European Economy
European Economy is going to word of Recession if ECB will not change its tone of Inflation fighting and which is indicator of raising interest rate and if we see the confidence of companies of European they all facing slowdown and they all losing confidence and also mostly announcement of profit or earning are reduce and they said they will never will hair more worker in future if we see DHIK index please see announcement of DHIK its biggest Group its presenting more then 350000 European companies index The share of managers who expect business to improve in the next 12 months fell to 26 percent from 28 percent last October, the DIHK lobby said in a semi-annual survey of more than 25,000 companies published today. The number of respondents bracing for a decline in business rose to 16 percent from 13 percent.
The survey, with 71 percent of respondents in services and industry, suggests companies may reduce hiring this year. Twenty-one percent of businesses plan to take on staff, down from 22 percent four months ago, while 14 percent said they'll cut payrolls compared with 13 percent in October.
So the boom of jobs market is over now and we can expect the unemployment rate will raise again and the strike for wages will never favor will be labors union and ECB is waiting for Positive response from Companies Side and positive increase in wages for fighting with inflation and economy growth will continue with out effecting from USA slow down and not effect of Raising of cridet cost all over the world but that announcement or confidence report from DHIK indicating they will never hire more index showed and index showed companies will cut jobs .
DHIK The number of companies that expect exports to increase declined to 44 percent of survey respondents from 45 percent in October. Eight percent of companies expect exports to decline compared with 6 percent four months ago.
And that is true because today data of trade balance showing us slow down in Export due to raising of Euro/USD exchange rate which is today at 1.4669 accourding to 6:10 pm of Pakistan Standerd time and today Trade Balance is -2.1B and forcast was 2.5B and Previous reading was 2 B so that is indicator fro ECB to cut rate and if you look it to Banking Industry now they are announcing loss today Citi Group pridect that UBS will announce more then 18.3 B losses and keep in mind UBS has been announced $17B and other bank which have been announce loss including Socite General SA Franc biggest bank showing its history biggest losses which $10.3 B ,IKB Industrial Bank of Germany declear losses which was round about $13 to $15 B and now Merkal Govt. have spot program and announce Govt.will paid $2.2B and privet companies will paid $2.2 B to restart its opration ,(German Finance Minster interview German private banks will contribute to a government-led 1.5 billion-euro ($2.2 billion) bailout for IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG, the German bank reeling from U.S. subprime investments, Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck said. )
Deuch Bank AG German bank and biggest Bank of currency trader of world announce $17B and Duch Bank AG announce to cut its 250 jobs .And other Financial companies losses are panding or you cab say they are waiting
Natixis SA, the French investment bank formed in a 2006 merger, had a record decline in Paris trading after saying it would write down an additional 817 million euros ($1.2 billion) related to subprime assets and 380 million euros linked to troubled U.S. bond insurers.
.Becouse ECB waiting to positive response from companies if companies will response positive for wages then Financial crisis can remove because peoples of European area I mean 15 Nation which sharing Euro as currency got more money and will paid bad debit and bank will running again with out effecting USA crisis and peoples will paid mortgage payment and bank will never facing problem and never will face Lending default But DHIK sarvy showed us ECB will fouces on cutting rate in the future Becouse of Companies losing confidence on economy whole world facing inflation rate problem due to raising of commodity prices like oil ,gold etc.then how can you say you will never effect from slowdown of world .
IMF
The International Monetary Fund in January lowered its forecast for global economic growth this year to 4.1 percent, the lowest since 2003, from 4.4 percent predicted in October. The IMF said last year's increase in credit costs resulting from defaults on mortgages aimed at borrowers with poor credit histories is hurting the rest of the economy.
Bloomberg Global Confidence Index
Global Confidence by Division
Confidence in the global economy fell for a third month in February as the slowdown in the U.S. spread to Europe and Japan, a survey of Bloomberg users on five continents showed.
The Bloomberg Professional Global Confidence Index fell to 14.3 from 21.0 in January. Users in Asia were the most pessimistic about the global economy, with the index falling to 12.6 from 15.0. A reading below 50 indicates negative sentiment.
The Bloomberg Professional Confidence Survey collated the responses of 6,878 Bloomberg users from Auckland to New York on the economic health of their region and the world. The survey was conducted from Feb. 4 to Feb. 8. The investors, traders and analysts were also asked about the outlook for their currencies, bonds, stocks and rates in the next 6 months. Participants answered questions in cities including Hong Kong, Zurich and London.
North American users were the most pessimistic about economic growth in their region, with the index falling to 19.3 from 19.6. Home sales in the world's largest economy fell at the fastest pace since at least 1963. While users in Asia were the least pessimistic, the index suffered the sharpest deterioration, falling to 43.5 from 51.1.
