My forward test log

I will be posting my log of forward testing a system on the EURUSD daily here. One trade per day, every day (about 90% of the time). I am not trading this with real money or even fake money, it is just a log. I will probably tweak the system over the course of this thread, and it may not work at all. But I will try to keep it updated.

So, first one:
Sell EURUSD at 1.2833
No stop loss because I haven't devised a formula for one yet.
No target yet (see above explanation)
Close in 24 hours


****YOU SHOULD NOT TRADE THIS PREDICTION BECAUSE I AM NOT EVEN PUTTING MY OWN MONEY ON IT AND IT'S MY SYSTEM. DO NOT PLACE A TRADE OFF OF THIS INFORMATION. IF YOU DO, IT IS AT YOUR OWN RISK.****

Sorry to type in all caps, but I have to cover myself

I'll be back tomorrow,
andersenws

Ok, yesterday's trade was successful for 16 pips. It should have actually been executed at 1.2859, but due to my mistake on when MT4's "days" start, I waited too long. But anyways, it was successful, and I am continuing my Sell position.

SELL EURUSD @ 1.2817
Close at 5:00 p.m. pacific tomorrow

Total pips to date: 16
Accuracy: 1/1 100% (See how long we can keep this up )

****YOU SHOULD NOT TRADE THIS PREDICTION BECAUSE I AM NOT EVEN PUTTING MY OWN MONEY ON IT AND IT'S MY SYSTEM. DO NOT PLACE A TRADE OFF OF THIS INFORMATION. IF YOU DO, IT IS AT YOUR OWN RISK.****

Sorry to type in all caps, but I have to cover myself

I'll be back tomorrow,
andersenws

I know I'm going to need to add at least a trailing stop to this system sometime in the near future. Could anyone help me out with this? Again, I'm trading one trade per day, every day, for the length of one day. Any help is appreciated.

andersenws

Yesterday's trade was successful for one lousy pip. It is obvious that I need some sort of trailing stop implemented, as I was +46 pips at one point today.

No official position for tomorrow, my indicators are indecisive right now. My system is leaning toward sell, but there is no official position for tomorrow.

Total pips to date: 17
Accuracy: 2/2 100%

****YOU SHOULD NOT TRADE THIS PREDICTION BECAUSE I AM NOT EVEN PUTTING MY OWN MONEY ON IT AND IT'S MY SYSTEM. DO NOT PLACE A TRADE OFF OF THIS INFORMATION. IF YOU DO, IT IS AT YOUR OWN RISK.****

Sorry to type in all caps, but I have to cover myself

I'll be back tomorrow,
andersenws

Wow, just woke up and found the EURUSD in the 1.2730s! Should have executed on that signal I got, but my indicators were indecisive, although for the record, let me quote myself:


Hey, I missed out on a great trade, but I learned more about my system, and exercised a little self-discipline. It's not a bad day.

andersenws

Ok, today's trade, if I would have acted on the (uncertain) signal, would have banked +89 pips. #%$#!!! I need to review how this alters how I interpret my signals, so I will not post a position for tonight. I am in the middle of trying to code this into an EA, so hopefully I can get that done pretty soon. I am going to take tomorrow off, and backtest some more over the weekend. I'll post the results here as they become available.

Again, no official position for tonight, but my signals are leaning towards Sell again.

This week I made +17 pips on 2 successful trades.

Mistakes this week: Human error cost my system a great deal this week. However, it was the first week, so it can only improve from here. My first signal should have been good for +42, but was only good for +16 because of late execution, and some confusion with MT4. The second signal should have implemented a trailing stop, which could have secured +20 or +30 pips, instead of only +1.

Good news this week: 100% percent accuracy (even though it was only two trades ). Not a lot of movement against my position. For example, on my first signal, at worst I was -4, and my second signal at worst was -15, which I guess is not that great, but it is something to work on. Learned more about the system in general, and modified some of the rules for the better.

****YOU SHOULD NOT TRADE THIS PREDICTION BECAUSE I AM NOT EVEN PUTTING MY OWN MONEY ON IT AND IT'S MY SYSTEM. DO NOT PLACE A TRADE OFF OF THIS INFORMATION. IF YOU DO, IT IS AT YOUR OWN RISK.****

Sorry to type in all caps, but I have to cover myself

I'll be back tomorrow,
andersenws

Wow, another great trade that I "officially" didn't take, but my system was leaning towards. It would have been good for +50 pips, but in all honesty, it was what I will call a "weak signal." It was a signal, albeit a weak one.

I have learned a great deal this week about my system, and I know what trades are good, weak, and bad. I really hope, with your guy's help, I can develop this into something great. I am thinking about coding this into an EA for the Automated Trading Championship on the 15th. What do you guys think?

Note: I DO realize this has only been one week of forward testing. I have looked back and seen some losing trades. This is not the Holy Grail, nor do I claim it to be. It is, however, one of the most promising systems I have ever built, and with some good MM built into the EA, I believe it could be very successful, both in Winning% and R:R.

Changes for next week: I am going to force myself to make a solid signal everyday, unless my indicators are completely flat. I will also post a "signal strength" value of strong, moderate, or weak with the signal itself. I will try to eliminate the human error that cost a great deal of pips this week, and I will implement a trailing stop for this system (size of which I will determine this weekend). I know this will be a long process, but I hope to improve it week by week, until I feel confident enough to go live with it.

See you Sunday,
andersenws

I'm just going to post my signal right now because I already know what it will be. This is the second week, and I hope to continue the good rookie perfromance I had last week.

So here it is:
SELL EUR/USD @ 1.2677
Moderate Confidence

Analysis:
I am looking at another down day on Monday, almost textbook signal, although I do believe we will hit a bottom this week before the important data release on Friday. I may not release an official signal on Friday because of the very volatile day expected.


****YOU SHOULD NOT TRADE THIS PREDICTION BECAUSE I AM NOT EVEN PUTTING MY OWN MONEY ON IT AND IT'S MY SYSTEM. DO NOT PLACE A TRADE OFF OF THIS INFORMATION. IF YOU DO, IT IS AT YOUR OWN RISK.****

Sorry to type in all caps, but I have to cover myself

I'll be back on Monday,
andersenws

Ok, so that trade was probably one of my worst, and exposed a kink in my system that needs to be fixed immediately. I ended up +2 pips, closing out at 1.2670. The problem is whether or not I should show a signal for the 3 or 4 hour Sunday "day" in MT4. I profited the +2 in those 3 or 4 hours, but since I forgot there are two signals on Sunday, I missed the reversal I correctly predicted from 1.2669 to 1.2700 or so. So, I will chalk that up as a minor win, and set the schedule for my signals as follows:
Sunday - 1 before open, 1 at 00:00 MT4 time
Monday-Thursday - 1 at 00:00 MT4 time
This will be six signals a week, of which the first may be withheld from time to time just because of the small timeframe with which to work.

So the signal:
I think this reversal will continue for tomorrow, hopefully hitting at least the highs of today (1.2740 area)
BUY EUR/USD @ 1.2703
Moderate-High Confidence
Also, I am instituting putting a stop at B/E when position is +20

***I do not recommend trading off of this advice. These signals are for research purposes only, and any trade placed off of them is at your own risk.***

Be back tomorrow,
andersenws

Ok, so the trade ending today was not a success, rising to set our stop to B/E, then falling at hitting the stop. +0 pips. I think the market is going to range for the rest of the week until the numbers come out on Friday that will tell which way the market will go.

I'm going on vacation towards the end of the week, so this will be all for this week, as I will work out some more of the kinks in the system.

So long, see you next Sunday,
andersenws