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- Post #12,521
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- Mar 19, 2024 6:36am Mar 19, 2024 6:36am
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,787 Posts
- Post #12,522
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Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management | Page 400 | Forex Factory
UPDATE: 17 Forex Trades done and closed. Net Profit : $11,936.66 US Dollars.
3 Open Trades as you can see from my SCREENSHOT.
Bruce
From Earlier today WITH REASON...
Good morning Forex Traders
Mar 19, 2020 9:37:31 PM
Hello Forex Traders
I have a new student and is first name is Oliver. I opened this $50,000 FXCM UK Demo account in Turks & Caicos to get maximum leverage.
I am waiting for my associate to post here.
My goal is to double this account to $100,000 US Dollars in 28 days. I enjoy challenges.
For my students, all that they need to do is a 5% increase over 30 days for three months in a row !!! In other words bring the account to $57,5000 US Dollars
BWM - Forex Trader & Teacher
I created this $50,000 US Dollars FXCM UK Demo account on the date shown above.
I have made 14 successful Forex trades from March 20, 2020 until now that I have closed.
The locked in Net Profit is $8163.56 US Dollars.
I have two open Forex trades that I put on this morning as you can clearly see from my SCREENSHOTS !!!
BWM
March 24, 2020 11:02 NOTE: My last teaching post here will be on April 1, 2020. This is also known as April Fools Day !!!
There is no more point to post here as not one person has the brains or discipline or WORD to trade Forex successfully based on the posts here even after the results are shown.
Bruce
UPDATE: 17 Forex Trades done and closed. Net Profit : $11,936.66 US Dollars.
3 Open Trades as you can see from my SCREENSHOT.
Bruce
From Earlier today WITH REASON...
Good morning Forex Traders
Mar 19, 2020 9:37:31 PM
Hello Forex Traders
I have a new student and is first name is Oliver. I opened this $50,000 FXCM UK Demo account in Turks & Caicos to get maximum leverage.
I am waiting for my associate to post here.
My goal is to double this account to $100,000 US Dollars in 28 days. I enjoy challenges.
For my students, all that they need to do is a 5% increase over 30 days for three months in a row !!! In other words bring the account to $57,5000 US Dollars
BWM - Forex Trader & Teacher
I created this $50,000 US Dollars FXCM UK Demo account on the date shown above.
I have made 14 successful Forex trades from March 20, 2020 until now that I have closed.
The locked in Net Profit is $8163.56 US Dollars.
I have two open Forex trades that I put on this morning as you can clearly see from my SCREENSHOTS !!!
BWM
March 24, 2020 11:02 NOTE: My last teaching post here will be on April 1, 2020. This is also known as April Fools Day !!!
There is no more point to post here as not one person has the brains or discipline or WORD to trade Forex successfully based on the posts here even after the results are shown.
Bruce
- Post #12,524
- Quote
- Mar 19, 2024 7:01am Mar 19, 2024 7:01am
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,787 Posts
https://goldswitzerland.com/swiss-go...-paper-market/
SWISS GOLD REFINERS CEASE PRODUCTION – END OF PAPER MARKET
March 24, 2020
by Egon von Greyerz
The Swiss Canton of Ticino, in the Italian part of Switzerland, has just ordered the gold refiners based there to close, initially to March 29th but this is expected to be extended. Three of the world’s largest refiners – Argor, Valcambi and PAMP are based in Ticino. We are likely to see major pressure on the gold and silver paper market. More later in this article.
WHO WILL PAY? – THE PRINTING PRESS, STUPID
The world will now see massive handouts to individuals and corporations, rescues of over-leveraged banks and hedge funds plus rapidly surging government deficits. But Who is going to pay for it? The printing press – stupid! Who else. The printing press has got the world into this financial disaster in the first place and all that is needed now is to speed it up 100x or more.
But who is controlling the printing press? That is an irresponsible elite of central bankers, the Deep State and governments who have all benefitted from the biggest financial bubble in history.
CENTRAL BANKS TOLD US ABOUT THE CRISIS BACK IN AUG-SEP.
The first signals of the latest crisis in the financial system was clear in Aug-Sep when first the ECB said they will take whatever measures necessary and the Fed started desperate money printing that one Fed governor called plumbing and not QE. Of course it was plumbing since the system was leaking like a sieve. I wrote at the time that what will happen next will be as momentous for the world as Nixon closing the gold window in 1971. And here we are 6 months later with the Fed’s balance sheet having expanded by almost $1 trillion. In addition all central banks and governments are now committing trillions to prop up failing economies and a collapsing financial system.
EUROPE IN LOCKDOWN
Most European economies are now at a standstill. Shops, hotels, restaurants, bars, most offices and many factories now closed. Virtually all European car manufacturing has come to a halt. The airline and tourist industry is collapsing and most small businesses haven’t got cash flow for more than a couple of weeks.
It is an unbelievably tragic catastrophe which is now hitting the world. I have talked about the coming collapse of the world economy for many years and done my best to tell people to protect themselves. Sadly, most people believe that good times will go on forever. Therefore the coming economic downturn will shock the world.
Although, there is always a catalyst for a downturn, the world could not have been hit by a worse trigger. The biggest economic downturn in history was due anyway.
Global money printing will increase to $10s and $100s of trillions and when the derivative bubble blows up, it will reach $ quadrillions. There can be no other outcome.
STOCKS WILL GO DOWN BY 90% FASTER THAN IN 1929-32
In 1929, it took the Dow 2 1/2 years to go down by 90% and the depression lasted for many years. This time because of Coronavirus (CV), the collapse will be very fast. It could all happen in 9-18 months. By that time the financial system will be unrecognisable or nonexistent. All the printed money will be valued at its intrinsic value of zero. And so will all the assets that were bought or created by this printed money. Stocks will be down 99% and most bonds down by 100%.
But even if markets will collapse very quickly, the world economy will go along the bottom for years and maybe decades.
Investors in property live under the false impression that bricks and mortar will always have a value. Sadly that won’t be the case. If there are no tenants or if they don’t pay the rent, the properties will be almost worthless. I have already heard from friends in the property business who say that the tenants can’t pay the rent. Governments in some countries have promised to help out with rent. But that help will consist of worthless printed money and therefore only have a very short term effect as its value declines daily. If printed money was wealth, we could all stop working.
FAKE MONEY, FAKE VALUATIONS, FAKE MARKETS
So we are now entering the end of a 100 year phase of fake money, fake valuations, fake markets and unlimited debt, all leading to the biggest bubble in history. This has also led to false ethical and moral values and the breakup of family values. Too many people have been chasing the golden calf or material values.
What makes the coming period particularly difficult is the combination of CV hitting many people combined with severe financial pressures. A very big percentage of the population will experience extremely hard times both physically and financially.
HOSPITALS FIGHTING A DESPERATE BATTLE WITH CV
As we have seen in many European countries, there are not enough intensive care units or ventilators even for a fraction of the patients who need it. Doctors and medical staff, in for example Italy or the UK, are fighting a desperate but losing battle and still working around the clock. Many elderly and severely ill people are not even admitted since there is no room and they are left to die.
The situation is made even worse because most governments have waited far too long to take strong action. If you listened to most leaders of state in Europe and the US, everyone thought that they had it under control and their country wouldn’t be severely affected. And then for every day that passed, they gradually changed the tone as they realised that their country would be hit badly too. All a country needed to do is to look at Italy where CV started only a few weeks ago but sadly is still growing exponentially. Just Saturday there were 800 fatalities making almost 5,000 total deaths. Other countries can just with some delay extrapolate Italy’s figures to forecast what will hit them. Also, in many countries the population is not taking the advice or instructions seriously and openly mixing with other people.
No one can tell how long this will last. Observers on the ground in China are saying that CV is still growing there as opposed to official government information. Some people are saying that it could last for 6 months or more and this doesn’t seem unlikely.
THE WORLD ECONOMY COULD DISAPPEAR IN A BLACK HOLE
If the economy closed for more than 6 months with most people not working and major parts of the manufacturing sector closed, then both the economy and the financial system will disappear in a black hole. Governments will have some very difficult choices in the next few weeks and months – the survival of people against the survival of the economy.
Looking at markets, the bull market is over and whatever outcome we will see of CV and government actions, the world is now entering a severe secular bear market which will be long lasting. All bubble assets, stocks, bonds and property will decline by 90% or more.
All major countries led by the Fed, the ECB, the IMF, BOJ, PBOC etc will print unlimited amounts of money. All currencies will decline by 100% as they finish the race to the bottom to their intrinsic value of ZERO. We will soon see high inflation, quickly leading to hyperinflation.
PAPER GOLD MARKET WILL COLLAPSE
Gold and other precious metals will maintain their purchasing power and most likely much more than that as the huge and manipulated paper market in gold and silver collapses. Comex and other futures exchanges will default combined with the whole LBMA system of bullion banks.
There is very strong demand for gold and especially silver currently. Small dealers are out of stock of most items. Bigger buyers like ourselves can still get hold of gold from the refiners but for silver there is a delay of a couple of weeks currently.
So there are many factors which will be extremely favourable for the precious metals:
SWISS GOLD REFINERS CEASE PRODUCTION – END OF PAPER MARKET
March 24, 2020
by Egon von Greyerz
The Swiss Canton of Ticino, in the Italian part of Switzerland, has just ordered the gold refiners based there to close, initially to March 29th but this is expected to be extended. Three of the world’s largest refiners – Argor, Valcambi and PAMP are based in Ticino. We are likely to see major pressure on the gold and silver paper market. More later in this article.
WHO WILL PAY? – THE PRINTING PRESS, STUPID
The world will now see massive handouts to individuals and corporations, rescues of over-leveraged banks and hedge funds plus rapidly surging government deficits. But Who is going to pay for it? The printing press – stupid! Who else. The printing press has got the world into this financial disaster in the first place and all that is needed now is to speed it up 100x or more.
But who is controlling the printing press? That is an irresponsible elite of central bankers, the Deep State and governments who have all benefitted from the biggest financial bubble in history.
CENTRAL BANKS TOLD US ABOUT THE CRISIS BACK IN AUG-SEP.
The first signals of the latest crisis in the financial system was clear in Aug-Sep when first the ECB said they will take whatever measures necessary and the Fed started desperate money printing that one Fed governor called plumbing and not QE. Of course it was plumbing since the system was leaking like a sieve. I wrote at the time that what will happen next will be as momentous for the world as Nixon closing the gold window in 1971. And here we are 6 months later with the Fed’s balance sheet having expanded by almost $1 trillion. In addition all central banks and governments are now committing trillions to prop up failing economies and a collapsing financial system.
EUROPE IN LOCKDOWN
Most European economies are now at a standstill. Shops, hotels, restaurants, bars, most offices and many factories now closed. Virtually all European car manufacturing has come to a halt. The airline and tourist industry is collapsing and most small businesses haven’t got cash flow for more than a couple of weeks.
It is an unbelievably tragic catastrophe which is now hitting the world. I have talked about the coming collapse of the world economy for many years and done my best to tell people to protect themselves. Sadly, most people believe that good times will go on forever. Therefore the coming economic downturn will shock the world.
Although, there is always a catalyst for a downturn, the world could not have been hit by a worse trigger. The biggest economic downturn in history was due anyway.
Global money printing will increase to $10s and $100s of trillions and when the derivative bubble blows up, it will reach $ quadrillions. There can be no other outcome.
STOCKS WILL GO DOWN BY 90% FASTER THAN IN 1929-32
In 1929, it took the Dow 2 1/2 years to go down by 90% and the depression lasted for many years. This time because of Coronavirus (CV), the collapse will be very fast. It could all happen in 9-18 months. By that time the financial system will be unrecognisable or nonexistent. All the printed money will be valued at its intrinsic value of zero. And so will all the assets that were bought or created by this printed money. Stocks will be down 99% and most bonds down by 100%.
But even if markets will collapse very quickly, the world economy will go along the bottom for years and maybe decades.
Investors in property live under the false impression that bricks and mortar will always have a value. Sadly that won’t be the case. If there are no tenants or if they don’t pay the rent, the properties will be almost worthless. I have already heard from friends in the property business who say that the tenants can’t pay the rent. Governments in some countries have promised to help out with rent. But that help will consist of worthless printed money and therefore only have a very short term effect as its value declines daily. If printed money was wealth, we could all stop working.
FAKE MONEY, FAKE VALUATIONS, FAKE MARKETS
So we are now entering the end of a 100 year phase of fake money, fake valuations, fake markets and unlimited debt, all leading to the biggest bubble in history. This has also led to false ethical and moral values and the breakup of family values. Too many people have been chasing the golden calf or material values.
What makes the coming period particularly difficult is the combination of CV hitting many people combined with severe financial pressures. A very big percentage of the population will experience extremely hard times both physically and financially.
HOSPITALS FIGHTING A DESPERATE BATTLE WITH CV
As we have seen in many European countries, there are not enough intensive care units or ventilators even for a fraction of the patients who need it. Doctors and medical staff, in for example Italy or the UK, are fighting a desperate but losing battle and still working around the clock. Many elderly and severely ill people are not even admitted since there is no room and they are left to die.
The situation is made even worse because most governments have waited far too long to take strong action. If you listened to most leaders of state in Europe and the US, everyone thought that they had it under control and their country wouldn’t be severely affected. And then for every day that passed, they gradually changed the tone as they realised that their country would be hit badly too. All a country needed to do is to look at Italy where CV started only a few weeks ago but sadly is still growing exponentially. Just Saturday there were 800 fatalities making almost 5,000 total deaths. Other countries can just with some delay extrapolate Italy’s figures to forecast what will hit them. Also, in many countries the population is not taking the advice or instructions seriously and openly mixing with other people.
No one can tell how long this will last. Observers on the ground in China are saying that CV is still growing there as opposed to official government information. Some people are saying that it could last for 6 months or more and this doesn’t seem unlikely.
THE WORLD ECONOMY COULD DISAPPEAR IN A BLACK HOLE
If the economy closed for more than 6 months with most people not working and major parts of the manufacturing sector closed, then both the economy and the financial system will disappear in a black hole. Governments will have some very difficult choices in the next few weeks and months – the survival of people against the survival of the economy.
Looking at markets, the bull market is over and whatever outcome we will see of CV and government actions, the world is now entering a severe secular bear market which will be long lasting. All bubble assets, stocks, bonds and property will decline by 90% or more.
All major countries led by the Fed, the ECB, the IMF, BOJ, PBOC etc will print unlimited amounts of money. All currencies will decline by 100% as they finish the race to the bottom to their intrinsic value of ZERO. We will soon see high inflation, quickly leading to hyperinflation.
PAPER GOLD MARKET WILL COLLAPSE
Gold and other precious metals will maintain their purchasing power and most likely much more than that as the huge and manipulated paper market in gold and silver collapses. Comex and other futures exchanges will default combined with the whole LBMA system of bullion banks.
There is very strong demand for gold and especially silver currently. Small dealers are out of stock of most items. Bigger buyers like ourselves can still get hold of gold from the refiners but for silver there is a delay of a couple of weeks currently.
So there are many factors which will be extremely favourable for the precious metals:
- Fear and loss of confidence in economy
- Financial system collapsing
- Failure of paper market
- Debasing of currencies and hyperinflation
- Exponential increase in demand
- All current gold production absorbed annually so no surplus
- We have reached peak gold and production will decrease
It is still possible to buy physical gold and silver at a very low price based on the fake paper market. This will not last long as shortages will soon develop and repricing of the metals is imminent. The previous sentence was written on March 24. Gold is up $100 since then. This is just the beginning of a major long term repricing of gold.
Please remember that the principal reason to hold physical metals is for insurance and wealth preservation and not for short term gains.
Finally please remember to look after yourselves and families and in particular the older generation.
STOP PRESS
PRESSURE IN PHYSICAL GOLD MARKET & END OF PAPER MARKET IN GOLD AND SILVER
The Swiss refiners in the Canton of Ticino closing due to CV is having a major effect on the availability of gold. We must remember that 70% of all gold bars in the world are produced in Switzerland and that the 3 biggest refiners are in Ticino where the local government has ordered non-essential factories to close.
Since last Friday when the Swiss refiners closed, gold is up $100 and demand is major and frantic. Bid – offer spreads have increased substantially and premiums on gold and silver are very high. Gold in bigger quantities is now very difficult to obtain but not impossible. There is a major silver shortage and virtually impossible to find. Smaller quantities of silver fetch a 100% markup on spot.
With very little physical available and demand substantial, there is soon likely to be pressure on the paper market. Investors who have bought gold and silver futures will be concerned of the contracts being honoured and ask for delivery.
What we are seeing now is probably the beginning of the end of the gold and silver paper market.
Egon von Greyerz
Founder and Managing Partner
Matterhorn Asset Management
Zurich, Switzerland
Phone: +41 44 213 62 45
Matterhorn Asset Management’s global client base strategically stores an important part of their wealth in Switzerland in physical gold and silver outside the banking system. Matterhorn Asset Management is pleased to deliver a unique and exceptional service to our highly esteemed wealth preservation clientele in over 70 countries.
GoldSwitzerland.com
Contact Us
Articles may be republished if full credits are given with a link to GoldSwitzerland.com.
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- Post 7,988
- Cleanup
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- Mar 24, 2020 2:06pm
- Post #12,525
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- Mar 19, 2024 7:27am Mar 19, 2024 7:27am
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,787 Posts
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ne...ops+to+zero%29
Authored by Jack Rasmus via Counterpunch.org,
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve crossed its latest liquidity free money Rubicon. It announced it will provide unlimited credit–and assume the bad debts, not just of banks, shadow banks, and wealthy investors but for what it called ‘Main St.’
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...%20%281%29.jpg
But by ‘Main St.’ it doesn’t mean consumers or households. It means that virtually any capitalist financial enterprise that has bad debt it can now dump it on the Fed.
In their announcement of its latest ‘lending facility’, as it is called, the Fed declared it would ‘support’ small business loans, student loans, auto securitized loans, and credit card debt. But that does not mean the Fed will ‘support’ consumers and assume their loans.
Oh no!
It means it will support the financial lenders making such loans for students, auto purchases, credit cards and small businesses.
It means these lenders can now dump their bad, defaulted, or otherwise non-performing debt from credit cards, auto loans, student or small business loans on the Fed.
The Fed will eat it for them, and add it to the Fed’s own $4 trillion plus indebted balance sheet–soon to rise to $8 trillion or more.
I propose therefore we erect a new Statue of Money Capital on the steps in front of the Federal Reserve building in Washington D.C. A companion to the Statue of Liberty in the New York harbour. And on it we should inscribe the following motto:
“Give me your busted financial speculators, your bankrupt businesses, your huddled hedge funds yearning for guaranteed high yield. The wretched of your banking system. Send me your former millionaires with now empty accounts and I will make them whole again. I lift my greenback lamp beside my free money door. Come in and get what you want!”
What are markets for at all if The Fed now backstops everything?
POSTED MARCH 24, 2020 !!!
Authored by Jack Rasmus via Counterpunch.org,
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve crossed its latest liquidity free money Rubicon. It announced it will provide unlimited credit–and assume the bad debts, not just of banks, shadow banks, and wealthy investors but for what it called ‘Main St.’
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...%20%281%29.jpg
But by ‘Main St.’ it doesn’t mean consumers or households. It means that virtually any capitalist financial enterprise that has bad debt it can now dump it on the Fed.
In their announcement of its latest ‘lending facility’, as it is called, the Fed declared it would ‘support’ small business loans, student loans, auto securitized loans, and credit card debt. But that does not mean the Fed will ‘support’ consumers and assume their loans.
Oh no!
It means it will support the financial lenders making such loans for students, auto purchases, credit cards and small businesses.
It means these lenders can now dump their bad, defaulted, or otherwise non-performing debt from credit cards, auto loans, student or small business loans on the Fed.