In Europe, sentiment toward the world economy dropped to 12.9 from 17.3. Participants there also soured on their own economy, pushing the regional index down to 26.2 from 27.3.
European Economy Export Base economy and if whole world losing confidence then where they will sold their goods and Exchange rate of Euro/USD make European goods costly for whole world and USA goods will attract the world as compare to European goods its point who will get benefit of this ? USA or European ? trade Balance telling us .
Confidence of European
European investor confidence fell in February for an eighth month and reached the lowest level in 2 1/2 years, led by a drop in the current economic assessment.
An index measuring sentiment in the euro region fell to 4.3, the lowest since July 2005, from 8.2 in January, the Limburg, Germany-based Sentix research institute said in a statement Feb.4 2008. Economists expected a drop to 5.7, according to the median of eight forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey.
A gauge of current business conditions in the euro region fell to 28.75, the lowest level since January 2006, from 36 in the previous month. The measure of expectations declined to an all-time low of minus 17.50 from minus 16.25 in January.
The monthly survey of about 2,600 investors, which isn't adjusted for seasonal changes, was conducted Jan. 31 to Feb. 2. The results are never revised.
Confidence among European executives and consumers fell more than economists forecast as inflation accelerated and U.S. growth slowed.
An index of sentiment in the euro area dropped to 101.7 this month, the lowest since January 2006, from a revised 103.4 in December, the European Commission in Brussels said Feb3, 2008. The inflation rate rose to 3.2 percent, the highest in 14 years, a separate report showed.
And due to inflation rate raise its highest level of European Area eating European Peoples too and we have to seen Retail sale data which was indicating down word since 4 month
And spending fell in European area .
Retail Sale
European retail sales fell by a record in December as soaring food and energy prices and increased credit costs prompted consumers to curtail their Christmas spending.
Retail sales in the euro area declined 2 percent from a year earlier, the biggest drop since the data series began in 1995, the European Union's statistics office in Luxembourg said Feb.3,2008 . Economists had forecast a 0.8 percent drop, according to the median of 19 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Sales fell 0.1 percent from the prior month.
PMI of Services and Manufacturing
Europe's service industries grew at the weakest pace in more than four years, as the possibility of a recession in the U.S. weighs on the European expansion.
Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc's services index dropped to 50.6, the lowest since July 2003, from 53.1 in December, Reuters Plc reported. A reading above 50 indicates growth
According to my thought Services Industry will fell from growth level which is 50 and now index of services on divided line of Growth and Contrction .
The national services indexes fell across the board with Germany's slumping below the 50 threshold for the first time in 4 1/2 years and Spain's service sector shrinking the most since 1999. A composite measure for the euro region fell to 51.8 from 52.7 the previous month, according to the report, which is based on a survey of purchasing managers by NTC
European manufacturing expanded more than initially estimated in January, signaling that the economy of the 15-nation euro area can cope with a U.S.-led global slowdown.
Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc's manufacturing index rose to 52.8, Reuters Plc reported, above an initial estimate of 52.6 from Jan. 4. A reading above 50 indicates growth.
CAR SALE
European monthly car sales fell in January, led by Toyota Motor Corp. and General Motors Corp., as concern that economies are slowing prompted consumers to cut spending and France imposed an emissions tax on larger cars.
New car registrations declined 0.3 percent last month to 1.31 million vehicles, the Brussels-based European Automobile Manufacturers Association said today in a statement. Sales in Italy and France, Europe's second- and third-largest markets, fell 7.3 percent and 5.6 percent, respectively. German registrations rebounded 11 percent.
Purchases at Toyota, the world's second-largest carmaker, dropped 11 percent to 75,801 vehicles. The Toyota City, Japan- based carmaker's European market share declined to 5.8 percent from 6.5 percent.
Registrations in the region by Detroit-based General Motors, the world's largest automaker, fell 8.1 percent to 124,219 vehicles, while its market share dropped to 9.5 percent from 10.3. Ford Motor Co., which ranks third in the region, recorded a 3.5 percent slide to 141,572 vehicles.
Sales by Wolfsburg, Germany-based Volkswagen, Europe's largest carmaker, added 0.6 percent to 246,741 vehicles, as an advance at the namesake brand more than offset a 5.7 percent decline at the carmaker's Audi luxury unit. Volkswagen's market share was 18.9 percent, up 0.2 percentage points.
European registrations at Paris-based PSA Peugeot Citroen, which ranks second in the region, dropped 3.2 percent in January to 170,381 vehicles.
