a B+ trade, and I am risking only 1.25% at this point ($6.25). When the pinnochio forms further, and the downtrend is confirmed, I will add on additional positions to a total of 2%, or possibly add on a complete additional 2% if my original 1.25% is locked into profit.

The Daily & 4 hour charts indicate a new pivot point (James16 term) or resistance at 93.40, and price has broken past this resistance today.This could just be a temporary low, so I have placed my entry below the lowest bar in the trend (30-50 pips below the current price).

The pinnochio doesn't cross any fib points, and this is speculative, hence the B+ rating. I have an entry indicator (resistance and pinnochio), trending with the major trend, and a great exit point, but not everything has lined up yet.

I predict the price will decrease to at least the second 4 hour tunnel take profit point.

Actually! Now that I look at the 1h chart, it appears that new resistance, prior support, has a TBH with a LC! Triple bar high (see picture) that couldn't break through the resistance/previous support, and then a lower close. I don't like using the 1 hour for indicators, only support, but I am seriously considering adding a second 1.25% position at the resistance with the expectation that price will bounce off again and start a downtrend. Given the expected volatility this week though (I don't know much about fundamentals, just what I read on forexfactory once in a while) I haven't decided yet...

Okay, I'll risk another .5% of the account bringing my total to 1.75% risked.
Changed the stop loss- still risking only .5%, but now my stop loss on this second trade is a much healther 35 pips, rather than 20 pips (I usually try to maintain a 50 pip loss because:

a) Jim advocates using larger time frame trades, and thus larger stop/loss setups (hopefully I have this right)

b) Jacko recommends a 50 pip loss using his method, which I am trying to apply to all currencies I trade, not just the EUR/USD.

AUD/JPY
Second entry:93.30
Stop Loss:93.5 (same) Correction: Stop loss is now 93.65
Take profit: 91.65 (same)

And that's it! Time for the graphs!
Graph 1: AUD JPY weekly
Graph 2: AUD JPY 4 hour
Graph 2: AUD JPY 1 hour

Hello,

Outcome of the 4/13 trade- both positions were hit for a loss.

Total loss: $8.75
Account size: $500
% Account loss: -1.75%

EUR/USD
Entry: 1.59160
Stop Loss: 1.58600
Take Profit: 1.59850

Prediction:

The Monthly, Weekly and Daily all show a strong uptrend. I am going with the trend on this trade.

The weekly shows price appears to have broken through a resistance at 1.59, so price may be headed up.

The 4 and 1 hour charts show consolidation or price, suggesting to me that price might "breakout" may occur soon. I am trying to follow the Jacko "buy when price retraces" method, so I set my entry with a stop right below the confluence fib retraces at 1.587. In retrospect, since I am posting this trade after it was already completed, the only thing I would have changed would to have been to place my entry point much closer to the retracement- but the same outcome would have occured.

I predict the price will increase to the 100% fib retracement point.

Graph 1: Daily
Graph 2: 4h
Graph 3: 1h

Hello,

Outcome of the 4/17 trade- loss.

Total loss: $2.8
Account size: $500
% Account loss: -0.56%

Analysis: I didn't see this one coming- I was simply wrong. I identified a consolidation, identified the trends, and identified a possible entry point based on the fib retracement confluence. Luckily, since this was a B trade I risked a smaller than normal position.

This makes me want to learn fundamentals or at least, for crying out loud, find an information source that lists the most highly correlated causes of price fluctuation for a given currency (i.e. oil prices, food prices, etc). But then, this is a topic for the discussion journal.

GBP/USD
Entry: 1.97950
Stop Loss: 1.98250
Take Profit: 1.9700

*Note- I got greedy here- I should be using a 50 pip stop on all trades.
See outcome for details

Prediction:

The Monthly, Weekly and Daily all show a recent change to the previous strong uptrend. I don't know whether this is an attempt at correction by the market, or just indecision, regardless I am going with the current down trend on this trade.

The Daily and Weekly charts show price is in a downtrend without any signals suggesting this trend will reverse suggesting to me that price will continue down now that it has broken past the fibb retracement (see 4h chart). The Daily chart has a large Bearish Outside Bar suggesting a strong movement. This was the main reason I am interested in this trade.

The 4 Hour chart shows that price has broken through a Fibb confluence at 1.9845, using fib's drawn from the low's of 4/17 and 4/15. This suggests to me that this fib may act as a new resistance, with the next fib confluence acting as a support at 1.9700. This second confirmation, price breaking past fib confluence suggest to me this is at least a B+ trade.

I predict the price will drop to the next fib confluence at 1.9700.

Graph 1: Daily
Graph 2: 4h
Graph 3: 1h

Hello,

Outcome of the 4/21 trade- loss.

