Non-Farm Payrolls 1st of SEP

Expected number is around 120K.

I hope a good Deviation will produce enough pips on GBP ( 200) and maybe another 100 in the same direction with ISM coming out.

I haven't seen these two coming out the same time for a while. First day and First friday of month

Hi, I've never traded news but enjoy observing the movements. I was just looking at the EUR/USD chart and there didn't seem to be movement at the time of the announcement at the 5:30 announcement time but about 2 hours later a spike up. Is this showing up on anyone else's charts or is this data error?

geez are we discussing this one already??!?

Are you talking about the Japanese trade? I suppose you live in the Mountain Time Zone or whatever they call it. Not likely that the spike had anything at all to do with anything. Probably just some banks making some bigger moves.

Besides, Japan and EURO news really dont have any great affects on the markets.

yeah its been a while, should be a wild one...

Guess you have mistaken, here are a few <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1lace><st1:City>EURO</st1:City>, <st1:country-region>UK</st1:country-region></st1lace> NEWS which I have massive effects, which have watched for a year now:<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o></o>

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EURO: IFO, ZEW, ECB POLICY <o></o>

UK : PPI( Only with surprise results ) , CPI ( Only With surprise result , Trade Balance , Retail Sales , Unemployment ( Only with Surprise result ) , BOE Rate , BOE Rate , MPC Vote Splits, Helifax House Prices ( Lagging effect ) .

<o></o>

Regards<o></o>

<o></o>

Ganesh <o></o>

<o></o>

Hi don,
I hope you are talking about 1st September.

This month is quite heavy one.
Starting from 1 on NFP and then coming 11.

Hello Guys,

Please donot believe in this but as far as my analysis on number from the past 4 months, i have come to the conlcusion that that NFP would be less than 100K for sure, might be somthing in the range of 75K-90K

I think it should be below 100K for sure.

anyways lets see

Ahmed

Yes i did mean Sept 1 @ 130 K. Some folks say 125K but for me, i think it is <100K. Unless some summer jobs up.

Come on 140k! Pappa needs a new car...

I'm looking for 117K....I'm still looking for a big spike on the GBP....Papa needs a new laptop

lol

I cant wait for this NFP, last time I made 900USD .. I would be happy if I make the same amount this time too...

I need O2 cellphone, I am not a papa; but still MT4 on my cell would give me a lot of mobility.

Purple I'll be pulling for you 'cause I'd be interested in how MT4 performs on a mobile platfor.

Thanks, I will keep you posted once I get one..

I'm a newbie so forgive the question, but...

I understand that the market anticipates these reports, so if it comes in close to the expected result, it has less of an impact, and if it comes in significantly different, it will cause the spikes. So, if the NFP winds up coming in at 100K, that means the economy is weaking, and would cause dollar weakness, correct? Same with it coming in at 140K would cause dollar strength?

I'm not trading this, just trying to understand.

Thanks!

Yup thats it in a nutshell

I have been studying NFP data for a few weeks now and was asking: "Why do we get whipsaws?". Looking at the historic numbers I think I found why.

Here is a compilation of historic numbers from Jan 2006 to Aug 2006:

Can you spot the whipsaws?

Without looking at charts, let me make some predictions:
1. January previous number is 215K; forecast is flat to previous and result was bad. Everyone is convinced that USD was weak. No whipsaw.

2. February previous is 108K; forecast is very good, and actual is better than previous but far below expectation. Some people were dissapointed of the result while some are very satisfied that the result was better than previous month. Whipsaw can occur in this situation.

3. March previous is 193K. Forecast is better than previous number and result came in much better than anticipated. Everyone convinced that US economy is strong. USD rallies.

4. April previous is very good number. Forecast is lower and result is in between. Not everyone is convinced of US strength. Some short, some long. Whipsaw can occur.

5. May previous is good. Expectation is lower than previous and result is much lower than expected. Everyone convinced that US economy is weak. USD fell.

6. June previous is at 138K. Forecast is higher at 180K and actual was way dissapointing! Everyone is very convinced US economy is weak. USD fell.

7. July prevous is very low at 75K, expectation is very good (and ADP added more USD bull). But result was bad. If we were to discount the ADP figure 2 days earlier, there could be a whipsaw. However, the ADP result made a lot of people go USD long and when the official result came out, everyone started packing. USD fell!

8. August previous is 121K. Forecast was 150K and result came in far lower! Everyone is convinced US economy is weak. USD fell. BTW: On a GBPUSd chart, we can see a huge 11 pips move 4 seconds prior to the 8:30. Anyone straddling ±10 pips would have been taken out for a loss immediately.

I made 2 prediction of a whipsaw for Feb and April. Checking the charts reveals im on the dot. So perhaps I cracked it.

For september, we have a previous of 113K. Expectation is 130K (better than previous). What number must we wish to get a good move?
I personally wish that the official number to be either:
a. > 145K to make a very strong USD bull rally, or
b. < 100K to make a very strong USD bear run!

August is the month of vacation in USA. I wonder if that would make a difference? If people are vacationing, will that cause a labor vaccum, therefore hiring is in season? Or does the jobless also go on vacation?

ADP predicts 108K; hmmm... very neutral and prone to whipsaw. Darn! How i wish they just predicted a much lower or much higher number!

You see this is why you're a senior member!

Thanks for the data and effort and definitely spot on with the analysis. Now go figure how the ISM will affect the above scenario?? :

Let me give you a heads up that whipsaws are possible. I especially saw it on the charts when USD is bullish. Here is an example of April 7, 2006.

This is another example of choppy action of the market on Feb 3, 2006.