The Fed will eat it for them, and add it to the Fed’s own $4 trillion plus indebted balance sheet–soon to rise to $8 trillion or more.
I propose therefore we erect a new Statue of Money Capital on the steps in front of the Federal Reserve building in Washington D.C. A companion to the Statue of Liberty in the New York harbour. And on it we should inscribe the following motto:
“Give me your busted financial speculators, your bankrupt businesses, your huddled hedge funds yearning for guaranteed high yield. The wretched of your banking system. Send me your former millionaires with now empty accounts and I will make them whole again. I lift my greenback lamp beside my free money door. Come in and get what you want!”
What are markets for at all if The Fed now backstops everything?
POSTED MARCH 24, 2020 !!!
- Post #12,526
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- Mar 19, 2024 7:35am Mar 19, 2024 7:35am
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,787 Posts
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- Mar 19, 2024 7:58am Mar 19, 2024 7:58am
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,787 Posts
- Post #12,528
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- Mar 19, 2024 8:02am Mar 19, 2024 8:02am
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,787 Posts
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- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,787 Posts
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- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,787 Posts
Ultimate Insider’s Reveal #1 Secret - Doug Casey's International Man
Dear Reader,
We just entered the most turbulent period in US history…
The 2020s will be more dangerous than the 1930s, the 1940s, and even the 1860s.
That's because severe crises are brewing on multiple fronts and converging.
The whole system will have a complete reset, and soon.
The coming financial volatility will be unlike anything we've ever seen before…
It could be the BIGGEST thing not just since the Great Depression of 1929 to 1946.
It could be the BIGGEST thing since the founding of the USA.
Almost EVERYONE could lose money in the ensuing economic collapse.
Here's The Problem You Face…
We're in an economic no-man's-land…
There is a stock market bubble, a real estate bubble, a bond super-bubble… It's really an Everything Bubble.
It's the BIGGEST bubble in human history.
That means most investments YOU own are likely overvalued and high risk.
How did this happen?
In a desperate attempt to paper over their problems, governments have printed trillions of new currency units, brought interest rates to below zero, and bailed out failing institutions.
But those gimmicks have now been exhausted.
There's going to be much less stability of any kind—financial, economic, political, social, cultural, or military—in the months to come.
The Crisis Has Already Started…
So many momentous events are unfolding right now, including:
Dear Reader,
We just entered the most turbulent period in US history…
The 2020s will be more dangerous than the 1930s, the 1940s, and even the 1860s.
That's because severe crises are brewing on multiple fronts and converging.
The whole system will have a complete reset, and soon.
The coming financial volatility will be unlike anything we've ever seen before…
It could be the BIGGEST thing not just since the Great Depression of 1929 to 1946.
It could be the BIGGEST thing since the founding of the USA.
Almost EVERYONE could lose money in the ensuing economic collapse.
Here's The Problem You Face…
We're in an economic no-man's-land…
There is a stock market bubble, a real estate bubble, a bond super-bubble… It's really an Everything Bubble.
It's the BIGGEST bubble in human history.
That means most investments YOU own are likely overvalued and high risk.
How did this happen?
In a desperate attempt to paper over their problems, governments have printed trillions of new currency units, brought interest rates to below zero, and bailed out failing institutions.
But those gimmicks have now been exhausted.
There's going to be much less stability of any kind—financial, economic, political, social, cultural, or military—in the months to come.
The Crisis Has Already Started…
So many momentous events are unfolding right now, including:
- Inflation soaring to 40-year highs… and showing no sign of slowing down
- Financial instability and a stock market collapse
- Unprecedented partisan acrimony and rising political turbulence
- Tensions with China are reaching the boiling point
- Geopolitical shocks from Eastern Europe and the Middle East
- Supply chains breaking down resulting in shortages
The truth is, the Everything Bubble has already found its pin.
The biggest financial bubble in human history has popped… and nothing can put the air back in it.
In other words, the crisis has already started.
It will trigger a cascade of consequences.
We are heading for the double whammy of apolitical crisis and a thundering financial breakdown at the same time.
There has never been such a fraught moment in history.
This perfect storm will gravely impact the personal liberty and financial security of EVERYONE.
Here’s Why It Matters To You…
It's going to be an increasingly volatile time for retirees, savers, and investors.
Following conventional advice is likely a recipe for becoming financial roadkill.
The average person could see their nest egg decimated as financial wealth evaporates.
You could be risking everything you've invested in… including your savings and retirement.
Which means your life could look very different from what you had planned…
That's why you have to decide—basically right now—how you're going to play your cards.
This Will Show You What 99% of Investors Don't Know…
If you want to survive the turbulent environment with your savings intact, profit from investment opportunities others miss, or even if you just want to protect your personal and financial freedom, then this is the most important dispatch you'll read all year!
Here's why…
Because in today's volatile world, making the right moves—or NOT—can mean the difference between suffering crippling losses and making windfall gains.
You need to understand what's coming down the pike from Washington and Wall Street so that neither you nor your portfolio are blindsided.
You need an alternate source of information that is comprehensive and consistent and shows you how it all fits together.
Luckily for you—and for the first time ever—you can access the ultimate insiders to give yourself an unfair advantagewith insight and analysis that most won't have.
We'd like to introduce you to a new advisory from Doug Casey's International Man:
Doug Casey and David Stockman's Contrarian Insider
Legendary investor Doug Casey and "Father of Reaganomics" David Stockman have teamed up to give you everything you need to survive and thrive in today's turbulent environment successfully!
https://internationalman.com/wp-cont...viddoug-v2.png
David Stockman & Doug Casey
Giving You the Inside Track from the Ultimate Insiders…
David Stockman is the preeminent Washington insider turned iconoclast.
He has unparalleled experience spanning two decades each on Wall Street and Capitol Hill.
Now, anyone with connections to the government should elevate your suspicion level.
But as you'll see, David is a genuine opponent of government stupidity. He is a strong advocate for free markets and a vastly smaller government.
Known as the "Father of Reaganomics," David Stockman served as President Ronald Reagan's budget director and was a principal architect of his original effort to Make America Great Again.
Since starting in Washington as a legislative assistant in 1970, he saw every business cycle and president up close and personal.
In short, David Stockman knows how Washington DC thinks.
https://internationalman.com/wp-cont...and-Reagan.png
President Ronald Reagan with David Stockman in the Oval Office
David spent nearly 20 years in Washington as a Capitol Hill staffer and US congressman and was the youngest Cabinet member of the 20th century.
https://internationalman.com/wp-cont...pital-HIll.png
David Stockman on Capitol Hill
After leaving the corridors of Washington, David spent 20 years on Wall Street, where he became one of the original partners at the New York-based private equity firm, The Blackstone Group.
David is one of the few people who REALLY understand what the political and financial establishment has planned…and precisely what you can do to protect yourself and profit.
Legendary Investor Can Show You Where the Market Is Going Ahead of the Big Moves
Doug Casey is a well-known contrarian investor and self-made multi-millionaire.
His success has given him the chance to go anywhere he wants.
Doug has been to over 145 countries and has several homes around the world, including a private luxury resort in a secluded mountain location in South America.
He is a sought-after speaker at investment conferences around the world, and it is usually standing-room only during his presentations.
Doug literally wrote the book on profiting from periods of economic turmoil.
His book, Crisis Investing, spent 29 consecutive weeks at #1 on the New York Times bestseller list, earning the title of the best-selling financial book of the year.
He has been a featured guest on hundreds of radio and TV shows, including David Letterman, Merv Griffin, Charlie Rose, Phil Donahue, Regis Philbin, Maury Povich, NBC News, and CNN.
Doug has been the topic of numerous articles in Time, Forbes, People, and the Washington Post.
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Doug Casey on the Phil Donahue Show
Doug attended Georgetown with Bill Clinton and has met several other presidents.
He has debated political strategists Karl Rove and James Carville and other figures like Newt Gingrich and Charles Krauthammer.
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Doug Casey Debates Democratic Strategist James Carville
Doug has met numerous world leaders, including Fidel Castro, with whom he shared a cigar.
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Fidel Castro and Doug Casey (Upper Left)
Doug Casey has a proven track record of predicting major political and economic shifts. He has pretty much predicted every important market movement since the 1970s.
This insight allows him—and those who follow his work—to be well positioned to protect their savings and make life-changing fortunes ahead of big changes.
For example, he predicted the fall of the Soviet Union and the 9/11 attacks—weeks before they happened.
Doug also predicted the market crash in the S&L Crisis in the early ’90s… the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2000… the 2008 financial crisis… and the crisis unfolding RIGHT NOW.
A hundred years from now… Doug Casey may well be remembered as one of the great prophets of our time.
— ROBERT RINGER, BEST-SELLING AUTHOR
If you're worried that you don't know where the market is going, you need to listen to what Doug Casey says.
Your Chance to Make Profits that 99.9% of Investors only Dream Of
It is in times like this that legendary investor Doug Casey thrives…
For decades, Doug and his team have specialized in finding incredible speculative opportunities with life-changing potential in situations just like this.
Their work has helped thousands of people.
Every investor needs to explore the unconventional. Doug Casey will make you think; this is not the conventional wisdom.
— JIM ROGERS, INTERNATIONAL INVESTOR
Below we'll review some of Doug's biggest wins.
But, of course, it is not a full track record, and not every trade was a winner. And past performance is not an indication of future results. But it does give an idea on the kinds of opportunities we are aiming for.
For example, Doug Casey was a founding shareholder in a company that was one of the most significant profit opportunities in mining stocks in the last 20 years.
When the company went public, it was worth about $500 million. Two years later, its market cap had soared above $2 billion and kept going.
Today, it's one of the biggest and most successful companies in the precious metals space.
Earlier this year, it was worth over $12 billion. In other words, the company exploded to more than 24 times its IPO value.
Doug's readers could have made a fortune too. He recommended the stock in February 2005 and said he thought shares could hit the moon.
Doug was spot-on.
Just look at how much you could have made as an early investor. It soared more than 500% in under three years.
https://internationalman.com/wp-cont.../Chart-111.png
About a year later, the company's share price started to skyrocket again.
This time from under $5 to more than $45—or over 800%—in just over two years.
https://internationalman.com/wp-cont...3/Chart-11.png
And then there's Paladin Energy, a uranium company, another unbelievably big win for Doug… and also his readers.
Paladin skyrocketed from one penny to a peak of over $10 per share during uranium's last bull market in the mid-2000s.
That's a 1,000-fold increase.
In other words, a $1,000 investment could have exploded into $1 million.
A $10,000 investment could have turned into $10 million.
Rick Rule is Doug's longtime friend and a prominent natural resource investor. He also invested in Paladin and called it…
The single most important financial event of my career.
Long before anyone knew what was going to happen in the uranium market mania, Doug alerted his readers to the opportunity with Paladin Energy.
It's likely that Paladin was also the most significant financial event in many of their lives.
Now, Paladin was a rare and unique example. However, as stunning as Paladin’s performance was, it’s important also to remember that past performance is not an indication of future results—for any investment.
But just think if you were able to make a similar life-changing profit…
It could mean setting you up to live the life you want.
You wouldn't have to work again… or worry about scraping by in retirement.
You could travel the world in First Class.
You could buy a new home on the beach.
And you could have plenty left to help your family.
Imagine multiplying your money by 10x, 15x, 20x or more in just a matter of months…
These are the kinds of returns we aim for at Doug Casey and David Stockman's Contrarian Insider.
At Contrarian Insider, we are interested only in taking asymmetric bets.
An asymmetric bet is one where the potential upside of a position greatly exceeds its potential downside.
If you risk $1 for the chance of making $20, you're making an asymmetric bet.
Amateur investors too often risk 100% of their money in the pursuit of a 100% return.
These are horrible odds that the financially and statistically illiterate flock toward… the kind you find in casinos and most sports betting.
It's one of the key reasons most people struggle in the market.
We've always been more attracted to asymmetric bets… where we stand a good chance of making 10, 50, even 100 times the amount we're risking.
We're not interested in even bets. We're taking the field only if our potential upside is much, much greater than our potential downside.
The years to come are going to be tough on everybody, but the speculator has by far the best chance of coming out ahead.
— DOUG CASEY
Here's Everything You'll Get
12 monthly issues of David Stockman and Doug Casey's Contrarian Insider
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Every month you'll receive a new issue of Doug Casey and David Stockman's Contrarian Insider.
In it, you'll get insights and information about what's really going on in Washington DC and on Wall Street from the ultimate insiders.
Including…
- What it means for savers and fixed-income retirees
- How it will impact your personal liberty and financial security
- How to navigate the complicated economic situation with ease
- How to act on money-making opportunities in this environment
Thanks to Contrarian Insider, you don't have to be an expert investor or insider to find investments others miss.
You will also get each month specific recommendations for how to protect yourself and profit.
We'll give you regular portfolio updates on our investment recommendations.
At Doug Casey and David Stockman's Contrarian Insider, we track our portfolio companies daily. Whenever there's important news, we'll let you know. We'll let you know as soon as possible when it's time to stop buying and when to sell.
You'll have 24/7 access to our members-only website where you'll find all past issues of Contrarian Insider… our model portfolio, including all current recommendations… Plus, all our exclusive special reports.
- You'll receive stock recommendations you can access from your brokerage account
- Easy-to-follow information for what you need to do to secure your nest egg
- What you can do to make your money go farther, for prudence and profit
- Actionable opportunities to generate big returns without increased risk
- Doug Casey's International Man Communique, a BONUS briefing three times per week
And That's Not All…
You'll also get IMMEDIATE access to 4 Bonus Reports which have...
- One high-potential quality speculation you could take advantage of RIGHT NOW for enormous potential gains. Best of all, we think it's a low-risk and high-reward opportunity.
- Doug's unique approach for establishing a low-risk portfolio with 1,000% upside potential.
- The ultimate guide to preserving your wealth in this environment with precious metals in the safest jurisdiction.
- The single most important system that Doug uses for picking and investing in lucrative resource and precious metals stocks.
Bonus Report #1
International Man's Number One Speculation for Life-Changing Profits
https://internationalman.com/wp-cont...-v2-bonus1.jpg
There is only a limited number of quality speculations available.
What you don't hear about in the mainstream media is that smart investors are flooding into them—out of both prudence and potential for enormous upside.
As the serious money begins to come into them, investors who take a position now could turn their dimes into dollars.
But the crucial part is getting in ahead of the masses. Otherwise, it might be too late.
Our new report—"International Man's Number One Speculation for Life-Changing Profits"—has our thoughts on a high-potential, yet little-known speculation which is set to soar in the weeks ahead.
It contains a lesser-known opportunity that you likely won't hear about anywhere else.
This urgent report can be yours FREE.
- Post #12,532
- Quote
- Mar 19, 2024 7:08pm Mar 19, 2024 7:08pm
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,787 Posts
Free Speech Either is – or it Isn’t – The Burning Platform
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Free Speech Either is – or it Isn’t
Guest Post by Eric Peters
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Rand Paul has been defending free speech again – the bastard.
He says Americans – everyone – ought to be worried about their freedom to speak (more finely, to read and hear about things the government and corporations don’t want them to read and hear about) being arbitrated by government – and corporations.
But, the Chinese!
They own TikTok! Even though – as the senator has had to explain to those who already know better – the “Chinese” do not own TikTok. Some Chinese people own part of it. As well as Americans. All of which is completely beside the point that Paul has been trying to make. Which is that it ought not to matter who owns TikTok if you are opposed to the government and corporations owning what you are allowed to read and hear and also to where and how you’re allowed to say what you think.
That is the danger. This “bipartisan” (naturally; when it comes to important things, the Uniparty is always bipartisan) effort to ban TikTok or place TikTok under a regime of official supervision has nothing to do with protecting Americans from the wily Chinese. It has everything to do with placing what Americans are allowed to say read and hear under the supervision of the corrupt authorities in Washington. The same horrible people who framed people who questioned whether a “pandemic” was afoot when the facts (such as case fatality rates) indicated otherwise as “super spreaders” of “misinformation” are itching to frame anyone who disagrees with any of their narratives as even worse than that.https://www.ericpetersautos.com/wp-c...om-300x150.jpg
This talk of “threats to our democracy” is no small threat to those who resent being told what they must pretend to believe and what they are allowed and not allowed to say, hear, or read.
Make no mistake, they are going for broke. Because they have no choice. Free speech and authoritarianism cannot co-exist. You can have one – or the other. You cannot have both at the same time – and the authoritarians know it.
It’s why they began – decades ago – to frame odious speech as a threat, implicitly (and, inevitably, explicitly) warranting that it be suppressed. To set the precedent for general suppression of speech the authorities find odious.
For example, it is already a criminal act in several Western (sic) countries to “question” what the official history narratives say the National Socialist regime that ruled Germany in the ’30s and early ’40s of the last century did to Jews and other unfavored people in what was then the Reich.
The National Socialists were horrible people.
Authoritarian socialism is always horrible because authoritarianism is always horrible. What was done to the Jews and other unfavorable people – including people the National Socialists interestingly referred to as “asocial” people, which meant people who resented the regimentation of authoritarian socialism – was horrible. But it is horrible to adopt the tactics of the National Socialists to suppress the speech of those whose speech makes some uncomfortable.https://www.ericpetersautos.com/wp-c...e-272x300.jpeg
However in error – or obnoxious – a person’s speech may be, it is a much greater error (and far worse than merely obnoxious) to tell a person he is not free to speak; that others are not free to hear or read. Indeed, doing so makes people suspect there may be something to what is being said; else why the heavy-handed efforts to suppress it?
See that business about “misinformation” regarding what wasn’t a “pandemic.” Keep in mind the dirty business – regarding the regime’s collusion with corporate media to keep people in the dark about the truth. Think about how eager they are to criminalize the telling of it – as has already undergone Beta Testing in California, where doctors who spoke freely – and honestly – with their patients about the drugs that were neither necessary nor “safe and effective” were subject to punishment for so doing.
The truth is no defense.
Is it offensive to “deny” the Holocaust? Many think so. Many also think it is offensive – and ought to be a punishable offense – to “deny” that the “climate” is “changing” and that a man who dresses like and pretends he is a woman is one.
This “China” thing is just another ought-to-be-obvious excuse, like the one about “terrorism” that was used as the excuse to terrorize Americans, who after nearly a quarter-century of it have mostly gotten used to it.
Which, of course, was always the point of it.
Just as the point of this effort to place TikTok under government-corporate supervision has never been about who owns TikTok nor what is being purveyed by TikTok – which people aren’t being forced to view or listen to, it bears pointing out. It is about owning what Americans are allowed to think and say by turning over to government arbitrage what they are allowed to hear and see.
The fact that some of the very worst people – e.g., Nancy Pelosi – are the people most strenuously in favor while some of the best – e.g., Rand Paul – are opposed ought to tell you everything you need to know.
https://www.theburningplatform.com/w...er-for-tbp.png
Free Speech Either is – or it Isn’t
Guest Post by Eric Peters
https://www.ericpetersautos.com/wp-c...d--696x387.jpg
Rand Paul has been defending free speech again – the bastard.
He says Americans – everyone – ought to be worried about their freedom to speak (more finely, to read and hear about things the government and corporations don’t want them to read and hear about) being arbitrated by government – and corporations.
But, the Chinese!
They own TikTok! Even though – as the senator has had to explain to those who already know better – the “Chinese” do not own TikTok. Some Chinese people own part of it. As well as Americans. All of which is completely beside the point that Paul has been trying to make. Which is that it ought not to matter who owns TikTok if you are opposed to the government and corporations owning what you are allowed to read and hear and also to where and how you’re allowed to say what you think.