Total loss: $3
Account size: $500
% Account loss: -0.6%

Analysis: My stop was too tight. What was I thinking? I was greedy, I tried shortened my stop to increase my position size for the same risk. Ironically I still increased my risk. I should have stuck to my 50 pip stop. Bad decision.

Following Jacko's method, I have replaced my entry with a 50 pip stop. Risk this time is a full 2% because I believe this trade is dead on.

Hello,

Outcome of the second 4/21 trade (re-entry after being stopped out)- gain.

Total gain: $4.17
Account size: $500
% Account Gain: 0.834%

Analysis:

Entry Criteria (see previous post)
Following Jacko's method, I have replaced my entry with a 50 pip stop. Risk this time is a full 2% because I believe this trade is dead on.

Fortunately, I remembered the "never let a winner become a loser", and upped my stop/loss once I was clearly in profit. Once the price dipped about 15 pips below 1.9770 I moved profit to 1.9770 to ensure I came out ahead, and let the trade go expecting price to hit 1.9700.

It appears my prediction was wrong- even though price eventually dropped to 1.9700 and bounced back from those confluent fib retracements, the upswing was impossibly large. Price rebounded to 1.9970 so there's no way this trade would have worked out. On this trade the only thing that I have taken away is to make sure my winners don't become loosers.

EUR/CAD LONG
Entry: 1.6160
Stop Loss: 1.6110
Take Profit: 1.6250
Position size: .5%
(miscalculated- actually risked .736%)
Trade: B

Prediction:

The Monthly & Daily show a downtrend. The Daily has a very weak pinbar, that I wouldn't trade on, suggesting that price may go down.

The Weekly graph shows a ranging price.

I am going with and against the trend on this trade. I am retarded.
Edit* This post was created after the trade. In all seriousness, I saw a consolidation and hoped to catch the breakout. Unfortunately I guessed wrong, didn't have an entry signal, and shouldn't have entered the trade. This was a guess, not a trade.

The 4 Hour and 1 Hour chart shows a continual higher high and higher low on the price, with regular retracements roughly every day. I guessed that the large bullish outside bar from 4/23 would continue the uptrend following a retracement. I placed my entry above the open price 8 hours prior (4 Hour chart), and also above the previous retracement highs.

I predict the price will continue to increase until the next Fib confluence and 4 hour tunnel take profit level (see 4 hour chart).

Graph 1: Weekly
Graph 2: 4h
Graph 3: 1h

Hello,

Outcome of the 4/23 trade- loss.

Total loss: $3.68
Account size: $500
% Account loss: -0.736%

Analysis: What was I thinking? I was gambling, not trading. I was working on a consolidation when my current system isn't setup to trade without entry signals.

Take home:
1) I need to review scalping methods- that's something I should be prepared to enact once my account size reaches above 10k.

2) I need to study consolidations in order to accurately predict breakouts-
a) Entry signals
b) Exits
c) True breakouts
d) Stop/loss methods

CHF/JPY SHORT
Entry: 101.55 (1% risk), 101.79 (.21% risked)
Stop Loss: 102.05
Take Profit: 100.70
Position size: 1.21%
Trade: A

Prediction:

The Monthly chart shows a continual uptrend. The Weekly show a downtrend. I am trading against the monthly trend, and with the weekly trend.

The Daily graph shows DBHLC!!!! Double High Lower Close! Great signal on a longer term trade. This signal suggests to me that price is going down (in the short term) in accordance with the weekly trend. How far will it go? Let's ask the trusty 4 Hour tunnel.

The 4 Hour chart shows a TBL! Triple bar low!!! This suggests a new support which, if broken, can signal a breakout downwards (if I understand James16's price action methods correctly). At the time of this trade the latest 4h bar hasn't closed and price has rebounded above the TBL (see graph). I have set my entry (with 1% risk) right below the low of this current bullish bar expecting price to drop and fall to the first 4 hour tunnel take profit level.

The 1 Hour chart shows a pin bar but, again, this bar hasn't closed yet so this aspect is still speculative.

I predict the price will drop to the first 4 hour tunnel take profit level.

*Note: I initially risked 1%, however I wanted to risk 2% as this trade is definitely an A trade. When I tried to make that 2% committment I realized I was scared- I hadn't risked that much and I was uncomfortable even though I believed this trade to be an A trade. I finally consoled myself with only an additional .5% account amount, as an immediate entry 30pips or so above my 1% account size entry, but with the same stop loss. Kind of strange action based on my system, but that was what I felt comfortable doing.

Position: Entering below the last low.

Graph 1: Daily
Graph 2: 4h
Graph 3: 1h

Hello,

Outcome of the 4/23 trade- GAIN.