Fiat SpA's sales declined 0.9 percent to 111,896 units, as a 6.7 percent increase at the namesake brand was more than offset by a 43 percent drop at the Alfa Romeo unit following a two-month shutdown of a plant near Naples, Italy. The Turin, Italy-based carmaker's European market share declined to 8.5 percent from 8.6 percent.
Sales in Germany, Europe's largest market, rose to 220,742 cars in January, the second-highest monthly volume in the past five years, after a sales tax increase discouraged buyers in the year-earlier month, the association said.
Sales by Daimler AG, the world's second-largest maker of luxury cars, increased 7.7 percent to 69,219 vehicles, led by a 51 percent jump at the Smart brand. Daimler's Mercedes-Benz Cars division, the world's second-largest maker of luxury vehicles, posted a 4.3 percent increase to registrations on demand for new C-Class and Smart microcar models.
Renault's registrations advanced 0.4 percent to 108,650 vehicles, led by a 74 percent surge at the Dacia brand. The division makes the Logan car, a model priced as low as 7,200 euros in Germany.
The carmakers association figures include 25 of the European Union's 27 members, plus Iceland, Norway and Switzerland. Demand in eastern Europe rose 20 percent, in contrast to a 1.7 percent drop in the west.
Bayerische Motoren Werke AG, the world's biggest luxury-car maker, posted a 13 percent sales increase to 64,888 vehicles, led by a 34 percent jump in sales at the Mini small-car brand following the introduction of a new model. European sales at Munich-based BMW's namesake brand rose 9.1 percent, helped by the new X5 sport-utility vehicle.
FIANAL THOUGHT
According to my thought
1- Unemployment rate will rise in European countries (E-15).
2-Sevices Industry will fell in Recession I mean fell down to 50 Growth Level and will cuts more jobs in coming days.
3-Manufacturing will also fell down to 50 growth level and cuts jobs and Keep in mind Germany manufactured contributed in Growth more then 26%, Italy more then 16% ,France more then 18 % .And Germany is largest Exporter of world .
4-Spending will reduce in coming days.
5-ECB must be cut interest rate in its next meeting and I am still waiting emergency cutting of interest rate . interest rate will be at 2.5 % to 3% at the end of this year and Euro rate will be at 1.3800 in 3rd Q.
Faiz Rasool
European Economy is going to word of Recession if ECB will not change its tone of Inflation fighting and which is indicator of raising interest rate and if we see the confidence of companies of European they all facing slowdown and they all losing confidence and also mostly announcement of profit or earning are reduce and they said they will never will hair more worker in future if we see DHIK index please see announcement of DHIK its biggest Group its presenting more then 350000 European companies index The share of managers who expect business to improve in the next 12 months fell to 26 percent from 28 percent last October, the DIHK lobby said in a semi-annual survey of more than 25,000 companies published today. The number of respondents bracing for a decline in business rose to 16 percent from 13 percent.
The survey, with 71 percent of respondents in services and industry, suggests companies may reduce hiring this year. Twenty-one percent of businesses plan to take on staff, down from 22 percent four months ago, while 14 percent said they'll cut payrolls compared with 13 percent in October.
So the boom of jobs market is over now and we can expect the unemployment rate will raise again and the strike for wages will never favor will be labors union and ECB is waiting for Positive response from Companies Side and positive increase in wages for fighting with inflation and economy growth will continue with out effecting from USA slow down and not effect of Raising of cridet cost all over the world but that announcement or confidence report from DHIK indicating they will never hire more index showed and index showed companies will cut jobs .
DHIK The number of companies that expect exports to increase declined to 44 percent of survey respondents from 45 percent in October. Eight percent of companies expect exports to decline compared with 6 percent four months ago.
And that is true because today data of trade balance showing us slow down in Export due to raising of Euro/USD exchange rate which is today at 1.4669 accourding to 6:10 pm of Pakistan Standerd time and today Trade Balance is -2.1B and forcast was 2.5B and Previous reading was 2 B so that is indicator fro ECB to cut rate and if you look it to Banking Industry now they are announcing loss today Citi Group pridect that UBS will announce more then 18.3 B losses and keep in mind UBS has been announced $17B and other bank which have been announce loss including Socite General SA Franc biggest bank showing its history biggest losses which $10.3 B ,IKB Industrial Bank of Germany declear losses which was round about $13 to $15 B and now Merkal Govt. have spot program and announce Govt.will paid $2.2B and privet companies will paid $2.2 B to restart its opration ,(German Finance Minster interview German private banks will contribute to a government-led 1.5 billion-euro ($2.2 billion) bailout for IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG, the German bank reeling from U.S. subprime investments, Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck said. )
Deuch Bank AG German bank and biggest Bank of currency trader of world announce $17B and Duch Bank AG announce to cut its 250 jobs .And other Financial companies losses are panding or you cab say they are waiting
Natixis SA, the French investment bank formed in a 2006 merger, had a record decline in Paris trading after saying it would write down an additional 817 million euros ($1.2 billion) related to subprime assets and 380 million euros linked to troubled U.S. bond insurers.