That is the danger. This “bipartisan” (naturally; when it comes to important things, the Uniparty is always bipartisan) effort to ban TikTok or place TikTok under a regime of official supervision has nothing to do with protecting Americans from the wily Chinese. It has everything to do with placing what Americans are allowed to say read and hear under the supervision of the corrupt authorities in Washington. The same horrible people who framed people who questioned whether a “pandemic” was afoot when the facts (such as case fatality rates) indicated otherwise as “super spreaders” of “misinformation” are itching to frame anyone who disagrees with any of their narratives as even worse than that.https://www.ericpetersautos.com/wp-c...om-300x150.jpg
This talk of “threats to our democracy” is no small threat to those who resent being told what they must pretend to believe and what they are allowed and not allowed to say, hear, or read.
Make no mistake, they are going for broke. Because they have no choice. Free speech and authoritarianism cannot co-exist. You can have one – or the other. You cannot have both at the same time – and the authoritarians know it.
It’s why they began – decades ago – to frame odious speech as a threat, implicitly (and, inevitably, explicitly) warranting that it be suppressed. To set the precedent for general suppression of speech the authorities find odious.
For example, it is already a criminal act in several Western (sic) countries to “question” what the official history narratives say the National Socialist regime that ruled Germany in the ’30s and early ’40s of the last century did to Jews and other unfavored people in what was then the Reich.
The National Socialists were horrible people.
Authoritarian socialism is always horrible because authoritarianism is always horrible. What was done to the Jews and other unfavorable people – including people the National Socialists interestingly referred to as “asocial” people, which meant people who resented the regimentation of authoritarian socialism – was horrible. But it is horrible to adopt the tactics of the National Socialists to suppress the speech of those whose speech makes some uncomfortable.https://www.ericpetersautos.com/wp-c...e-272x300.jpeg
However in error – or obnoxious – a person’s speech may be, it is a much greater error (and far worse than merely obnoxious) to tell a person he is not free to speak; that others are not free to hear or read. Indeed, doing so makes people suspect there may be something to what is being said; else why the heavy-handed efforts to suppress it?
See that business about “misinformation” regarding what wasn’t a “pandemic.” Keep in mind the dirty business – regarding the regime’s collusion with corporate media to keep people in the dark about the truth. Think about how eager they are to criminalize the telling of it – as has already undergone Beta Testing in California, where doctors who spoke freely – and honestly – with their patients about the drugs that were neither necessary nor “safe and effective” were subject to punishment for so doing.
The truth is no defense.
Is it offensive to “deny” the Holocaust? Many think so. Many also think it is offensive – and ought to be a punishable offense – to “deny” that the “climate” is “changing” and that a man who dresses like and pretends he is a woman is one.
This “China” thing is just another ought-to-be-obvious excuse, like the one about “terrorism” that was used as the excuse to terrorize Americans, who after nearly a quarter-century of it have mostly gotten used to it.
Which, of course, was always the point of it.
Just as the point of this effort to place TikTok under government-corporate supervision has never been about who owns TikTok nor what is being purveyed by TikTok – which people aren’t being forced to view or listen to, it bears pointing out. It is about owning what Americans are allowed to think and say by turning over to government arbitrage what they are allowed to hear and see.
The fact that some of the very worst people – e.g., Nancy Pelosi – are the people most strenuously in favor while some of the best – e.g., Rand Paul – are opposed ought to tell you everything you need to know.
- Post #12,533
- Quote
- Mar 19, 2024 7:21pm Mar 19, 2024 7:21pm
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,787 Posts
https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-05-0...FC-vE.facebook
News Bites
Roubini: The Fed is 'cornered'; will either lose control of inflation or crash markets
https://www.kitco.com/ind/KitcoNews/.../Kitco-Inc.png
Kitco News Friday, May 07, 2021, 15:11
Kitco News
(Kitco News) - While inflationary fears are picking up, the markets have not demonstrated a readiness to accept higher interest rates. In fact, rising nominal treasury yields over the past few months have, on several occasions, prompted market selloffs.
This predicament puts the Federal Reserve in a tough position, said Nouriel Roubini, CEO of Roubini Macro Associates and professor at the NYU Stern School of Business, because should the Fed raise interest rates to try to control inflation, the market may see a return of 2013's "taper tantrum".
"Either the Fed, at that point, keeps on saying things are temporary, inflation expectations start to rise, they control the short end of the yield curve, but then long rates can rise in nominal and real terms, that's one risk. Then, inflation gets out of control. Or, like in 2013, they have to backpedal and say no, there is a problem with inflation and we have to start tapering sooner than we said, we need to start raising rates sooner than we said, and we could have a repeat of what happened in 2013," Roubini told Michelle Makori, Kitco's editor-in-chief.
In 2013, when the Fed announced a reduction in its pace of Treasury bond purchases, U.S. Treasury yields soared on the announcement.
A repeat of this scenario could have serious implications for all markets, if not the broader economy, Roubini said, noting that the fixed income sector is particularly at risk.
"So either way is risky. Either you're behind the curve, you're going to cause inflation, or if you don't want to be any more behind the curve, and then you signal, 'I'm going to tighten', then you could have a bond market and a credit market crash that could really weaken the economy, if not stall it. It's damned if you do, damned if you don't," he said.
On inflation expectations, Roubini agreed with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's assessment that interest rates would have to rise to prevent inflation from "overheating."
Yellen made this statement at an economic event hosted by the Atlantic magazine earlier this week but quickly retracted her statement after markets tumbled by saying that she doesn"t think inflation will be a significant problem.
"I think that she was telling the truth when she expressed her own first concern that maybe there could be overheating that might lead to inflation to overshoot what the Fed does, therefore the Fed [will have] to raise rates," Roubini said.
For more details, including what Nouriel Roubini thinks about central bank independence and the Biden Administration's spending, click the link and watch the video above.
By Kitco News
For Kitco News
[IMG]https://www.kitco.com/images/authors/author-resume-contact.png[/IMG] [color=#666666][email protected][/color]
www.kitco.com
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.
Inserted Video
News Bites
Roubini: The Fed is 'cornered'; will either lose control of inflation or crash markets
https://www.kitco.com/ind/KitcoNews/.../Kitco-Inc.png
Kitco News Friday, May 07, 2021, 15:11
Kitco News
(Kitco News) - While inflationary fears are picking up, the markets have not demonstrated a readiness to accept higher interest rates. In fact, rising nominal treasury yields over the past few months have, on several occasions, prompted market selloffs.
This predicament puts the Federal Reserve in a tough position, said Nouriel Roubini, CEO of Roubini Macro Associates and professor at the NYU Stern School of Business, because should the Fed raise interest rates to try to control inflation, the market may see a return of 2013's "taper tantrum".
"Either the Fed, at that point, keeps on saying things are temporary, inflation expectations start to rise, they control the short end of the yield curve, but then long rates can rise in nominal and real terms, that's one risk. Then, inflation gets out of control. Or, like in 2013, they have to backpedal and say no, there is a problem with inflation and we have to start tapering sooner than we said, we need to start raising rates sooner than we said, and we could have a repeat of what happened in 2013," Roubini told Michelle Makori, Kitco's editor-in-chief.
In 2013, when the Fed announced a reduction in its pace of Treasury bond purchases, U.S. Treasury yields soared on the announcement.
A repeat of this scenario could have serious implications for all markets, if not the broader economy, Roubini said, noting that the fixed income sector is particularly at risk.
"So either way is risky. Either you're behind the curve, you're going to cause inflation, or if you don't want to be any more behind the curve, and then you signal, 'I'm going to tighten', then you could have a bond market and a credit market crash that could really weaken the economy, if not stall it. It's damned if you do, damned if you don't," he said.
On inflation expectations, Roubini agreed with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's assessment that interest rates would have to rise to prevent inflation from "overheating."
Yellen made this statement at an economic event hosted by the Atlantic magazine earlier this week but quickly retracted her statement after markets tumbled by saying that she doesn"t think inflation will be a significant problem.
"I think that she was telling the truth when she expressed her own first concern that maybe there could be overheating that might lead to inflation to overshoot what the Fed does, therefore the Fed [will have] to raise rates," Roubini said.
For more details, including what Nouriel Roubini thinks about central bank independence and the Biden Administration's spending, click the link and watch the video above.
By Kitco News
For Kitco News
[IMG]https://www.kitco.com/images/authors/author-resume-contact.png[/IMG] [color=#666666][email protected][/color]
www.kitco.com
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.
Inserted Video
Inserted Video
- Post #12,534
- Quote
- Edited 7:50pm Mar 19, 2024 7:29pm | Edited 7:50pm
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,787 Posts
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/go...ops+to+zero%29
Goodhart's Law: When Investors Mistake The Distortions Of The Wall Of Money For Wisdom
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BY TYLER DURDEN
SUNDAY, JUL 18, 2021 - 04:31 PM
By One River Asset Management CIO, Eric Peters
“When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure,” said the Englishman, stepping outside of himself. “That’s Goodhart’s Law.”
Charles Goodhart observed that central banks measured money supply, and found certain M1 growth rates to be optimal. But once they targeted that optimal range, M1 lost its value as a measure.
Market and economic actors adjusted their behavior to game the M1 system. So central bankers shifted to M2, then M3, and M4.
“Investing is obviously not a science, but if it were, we would say that you can’t act on something and observe it at the same time.” French colonialists discovered this in rat-infested Hanoi when they offered a bounty for killing rodents.
To receive the reward, the Vietnamese were required to produce severed tails.
Soon thereafter, tail-less rats scurried throughout the city. The bounty hunters removed their tails and released them to the filthy sewers to breed. Boosting their bounty.
“Investors discover pricing anomalies from the past. And they pile into them, ensuring that for a time they persist.”
They mistake the distortions of their wall of money for the wisdom of their observations.
They interact with the market as if they’re exogenous, when, in fact, they’ve become endogenous. “Today’s greatest example of Goodhart’s Law in action can be found in volatility markets.”
The VIX index measures the expected volatility of the S&P 500 and is calculated by multiplying the expected 30-day variance by 100. As a measure of market fear, it was quite useful, until it became something that could be traded.
“The sheer size of outstanding positions in VIX futures, VIX options, ETFs, ETNs and bank volatility selling programs is such that those trading these markets can no longer separate the true measure of volatility from their own actions.”
BY JHANDERS
SUNDAY, JUL 18, 2021 - 0:12
I know it sounds ridiculous.
As if I added an extra "$200" per troy ounce to the silver spot price in this article's headline.
But that is the current damning East vs. West silver "price discovery" data aggregated over the last +50 years.
Here is a quick background on how "polite" western silver and gold price suppression is.
I would argue it's more ridiculous to publically say that daily and weekly spoofing of the precious metals price discovery markets to the downside tens of thousands of times over a decade doesn't damage the price of an item, over time, compounding to the downside.
So here we continue to await the coming silver bullion shortage, front running, and likely coming gold bullion shortage (of available quickly deliverable bullion, in real size, at reasonable prices versus spot).
The INCREDIBLE SHRINKING fiat Federal Reserve Note
A bit of bad news, good news to start this week’s SD Bullion market update.
Most often miscalled a US dollar, the fiat Federal Reserve note continues devaluing in real purchasing power at rates not seen in nearly 40 years.
The good news is, silver and gold continue being mispriced discovered by outsized derivative and fiat financialized markets that act as having little to no clue on the capital flow comeuppance to come.
In other words, investors can still get physical precious metals positions at comparatively low historical valuations to other asset classes propped and stubbornly still hovering in bubble status.
Prices reportedly increased near 1% from May to June 2021, signifying double-digit inflation using the government’s hedonic quality rigged, underreported inflation figures.
The following clip is courtesy of this week’s PBS Frontline documentary on the outsized power the private US central bank has over average citizens' lives at the moment.
Here is one of its most apologetic Fed employees, Need Kashkari, shirking responsibility for the supposed regulatory mandates the Federal Reserve is mandated to fulfill.
Pam and Russ Martens of WallStreetOnParade.com point out that over the last 15 and one-half years, the Federal Reserve has approved 3,576 bank mergers. It has denied not one proposed bank merger in the last more than a decade and one half of time.
They go on in this Federal Reserve failure to regulate article. Stating that, the:
"decline in the number of overall banks fails to capture the gargantuan concentration of assets at just four banking behemoths: JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citibank. According to the March 31, 2021 report from the Federal Reserve, just four banks own $9 trillion in assets of the total $22.56 trillion in assets owned by all 4,978 federally-insured banks and savings associations in the country.
To put it more poignantly, those four banks represent just 0.08 percent of all the banks in the country while controlling 40 percent of the assets."
And now the fiat Federal Reserve is pushing for a new fiat Central Bank Digital Currency unit, often called FedCoin, which will likely result in even more bank concentration once it begins being issued likely later this decade.
To end this week's SD Bullion update on brighter news and trends building.
The central bank of Brazil continued the trend of the emerging market country's going long gold bullion reserves adding 41.8 metric tonnes to its Official Gold Reserves in June 2021.
To put that gold bullion buying into perspective, that is akin to buying 3,600 of these 400 oz gold bars you see here.
In terms of the largest net monthly gold bullion reserve buying, six to seven of the largest ten gold bullion buys have happened in the last few years. This trend is unlikely to slow, in other words.
Turning to the base that the spot silver price has been building over the last near one year of time, my belief is it will ultimately be resolved in the medium and longer-term, strongly to the upside.
I say this confidently, knowing that silver's aggregated eastern trading price is still hovering around $226 fiat Federal Reserve notes or fiat US dollars per troy ounce.
Go back to the start of this article, and see the first embedded tweet, to see this east vs. west silver price discovery chart in both a non-logarithmic and logarithmic scale.
I contend that the RED silver spot price will again meet the BLUE eastern aggregated spot price from 2006-2008 and in early 2011.
See moment 19:55 in the video below for more on that belief below:
The question for me remains just how high above ^^^ the seemingly ancient silver price high of $50 per troy ounce will these Red vs. Blue line rendezvous reoccur.
That is all for this week. And as always to you out there, take great care of yourselves and those you love.
- Subscribe to SD BULLION's Youtube Channel -
Inserted Video
Silver Price $226.86 oz Outside COMEX Hours 1970-2021 (youtube.com)
Goodhart's Law: When Investors Mistake The Distortions Of The Wall Of Money For Wisdom
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b.../picture-5.jpg
BY TYLER DURDEN
SUNDAY, JUL 18, 2021 - 04:31 PM
By One River Asset Management CIO, Eric Peters
“When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure,” said the Englishman, stepping outside of himself. “That’s Goodhart’s Law.”
Charles Goodhart observed that central banks measured money supply, and found certain M1 growth rates to be optimal. But once they targeted that optimal range, M1 lost its value as a measure.
Market and economic actors adjusted their behavior to game the M1 system. So central bankers shifted to M2, then M3, and M4.
“Investing is obviously not a science, but if it were, we would say that you can’t act on something and observe it at the same time.” French colonialists discovered this in rat-infested Hanoi when they offered a bounty for killing rodents.
To receive the reward, the Vietnamese were required to produce severed tails.
Soon thereafter, tail-less rats scurried throughout the city. The bounty hunters removed their tails and released them to the filthy sewers to breed. Boosting their bounty.
“Investors discover pricing anomalies from the past. And they pile into them, ensuring that for a time they persist.”
They mistake the distortions of their wall of money for the wisdom of their observations.
They interact with the market as if they’re exogenous, when, in fact, they’ve become endogenous. “Today’s greatest example of Goodhart’s Law in action can be found in volatility markets.”
The VIX index measures the expected volatility of the S&P 500 and is calculated by multiplying the expected 30-day variance by 100. As a measure of market fear, it was quite useful, until it became something that could be traded.
“The sheer size of outstanding positions in VIX futures, VIX options, ETFs, ETNs and bank volatility selling programs is such that those trading these markets can no longer separate the true measure of volatility from their own actions.”
BY JHANDERS
SUNDAY, JUL 18, 2021 - 0:12
I know it sounds ridiculous.
As if I added an extra "$200" per troy ounce to the silver spot price in this article's headline.
But that is the current damning East vs. West silver "price discovery" data aggregated over the last +50 years.
Here is a quick background on how "polite" western silver and gold price suppression is.
I would argue it's more ridiculous to publically say that daily and weekly spoofing of the precious metals price discovery markets to the downside tens of thousands of times over a decade doesn't damage the price of an item, over time, compounding to the downside.
So here we continue to await the coming silver bullion shortage, front running, and likely coming gold bullion shortage (of available quickly deliverable bullion, in real size, at reasonable prices versus spot).
The INCREDIBLE SHRINKING fiat Federal Reserve Note
A bit of bad news, good news to start this week’s SD Bullion market update.
Most often miscalled a US dollar, the fiat Federal Reserve note continues devaluing in real purchasing power at rates not seen in nearly 40 years.
The good news is, silver and gold continue being mispriced discovered by outsized derivative and fiat financialized markets that act as having little to no clue on the capital flow comeuppance to come.
In other words, investors can still get physical precious metals positions at comparatively low historical valuations to other asset classes propped and stubbornly still hovering in bubble status.
Prices reportedly increased near 1% from May to June 2021, signifying double-digit inflation using the government’s hedonic quality rigged, underreported inflation figures.
The following clip is courtesy of this week’s PBS Frontline documentary on the outsized power the private US central bank has over average citizens' lives at the moment.
Here is one of its most apologetic Fed employees, Need Kashkari, shirking responsibility for the supposed regulatory mandates the Federal Reserve is mandated to fulfill.
Pam and Russ Martens of WallStreetOnParade.com point out that over the last 15 and one-half years, the Federal Reserve has approved 3,576 bank mergers. It has denied not one proposed bank merger in the last more than a decade and one half of time.
They go on in this Federal Reserve failure to regulate article. Stating that, the:
"decline in the number of overall banks fails to capture the gargantuan concentration of assets at just four banking behemoths: JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citibank. According to the March 31, 2021 report from the Federal Reserve, just four banks own $9 trillion in assets of the total $22.56 trillion in assets owned by all 4,978 federally-insured banks and savings associations in the country.
To put it more poignantly, those four banks represent just 0.08 percent of all the banks in the country while controlling 40 percent of the assets."
And now the fiat Federal Reserve is pushing for a new fiat Central Bank Digital Currency unit, often called FedCoin, which will likely result in even more bank concentration once it begins being issued likely later this decade.
To end this week's SD Bullion update on brighter news and trends building.
The central bank of Brazil continued the trend of the emerging market country's going long gold bullion reserves adding 41.8 metric tonnes to its Official Gold Reserves in June 2021.
To put that gold bullion buying into perspective, that is akin to buying 3,600 of these 400 oz gold bars you see here.
In terms of the largest net monthly gold bullion reserve buying, six to seven of the largest ten gold bullion buys have happened in the last few years. This trend is unlikely to slow, in other words.
Turning to the base that the spot silver price has been building over the last near one year of time, my belief is it will ultimately be resolved in the medium and longer-term, strongly to the upside.
I say this confidently, knowing that silver's aggregated eastern trading price is still hovering around $226 fiat Federal Reserve notes or fiat US dollars per troy ounce.
Go back to the start of this article, and see the first embedded tweet, to see this east vs. west silver price discovery chart in both a non-logarithmic and logarithmic scale.
I contend that the RED silver spot price will again meet the BLUE eastern aggregated spot price from 2006-2008 and in early 2011.
See moment 19:55 in the video below for more on that belief below:
The question for me remains just how high above ^^^ the seemingly ancient silver price high of $50 per troy ounce will these Red vs. Blue line rendezvous reoccur.
That is all for this week. And as always to you out there, take great care of yourselves and those you love.
