The Bank, Futures Division - Trading Reports

This is to note down my trades in futures. I am currently using AMP futures as my broker but will be switching over to Tradovate.

1-29-2018 to 1-30-2018 Short Oil - based on prior weekly oil report


1-30-2018 to 1-31-2018 Short Natural Gas - Based on COT producer short:long ratio


1-31-2018 to 2-01-2018 Long Stocks, Short Bonds - Job Forecast seems to be pointing to strong dollar, data later today will also support that. Feds already announced more rate hikes coming, this should tell the market bond market is in bear mode for a while, short rallies.



I may be closing my OANDA account once when I get out of my current position, futures to me are much more fun. Maybe I can use forex as long term trades leave it and come back every month or so.

Subscribed!

And Tradovate looks awesome mate!

02-01-2018 Short Bonds have paid off really well, one thing about futures I noticed is when you are a fundamental medium/long term trader, don't try and scalp against the fundamentals. I noticed that you can get steamed rolled, I had to average down in a previous short CAD, but did get out with a profit.

Also you must commit to any futures trade you make, 1 do not get into many different trade such as long JPY, short Bonds. Reason being is you need enough equity to continue to average down. 2 although futures is fast money it is best to hold longer, I get out way to early, focusing in one market at a time will help with that. did not feel too good today with the pennies I made, left some dollars on the table.

Waiting for the market to set itself up, either I will be shorting more bonds until job # report, or wait that out and start building into long gold, or long currencies.

You can ignore the last picture in the report, here is the updated version that includes today.

Account started with 13.5k ended at 86k withdrew 10k
Breakdown of profits by day reported via metatrader 5
1-29 - $22,630.02
1-30 - $36,747.24
1-31 - $8,851.13
2-01 - $4,425.80

02-02-2018 Current P/L I have on another short bond I shorted some more EUR. Let's see what happens later today.

Ignore previous post picture. Here is the updated version. I was right on shorting bonds and that paid off well. I was right about dollar gaining strength and made a goof amount shorting EUR, JPY, CHF. Currently long in Gold and Silver, although the recent COT report shows a possible dip in price for silver, this should be faded as today's economic report is showing inflation is in full force, especially from the hourly wage growth. Today's P/L total is $84,954.

Account started with 13.5k ended at 160k withdrew 10k and 15k. I am not making any crazy plays I am still sticking to the fundamentals, futures allow me maximize profits. How I should position myself is continue to short bonds, slowly add to gold and silver, and continue to play in the FX market based on weekly events.

02-05-2018 Closed my open trades I had on Friday. I am not going to trade until all of my funds from AMP is moved over to Tradovate, seem like it will take a day. I will soon be long natural gas. If anything I will miss out on shorting AUD later today, oh well.

02-09-2018 This week was a bit volatile even though I knew what was going to happen, I made 60k but gave back 40k and today only made 6k for a total of 26k. The stock market is playing out like i said it would, although analysts on television are pointing to interest rates as the culprit for the stock dive in reality it is in = inflation. I am loading up on gold and silver and other currencies. Tradovate also gives an overall return, so I will post that up weekly. Best bet short treasuries, long JPY, EUR, and Gold.



Total Return so far in Tradovate add up all P/L for AMP futures.

Nice trading!

Whats your logic behind long euro? I understand and agree that demand for yen and gold may go up next week due to the risk-off sentiment by this market correction.
And yes it has been very volatile!

My trade analysis are usually long term holds, of course what you can do is use whatever technical analysis to sort of snowball your account until the trade reverses due to fundamentals. The only technical tool I use is slow stoch and 1 hour, 4 hour, and daily time frame.

What the ECB is doing is bullish for the currency, not bearish. Without giving too much away, here are some obvious.
1) Buying bonds, ECB is buying old bonds that have higher rates than new bonds, limiting the supply of EUR in the economy. supply strangle.
2) Keeping interest rate low, this one is key but the general consensus is money moving in and out more freely. No tariff = demand rises.

3) This was similar to what USD did back during the QE rounds, and the 2014 run, it was more prominent because the dollar is the reserve currency.
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=w1

Combined with low inflation and how predictable Draghi, businesses can make more accurate predictions of the economy with stable prices. Compare that to the USD where yesterday a Fed member said more rates are likely to come this year. Businesses do not like that.

I would not say yeah the EUR is going up next week, but I would say it is a good time to slowly build a position in it. I am horrible at timing but great at managing.

Good to see your point of view.
I must admit that I hold an opposing view. Have been an euro bear and US dollar bull since 2017.

My reasoning is that the Fed is the central bank most ahead in terms of tightening. Back then markets simply did not seem to price in 3 or more rate hikes. It only started to do so recent weeks! Ecb on the other hand has clearly stated that they will not raise interest rate for 2018.
Also, I felt that the US dollar was being oversold back then. Possibly due to the political risks. I deem white house drama as not having much of an impact on the fundamental value of the US dollar. Also, germany has problem with Merkal coalition back then. Adding to the italian elections. Political risks which did not seem to affect the demand for the euro. The combination of the mentioned factors made me feel that markets have overdone the long eurusd pair. Thus Im looking at a pullback towards the mid 1.1s. Hopefully by mid - end 2018.

Although our views on euro dollar are different. I find your view interesting. As I have said before, it is VERY hard to find a fellow fundamentalist on this forum.

Edit: Just to share my trading style since you shared yours. I trade based almost fully of fundamental reasoning. Only using very mild technicals such as SR levels to identify potential TP/SL levels. If given a ratio, I'd prolly say 90% fundie and 10% tech.
Its not that I don't trust technical analysis. But I feel that the retail world relies too much on TA with no valid logic behind why it works.