.Becouse ECB waiting to positive response from companies if companies will response positive for wages then Financial crisis can remove because peoples of European area I mean 15 Nation which sharing Euro as currency got more money and will paid bad debit and bank will running again with out effecting USA crisis and peoples will paid mortgage payment and bank will never facing problem and never will face Lending default But DHIK sarvy showed us ECB will fouces on cutting rate in the future Becouse of Companies losing confidence on economy whole world facing inflation rate problem due to raising of commodity prices like oil ,gold etc.then how can you say you will never effect from slowdown of world .
IMF
The International Monetary Fund in January lowered its forecast for global economic growth this year to 4.1 percent, the lowest since 2003, from 4.4 percent predicted in October. The IMF said last year's increase in credit costs resulting from defaults on mortgages aimed at borrowers with poor credit histories is hurting the rest of the economy.
Bloomberg Global Confidence Index
Global Confidence by Division
Confidence in the global economy fell for a third month in February as the slowdown in the U.S. spread to Europe and Japan, a survey of Bloomberg users on five continents showed.
The Bloomberg Professional Global Confidence Index fell to 14.3 from 21.0 in January. Users in Asia were the most pessimistic about the global economy, with the index falling to 12.6 from 15.0. A reading below 50 indicates negative sentiment.
The Bloomberg Professional Confidence Survey collated the responses of 6,878 Bloomberg users from Auckland to New York on the economic health of their region and the world. The survey was conducted from Feb. 4 to Feb. 8. The investors, traders and analysts were also asked about the outlook for their currencies, bonds, stocks and rates in the next 6 months. Participants answered questions in cities including Hong Kong, Zurich and London.
North American users were the most pessimistic about economic growth in their region, with the index falling to 19.3 from 19.6. Home sales in the world's largest economy fell at the fastest pace since at least 1963. While users in Asia were the least pessimistic, the index suffered the sharpest deterioration, falling to 43.5 from 51.1.
In Europe, sentiment toward the world economy dropped to 12.9 from 17.3. Participants there also soured on their own economy, pushing the regional index down to 26.2 from 27.3.
European Economy Export Base economy and if whole world losing confidence then where they will sold their goods and Exchange rate of Euro/USD make European goods costly for whole world and USA goods will attract the world as compare to European goods its point who will get benefit of this ? USA or European ? trade Balance telling us .
Confidence of European
European investor confidence fell in February for an eighth month and reached the lowest level in 2 1/2 years, led by a drop in the current economic assessment.
An index measuring sentiment in the euro region fell to 4.3, the lowest since July 2005, from 8.2 in January, the Limburg, Germany-based Sentix research institute said in a statement Feb.4 2008. Economists expected a drop to 5.7, according to the median of eight forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey.
A gauge of current business conditions in the euro region fell to 28.75, the lowest level since January 2006, from 36 in the previous month. The measure of expectations declined to an all-time low of minus 17.50 from minus 16.25 in January.
The monthly survey of about 2,600 investors, which isn't adjusted for seasonal changes, was conducted Jan. 31 to Feb. 2. The results are never revised.
Confidence among European executives and consumers fell more than economists forecast as inflation accelerated and U.S. growth slowed.
An index of sentiment in the euro area dropped to 101.7 this month, the lowest since January 2006, from a revised 103.4 in December, the European Commission in Brussels said Feb3, 2008. The inflation rate rose to 3.2 percent, the highest in 14 years, a separate report showed.
And due to inflation rate raise its highest level of European Area eating European Peoples too and we have to seen Retail sale data which was indicating down word since 4 month
And spending fell in European area .
Retail Sale
European retail sales fell by a record in December as soaring food and energy prices and increased credit costs prompted consumers to curtail their Christmas spending.
Retail sales in the euro area declined 2 percent from a year earlier, the biggest drop since the data series began in 1995, the European Union's statistics office in Luxembourg said Feb.3,2008 . Economists had forecast a 0.8 percent drop, according to the median of 19 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Sales fell 0.1 percent from the prior month.
PMI of Services and Manufacturing
Europe's service industries grew at the weakest pace in more than four years, as the possibility of a recession in the U.S. weighs on the European expansion.
Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc's services index dropped to 50.6, the lowest since July 2003, from 53.1 in December, Reuters Plc reported. A reading above 50 indicates growth
According to my thought Services Industry will fell from growth level which is 50 and now index of services on divided line of Growth and Contrction .
The national services indexes fell across the board with Germany's slumping below the 50 threshold for the first time in 4 1/2 years and Spain's service sector shrinking the most since 1999. A composite measure for the euro region fell to 51.8 from 52.7 the previous month, according to the report, which is based on a survey of purchasing managers by NTC
European manufacturing expanded more than initially estimated in January, signaling that the economy of the 15-nation euro area can cope with a U.S.-led global slowdown.
Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc's manufacturing index rose to 52.8, Reuters Plc reported, above an initial estimate of 52.6 from Jan. 4. A reading above 50 indicates growth.
CAR SALE
European monthly car sales fell in January, led by Toyota Motor Corp. and General Motors Corp., as concern that economies are slowing prompted consumers to cut spending and France imposed an emissions tax on larger cars.
New car registrations declined 0.3 percent last month to 1.31 million vehicles, the Brussels-based European Automobile Manufacturers Association said today in a statement. Sales in Italy and France, Europe's second- and third-largest markets, fell 7.3 percent and 5.6 percent, respectively. German registrations rebounded 11 percent.
Purchases at Toyota, the world's second-largest carmaker, dropped 11 percent to 75,801 vehicles. The Toyota City, Japan- based carmaker's European market share declined to 5.8 percent from 6.5 percent.
Registrations in the region by Detroit-based General Motors, the world's largest automaker, fell 8.1 percent to 124,219 vehicles, while its market share dropped to 9.5 percent from 10.3. Ford Motor Co., which ranks third in the region, recorded a 3.5 percent slide to 141,572 vehicles.
Sales by Wolfsburg, Germany-based Volkswagen, Europe's largest carmaker, added 0.6 percent to 246,741 vehicles, as an advance at the namesake brand more than offset a 5.7 percent decline at the carmaker's Audi luxury unit. Volkswagen's market share was 18.9 percent, up 0.2 percentage points.
European registrations at Paris-based PSA Peugeot Citroen, which ranks second in the region, dropped 3.2 percent in January to 170,381 vehicles.
Fiat SpA's sales declined 0.9 percent to 111,896 units, as a 6.7 percent increase at the namesake brand was more than offset by a 43 percent drop at the Alfa Romeo unit following a two-month shutdown of a plant near Naples, Italy. The Turin, Italy-based carmaker's European market share declined to 8.5 percent from 8.6 percent.
Sales in Germany, Europe's largest market, rose to 220,742 cars in January, the second-highest monthly volume in the past five years, after a sales tax increase discouraged buyers in the year-earlier month, the association said.
Sales by Daimler AG, the world's second-largest maker of luxury cars, increased 7.7 percent to 69,219 vehicles, led by a 51 percent jump at the Smart brand. Daimler's Mercedes-Benz Cars division, the world's second-largest maker of luxury vehicles, posted a 4.3 percent increase to registrations on demand for new C-Class and Smart microcar models.
Renault's registrations advanced 0.4 percent to 108,650 vehicles, led by a 74 percent surge at the Dacia brand. The division makes the Logan car, a model priced as low as 7,200 euros in Germany.
The carmakers association figures include 25 of the European Union's 27 members, plus Iceland, Norway and Switzerland. Demand in eastern Europe rose 20 percent, in contrast to a 1.7 percent drop in the west.
Bayerische Motoren Werke AG, the world's biggest luxury-car maker, posted a 13 percent sales increase to 64,888 vehicles, led by a 34 percent jump in sales at the Mini small-car brand following the introduction of a new model. European sales at Munich-based BMW's namesake brand rose 9.1 percent, helped by the new X5 sport-utility vehicle.
FIANAL THOUGHT
According to my thought
1- Unemployment rate will rise in European countries (E-15).
2-Sevices Industry will fell in Recession I mean fell down to 50 Growth Level and will cuts more jobs in coming days.
3-Manufacturing will also fell down to 50 growth level and cuts jobs and Keep in mind Germany manufactured contributed in Growth more then 26%, Italy more then 16% ,France more then 18 % .And Germany is largest Exporter of world .
4-Spending will reduce in coming days.
5-ECB must be cut interest rate in its next meeting and I am still waiting emergency cutting of interest rate . interest rate will be at 2.5 % to 3% at the end of this year and Euro rate will be at 1.3800 in 3rd Q.
Faiz Rasool