- Subscribe to SD BULLION's Youtube Channel -
Inserted Video
Silver Price $226.86 oz Outside COMEX Hours 1970-2021 (youtube.com)
- Post #12,535
- Quote
- Mar 19, 2024 7:37pm Mar 19, 2024 7:37pm
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,787 Posts
Trump Seeks Protection From Late Justice Ginsberg’s Landmark Stuart Kings Ruling (whatdoesitmean.com)
What You Aren’t Being Told About The World You Live In
How The “Conspiracy Theory” Label Was Conceived To Derail The Truth Movement
How Covert American Agents Infiltrate the Internet to Manipulate, Deceive and Destroy Reputations
March 19, 2024
Trump Seeks Protection From Late Justice Ginsberg’s Landmark Stuart Kings Ruling
By: Sorcha Faal, and as reported to her Western Subscribers
An informative new Security Council (SC) report circulating in the Kremlin today first noting President Putin assessing: “I have every reason to believe that no democracy, at least when it comes to electoral campaigning, can be seen in some Western nations, including the United States”, says he then observed: “What is it like to vote by mail in the United States of America?...Who is in control there?...No one...They bought a vote for $10, and then they bought thousands of votes, came in droves, threw them in until midnight, and that's it...Here you have democracy...We do not have anything like that”—an observation joined by the world’s most watched and popular podcaster Joe Rogan assessing about the socialist persecution of President Donald Trump: “It’s crazy how many times they’ve indicted him because it seems like what happens in banana republics, but just somehow or another, it’s okay?...Is it possible that you’re doing this because this guy’s running for president?...Because it kind of seems like it to the world...It looks like you’re trying to prosecute your political opponents...360-something million dollars...That’s insane...It’s a lot of money...Where does it go?... Because there are no victims, right?...That’s a problem...Elon tweeted that...It’s just kind of bonkers”.
The “360-something million dollars” referenced by Rogan, this report notes, is the “uncharted territory” civil fine slammed on President Trump by radical socialist Manhattan Supreme Court Justice Arthur Engoron in a case masterminded by leftist lunatic New York State Attorney General Letitia James, who made a “trophy pledge” during her election campaign to “bag” her quarry President Trump, whom she branded “illegitimate”.
In what’s factually called a “Kafkaesque Civil Trial” that denied President Trump a jury, this report continues, legal experts shockingly observed: “The New York State laws used to go after Trump have NEVER been used in this way, historically, and while Trump may owe some back state taxes, if Judge Engoron is right, not a single bank claimed that it had been defrauded by Trump in the loans it had made to him...This is truly a victimless crime....Ms. James and Judge Engeron have essentially turned a vaguely worded New York State law into a modern day Bill of Attainder targeted at Donald Trump both for political gain and because they despise his political views and desperately want to call his truthfulness into question as he runs for President of the United States in 2024...The civil fraud judgment against Donald Trump is a travesty and an unjust political act rivaled only in American politics by the killing of former Treasury Secretary Alexander Hamilton by Vice President Aaron Burr”.
Under New York State law, this report details, President Trump most post a bond before he can appeal the outrageous ruling, but would require him to post 120% of what he owes with collateral — amounting to $557.5 million—President Trump employed the world’s largest privately held insurance brokerage firm Lockton Companies to secure the bond he needs, but whose President Gary Giulietti of the Northeast for the Lockton Companies revealed in an affidavit yesterday: “Based upon my more than 50 years in the insurance industry as well as my actual experience over the past several weeks during which I have been in contact with some of the largest insurance carriers in the world in an effort to try and obtain a bond for Defendants, it is my opinion that obtaining an appeal bond for $464 million (the "Judgment Amount") is not possible under the circumstances presented...Despite scouring the market, we have been unsuccessful in our effort to obtain a bond for the Judgment Amount for Defendants for the simple reason that obtaining an appeal bond for $464 million is a practical impossibility under the circumstances presented...Simply put, a bond of this size is rarely, if ever, seen...In the unusual circumstance that a bond of this size is issued, it is provided to the largest public companies in the world, not to individuals or privately held business...In the surety world, a bond of $100 million is considered large; an appeal bond of $464 million is commercially unattainable for a privately owned company...Such would be the case even for a company with billions of dollars in real estate unless they have cash or cash equivalents approaching $1 billion so as to collateralize the bond and have sufficient capital to run the business and satisfy its other obligations”.
Upon receiving the Lockton Companies affidavit yesterday, this report notes, the attorneys for President Trump filed a 29-page motion to stay the need for a bond, wherein it pleaded:
In deciding whether to enter a stay, the Court may consider "any relevant factor, including the presumptive merits of the appeal and any exigency or hardship confronting any party".
Here, Defendants' ongoing diligent efforts have proven that a bond in the judgment's full amount is "a practical impossibility".
These diligent efforts have included approaching about 30 surety companies through 4 separate brokers. A bond requirement of this enormous magnitude-effectively requiring cash reserves approaching $1 billion, is unprecedented for a private company.
Even when it comes to publicly traded companies, courts routinely waive or reduce the bond amount. Enforcing an impossible bond requirement as condition of appeal would inflict manifest irreparable injury on Defendants, and defeat or impair this Court's appellate jurisdiction. By contrast, waiving the bond requirement will impose no cognizable harm on the Attorney General.
The case involves no actual victims and no award of restitution, and she is fully protected by Defendants' real-estate holdings. This factor alone warrants a stay.
The manifold errors in Supreme Court's judgment further warrant a stay. Among other errors, Supreme Court disrespectfully disregarded this Court's previous ruling in this case that the statute of limitations applies and that "the continuing wrong doctrine does not delay or extend these periods".
Moreover, the Supreme Court ridiculously valued Mar-a-Lago, in Palm Beach, Florida, as being worth "between $18 million and $27.6 million", understating its actual value by about 50 to 100 times. Supreme Court imposed a massive disgorgement award in the absence of any evidence that the alleged misrepresentations caused the supposedly ill-gotten proceeds, in violation of the black-letter requirement that the disgorged amount must be causally connected to the violation. Supreme Court double- and triple-counted damages, and committed elementary errors in the process, such as conflating the proceeds of a sale with the profits from that sale. Such basic mistakes would have been prevented if this case had been allowed to be adjudicated in the Commercial Division, where it belonged.
These errors establish that the disgorgement award is unconstitutional.
It is "grossly disproportional" in violation of the Excessive Fines Clause of the United States Constitution and a parallel clause of the New York Constitution, as well as basic principles of due process and selective prosecution.
Because the judgment is unconstitutionally excessive, the bond requirement violates the Eighth Amendment as well, because it imposes an irrational, punitive sanction.
This case has no victims, no damages, and no actual fmancial losses. None of Defendants' sophisticated business partners testified that they would have changed any transaction in light of the alleged "misrepresentations" and all of these sophisticated parties, along with their law firms and other service providers, were well aware of the ironclad disclaimers present in all of the financial statements at issue.
With President Trump’s attorneys invoking the Eighth Amendment in their motion to stay yesterday, this report concludes, it placed the outrageous socialist ruling in the cross hairs of the landmark “Timbs v. Indiana” case decided unanimously by the United States Supreme Court on 20 February 2019, which concluded: “The Eighth Amendment’s Excessive Fines Clause is an incorporated protection applicable to the States”—Associate Justice Clarence Thomas wrote in his concurring opinion: “The Eighth Amendment’s prohibition on excessive fines applies in full to the States”—Associate Justice Neil Gorsuch wrote in his concurring opinion: “There can be no serious doubt that the Fourteenth Amendment requires the States to respect the freedom from excessive fines enshrined in the Eighth Amendment”—and whose majority opinion on behalf of the entire Supreme Court was written by the late Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg, who wrote in her landmark unanimous ruling:
The Excessive Fines Clause traces its venerable lineage back to at least 1215, when Magna Carta guaranteed that a Free-man shall not be amerced for a small fault, but after the manner of the fault; and for a great fault after the greatness thereof, saving to him his contenement.
As relevant here, Magna Carta required that economic sanctions “be proportioned to the wrong” and “not be so large as to deprive an offender of his livelihood”.
No man shall have a larger amercement imposed upon him, than his circumstances or personal estate will bear, taking no position on the question whether a person’s income and wealth are relevant considerations in judging the excessiveness of a fine.
Despite Magna Carta, imposition of excessive fines persisted. The 17th century Stuart kings, in particular, were criticized for using large fines to raise revenue, harass their political foes, and indefinitely detain those unable to pay.
For good reason, the protection against excessive fines has been a constant shield throughout Anglo-American history: Exorbitant tolls undermine other constitutional liberties.
Excessive fines can be used, for example, to retaliate against or chill the speech of political enemies, as the Stuarts’ critics learned several centuries ago.
[Note: Some words and/or phrases appearing in quotes in this report are English language approximations of Russian words/phrases having no exact counterpart.]
https://www.whatdoesitmean.com/tvi21.png
https://www.whatdoesitmean.com/tvi22.png
March 19, 2024
EU and US all rights reserved. Permission to use this report in its entirety is granted under the condition it is linked to its original source at WhatDoesItMean.Com. Freebase content licensed under CC-BY and GFDL.
[Note: Many governments and their intelligence services actively campaign against the information found in these reports so as not to alarm their citizens about the many catastrophic Earth changes and events to come, a stance that the Sisters of Sorcha Faal strongly disagree with in believing that it is every human being’s right to know the truth. Due to our mission’s conflicts with that of those governments, the responses of their ‘agents’ has been a longstanding misinformation/misdirection campaign designed to discredit us, and others like us, that is exampled in numerous places, including HERE.]
[Note: The WhatDoesItMean.com website was created for and donated to the Sisters of Sorcha Faal in 2003 by a small group of American computer experts led by the late global technology guru Wayne Green (1922-2013) to counter the propaganda being used by the West to promote their illegal 2003 invasion of Iraq.]
[Note: The word Kremlin (fortress inside a city) as used in this report refers to Russian citadels, including in Moscow, having cathedrals wherein female Schema monks (Orthodox nuns) reside, many of whom are devoted to the mission of the Sisters of Sorcha Faal.]
“A Very Strange State Of Affairs” Now Controls Fate Of World
Russia Prepares For Ice Age As America Descends Into Idiocracy
Return To Main Page
What You Aren’t Being Told About The World You Live In
How The “Conspiracy Theory” Label Was Conceived To Derail The Truth Movement
How Covert American Agents Infiltrate the Internet to Manipulate, Deceive and Destroy Reputations
March 19, 2024
Trump Seeks Protection From Late Justice Ginsberg’s Landmark Stuart Kings Ruling
By: Sorcha Faal, and as reported to her Western Subscribers
An informative new Security Council (SC) report circulating in the Kremlin today first noting President Putin assessing: “I have every reason to believe that no democracy, at least when it comes to electoral campaigning, can be seen in some Western nations, including the United States”, says he then observed: “What is it like to vote by mail in the United States of America?...Who is in control there?...No one...They bought a vote for $10, and then they bought thousands of votes, came in droves, threw them in until midnight, and that's it...Here you have democracy...We do not have anything like that”—an observation joined by the world’s most watched and popular podcaster Joe Rogan assessing about the socialist persecution of President Donald Trump: “It’s crazy how many times they’ve indicted him because it seems like what happens in banana republics, but just somehow or another, it’s okay?...Is it possible that you’re doing this because this guy’s running for president?...Because it kind of seems like it to the world...It looks like you’re trying to prosecute your political opponents...360-something million dollars...That’s insane...It’s a lot of money...Where does it go?... Because there are no victims, right?...That’s a problem...Elon tweeted that...It’s just kind of bonkers”.
The “360-something million dollars” referenced by Rogan, this report notes, is the “uncharted territory” civil fine slammed on President Trump by radical socialist Manhattan Supreme Court Justice Arthur Engoron in a case masterminded by leftist lunatic New York State Attorney General Letitia James, who made a “trophy pledge” during her election campaign to “bag” her quarry President Trump, whom she branded “illegitimate”.
In what’s factually called a “Kafkaesque Civil Trial” that denied President Trump a jury, this report continues, legal experts shockingly observed: “The New York State laws used to go after Trump have NEVER been used in this way, historically, and while Trump may owe some back state taxes, if Judge Engoron is right, not a single bank claimed that it had been defrauded by Trump in the loans it had made to him...This is truly a victimless crime....Ms. James and Judge Engeron have essentially turned a vaguely worded New York State law into a modern day Bill of Attainder targeted at Donald Trump both for political gain and because they despise his political views and desperately want to call his truthfulness into question as he runs for President of the United States in 2024...The civil fraud judgment against Donald Trump is a travesty and an unjust political act rivaled only in American politics by the killing of former Treasury Secretary Alexander Hamilton by Vice President Aaron Burr”.
Under New York State law, this report details, President Trump most post a bond before he can appeal the outrageous ruling, but would require him to post 120% of what he owes with collateral — amounting to $557.5 million—President Trump employed the world’s largest privately held insurance brokerage firm Lockton Companies to secure the bond he needs, but whose President Gary Giulietti of the Northeast for the Lockton Companies revealed in an affidavit yesterday: “Based upon my more than 50 years in the insurance industry as well as my actual experience over the past several weeks during which I have been in contact with some of the largest insurance carriers in the world in an effort to try and obtain a bond for Defendants, it is my opinion that obtaining an appeal bond for $464 million (the "Judgment Amount") is not possible under the circumstances presented...Despite scouring the market, we have been unsuccessful in our effort to obtain a bond for the Judgment Amount for Defendants for the simple reason that obtaining an appeal bond for $464 million is a practical impossibility under the circumstances presented...Simply put, a bond of this size is rarely, if ever, seen...In the unusual circumstance that a bond of this size is issued, it is provided to the largest public companies in the world, not to individuals or privately held business...In the surety world, a bond of $100 million is considered large; an appeal bond of $464 million is commercially unattainable for a privately owned company...Such would be the case even for a company with billions of dollars in real estate unless they have cash or cash equivalents approaching $1 billion so as to collateralize the bond and have sufficient capital to run the business and satisfy its other obligations”.
Upon receiving the Lockton Companies affidavit yesterday, this report notes, the attorneys for President Trump filed a 29-page motion to stay the need for a bond, wherein it pleaded:
In deciding whether to enter a stay, the Court may consider "any relevant factor, including the presumptive merits of the appeal and any exigency or hardship confronting any party".
Here, Defendants' ongoing diligent efforts have proven that a bond in the judgment's full amount is "a practical impossibility".
These diligent efforts have included approaching about 30 surety companies through 4 separate brokers. A bond requirement of this enormous magnitude-effectively requiring cash reserves approaching $1 billion, is unprecedented for a private company.
Even when it comes to publicly traded companies, courts routinely waive or reduce the bond amount. Enforcing an impossible bond requirement as condition of appeal would inflict manifest irreparable injury on Defendants, and defeat or impair this Court's appellate jurisdiction. By contrast, waiving the bond requirement will impose no cognizable harm on the Attorney General.
The case involves no actual victims and no award of restitution, and she is fully protected by Defendants' real-estate holdings. This factor alone warrants a stay.
The manifold errors in Supreme Court's judgment further warrant a stay. Among other errors, Supreme Court disrespectfully disregarded this Court's previous ruling in this case that the statute of limitations applies and that "the continuing wrong doctrine does not delay or extend these periods".
Moreover, the Supreme Court ridiculously valued Mar-a-Lago, in Palm Beach, Florida, as being worth "between $18 million and $27.6 million", understating its actual value by about 50 to 100 times. Supreme Court imposed a massive disgorgement award in the absence of any evidence that the alleged misrepresentations caused the supposedly ill-gotten proceeds, in violation of the black-letter requirement that the disgorged amount must be causally connected to the violation. Supreme Court double- and triple-counted damages, and committed elementary errors in the process, such as conflating the proceeds of a sale with the profits from that sale. Such basic mistakes would have been prevented if this case had been allowed to be adjudicated in the Commercial Division, where it belonged.
These errors establish that the disgorgement award is unconstitutional.
It is "grossly disproportional" in violation of the Excessive Fines Clause of the United States Constitution and a parallel clause of the New York Constitution, as well as basic principles of due process and selective prosecution.
Because the judgment is unconstitutionally excessive, the bond requirement violates the Eighth Amendment as well, because it imposes an irrational, punitive sanction.
This case has no victims, no damages, and no actual fmancial losses. None of Defendants' sophisticated business partners testified that they would have changed any transaction in light of the alleged "misrepresentations" and all of these sophisticated parties, along with their law firms and other service providers, were well aware of the ironclad disclaimers present in all of the financial statements at issue.
With President Trump’s attorneys invoking the Eighth Amendment in their motion to stay yesterday, this report concludes, it placed the outrageous socialist ruling in the cross hairs of the landmark “Timbs v. Indiana” case decided unanimously by the United States Supreme Court on 20 February 2019, which concluded: “The Eighth Amendment’s Excessive Fines Clause is an incorporated protection applicable to the States”—Associate Justice Clarence Thomas wrote in his concurring opinion: “The Eighth Amendment’s prohibition on excessive fines applies in full to the States”—Associate Justice Neil Gorsuch wrote in his concurring opinion: “There can be no serious doubt that the Fourteenth Amendment requires the States to respect the freedom from excessive fines enshrined in the Eighth Amendment”—and whose majority opinion on behalf of the entire Supreme Court was written by the late Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg, who wrote in her landmark unanimous ruling:
The Excessive Fines Clause traces its venerable lineage back to at least 1215, when Magna Carta guaranteed that a Free-man shall not be amerced for a small fault, but after the manner of the fault; and for a great fault after the greatness thereof, saving to him his contenement.
As relevant here, Magna Carta required that economic sanctions “be proportioned to the wrong” and “not be so large as to deprive an offender of his livelihood”.
No man shall have a larger amercement imposed upon him, than his circumstances or personal estate will bear, taking no position on the question whether a person’s income and wealth are relevant considerations in judging the excessiveness of a fine.
Despite Magna Carta, imposition of excessive fines persisted. The 17th century Stuart kings, in particular, were criticized for using large fines to raise revenue, harass their political foes, and indefinitely detain those unable to pay.
For good reason, the protection against excessive fines has been a constant shield throughout Anglo-American history: Exorbitant tolls undermine other constitutional liberties.
Excessive fines can be used, for example, to retaliate against or chill the speech of political enemies, as the Stuarts’ critics learned several centuries ago.
[Note: Some words and/or phrases appearing in quotes in this report are English language approximations of Russian words/phrases having no exact counterpart.]
https://www.whatdoesitmean.com/tvi21.png
https://www.whatdoesitmean.com/tvi22.png
March 19, 2024
![](https://resources.faireconomy.media/images/emojis/64/00a9-fe0f.png?v=15.1)
[Note: Many governments and their intelligence services actively campaign against the information found in these reports so as not to alarm their citizens about the many catastrophic Earth changes and events to come, a stance that the Sisters of Sorcha Faal strongly disagree with in believing that it is every human being’s right to know the truth. Due to our mission’s conflicts with that of those governments, the responses of their ‘agents’ has been a longstanding misinformation/misdirection campaign designed to discredit us, and others like us, that is exampled in numerous places, including HERE.]
[Note: The WhatDoesItMean.com website was created for and donated to the Sisters of Sorcha Faal in 2003 by a small group of American computer experts led by the late global technology guru Wayne Green (1922-2013) to counter the propaganda being used by the West to promote their illegal 2003 invasion of Iraq.]
[Note: The word Kremlin (fortress inside a city) as used in this report refers to Russian citadels, including in Moscow, having cathedrals wherein female Schema monks (Orthodox nuns) reside, many of whom are devoted to the mission of the Sisters of Sorcha Faal.]
“A Very Strange State Of Affairs” Now Controls Fate Of World
Russia Prepares For Ice Age As America Descends Into Idiocracy
Return To Main Page
- Post #12,536
- Quote
- Mar 19, 2024 7:52pm Mar 19, 2024 7:52pm
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,787 Posts
https://off-guardian.org/2021/07/17/...-the-unvaxxed/
The Demonization of the Unvaxxed
Karen Hunt
https://off-guardian.org/wp-content/...900.jpg?x51581
“Children are the vessels into which adults pour their poison.”