I agree, people want easy money without the work, I do not mind giving out trades but 1 thing I do mind is impatience, if I hear when or all I see is red then I mind.

I will be honest with some more analysis, the dollar is in a long term down trend, and it will continue to go down especially from here.
1) US imposes more sanctions on random countries, pretty soon an ally of ours working with one of those sanctioned countries may result our ally being sanctioned. We control the SWIFT system for international wires and we control the futures market. Countries and international businesses cannot risk having that. One reason why bitcoin have been going up as they are finding work arounds.
2) Inflation is bad for a currency no matter what analysts says, it means your money buys less. The best indicator is wage growth https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wage-growth
3) Next is the massive government spending, more spending fuels inflation but also growth, with this new spending bill passed I can see US hitting 5-7% growth. But that comes at a cost of losing currency value. 2017 spending was close to that of 2009 and if you look at USD in 2017 all down, so add the already large normal spending with this new spending = much higher inflation. So as investors and traders it is time to go long on Gold.
4) Although there are 2 big reasons to add to this massive downtrend. Dollar is going to 2008 and 2011 levels.

But there are ways around this, long other currencies, long gold, short bonds, short stocks when 10 year interest hits 2.95% or 3%. This rally in the dollar is the market setting up one of the biggest trade of a lifetime for us.

Note on #3 you will see indices grind down slowly but individual stocks will outperform. Sorry but no more easy trade with etfs. Similar to 1970s, and so much similar to when Kennedy took office, it is possible that we give back the trump bump, but you better buy right after.

02-11-2018 Update, exiting out of currency pairs, for now. Going to front run long GBP this week. Longing USD for a bit but will most likely turn position around Thursday or Friday.

Oil Report is quite difficult to read this week. Need more data but from COT report -50k we might get a good bounce back up.

02-12-2018 updated.

02-13-2018 Here is an update. Exited GBP from front run. Getting into oil before API report. waiting for tomorrow to short bonds again.

02-14-2018 Market played out as expected: short bonds, short stocks. Right after I got in long commodities. Got back in shorting the S&P, we still have tomorrow's PPI number. Slowly building up commodities and other currencies again, most likely NZD and JPY but on weakness.

02-14-2018 I was able to get recover all of the short EUR with a profit of $800s. I am very surprised that EUR is going up now, I thought it would after this week given the USD data, perhaps tomorrow USD will get strong again.

I am also surprised that a lot of people come here to learn how to trade. I thought this was just a bragging forum. So I will give out a few materials that helped me get to a very high win rate.
part 1
http://neweconomicperspectives.org/2...ed-part-1.html
part 2
http://neweconomicperspectives.org/2...ed-part-2.html

Finally, I might as well defend my next trade: long natural gas. From the US gov itself, we are at the bottom of the 5 year average. 2 things that also stands out is the forecast is kind of high, which lead me to assume that analyst in wall street comes up with this one. This is confirmed with I look at the COT report and see that swap are long natural gas AND producers did not change in net position. But you will see other reportable very net short, meaning it is some guy with deep pockets trying to squeeze. Fundamentally given the report from the government and the deregulation of energy, natural gas is going up.

1. Gov report, look at where the blue line is
http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
2. Inventory report, high forecast
https://www.investing.com/economic-c...as-storage-386
3. Commitment of traders
https://www.tradingster.com/cot/futures/disagg/023651

if the forecast hits = good to hold until end of march, if it does not, I hope you guys have deep pockets like me to ride it out.

02-15-2018 The taken loss in AUD and CAD was from front running. Ignore those. As I suspected with natural gas, right when the number came out for the inventory report it exploded but then it crashed down. This is from the guy with deep pockets - I think I may know who this hedge fund guy is. I was up 7k then all the way down to -12k. Now end of day it reversed and only down 2k, he is covering his short position before end of day. Natural gas will soon explode up, never go against the fundamentals. (Unless you are front running, haha)

202-16-2018 Today I unleashed some holdings because of the initial margin requirement. 2 things played out today, I got hopefully stubborn and greedy. i was long EUR last night, front running the news, it came out good and was up 7k should have exit then but didn't because of my greed. Either way learning lesson to exit faster in futures.

Here is my performance for the week. You can noticed on the bottom right hand corner it said 162k but then dipped. That shall be burned on me forever until I fill the dip with more profits. Also anyone in natural gas you must hold the contango is over. http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/ener...tural-gas.html. All future prices are above current contract prices.

Another lesson in shorting this dollar rally. When you ask an analyst what is gold, they will say it is an inflation protector. Then you ask a trader when inflation numbers comes out what do you do? They say you short gold and long the currency.... Do you see the fallacy in this? Remember this fundamental principal when trading. Remember inflation is bad for a currency no matter what anyone says because it means your money is losing purchasing power.

This is for the month so far. My win rate is much higher, it is just the fact that my "feeler" position always gets exited with a tiny loss and that counts against me. I usually pyramid my positions or double down. Reason being is I have the fundamentals on my side and that the market likes to be crazy.

Example of how I pyramid my positions in forex - EUR/USD long, 10k, -30 pips, 25k, -60 pips, 50k. Then all reverses course and I take home a big amount. I hate pyramiding into a profitable position because I do not know how to manage profitable trades. I know how to manage bad trades because they were never bad or wrong to begin with.

Hi,

do you think the FED could surprise and not hike in march?