Total Gain: $12.7
Account size: $500
% Account gain: 2.54%

Analysis: Stop loss was moved to 100.75 when price reached 100.65. I removed the take profit when I saw my goal had almost been reached and I extended my take profit to the next 4 hour tunnel point.

Take home:
1) Great trade, signals and prediction
2) Try focusing only on the A trades, like a sniper, and stop playing around with the .6% and .4% risk B+ trades.

Enacting #2 will probably will result in only 1-2 trades per week, at 4-6% account increase weekly while risking 2-4%, but profits will compound. If I can get a scalping system up and running though, and get that to provide 4-6% weekly then I'll be happy.

5/6/8: EUD/CAD SHORT

EUR/CAD SHORT
Entry: 1.5605
Stop Loss: 1.5550
Take Profit: 1.5405
Position size: 1.5%
Trade: A

Prediction:

The Monthly and Weekly chart shows a recent but strong downtrend. I am trading with the trend on this one.

The Daily graph shows triple bar high, which I noticed as a resistance back in late april. Based on the price downtrend starting May 2nd, it looks like price is dropping strongly from this resistance- I will check the 4 hour for my entry... How far will it go? Let's ask the trusty 4 Hour tunnel.

The 4 Hour chart shows a DBHLC! This morning, before work, I noticed the this signal as it was very clear- at the swing point with a strong drop. Just in case it was a false signal I put my entry below the closest major Low on the hourly, at 1.5605. Looking back I sacrificed 45 pips of extra profit (1.2% profit!!!) but I am following my rules- pick an entry the reduces the chances of a bad trade, despite the potential loss of profit. At the end of the month I'll try and go back to see whether this method costs me more than it saves.
I believe, based on the strength of the monthly and weekly trends, this trade will hit the second take profit on the 4 hour tunnel, thus my exit point is at 1.5405.

The 1 Hour chart shows a clearer DBHLC.

* UPDATE
I have moved my stop forward ~12 hours after entering the trade, and again now, before I go to sleep. Current profit is $13.00 or 2.6% of account, and my stop loss guarentees a profit of $5.50. I am considering moving my stop up to $10.00 guarenteed profit...

Graph 1: Daily
Graph 2: 4h
Graph 3: Updated position w/ Oanda

5/6/8: EUD/CAD SHORT

EUR/CAD SHORT
Entry: 1.5605
Stop Loss: 1.5567
Account Gain: 1.05%
Trade: A

If I hadn't moved my stop loss up my gain would have been 2.5%.

Perhaps I should revise my rules- don't let a winner become a loser *on non-A trades*. For now I'll continue with my system, unchanged. Profit is profit.

5/15/8 AUD/USD LONG

AUD/USD LONG
Entry: 0.94250
Stop Loss: 0.93750
Take Profit: 0.94950
Position size: 1%
Trade: A-

Prediction:

The Monthly and Weekly chart shows an uptrend, however the monthly chart suggests that price will soon dip down to reach support as it seems to do quite often. I am trading with the trend.

The Daily graph shows nothing of interest- no indications or price action.

The 4 Hour chart shows a TBH! It looks like price is trying to break through this new resistance, and is currently consolidating prior to a breakout. While the major trends coincide with the predicted breakout, the long term trend tends to fall back to the monthly support line frequently so I have trouble trusting this pair. For that reason, and because the only price action is on the 4h time frame, this is an A- trade at best. I am risking 1%, and setting my take profit at the first 4hr tunnel exit point. I have created a purple resistance line and placed my entry above the TBH.

The 1 Hour chart shows a clearer TBH and a Flat top triangle, one of the first patterns I learned, suggesting price will break up.


Graph 1: Daily
Graph 2: 4h
Graph 3: 1h

Hello,

Outcome of the 5-15-8 trade- GAIN.

Total Gain: $7
Account size: $500
% Account gain: 1.4%

5/15/8 EUR/AUD SHORT

Entry: 1.63950
Stop Loss: 1.64800
Take Profit: 1.62550
Position size: 1.5%
Trade: A-

Prediction:

The Monthly and Weekly chart shows a strong, recent downtrend. There are no significant signals on this long time frame. I am trading with the trend.

The Daily graph shows nothing of interest- no indications or price action.

The 4 Hour chart shows a TBL! It looks like price is trying to break through this new support. Because the only price action is on the 4h time frame, this is an A- trade at best. I am risking 1.5%, and setting my take profit at the first 4hr tunnel exit point. I have created a purple resistance line and placed my entry below the TBL.

The 1 Hour chart shows a clearer TBL, but no other signals.


Graph 1: Daily
Graph 2: 4h
Graph 3: 1h