Salman Rushdie, Midnight’s Children
In The Silver Chair, book 6 of CS Lewis’s magnificent The Chronicles of Narnia, the first pages describe a “mixed” school, meaning for boys and girls, that was…
not nearly so mixed as the minds of the people who ran it. These people had the idea that boys and girls should be allowed to do what they liked. And unfortunately what ten or fifteen of the biggest boys and girls liked best was bullying the others. All sort of things, horrid things, went on…[and] the people who did them were not expelled or punished. The Head said they were interesting psychological cases and sent for them and talked to them for hours. And if you knew the right sort of things to say to the Head, the main result was that you became rather a favorite than otherwise.”
The school is called Experiment House and it’s a drab, dull place where, even though it gives the appearance of “everyone doing what they liked,” it’s really a place where everyone must fit in and those who don’t are singled out and persecuted.
The two heroes of the story, Scrubb and Jill, don’t fit in at all, and are being chased by a group of bullies when they come up against the wall at the back of the garden. They are trapped, with nowhere else to turn. In the wall is a door that is always locked. But on this occasion, it opens.
They expected to see the gray, heathery slope of the moor going up and up to join the dull autumn sky. Instead, a blaze of sunlight met them. It poured through the doorway as the light of a June day pours into a garage when you open the door. It made the drops of water on the grass glitter like beads and showed up the dirtiness on Jill’s tear-stained face.”
And so, just as they are about to be caught, Scrubb grabs Jill’s hand and pulls her “through the door, out of the school grounds, out of England, out of our world into That Place.”
I wonder if children read these books anymore? I wonder if children read books at all anymore, or if they simply stare at a lit-up screen and talk into it and it talks back. These books could well be banned as white supremacist propaganda soon anyway. Who knows?
Lewis isn’t very nice to adults in his books. But that’s because adults aren’t very nice to children. Adults have lost their sense of wonderment. The boisterous actions of children are hateful because they remind adults of what they have lost. Children must conform.
Every child who is a little bit different understands exactly how Scrubb and Jill feel. For those who don’t fit in, school is a terrifying place of torture and dread.
What we are now doing to our children with masks and vaccines is a way to make children so compliant that they never think another thought that makes them question what is “behind the door in the wall.”
Children are the bargaining chips held over the heads of those parents who are also inclined towards being just a little bit different. The consequences of being different used to be so benign. Now they could very well be death.
Someone who was once considered a friend might sneeze or touch another person’s hand, or laugh too vigorously and they will become infected. Of course it is better to live in isolation, dependent on electronic devices for amusement and companionship. The world outside is just too unpredictable.
In my last piece Happily Slipping into Our Straight Jackets, I talked about the history of drugging our children and how it has led us to so easily give up our children on the altar of Big Pharma. This, in turn, led us to where we are now, allowing the State to administer an experimental vaccine to our children, and soon even to babies.
As of late May over 600,000 children have received a first dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccination. By late June, over ~7 million people younger than 18 have been vaccinated.
Yet it is still only green-lit for emergency use. Why are we doing this? Why are we using our children as guinea pigs to protect adults, when it’s been shown that this illness barely affects children, nor do they easily transmit it?
Most troubling, the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are the first-ever authorized vaccines to use mRNA. Let me just say, I am not an anti-vaxxer. However, I admit that since the start of this pandemic, I, along with a lot of other people, have begun to question things that I once simply believed because our government told me I should.
A year ago, I was living in Luxor, Egypt, having all kinds of wild adventures while my friends back home were locked in their houses and apartments. I’ve written about those experiences in a series of three essays here. Like most people, I already accepted that not everything I read in the news was true. But I never realized how bad the lies were until the pandemic struck.
From my vantage point far away across the world, in a place that didn’t close down because villages just can’t do that, I began to notice how every single news outlet said the same things. Used the same buzz words. I saw how the tension was building between President Trump and his pandemic task force, in particular Dr Fauci. I watched how at every turn, no matter what Trump said, right or wrong, he had to be discredited.
When Trump closed down travel to China, he was accused of xenophobia. To “send a message” Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi toured San Francisco’s Chinatown, saying there was no reason tourists or locals should be staying away. The day after Trump’s travel ban, Biden accused him of hysteria, xenophobia, and fear-mongering. And yet, months later the media made it out that Trump hadn’t done enough and if Biden had been in charge, he would have done much more. What would he have done? Kept the borders open as he is doing now? Everything is a contradiction.
When Trump tried to reassure the public so as not to create a panic, he was accused of purposefully lying to the American people. Yet this was information he got directly from Fauci and he has never been accused of the same. Fauci waffled back and forth on masks, admitting that he lied to the public about masks not being effective in stopping the spread of COVID. Apparently he did this so there wouldn’t be a shortage for health workers. The press doesn’t seem to have a problem with this.
But if our number-one infectious disease expert admits that he lied to us, how do we know he won’t do it again “for our own good?” What we have learned from all of this is that truth doesn’t matter. As long as the lies are making us feel the way we are supposed to feel, we swallow them.
How were we supposed to know Fauci was right and all the other scientific experts who disagreed with him were wrong? It didn’t matter. There could be no dissent.
I saw how information was kept from the public. I became frustrated and began looking for information elsewhere. I had never really listened to Fox News. So, I checked it out. I quickly learned that I could not share anything I discovered on social media. I would be laughed at, screamed at, and unfriended. I couldn’t say that it was giving me a perspective I wasn’t getting on CNN. Not necessarily right or wrong. Just another perspective. And I needed at least one opposing viewpoint from which to compare the State approved information I was receiving.
New media outlets cropped up like Newsmax. I began to appreciate The Epoch Times. I listened to and watched the videos of journalists like Andy Ngo who were out in the field filming raw footage of the riots that mainstream reporters refused to let us see. I read his book, Unmasked, and learned how he was discredited by mainstream reporters. I have a lot of respect for Andy Ngo and I am grateful for his courageous reporting, in the face of physical attacks and death threats that became so bad, he had to move out of the country.
Way back in April of 2020, Mike Pompeo demanded the truth from Beijing as to whether COVID-19 escaped from the Wuhan lab during experiments and China covered it up by blaming ‘wet’ food markets. This sounded plausible to me. Yet, Pompeo now says he received pushback against any type of investigation. Like so many other plausible theories put forward by Trump and his team, all reference to COVID originating in a lab were removed from the internet. Anyone daring to talk about it was labeled a conspiracy theorist and shut out of their social media accounts.
Now, suddenly, it’s all over the news. A year after TRASHING the theory that COVID originated from a Wuhan lab because Trump supported the suggestion – America’s woke mainstream news outlets suddenly start asking if it’s true!
Why? That is a mystery I would like to find the answer for.
And then there’s Hydroxychloroquine. And, I should add Ivermectin. Although I don’t go into it here, it’s the same scenario and you will see it in the news a lot lately—too late for so many people.
In April 2020, a small French study showed HCQ combined with azithromycin, an antibiotic, was safe and effective in lowering COVID-19’s virus count in patients who had first contracted the disease. Mr. Trump immediately cited the study — as it was good news — the world was at the height of the pandemic and HCQ had been approved and used by physicians for 85 years to treat both malaria and some autoimmune diseases.
Instead of this being greeted as hopeful, it was immediately trashed in the media. Fake news. Not following the science. But I wondered. It didn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that Big Pharma in collusion with anyone investing into it had good reason to discredit HCQ. The medication was cheap and easily administered. If millions of people started taking this drug, in conjunction with other therapeutics, and they started getting better, what justification would there be for vaccinating the entire world?
When, in July of 2020, a group calling themselves America’s Frontline Doctors, stood upon the steps of our capital building and spoke of the merits of hydroxychloroquine, describing masks as unnecessary, they were derided as quacks. A video of their impassioned speech immediately went viral and was removed from all social media by the next day.
It became apparent to me that anyone, no matter how prominent, no matter how upstanding, who dared to question the State-sanctioned propaganda were being silenced, discredited and fired from their positions. Why weren’t we listening to them?
If, as Fauci was always saying and continues to say to this day, “we simply don’t know [fill in the blank]”, why wouldn’t they welcome the help of a wider range of expertise? These were doctors who put their reputations on the line to speak out. They were in the trenches, actually treating patients. They weren’t theorists like Dr Fauci, playing god in laboratories, receiving grants from Big Pharma with the understanding they needed to reach the required conclusion.
I was inclined to think maybe these doctors had something important to say. Yet still, when I tried to make that suggestion on social media, again, I was shot down. People were really getting worried about me. I was being brainwashed.
By whom? I was merely comparing possibilities. Once upon a time, that was called critical thinking. Now, everyone’s minds were completely closed to any inquiries. I had never experienced anything like it.
Perhaps future generations will look back on the denial of HCQ and Ivermectin to the public to treat this illness as one of the greatest crimes in history. How many lives could have been saved if these inexpensive and easily accessible drugs, along with other therapeutics, had been used early on? Perhaps millions.
Renowned public health officials from around the world denounced the draconian measures being taken in “The Great Barrington Declaration:”
The Great Barrington Declaration – As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists we have grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies, and recommend an approach we call Focused Protection.
Immediately, all of these experts were discredited and silenced. The all-encompassing power to control information was becoming apparent.
Kary Mullis, the inventor of the PCR test himself said it was not a reliable test for viruses. His words were silenced, or twisted around to mean something else, even though what he said was very plain.
In the meantime, the flu magically disappeared. That was because of masks and lockdowns we were told. But then, why didn’t it work for COVID?
If even the testing method we were using wasn’t accurate, or could be fiddled with to create more or less positive results when needed, how could we be sure of anything?
We have a video from 2017 where Dr. Fauci actually warned of a pandemic and a surprise outbreak. But it doesn’t seem to be of significance.
We have Dr. Fauci’s treasure trove of emails, where it looks like he potentially tried to hide the very real possibility that the virus came from the Wuhan lab. The emails show him flip-flopping on masks, justifying it by saying well, the science changed.
But whose science? When only one voice is allowed—that being the voice of those who have everything to gain from hiding truth—then “science” becomes a tool for control rather than a method by which we find truth.
Despite the revelations, the state-run media, are still enamored with Fauci. Asking him delicate questions, drooling over his sainthood, just as they do over Biden’s grandfatherly and completely nonthreatening demeanor.
That is, except when Biden wakes up long enough, as he did at a recent event, to squint down at a little girl in the audience, of not more than 10 years of age, and say,
I uh, I love those barrettes in your hair, man. I tell you what, look at her. She looks like she’s 19 years old sitting there like a little lady with her legs crossed.”
A poll during voting showed that nearly half of Biden voters said their vote wasn’t for Biden so much as it was against Trump.
Anything would be better than that racist maniac Orange Man Bad.
Better to lie, better to have people die without the therapeutic drugs that could have saved them, better to let China off the hook, than to admit Trump was right about anything.
Fill people with so much fear and hatred they don’t suspect the obvious: That the gods behind the curtain; the likes of Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates, are gaining absolute power over our minds and bodies and we are giving it up to them without blinking an eye.
During the pandemic the nation’s 644 billionaires gained almost $1 trillion in total net worth, according to a new analysis, while the poorer Americans struggle with lost wages and jobs. Doesn’t that mean anything to anybody? Aren’t the implications obvious?
Apparently not. I haven’t finished my Netflix series. Have you seen it? What do you recommend I watch next?
Take care of us. Keep us safe. Lull us to sleep with our smartphones and our drugs, cover our faces, administer our vaccines.
Once Trump was gone, anyone who thought the same, namely anyone who questioned the State, needed to be discredited as well. A line was drawn. There was no middle ground.
Either you were a masker and a vaxxer or you were a heretic. And we all know what happens to heretics.
When January 6th occurred, Biden called it the worst terrorist event in our history. Domestic terrorism, that’s what we are up against now. Even though those who stormed the capital were let in by the police, had no weapons, and killed no one. Called murderers when the only person murdered that day was Ashli Babbitt. Journalist Tayler Hansen, @TaylerUSA, who filmed Ashli Babbitt’s death, identified the officer responsible for the shooting as Lieutenant Mike Byrd, a Black man. Hansen was subsequently arrested. True to form, the mainstream media showed no interest in investigating Ashli Babbitt’s death.
Obviously. It would have gone against the narrative.
In a recent speech, Biden declared white supremacists the ‘most lethal threat’ to US, as he marked Tulsa race massacre.
Where is this terrible, out of control threat? To compare what happened that day when a bunch of losers entered the capital—video footage even showing police officers inviting them in—to 9/11 is an insult to all who died when terrorists rammed those planes into the World Trade Center. 2,977 people were killed that day and more than 6,000 injured.
It is an insult to all who died during the BLM and Antifa riots, to those who were trapped inside government buildings when rioters tried to burn them down, to small neighborhood businesses that were destroyed. BLM riots caused over $1 billion of damage, ‘yet media says they’re mostly peaceful’.
Most of all, it’s an insult to the nearly 300 children who were shot and killed in 2020, a 50% increase from 2019, and the more than 5,100 children aged 17 and younger were killed or injured, within their own neighborhoods.
So, who are these white supremacists endangering our country? They are fast becoming defined as every person who does not agree with the State.
How do you succeed in silencing almost 80,000,000 people or maybe even more? Trump warned that when he was gone, his attackers would not be finished. “Then they will come for you.”
Anyone who refuses to submit to this vaccine will receive this label. Anyone who refuses to submit their child to this vaccine will be given this label. It won’t matter whether you voted for Trump or not. That will be the label assigned to you.
Proof of vaccination is already being required in restaurants, where the unvaxxed must sit in a special section, wearing masks.
There are countless cases of employees being fired from jobs for not taking the jab. If you want to keep your job, you better take the jab.
Although we were previously told the federal government would leave mask mandates to local government and businesses, Homeland Security now says it is taking a close look at vaccine passports for international travel.
In January 2021, the Los Angeles Unified School District announced that it plans to require its students to receive the COVID vaccine once it is approved and available. Los Angeles Unified is the nation’s largest school district.
And so, we have now been divided into two camps. The vaxxed and the unvaxxed. Who will suffer the most from this? Who is already suffering the most?
Our children.
I hear from parents that they are receiving messages from schools to get their children on the waiting list to be vaccinated. The vaccine will be available in the fall for kids twelve and up. The parents who contact me are against vaccinating their children and say they will never give in. I don’t think they realize how bad it could get.
All the “good” parents will line up for it. All the “good” children will be rewarded for obeying the State by being allowed to attend school free of masks and lead a “normal” life. The children whose parents refuse will have to continue wearing masks. They will have to sit in a special section, eat and play separately.
As I showed in my previous essay with drugging children diagnosed with attention deficit disorder, parents who do not conform to vaccinating their children will be seen as irresponsible. Those who are vaccinated will accuse them of selfishness, just as we see adults accusing the unvaxxed of this. Of putting the entire community as risk.
Imagine being those children, being used as examples of the evils of nonconformity. They will become pariahs among their peers and their teachers. They will be mocked, shamed and shunned.
Already, children at this age just want to fit in. The unvaxxed children will go home and beg for their parents to get them vaccinated. Children will turn against their parents. Those few kids who are natural free thinkers, like Scrubb and Jill, will suffer more than they ever have in the past. They will not even have the satisfaction of being thought of as cool by the outside crowd. There won’t be any outside crowd.
Only the vaxxed and the unvaxxed.
Where adults have been allowed to remove their masks — although many choose not to — children are still being forced to wear them. While the nation debates Dr Fauci’s emails and how much he really knew, how much information was hidden, how deeply involved he was in research at the Wuhan lab; all these things that for so long were labeled conspiracy theories and are now turning out to be true; our children continue to suffer the abuse of covering their mouths and noses eight hours a day both inside the classroom and outside in terrible heat as they attempt to play.
But according to parents I’ve spoken to, when their kids go home, they don’t go outside. Instead, they are on their tablets or i-pads, interacting on Tiktok, Instagram and Snapchat. They are uninterested in exercise. They are terrified of germs. And parents, busy online themselves, are ignorant as to what their children are engaging in.
During April to October 2020 in the US, emergency room visits linked to mental health problems (e.g. anxiety) for children aged 5-11 increased by nearly 25% and increased by 31% for those aged 12-17 years old as compared to the same period in 2019. During the month of June 2020, 25% of persons aged 18 to 24 in the US reported suicidal ideation. While some of this may be related to the pandemic, we suspect that it is largely a function of our response to the pandemic.
While “the most common experiences reported of online issues involved bullying or generally being made to feel uncomfortable, one in three participants reported having had an online sexual interaction,” a report said. Thorn report: Why you kids shouldn’t be on TikTik or Instagram | 7NEWS.com.au
Most participants reported receiving a “sext”, while 18 per cent had received a nude photo or video and 18 per cent had been asked to send a nude photo or video.
Children as young as five years old know how to use phones and tablets. It is their language. Jackie, a friend of mine who is a mother of a toddler and a social media influencer on Tiktok says “You wouldn’t believe what children are accessing online nowadays.”
The gods above us use their power to suppress knowledge of all that might expose them as the Machiavellian fraudsters that they are, yet no one is protecting our children from dangerous information.
What is a parent to do?
Move to the country. Start a commune. Start neighborhood learning centers with like-minded parents. I have heard many parents say, “If they try to force me to vaccinate my children, I will take them out.”
All well and good. But there are many who cannot afford to do this. Many will have no choice but to give in to the State. If they don’t, just as happened to parents who resisted putting their children on Ritalin, they will be accused of abuse and perhaps even have their children taken from them.
Just as happened to Patricia Weathers, who in 2020 took her 9-year-old son off an antidepressant and medication similar to Ritalin, because he was constantly gnawing at his shirt collar and had began to hear “voices.”
As a result, her son’s elementary school accused her of medical neglect and called child-abuse investigators. Years of battling the school in the courts took its toll until she finally won in court. But most people don’t have the knowledge or the resources to sustain such a battle.
School officials can force a parent to seek out a professional, such as a psychiatrist. And can they expel a child who doesn’t take medication or intimidate parents by threatening to phone social services or child-abuse investigators? Weathers says that’s what happened to her, and there are reports of other similar cases around the country.
All of this intimidation and training to comply was a precursor to what is happening now. With psychiatric drugs, the only person the State can claim you are putting at risk is your own child. With vaccines, they can claim you are putting the entire country at risk. Millions of lives are on your hands and the hands of other deplorables like you.
My daughter and her husband spent the past year in Slovenia where their two boys, ages three and two, have gone to daycare free of masks. In July, they are moving back to Los Angeles. They are against masks and the vaccine, both for themselves and their children.
They could not find a single daycare in their area that didn’t require children to wear masks.
And those daycares all reassured her — as if it would make her feel better — that once the vaccine was available and the tiny tots had taken it, they would be allowed to go mask free. At last, my daughter found one daycare that didn’t require masks. It was a private Christian school. So, that is where they will put their boys.
We already see signs of Christians schools being demonized.
A March article in Ms Magazine declared How Christian Schools and Homeschooling Teach Supremacist Conspiracies.
Statistically, homeschoolers do much better with learning and their futures than public school children. Yet academics such as Prof. Elizabeth Bartholet, are leading the charge against those who actively resist public schools and she believes that the generation currently being homeschooled is an eventual, if not active, breeding ground for racism, sexism, and isolationism.
“Many homeschool precisely because they want to isolate their children from ideas and values central to public education and to our democracy. Many promote racial segregation and female subservience. Many question science. Many are determined to keep their children from exposure to views that might enable autonomous choice about their future lives,” she claims.
My daughter certainly is not a white supremacist. She is not a Trump supporter. She has no interest in politics. She just wants to follow what she believes is best for her children.
Yet, if things keep going on as they are now, it is quite possible that anyone who doesn’t adhere to the “ideas and values central to public education and to our democracy,” meaning what is acceptable to the totalitarian state, will automatically be considered enemies of the state and as such, in need to reeducation, imprisonment, or perhaps even worse.
Some might accuse me of alarmism. Nothing would make me happier than to be proved an alarmist. However, unless people stand up and speak out, this is surely what we are facing. And I think those who are reading this who don’t want their children submitted to this experimentation and abuse know in their hearts this might well be what they are facing.
I want to end with a little story. I was raised by a Mennonite mother. There was much I rebelled against as a child, teenager. Despite my doubts and rebellions, I always knew I had a history to be proud of; a foundation of strong, courageous people who stood up for what they believed, even in the face of death. Before her passing my mother left each of her children a booklet with the history of our people.
She called the booklet A Far Journey. It tells the story of the Anabaptists who split from the Catholic Church and followed the teachings of a Dutch preacher named Menno Simmons, born in 1496.
This was a time of great upheaval. The Protestants were fighting for the right to free information for all. No longer should the gateway to God be blocked by priests and popes. No longer should the common man be kept from reading and interpreting the Sacred Scriptures for himself. This free information for all, brought about by the invention of the printing press, threatened the hold the powerful had on the ignorant souls beneath them.
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ca.1875, Paris, France — France: Paris Besieged By The Normans, A. D. 835. Guizot’s History of France. — Image by
Bettmann/CORBIS
Bloody battles ensued. The cause became politicized, of course, and used by both sides to gain more power. But as always, there were the common people who stood up for their rights. The Martyrs Mirror, a collection of records, letters and court accounts tells the stories of many of those who remained faithful and paid the price of their lives.
There is one letter in the collection from Janneken Muntsdorg, written from prison to her one-month-old daughter, also named Janneken. The mother bore her child in prison and the girl was taken from her. Knowing she would never see her daughter again, she wrote a letter for her to read one day. Part of it goes thus:
The true love of God and wisdom of the Father strengthen you in virtue, my dearest child; …and strengthen and confirm your understanding in His truth […] for if we were to continue in the world, we would have had no trouble. For when we were one with the world and practiced idolatry, and loved all manner of unrighteousness, we could live at peace with the world; but when we desired to fear God and to shun such improper ways…then they did not leave us in peace; then our blood was sought; then we had to be a prey to everyone, and become a spectacle to all the world. They seek here to murder and burn us; we are placed at posts and stakes, and our flesh is given as food to the worms.”
Words too drastic? I think not.
I recite these words if only to wake people up from their sleep! If only to remind us that many have gone before who suffered and died for the freedoms we enjoy. The freedoms to read and write, to worship and pray and speak as we choose. Not just for Christians, but for everyone. Everyone. The freedoms to agree and disagree. Even to believe outrageous “conspiracy” theories.
The internet has created a crisis even greater than the invention of the printing press. In those days, the information of the texts was limited to biblical knowledge. As time went on, that information grew. Now, a seemingly infinite wealth of information is at our fingertips. We are being told that information is dangerous. That we need to put it into the hands of the powerful once again. We must trust them as the doorkeepers between our minds and the mysteries of the universe.
Just as the reformers stood up for their rights to interpret texts on their own, so we must stand up for our rights to do the same.
Perhaps the day will come when the individual will submit to the will of the State and we will be more machine than we are flesh and blood. I know men like Elon Musk dream of this. He says we need these changes if we want to explore the universe, to travel to other planets. We need to evolve. I would love nothing more than to explore other planets. Perhaps losing our humanity little by little is the price we must pay for that “advancement.” If science fiction is any indication—and I tend to believe science fiction sometimes more than actual science—this is probably inevitable.
But that day is not today. For now, we must fight for the right to hold onto our freedoms. Oh, we can have intellectual discussions about how we aren’t really “free” and all of that, but I do know the difference between freedom and bondage.
I walked through Dachau as a child. I stood at the Berlin Wall and crossed the barrier from the land of the free into the land of the oppressed. From one step to the next, I passed from light into darkness. I was fortunate. I was allowed to pass back again, horribly aware of all the yearning souls I was leaving behind.
Don’t let the lies lull you to sleep. Don’t let cynicism overcome you.
I have faith that there will always be at least one Scrubb and one Jill in every school. Those who refuse to fit in. Those who still see the mystery beyond the wall.
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Those who find the way out of darkness and into light.
I started with Salmon Rushdie and I will end with him. I saw him once at a party at a club, back in the 90s. He was a very ugly man, but he was with a very beautiful woman. I wondered about him. He looked so insignificant, yet what power his words had! So much power that they were dangerous to the regime in Iran and a price was put on his head. Yet there he sat, enjoying his life.
In those heretical Satanic Verses, he wrote:
What kind of idea are you? Are you the kind that compromises, does deals, accommodates itself to society, aims to find a niche, to survive; or are you the cussed, bloody-minded, ramrod-backed type of damn-fool notion that would rather break than sway with the breeze? – The kind that will almost certainly, ninety-nine times out of hundred, be smashed to bits; but, the hundredth time, will change the world.”
We may be smashed to bits. Still, let’s be the ones who change the world.
Cover image The Plague is by an incredible artist and writer, Eugen Dashine, you can check out his work @ Deviant Art MeethOs
Karen Hunt [aka KH Mesek] is an author and illustrator of 19 children’s books, the YA series Night Angels Chronicles and the science fiction novel, LUMINARIA: Tales of Earth & Oran, Love & Revenge, to be published in August. She recently returned from living in Luxor, Egypt where she started the first boxing club for girls. Having lived and traveled extensively behind the Iron Curtain, she is devoting her time to writing essays related to the loss of freedom in the West. You can read more of her work, or sign up to her newsletter, here. or follow her on twitter.
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The Demonization of the Unvaxxed
Karen Hunt
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“Children are the vessels into which adults pour their poison.”
Salman Rushdie, Midnight’s Children
In The Silver Chair, book 6 of CS Lewis’s magnificent The Chronicles of Narnia, the first pages describe a “mixed” school, meaning for boys and girls, that was…
not nearly so mixed as the minds of the people who ran it. These people had the idea that boys and girls should be allowed to do what they liked. And unfortunately what ten or fifteen of the biggest boys and girls liked best was bullying the others. All sort of things, horrid things, went on…[and] the people who did them were not expelled or punished. The Head said they were interesting psychological cases and sent for them and talked to them for hours. And if you knew the right sort of things to say to the Head, the main result was that you became rather a favorite than otherwise.”
The school is called Experiment House and it’s a drab, dull place where, even though it gives the appearance of “everyone doing what they liked,” it’s really a place where everyone must fit in and those who don’t are singled out and persecuted.
The two heroes of the story, Scrubb and Jill, don’t fit in at all, and are being chased by a group of bullies when they come up against the wall at the back of the garden. They are trapped, with nowhere else to turn. In the wall is a door that is always locked. But on this occasion, it opens.
They expected to see the gray, heathery slope of the moor going up and up to join the dull autumn sky. Instead, a blaze of sunlight met them. It poured through the doorway as the light of a June day pours into a garage when you open the door. It made the drops of water on the grass glitter like beads and showed up the dirtiness on Jill’s tear-stained face.”
And so, just as they are about to be caught, Scrubb grabs Jill’s hand and pulls her “through the door, out of the school grounds, out of England, out of our world into That Place.”
I wonder if children read these books anymore? I wonder if children read books at all anymore, or if they simply stare at a lit-up screen and talk into it and it talks back. These books could well be banned as white supremacist propaganda soon anyway. Who knows?
Lewis isn’t very nice to adults in his books. But that’s because adults aren’t very nice to children. Adults have lost their sense of wonderment. The boisterous actions of children are hateful because they remind adults of what they have lost. Children must conform.
Every child who is a little bit different understands exactly how Scrubb and Jill feel. For those who don’t fit in, school is a terrifying place of torture and dread.
What we are now doing to our children with masks and vaccines is a way to make children so compliant that they never think another thought that makes them question what is “behind the door in the wall.”
Children are the bargaining chips held over the heads of those parents who are also inclined towards being just a little bit different. The consequences of being different used to be so benign. Now they could very well be death.
Someone who was once considered a friend might sneeze or touch another person’s hand, or laugh too vigorously and they will become infected. Of course it is better to live in isolation, dependent on electronic devices for amusement and companionship. The world outside is just too unpredictable.
In my last piece Happily Slipping into Our Straight Jackets, I talked about the history of drugging our children and how it has led us to so easily give up our children on the altar of Big Pharma. This, in turn, led us to where we are now, allowing the State to administer an experimental vaccine to our children, and soon even to babies.
As of late May over 600,000 children have received a first dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccination. By late June, over ~7 million people younger than 18 have been vaccinated.
Yet it is still only green-lit for emergency use. Why are we doing this? Why are we using our children as guinea pigs to protect adults, when it’s been shown that this illness barely affects children, nor do they easily transmit it?
Most troubling, the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are the first-ever authorized vaccines to use mRNA. Let me just say, I am not an anti-vaxxer. However, I admit that since the start of this pandemic, I, along with a lot of other people, have begun to question things that I once simply believed because our government told me I should.
A year ago, I was living in Luxor, Egypt, having all kinds of wild adventures while my friends back home were locked in their houses and apartments. I’ve written about those experiences in a series of three essays here. Like most people, I already accepted that not everything I read in the news was true. But I never realized how bad the lies were until the pandemic struck.
From my vantage point far away across the world, in a place that didn’t close down because villages just can’t do that, I began to notice how every single news outlet said the same things. Used the same buzz words. I saw how the tension was building between President Trump and his pandemic task force, in particular Dr Fauci. I watched how at every turn, no matter what Trump said, right or wrong, he had to be discredited.
When Trump closed down travel to China, he was accused of xenophobia. To “send a message” Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi toured San Francisco’s Chinatown, saying there was no reason tourists or locals should be staying away. The day after Trump’s travel ban, Biden accused him of hysteria, xenophobia, and fear-mongering. And yet, months later the media made it out that Trump hadn’t done enough and if Biden had been in charge, he would have done much more. What would he have done? Kept the borders open as he is doing now? Everything is a contradiction.
When Trump tried to reassure the public so as not to create a panic, he was accused of purposefully lying to the American people. Yet this was information he got directly from Fauci and he has never been accused of the same. Fauci waffled back and forth on masks, admitting that he lied to the public about masks not being effective in stopping the spread of COVID. Apparently he did this so there wouldn’t be a shortage for health workers. The press doesn’t seem to have a problem with this.
But if our number-one infectious disease expert admits that he lied to us, how do we know he won’t do it again “for our own good?” What we have learned from all of this is that truth doesn’t matter. As long as the lies are making us feel the way we are supposed to feel, we swallow them.
How were we supposed to know Fauci was right and all the other scientific experts who disagreed with him were wrong? It didn’t matter. There could be no dissent.
I saw how information was kept from the public. I became frustrated and began looking for information elsewhere. I had never really listened to Fox News. So, I checked it out. I quickly learned that I could not share anything I discovered on social media. I would be laughed at, screamed at, and unfriended. I couldn’t say that it was giving me a perspective I wasn’t getting on CNN. Not necessarily right or wrong. Just another perspective. And I needed at least one opposing viewpoint from which to compare the State approved information I was receiving.
New media outlets cropped up like Newsmax. I began to appreciate The Epoch Times. I listened to and watched the videos of journalists like Andy Ngo who were out in the field filming raw footage of the riots that mainstream reporters refused to let us see. I read his book, Unmasked, and learned how he was discredited by mainstream reporters. I have a lot of respect for Andy Ngo and I am grateful for his courageous reporting, in the face of physical attacks and death threats that became so bad, he had to move out of the country.
Way back in April of 2020, Mike Pompeo demanded the truth from Beijing as to whether COVID-19 escaped from the Wuhan lab during experiments and China covered it up by blaming ‘wet’ food markets. This sounded plausible to me. Yet, Pompeo now says he received pushback against any type of investigation. Like so many other plausible theories put forward by Trump and his team, all reference to COVID originating in a lab were removed from the internet. Anyone daring to talk about it was labeled a conspiracy theorist and shut out of their social media accounts.
Now, suddenly, it’s all over the news. A year after TRASHING the theory that COVID originated from a Wuhan lab because Trump supported the suggestion – America’s woke mainstream news outlets suddenly start asking if it’s true!
Why? That is a mystery I would like to find the answer for.
And then there’s Hydroxychloroquine. And, I should add Ivermectin. Although I don’t go into it here, it’s the same scenario and you will see it in the news a lot lately—too late for so many people.
In April 2020, a small French study showed HCQ combined with azithromycin, an antibiotic, was safe and effective in lowering COVID-19’s virus count in patients who had first contracted the disease. Mr. Trump immediately cited the study — as it was good news — the world was at the height of the pandemic and HCQ had been approved and used by physicians for 85 years to treat both malaria and some autoimmune diseases.
Instead of this being greeted as hopeful, it was immediately trashed in the media. Fake news. Not following the science. But I wondered. It didn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that Big Pharma in collusion with anyone investing into it had good reason to discredit HCQ. The medication was cheap and easily administered. If millions of people started taking this drug, in conjunction with other therapeutics, and they started getting better, what justification would there be for vaccinating the entire world?
When, in July of 2020, a group calling themselves America’s Frontline Doctors, stood upon the steps of our capital building and spoke of the merits of hydroxychloroquine, describing masks as unnecessary, they were derided as quacks. A video of their impassioned speech immediately went viral and was removed from all social media by the next day.
It became apparent to me that anyone, no matter how prominent, no matter how upstanding, who dared to question the State-sanctioned propaganda were being silenced, discredited and fired from their positions. Why weren’t we listening to them?
If, as Fauci was always saying and continues to say to this day, “we simply don’t know [fill in the blank]”, why wouldn’t they welcome the help of a wider range of expertise? These were doctors who put their reputations on the line to speak out. They were in the trenches, actually treating patients. They weren’t theorists like Dr Fauci, playing god in laboratories, receiving grants from Big Pharma with the understanding they needed to reach the required conclusion.
I was inclined to think maybe these doctors had something important to say. Yet still, when I tried to make that suggestion on social media, again, I was shot down. People were really getting worried about me. I was being brainwashed.
By whom? I was merely comparing possibilities. Once upon a time, that was called critical thinking. Now, everyone’s minds were completely closed to any inquiries. I had never experienced anything like it.
Perhaps future generations will look back on the denial of HCQ and Ivermectin to the public to treat this illness as one of the greatest crimes in history. How many lives could have been saved if these inexpensive and easily accessible drugs, along with other therapeutics, had been used early on? Perhaps millions.
Renowned public health officials from around the world denounced the draconian measures being taken in “The Great Barrington Declaration:”
The Great Barrington Declaration – As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists we have grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies, and recommend an approach we call Focused Protection.
Immediately, all of these experts were discredited and silenced. The all-encompassing power to control information was becoming apparent.
Kary Mullis, the inventor of the PCR test himself said it was not a reliable test for viruses. His words were silenced, or twisted around to mean something else, even though what he said was very plain.
In the meantime, the flu magically disappeared. That was because of masks and lockdowns we were told. But then, why didn’t it work for COVID?
If even the testing method we were using wasn’t accurate, or could be fiddled with to create more or less positive results when needed, how could we be sure of anything?
We have a video from 2017 where Dr. Fauci actually warned of a pandemic and a surprise outbreak. But it doesn’t seem to be of significance.
We have Dr. Fauci’s treasure trove of emails, where it looks like he potentially tried to hide the very real possibility that the virus came from the Wuhan lab. The emails show him flip-flopping on masks, justifying it by saying well, the science changed.
But whose science? When only one voice is allowed—that being the voice of those who have everything to gain from hiding truth—then “science” becomes a tool for control rather than a method by which we find truth.
Despite the revelations, the state-run media, are still enamored with Fauci. Asking him delicate questions, drooling over his sainthood, just as they do over Biden’s grandfatherly and completely nonthreatening demeanor.
That is, except when Biden wakes up long enough, as he did at a recent event, to squint down at a little girl in the audience, of not more than 10 years of age, and say,
I uh, I love those barrettes in your hair, man. I tell you what, look at her. She looks like she’s 19 years old sitting there like a little lady with her legs crossed.”
A poll during voting showed that nearly half of Biden voters said their vote wasn’t for Biden so much as it was against Trump.
Anything would be better than that racist maniac Orange Man Bad.
Better to lie, better to have people die without the therapeutic drugs that could have saved them, better to let China off the hook, than to admit Trump was right about anything.
Fill people with so much fear and hatred they don’t suspect the obvious: That the gods behind the curtain; the likes of Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates, are gaining absolute power over our minds and bodies and we are giving it up to them without blinking an eye.
During the pandemic the nation’s 644 billionaires gained almost $1 trillion in total net worth, according to a new analysis, while the poorer Americans struggle with lost wages and jobs. Doesn’t that mean anything to anybody? Aren’t the implications obvious?
Apparently not. I haven’t finished my Netflix series. Have you seen it? What do you recommend I watch next?
Take care of us. Keep us safe. Lull us to sleep with our smartphones and our drugs, cover our faces, administer our vaccines.
Once Trump was gone, anyone who thought the same, namely anyone who questioned the State, needed to be discredited as well. A line was drawn. There was no middle ground.
Either you were a masker and a vaxxer or you were a heretic. And we all know what happens to heretics.
When January 6th occurred, Biden called it the worst terrorist event in our history. Domestic terrorism, that’s what we are up against now. Even though those who stormed the capital were let in by the police, had no weapons, and killed no one. Called murderers when the only person murdered that day was Ashli Babbitt. Journalist Tayler Hansen, @TaylerUSA, who filmed Ashli Babbitt’s death, identified the officer responsible for the shooting as Lieutenant Mike Byrd, a Black man. Hansen was subsequently arrested. True to form, the mainstream media showed no interest in investigating Ashli Babbitt’s death.
Obviously. It would have gone against the narrative.
In a recent speech, Biden declared white supremacists the ‘most lethal threat’ to US, as he marked Tulsa race massacre.
Where is this terrible, out of control threat? To compare what happened that day when a bunch of losers entered the capital—video footage even showing police officers inviting them in—to 9/11 is an insult to all who died when terrorists rammed those planes into the World Trade Center. 2,977 people were killed that day and more than 6,000 injured.
It is an insult to all who died during the BLM and Antifa riots, to those who were trapped inside government buildings when rioters tried to burn them down, to small neighborhood businesses that were destroyed. BLM riots caused over $1 billion of damage, ‘yet media says they’re mostly peaceful’.
Most of all, it’s an insult to the nearly 300 children who were shot and killed in 2020, a 50% increase from 2019, and the more than 5,100 children aged 17 and younger were killed or injured, within their own neighborhoods.
So, who are these white supremacists endangering our country? They are fast becoming defined as every person who does not agree with the State.
How do you succeed in silencing almost 80,000,000 people or maybe even more? Trump warned that when he was gone, his attackers would not be finished. “Then they will come for you.”
Anyone who refuses to submit to this vaccine will receive this label. Anyone who refuses to submit their child to this vaccine will be given this label. It won’t matter whether you voted for Trump or not. That will be the label assigned to you.
Proof of vaccination is already being required in restaurants, where the unvaxxed must sit in a special section, wearing masks.
There are countless cases of employees being fired from jobs for not taking the jab. If you want to keep your job, you better take the jab.
Although we were previously told the federal government would leave mask mandates to local government and businesses, Homeland Security now says it is taking a close look at vaccine passports for international travel.
In January 2021, the Los Angeles Unified School District announced that it plans to require its students to receive the COVID vaccine once it is approved and available. Los Angeles Unified is the nation’s largest school district.
And so, we have now been divided into two camps. The vaxxed and the unvaxxed. Who will suffer the most from this? Who is already suffering the most?
Our children.
I hear from parents that they are receiving messages from schools to get their children on the waiting list to be vaccinated. The vaccine will be available in the fall for kids twelve and up. The parents who contact me are against vaccinating their children and say they will never give in. I don’t think they realize how bad it could get.
All the “good” parents will line up for it. All the “good” children will be rewarded for obeying the State by being allowed to attend school free of masks and lead a “normal” life. The children whose parents refuse will have to continue wearing masks. They will have to sit in a special section, eat and play separately.
As I showed in my previous essay with drugging children diagnosed with attention deficit disorder, parents who do not conform to vaccinating their children will be seen as irresponsible. Those who are vaccinated will accuse them of selfishness, just as we see adults accusing the unvaxxed of this. Of putting the entire community as risk.
Imagine being those children, being used as examples of the evils of nonconformity. They will become pariahs among their peers and their teachers. They will be mocked, shamed and shunned.
Already, children at this age just want to fit in. The unvaxxed children will go home and beg for their parents to get them vaccinated. Children will turn against their parents. Those few kids who are natural free thinkers, like Scrubb and Jill, will suffer more than they ever have in the past. They will not even have the satisfaction of being thought of as cool by the outside crowd. There won’t be any outside crowd.
Only the vaxxed and the unvaxxed.
Where adults have been allowed to remove their masks — although many choose not to — children are still being forced to wear them. While the nation debates Dr Fauci’s emails and how much he really knew, how much information was hidden, how deeply involved he was in research at the Wuhan lab; all these things that for so long were labeled conspiracy theories and are now turning out to be true; our children continue to suffer the abuse of covering their mouths and noses eight hours a day both inside the classroom and outside in terrible heat as they attempt to play.
But according to parents I’ve spoken to, when their kids go home, they don’t go outside. Instead, they are on their tablets or i-pads, interacting on Tiktok, Instagram and Snapchat. They are uninterested in exercise. They are terrified of germs. And parents, busy online themselves, are ignorant as to what their children are engaging in.
During April to October 2020 in the US, emergency room visits linked to mental health problems (e.g. anxiety) for children aged 5-11 increased by nearly 25% and increased by 31% for those aged 12-17 years old as compared to the same period in 2019. During the month of June 2020, 25% of persons aged 18 to 24 in the US reported suicidal ideation. While some of this may be related to the pandemic, we suspect that it is largely a function of our response to the pandemic.
While “the most common experiences reported of online issues involved bullying or generally being made to feel uncomfortable, one in three participants reported having had an online sexual interaction,” a report said. Thorn report: Why you kids shouldn’t be on TikTik or Instagram | 7NEWS.com.au
Most participants reported receiving a “sext”, while 18 per cent had received a nude photo or video and 18 per cent had been asked to send a nude photo or video.
Children as young as five years old know how to use phones and tablets. It is their language. Jackie, a friend of mine who is a mother of a toddler and a social media influencer on Tiktok says “You wouldn’t believe what children are accessing online nowadays.”
The gods above us use their power to suppress knowledge of all that might expose them as the Machiavellian fraudsters that they are, yet no one is protecting our children from dangerous information.
What is a parent to do?
Move to the country. Start a commune. Start neighborhood learning centers with like-minded parents. I have heard many parents say, “If they try to force me to vaccinate my children, I will take them out.”
All well and good. But there are many who cannot afford to do this. Many will have no choice but to give in to the State. If they don’t, just as happened to parents who resisted putting their children on Ritalin, they will be accused of abuse and perhaps even have their children taken from them.
Just as happened to Patricia Weathers, who in 2020 took her 9-year-old son off an antidepressant and medication similar to Ritalin, because he was constantly gnawing at his shirt collar and had began to hear “voices.”
As a result, her son’s elementary school accused her of medical neglect and called child-abuse investigators. Years of battling the school in the courts took its toll until she finally won in court. But most people don’t have the knowledge or the resources to sustain such a battle.
School officials can force a parent to seek out a professional, such as a psychiatrist. And can they expel a child who doesn’t take medication or intimidate parents by threatening to phone social services or child-abuse investigators? Weathers says that’s what happened to her, and there are reports of other similar cases around the country.
All of this intimidation and training to comply was a precursor to what is happening now. With psychiatric drugs, the only person the State can claim you are putting at risk is your own child. With vaccines, they can claim you are putting the entire country at risk. Millions of lives are on your hands and the hands of other deplorables like you.
My daughter and her husband spent the past year in Slovenia where their two boys, ages three and two, have gone to daycare free of masks. In July, they are moving back to Los Angeles. They are against masks and the vaccine, both for themselves and their children.
They could not find a single daycare in their area that didn’t require children to wear masks.
And those daycares all reassured her — as if it would make her feel better — that once the vaccine was available and the tiny tots had taken it, they would be allowed to go mask free. At last, my daughter found one daycare that didn’t require masks. It was a private Christian school. So, that is where they will put their boys.
We already see signs of Christians schools being demonized.
A March article in Ms Magazine declared How Christian Schools and Homeschooling Teach Supremacist Conspiracies.
Statistically, homeschoolers do much better with learning and their futures than public school children. Yet academics such as Prof. Elizabeth Bartholet, are leading the charge against those who actively resist public schools and she believes that the generation currently being homeschooled is an eventual, if not active, breeding ground for racism, sexism, and isolationism.
“Many homeschool precisely because they want to isolate their children from ideas and values central to public education and to our democracy. Many promote racial segregation and female subservience. Many question science. Many are determined to keep their children from exposure to views that might enable autonomous choice about their future lives,” she claims.
My daughter certainly is not a white supremacist. She is not a Trump supporter. She has no interest in politics. She just wants to follow what she believes is best for her children.
Yet, if things keep going on as they are now, it is quite possible that anyone who doesn’t adhere to the “ideas and values central to public education and to our democracy,” meaning what is acceptable to the totalitarian state, will automatically be considered enemies of the state and as such, in need to reeducation, imprisonment, or perhaps even worse.
Some might accuse me of alarmism. Nothing would make me happier than to be proved an alarmist. However, unless people stand up and speak out, this is surely what we are facing. And I think those who are reading this who don’t want their children submitted to this experimentation and abuse know in their hearts this might well be what they are facing.
I want to end with a little story. I was raised by a Mennonite mother. There was much I rebelled against as a child, teenager. Despite my doubts and rebellions, I always knew I had a history to be proud of; a foundation of strong, courageous people who stood up for what they believed, even in the face of death. Before her passing my mother left each of her children a booklet with the history of our people.
She called the booklet A Far Journey. It tells the story of the Anabaptists who split from the Catholic Church and followed the teachings of a Dutch preacher named Menno Simmons, born in 1496.
This was a time of great upheaval. The Protestants were fighting for the right to free information for all. No longer should the gateway to God be blocked by priests and popes. No longer should the common man be kept from reading and interpreting the Sacred Scriptures for himself. This free information for all, brought about by the invention of the printing press, threatened the hold the powerful had on the ignorant souls beneath them.
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ca.1875, Paris, France — France: Paris Besieged By The Normans, A. D. 835. Guizot’s History of France. — Image by
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Bloody battles ensued. The cause became politicized, of course, and used by both sides to gain more power. But as always, there were the common people who stood up for their rights. The Martyrs Mirror, a collection of records, letters and court accounts tells the stories of many of those who remained faithful and paid the price of their lives.
There is one letter in the collection from Janneken Muntsdorg, written from prison to her one-month-old daughter, also named Janneken. The mother bore her child in prison and the girl was taken from her. Knowing she would never see her daughter again, she wrote a letter for her to read one day. Part of it goes thus:
The true love of God and wisdom of the Father strengthen you in virtue, my dearest child; …and strengthen and confirm your understanding in His truth […] for if we were to continue in the world, we would have had no trouble. For when we were one with the world and practiced idolatry, and loved all manner of unrighteousness, we could live at peace with the world; but when we desired to fear God and to shun such improper ways…then they did not leave us in peace; then our blood was sought; then we had to be a prey to everyone, and become a spectacle to all the world. They seek here to murder and burn us; we are placed at posts and stakes, and our flesh is given as food to the worms.”
Words too drastic? I think not.
I recite these words if only to wake people up from their sleep! If only to remind us that many have gone before who suffered and died for the freedoms we enjoy. The freedoms to read and write, to worship and pray and speak as we choose. Not just for Christians, but for everyone. Everyone. The freedoms to agree and disagree. Even to believe outrageous “conspiracy” theories.
The internet has created a crisis even greater than the invention of the printing press. In those days, the information of the texts was limited to biblical knowledge. As time went on, that information grew. Now, a seemingly infinite wealth of information is at our fingertips. We are being told that information is dangerous. That we need to put it into the hands of the powerful once again. We must trust them as the doorkeepers between our minds and the mysteries of the universe.
Just as the reformers stood up for their rights to interpret texts on their own, so we must stand up for our rights to do the same.
Perhaps the day will come when the individual will submit to the will of the State and we will be more machine than we are flesh and blood. I know men like Elon Musk dream of this. He says we need these changes if we want to explore the universe, to travel to other planets. We need to evolve. I would love nothing more than to explore other planets. Perhaps losing our humanity little by little is the price we must pay for that “advancement.” If science fiction is any indication—and I tend to believe science fiction sometimes more than actual science—this is probably inevitable.
But that day is not today. For now, we must fight for the right to hold onto our freedoms. Oh, we can have intellectual discussions about how we aren’t really “free” and all of that, but I do know the difference between freedom and bondage.
I walked through Dachau as a child. I stood at the Berlin Wall and crossed the barrier from the land of the free into the land of the oppressed. From one step to the next, I passed from light into darkness. I was fortunate. I was allowed to pass back again, horribly aware of all the yearning souls I was leaving behind.
Don’t let the lies lull you to sleep. Don’t let cynicism overcome you.
I have faith that there will always be at least one Scrubb and one Jill in every school. Those who refuse to fit in. Those who still see the mystery beyond the wall.
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Those who find the way out of darkness and into light.
I started with Salmon Rushdie and I will end with him. I saw him once at a party at a club, back in the 90s. He was a very ugly man, but he was with a very beautiful woman. I wondered about him. He looked so insignificant, yet what power his words had! So much power that they were dangerous to the regime in Iran and a price was put on his head. Yet there he sat, enjoying his life.
In those heretical Satanic Verses, he wrote:
What kind of idea are you? Are you the kind that compromises, does deals, accommodates itself to society, aims to find a niche, to survive; or are you the cussed, bloody-minded, ramrod-backed type of damn-fool notion that would rather break than sway with the breeze? – The kind that will almost certainly, ninety-nine times out of hundred, be smashed to bits; but, the hundredth time, will change the world.”
We may be smashed to bits. Still, let’s be the ones who change the world.
Cover image The Plague is by an incredible artist and writer, Eugen Dashine, you can check out his work @ Deviant Art MeethOs
Karen Hunt [aka KH Mesek] is an author and illustrator of 19 children’s books, the YA series Night Angels Chronicles and the science fiction novel, LUMINARIA: Tales of Earth & Oran, Love & Revenge, to be published in August. She recently returned from living in Luxor, Egypt where she started the first boxing club for girls. Having lived and traveled extensively behind the Iron Curtain, she is devoting her time to writing essays related to the loss of freedom in the West. You can read more of her work, or sign up to her newsletter, here. or follow her on twitter.
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Goodbye Google – The Burning Platform
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Goodbye Google
Via Mercola
Video Link
Story at-a-glance
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Goodbye Google
Via Mercola
Video Link
Story at-a-glance
- In early April 2020, Mercola.com purposely blocked Google from indexing our articles and breaking news blog posts
- I encourage you to search every site’s privacy policy page to see if they use Google Analytics or Google Ad programs, and if they do, encourage them to stop
- Nearly every non-major website is using Google’s “free” analytics program, as well as their advertising platforms. Alas, those services are not actually free. Ultimately, YOU pay for them with your personal data, as that is the product Google sells. Collectively, all of these sites are stealing an enormous amount of your private information
- Google’s powers pose several threats to society. First of all, it’s a surveillance agency with significant yet hidden surveillance powers. It’s also a censoring agency with the ability to restrict or block access to websites across the internet, thus deciding what people can and cannot see
- Google also has the power to manipulate public opinion through search rankings and other means, and the shifts in thinking produced are both rapid and enormous
In early April 2020, Mercola.com became one of the first websites to purposely block Google from indexing our articles and breaking news blog posts. Most of you are well aware that I’ve had concerns about the surveillance capitalists, spearheaded by Google, for a number of years.
September 2017, I discussed Google’s partnership with the National Alliance on Mental Illness, and how their depression assessment quiz was in fact a drug promotion scam sponsored by the drug manufacturer Eli Lilly. No matter how you answered the questions, you were a candidate for antidepressants.
Video Link
Since then, Google and other tech companies have only gotten deeper and wider access to people’s personal medical information, and Google’s selling of this data to third parties can have real-world consequences. Higher insurance premiums or denial of employment are but two obvious examples.
Google Blocked From Interacting With Mercola.com
Most of you know that in the summer of 2019, Google removed us from coming up in any keyword search unless our name was also typed into the query. While we still received substantial traffic from people who looked very hard to find Mercola articles through Google, we finally decided to block Google from crawling or indexing any of my articles or breaking news blogs. We also stopped using the Google Analytics program in 2018.
So, everything related to Google has been removed from this site, and I hope other sites will follow suit. I encourage you to search every site’s privacy policy page to see if they use Google Analytics or Google Ad programs, and if they do, encourage them to stop.
We can be successful without the surveillance monopolies, and businesses and individuals need to unite to do everything we can to stop their dangerous privacy theft and data mining.
How You Pay for Companies’ Use of ‘Free’ Analytics
A majority of websites are using Google’s “free” analytics program, as well as their advertising platforms. Alas, those services are not actually free. Ultimately, YOU pay for them with your personal data, as that is the product Google turns around and sells to third parties. Collectively, all of these sites are stealing an enormous amount of your private information.
Google and its data-siphoning tentacles reach deep into your everyday life, collecting data on every move you make and conversation you have, whether online or in the real world.
Even if you disable location tracking on your phone, Google has ways to determine your whereabouts by tracking the addresses of nearby cellular towers that your phone connects to instead. This is one of the reasons I strongly encourage you to ditch all Android phones and use an iPhone that has better privacy policies.
I discussed this in my 2018 article, “Google — One of the Largest Monopolies in the World.” That article also includes a list of examples of the type of data collected by Google, whether you’re aware of it or not.
Our ‘Cognitive Liberties’ Are at Stake
As detailed in “Will Google’s Social Credit System Determine Your Future?” there are now proposals suggesting all this data, in combination with artificial intelligence-enabled analytics systems could be used for “predictive policing” as illustrated in the 2002 movie “Minority Report,” where suspected perpetrators are arrested before a crime is actually committed.
In the 2018 TED Talk above,1 legal scholar and bioethicist Nita Farahany discusses the potential ramifications of mind-reading technology, warning that such technology could easily lead to “a society where people are arrested for merely thinking about committing a crime.”
Mind you, Google claimed to have the ability to read your thoughts an entire decade ago. In 2010, Google CEO Eric Schmidt boasted, “We know where you are. We know where you’ve been. We can more or less know what you’re thinking about.”2
Fast-forward 10 years, and Google’s mind-reading capabilities have exponentially grown and been perfected to the point that their AI can predict the exact moment when a teenager is feeling insecure, lonely or vulnerable, so that an advertisement for an image-boosting product can be placed in front of them on the screen in that moment.
This and many other terrifying capabilities are detailed in the book, “The Age of Surveillance Capitalism,” written by social psychologist and Harvard professor Shoshana Zuboff. The video below features an interview I did with her about this topic.
In her TED Talk, Farahany also discusses the dangers of a world in which “private interests sell our brain data.” She believes we, as a global community, need laws protecting our rights to cognitive liberty; laws that protect our freedom of thought and self-determination.
Say Goodbye to Google
Over the years, I’ve grown exceedingly concerned about Google’s exponential data mining efforts and infiltration into every conceivable area of our everyday lives, from health care and fitness to education and finance.
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The influence of Google is so vast yet so hidden, most people simply have no idea just how controlled they actually are. Most of us would vehemently deny that something as simple as Google search results can manipulate us into thinking a certain way about a topic, yet research clearly shows that this kind of subliminal influence is profoundly powerful.
Download Interview Transcript | Video Link
Robert Epstein, Ph.D., who has spent the last decade of his professional career exposing Google’s manipulative and deceptive practices as a senior research psychologist for the American Institute of Behavioral Research and Technology, has also demonstrated how easily Google can shift our political and societal landscape.
Without Google, the technocrats’ dream of a One World Government would likely never happen, as it relies on social engineering and artificial intelligence. Google is a frontrunner and expert in both, and has the ability to control entire populations. As noted by Epstein in the interview above, Google poses three unique threats to society:
• They’re a surveillance agency with significant yet hidden surveillance powers — Google Search, Google Wallet, Google Docs, Gmail, Google Drive, YouTube — all are surveillance platforms and from Google’s perspective, the value of these platforms are their ability to glean very precise data about you as an individual. Most of these platforms offer free services for the simple reason that YOU are the product being sold to third parties.
• They’re a censoring agency with the ability to restrict or block access to websites across the internet, thus deciding what people can and cannot see. While Section 230 of the 1996 Communications Decency Act makes free speech possible for everyone, it also allows Google and other online platforms to filter out and censor whatever they want.
The most crushing problem with this kind of internet censorship is that you don’t know what you don’t know. If a certain type of information is removed from search, and you don’t know it should exist somewhere, you’ll never go looking for it. And, when searching for information online, how would you know that certain websites or pages have been removed from the search results in the first place? The answer is, you don’t.
For example, Google has been investing in DNA repositories for quite a long time, and are adding DNA information to our profiles. According to Epstein, Google has taken over the national DNA repository, but articles about that — which he has cited in his own writings — have all vanished.
• They have the power to manipulate public opinion through search rankings and other means, and the shifts in thinking produced are both rapid and enormous. For example, Epstein has demonstrated that Google has the ability to shift voting preferences among undecided voters by a whopping 48% to 63%, and the power to determine 25% of global elections. What’s more, this manipulation is entirely undetectable and untraceable.
The Many Reasons to Ditch Google
As a user, there are many reasons to de-Google your life, including the following:
Privacy concerns — Google’s services, including search, email, and maps, collect vast amounts of personal data, which can include browsing history, location data, and more. This collection is integral to their business model, which focuses on targeted advertising. Other privacy concerns include the following:
• Tracking of your whereabouts 24/7 — In 2022, four attorneys general sued Google for its deceptive practices in collecting location data, as they continue to track location data even after users disable location tracking. By tracking your Google calendar entries, combined with your location data, Google also knows what events you’ve attended, when, and for how long.
• Your built-in webcam on your phone, tablet, laptop or computer can also be accessed by various apps.
• A lifetime of photographic evidence — Twenty years ago, photos were a private matter, reminisced over in photo albums and displayed around the home. Today, people’s lives are on public display online, and Google captures it all.
When combined with facial recognition software and other technological identification applications, including metadata detailing the time and place of each snap, your photos are a treasure trove of private information.
• A lifetime of communications — Google also has every single Gmail email you’ve ever sent, received and deleted.
• Censoring your email — Google can also censor your email, and we have evidence that this is happening. While about 50% of our subscribers are using Gmail accounts, the delivery rate for Gmail accounts is HALF of all the email providers like Proton Mail — far lower than any other email service.
So, if you are using Gmail to receive our newsletter please change immediately. If you’re using Gmail, understand that they’re censoring your inbox, and you might not even realize it.
• Deleted files and information — You probably delete files and information every now and then for the sake of safety, right? You might decide to delete that list of passwords from your phone, for example, in case you lose it or it gets hacked. Well, Google still has all of that information.
Market dominance and monopolistic behavior — Google’s dominant position in search, video hosting (via YouTube), and mobile operating systems (via Android) stifles competition, potentially leading to less innovation and choice for consumers.
Data security — Although Google claims to have strong security measures, no service is immune to data breaches or security flaws. Considering the vast amount of personal data collected by Google, a data breach could be potentially devastating.
Echo chamber and filter bubble effects — Google’s personalized search and news results can create a “filter bubble,” where users are more likely to see information that aligns with their past behavior, potentially limiting exposure to differing viewpoints and leading to an echo chamber effect.
Dependence and data lock-in — Relying heavily on Google’s ecosystem can lead to a form of lock-in, where moving to other services becomes difficult due to the vast amounts of data and integration within Google’s services. To avoid this, diversify your service providers.
The coming social credit system — The ability to surveil and track every conceivable metric, censor and block access to information, and the ability to manipulate opinions also makes Google an invaluable resource for the planned social credit system, and the more information they have on you, the easier they can manipulate you.
Here’s How You Can Say Goodbye to Google Today
If you are at all concerned about Google’s data theft practices, then it’s time you stop using Google services. Sure, Google has convenience covered, but it’s not enough to overshadow its many evils.
If you’re ready to protect your privacy and break free from the manipulation of internet monopolies, here are some basic steps you can take. Also, be sure to share these tips with your family and friends.
Swap out your browser — Uninstall Google Chrome and use Brave or Opera instead. Everything you do on Chrome is surveilled, including keystrokes and every webpage you’ve ever visited. Brave is a great alternative that takes privacy seriously.
Switch your search engine — Stop using Google search engines or any extension of Google, such as Bing or Yahoo, both of which draw search results from Google. Instead, use a default search engine that offers privacy, such as Presearch, Startpage, DuckDuckGo, Qwant and many others.
Use a secure email — Close your Gmail account and switch to a secure email service like ProtonMail. If you have children, don’t transfer their student Google account into a personal account once they’re out of school.
Switch to a secure document sharing service — Ditch Google Docs and use another alternative such as Zoho Office, Etherpad, CryptPad, OnlyOffice or Nuclino, all of which are recommended by NordVPN.3
Delete all Google apps from your phone and purge Google hardware. Better yet, get a de-Googled phone. Several companies now offer them, including Above Phone.
Avoid websites that use Google Analytics — To do that, you’ll need to check the website’s privacy policy and search for “Google.” Websites are required to disclose if they use a third-party surveillance tool. If they use Google Analytics, ask them to switch!
Use a secure messaging system — To keep your private communications private, use a messaging tool that provides end-to-end encryption, such as Signal.
Use a virtual private network (VPN) such as NordVPN or Strong VPN — This is a must if you seek to preserve your online privacy.
Don’t use Google Home devices in your house or apartment — These devices record everything that occurs in your home, both speech and sounds such as brushing your teeth and boiling water, even when they appear to be inactive, and send that information back to Google. The same goes for Google’s home thermostat Nest and Amazon’s Alexa.
Don’t use an Android cellphone, as it’s owned by Google.
Ditch Siri, which draws all its answers from Google.
Don’t use Fitbit, as it was recently purchased by Google and will provide them with all your physiological information and activity levels, in addition to everything else that Google already has on you.
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- Post #12,538
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- Mar 20, 2024 7:30am Mar 20, 2024 7:30am
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,787 Posts
- Post #12,539
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- Edited 8:36am Mar 20, 2024 7:34am | Edited 8:36am
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,787 Posts
Hedge funds shake up the euro zone's $10 trillion government bond market | Reuters
Hedge funds shake up the euro zone's $10 trillion government bond market
By Yoruk Bahceli, Nell Mackenzie, Harry Robertson and Dhara Ranasinghe
March 19, 202410:34 AM EDT Updated 21 hours ago
https://cloudfront-us-east-2.images....4DFFWK5HXU.jpg
A view of the European Central Bank (ECB) headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany March 16, 2023. REUTERS/Heiko Becker/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens
- Hedge funds dominate eurozone government bond trading, data show
- Account for two thirds of trading in Italy's bonds - data
- Funds favor short-term strategies, debt auctions, sources say
- Hedge funds can pull out at any time posing a stability concern
LONDON, March 19 (Reuters) - Hedge funds are piling into the euro zone's $10 trillion government bond market, scenting opportunities as funding needs surge and the European Central Bank retreats.
The funds are buying a large share of government debt sales, providing a source of much-needed capital, traders and officials say. Yet the lightly-regulated investors often load their bets with bank debt, tying their fortunes to lenders, at a time when there is growing regulatory concern globally about their market impact.
Interviews with more than a dozen sources, including senior traders and treasury officials, as well as market data compiled exclusively for Reuters by electronic platform Tradeweb, show that hedge funds have become increasingly entrenched in the bloc's debt market.
Hedge funds accounted for a record 55% of European government bond trading volume on Tradeweb last year, up from 36% in 2020, displacing other financial firms to become the dominant players for the first time.
And their reach was largest in some of Europe's most indebted nations: hedge funds comprised two-thirds of trading volumes of Italian debt on Tradeweb, the data compiled for Reuters showed.
Tradeweb is one of the top three trading platforms for European government bonds, alongside Bloomberg and MTS, according to Coalition Greenwich, a financial services research company. The data includes euro zone countries and other European markets, including Britain.
Analysts at Barclays estimated in January the euro zone debt market needs to absorb a record 675 billion euros ($735 billion) of additional bonds this year as the ECB winds down its bond holdings. That comes as the pandemic and war in Ukraine have propelled government borrowing. Meanwhile, banks find their balance sheets constrained by rules introduced after the financial crisis of 2008.
Cue the hedge funds, lured by interest rates that have returned to positive territory after almost a decade.
Rapid growth in electronic trading in Europe, particularly since the pandemic broke out in 2020, has also lowered the costs of buying and selling securities, adding to the market's allure. Electronic trading in the region has lagged the United States.
"These markets are very exciting and constructive to trade in," Kenneth Tropin, founder of 30-year-old Graham Capital Management, which manages $18 billion in assets including government bonds, told Reuters. Graham is one of the longer-standing trend-following hedge funds.
Millennium and Citadel - two so-called multi-strategy funds that trade many different assets across a variety of strategies - and Haidar Capital together manage more than $120 billion and are among the most active hedge funds in the euro zone bond market, four of the traders and treasury officials said.
The three funds declined to comment for this story.
While hedge funds contribute to market liquidity, their increased presence strengthens the case for tightening their regulatory oversight, said Andreas Dombret, a former German central bank board member.
Banks typically have formal commitments as so-called 'primary dealers' to buy government bonds and to trade them actively in good times and bad, but hedge funds have no such obligations.
"They're the first to leave the party if things get rough," said Dombret, who now works as an adviser to banks including at consultancy Oliver Wyman.
Compared to the banking sector, the $3.5 trillion hedge fund industry is lightly regulated. It is comprised of private investment vehicles that do not report their profits publicly and do not disclose, sometimes even to their own investors, how they make money.
They speculate on asset prices rising as well as falling to make money for their clients, which include pension funds, sovereign wealth funds and rich individuals.
A spokesperson for ESMA, the European Union securities watchdog, declined to comment on growing hedge fund activity in the bloc. ESMA chair Verena Ross told Reuters on the sidelines of a conference that the regulator looks carefully at "particular funds" that build up leverage.
A spokesperson for the ECB told Reuters the central bank supports global efforts to boost regulations addressing investment funds and hedge funds.
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Reuters Graphics
RISING VOLATILITY
Hedge funds' footprint is growing as price swings become the new norm, as their flexibility can permit them to take advantage of volatile markets.
Volatility in benchmark German bonds surged to a record in 2022, when the bloc's inflation peaked at over 10%, and remains higher than before the inflation surge. German yields rose 44 basis points in the third quarter of 2023, then fell 80 bps the next, in one of the two biggest quarterly moves since 2011.
The presence of hedge fund trading may also contribute to price swings, two of the traders said.
"On both sides, there were some extreme moves, and that can happen if everyone is trying to chase the same trade and positioned the same way, and therefore have to step out," said Zoeb Sachee, head of euro linear rates trading at Citi, a primary dealer for the bloc's governments.
At the height of the pandemic in March 2020, investors including hedge funds sold bonds while dealers took more on their books, according to research, opens new tab from the Financial Stability Board (FSB), which groups officials, regulators and central bankers from the G20 economies.
The scale of the selloff threatened economic and financial stability, prompting the ECB to stabilize markets with massive stimulus. Now the central bank is stepping back, removing the stabilizers that help limit financial stress.
Francesco Papadia, who led market operations at the ECB during the euro zone debt crisis of the early 2010s, said hedge funds are currently playing a constructive role given benign markets but this shouldn't be taken for granted.
"Should prospects worsen, hedge funds could lead the move towards more difficult conditions for both issuers and investors," said Papadia, a senior fellow at Brussels-based think tank Bruegel, adding hedge funds could emerge as 'bond vigilantes'.
That's a term attributed to investors who penalize governments they perceive as fiscally reckless, demanding higher returns for lending.
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Reuters Graphics
FILLING A VOID
Bond issuance is the main way governments finance themselves on financial markets. That happens mostly at auctions, where the banks designated as primary dealers buy the bonds, then sell them to other investors.
Maric Post, Belgium's debt management chief, acknowledges the risk of higher volatility if hedge funds unwind big trades or step away from the market.
But for now, he says, he's not worried, adding that hedge fund demand for Belgian bonds has worked "quite well" to smoothen out debt sales, he told Reuters in an interview this month.
Three traders estimated that hedge funds have been buying between 20% to more than 50% of auctions in some instances. Another trader, who requested anonymity, said hedge funds buy around 35% at auctions on average, up from roughly 20% five years ago.
How much hedge funds buy also depends on how much the primary dealer wants to pass onto them. The post-2008 regulations have constrained primary dealers' balance sheets, so they can no longer hold onto large amounts of bonds for long periods of time - for example, weeks after an auction.
Bruno Benchimol, head of euro zone government bond trading at Credit Agricole, said hedge funds' involvement smoothens debt sales by extending the time horizon in which the new bonds must be bought by longer-term investors like pension funds and insurers.
One common strategy used by funds playing price swings tries to take advantage of a regular pattern where bond prices tend to fall ahead of auctions as markets prepare to digest the supply, then typically recover once the sale is complete.
Hedge funds playing that strategy tend to offload the government's bonds before the auction, betting on prices falling, including by going short, three of the traders said.
Once the bonds cheapen, hedge funds buy the new debt at auction, then sell it on over the next few days or weeks, locking in profits.
Hedge funds also set up relative value trades capturing how outstanding bonds - from different maturities or issuers - move against each other around debt sales, or use the auctions to buy bonds for broader relative value or macro strategies, traders said.
The International Capital Markets Association (ICMA), an industry body representing financial firms, flagged relative value strategies as a significant source of trading, opens new tab in a report this month. The study also warns about the potential risks when hedge funds suddenly pull out of markets.
"There isn't a one or two type strategy that's repeated over and over. There's a large, diverse set of activities that are being deployed," said Kal El-Wahab, head of EMEA linear rates trading at BofA, whose clients include hedge funds.
The variety of their strategies makes hedge funds' impact on bond market pricing harder to assess, especially at a time when demand for the asset class is broadly strong.
The closely-watched risk premium Italy typically pays over Germany , a bellwether of market stress, just hit its lowest in over two years.
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Reuters Graphics
RECORD TRADING VOLUMES
Helped by hedge fund interest, trading volumes in European government bonds have surged to a record, which is good news for investment banks making money from the boom.
It also helps ease pressure from costly primary dealerships that have become less profitable over the years due to tighter regulations on banks' use of capital.
Banks have been dropping out of dealerships. European governments now have 17 dealers working for them on average, down from 20 in 2015, trade body AFME said.
But the expansion of hedge funds has also brought challenges.
Since 2021, hedge funds have poached about one third of banks' euro rates traders, according to two recruiters, who asked not to be identified. Hedge funds are subject to fewer rules, including on compensation.
What's more, hedge funds mostly borrow from Wall Street firms to fund their bets, meaning those banks' exposure is a potential financial stability risk, the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) warned earlier this month in a report, opens new tab.
Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, UBS, Barclays and BNP Paribas are the biggest, according to the BIS.
Ultimately, record bond sales mean governments have few alternatives. Longer-term investors like pension funds would demand higher returns to show up at regular auctions, a trader and a treasury official said, which would push borrowing costs higher.
Those investors "tend to participate more when they have tangible needs at that particular point in time, whereas hedge funds will participate to the extent there's an opportunity," JPMorgan's co-head of euro linear rates trading Julian Baker said.
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Reporting by Yoruk Bahceli, Nell Mackenzie, Harry Robertson and Dhara Ranasinghe, additional reporting by Anton Bridge in Tokyo; editing by Elisa Martinuzzi and Daniel Flynn
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
- Post #12,540
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- Edited 9:01am Mar 20, 2024 7:48am | Edited 9:01am
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,787 Posts
https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/ma...ils=true&pid=2
Imagine a scenario whereby we’d be shutting down the global economy, having much of the global population worried about their health and their lives, having people essentially go into isolation, all while governments were seizing more power than ever via mandates, monitoring, censorship and more powerful dubious “NARRATRIVES”?
There’s no need to “imagine”, that’s exactly what we’ve witnessed in the last four years since the pandemic.
Perhaps the most amazing part of the post-pandemic period, despite all the potential pitfalls the above description conveys, is that we’ve managed to create a speculative asset bubble that defies historical economic precedents in so many ways. “HOW BIZARRE”!
Welcome to “PART TWO” of my “HOW BIZZARE” Investment Letter observations. Much of “PART ONE” brought you info on what I view as distortions and divergences evident in asset markets. This time around, the focus will be more on evident distortions and divergences from historical norms in economics and other trends. If you haven’t read “PART ONE”, here’s a link to facilitate you getting up to speed:
https://cdn.ameriprisecontent.com/cd...6762422993.pdf
Our musical soundtrack is provided by New Zealand-based “one-hit wonder” band OMC, and their 1995 “HOW BIZARRE”.
STOCK MARKET DISTORTION AND DIVERGENCE PARTING THOUGHTS
I know I need to be moving on to an economic discussion, but I can’t help but leave you with some final stock market “HOW BIZARRE” observations.
According to Siblis Research, the total U.S. stock market capitalization at the end of 2023 was $50.8 trillion, with $42.1 trillion coming from the S&P 500; now add a couple of percent to account for 2024’s appreciation. Interestingly, this is down from the end of 2021 figures of $52.3 trillion and $42.3 accordingly. Again, focusing on “THE MAGNIFICENT SEVEN”:
the Magnificent 7 went from a combined market cap of $7.9 Trillion in September 2022 to now being worth $13.3 Trillion as of the end of February 2024.1
That’s an astonishing $5.4 trillion increase in just 7 stocks in 18 months in an overall stock market environment that has barely budged!
I’d even argue that the MAG 7 has recently even become only the MAG 4 or maybe even the MAG 2. It feels like everyone from retail investors to institutional investors to foreign investors is chasing the same handful of stocks. History strongly suggests this is a sign of an unhealthy market and the condition does not end well.
To make matters even more alarming, I suspect that this narrow chase and distortion that has pushed the major two U.S. indices (S&P500 and NASDAQ 100) up from their 2022 lows, is almost solely responsible for making investors believe that the economy is better than it really is and is obscuring broader economic and fundamental weakness.
What I consider to be recent investor FOMO (Fear of Missing Out), spurred on by an AI (artificial intelligence) driven mania reeks of excessive speculation. Tack on some recent spikes in many highly shorted fundamentally handicapped stocks targeted for “short squeezes”2 and you get a market environment reminiscent of the Q1 2021 speculative bubble burst highlighted by the dramatic falls in “meme stocks” like AMC and GameStop. Combine this with momentum-chasing “algo trading” and the passive index chase, and it’s not hard for many emotionally driven inexperienced investors and/or computer-driven professional investors to conclude that “fundamentals don’t matter” much anymore and “this time is different” in the stock market. Anyone that’s been investing during and prior to the GFC (Great Financial Crisis) and the Tech Bubble and even the 1987 stock market crash knows how dangerous an assumption that ultimately becomes.
No ones knows exactly when and from what point the inevitable bear market correction begins, but rest assured, I believe it will be a painful experience. My best advice is to the resist the chase, stay patient and keep your emotions in check no matter how frustrating it may feel on certain days.
DEBT DOESN’T MATTER EITHER?
The post-pandemic historic FED/government intervention and ongoing fiscal spending deluge also seems to have reinforced the notion among many, that “debt doesn’t matter” to the economy and asset markets, just as much as “fundamentals don’t matter” to equity markets. In my view, those subscribing to Modern Monetary Theory are having their “moment in the sun”, solely based on the fact that the economy and asset markets haven’t fallen apart yet; notice and take to heart the boldening of the word “yet”.
The rationalization of excessive fiscal spending begs the asking of a couple of questions. If the excessive debt creation is so “good”, why not do even more? Are we assuming that the FED and other global central bankers miraculously know the exact “right” amount of intervention and debt creation? If the debt creation is what is driving up asset prices rather than economic fundamentals, at what point do those elevated prices, increasingly acting as collateral for further debt creation, succumb to the laws of financial nature like overvaluation and overleverage? Isn’t it a bit arrogant to assume that it took humans this long to figure out how beneficial and non-threatening debt is to the economy?
My answers to those questions point to a potentially very challenging financial period ahead of us. It feels like one of the most daunting post-pandemic distortions is a belief in the “this time is different” school of thought. For those avoiding or ignoring the answers, or choosing historically opposed answers to the above questions, while enjoying the current environment way too much, I wish you luck. I’ll stick to my defensive and cautious views.
THE EXPANDING WEALTH AND INCOME INEQUALITY DIVIDE MEETS INFLATION
Two post-pandemic economic forces seem to be crossing paths in a not so cheerful way.
The historic post-pandemic interventions turbo-charged the widening wealth and income inequality gap that was already rapidly widening prior to the pandemic. This massive divergence is making it very difficult to assess any economic statistic, as the conditions of the lower 90% of consumers and top 10% of consumers have never been more different.
This how some consumers can pay tens of thousands of dollars for tickets to a Taylor Swift concert or for the Super Bowl (it’s a bit ironic that both events seemed to center around her), while growing numbers of people are overburdened in debt and are having problems paying bills.
One of the biggest curveballs in the post-pandemic period was the onset of inflation not seen in four decades. No matter if inflation rises much this year, the cumulative already built-in price rises are baked in the cake for those that are struggling.
One of the most representative messages of the year, revealing just how incredibly wide the wealth and income inequality divide has become, and how much strain the post-pandemic inflation is causing, comes from the McDonald’s CEO as relayed in this February MSN article3:
“According to Chris Kempczinski, McDonald's CEO, the company has seen a drop in low-income customers after it raised prices due to inflation. McDonald's estimates menu prices increased by about 10% in 2023 to keep up with rising costs.”
Imagine that; “low-income customers” are having difficulties in even affording McDonalds; this can not be a good economic sign. The comment also likely doesn’t bode well for future corporate profit margins in many industries.
Under the heading of “HOW BIZARRE” things have become, these opening lines from a 3/2/24 CNN article titled, “Americans’ Cost of Living Remains a Massive Headache, Even as Recession Fears Fade”4, are emblematic of our predicament and the huge economic dichotomy:
“The long-rumored recession has been postponed – or perhaps canceled altogether.
The soft-landing vibes are real. Inflation is cooling. The economy is growing at a shockingly strong pace. And unemployment hasn’t been this low for this long since the late 1960s.
And yet, hidden behind these bloomy-economic indicators, a frustrating reality persists: Life is far too expensive for far too many.”
Within a couple of sentences, you get a handle on terms like “divergence” and “distortion” that I’ve been using to describe the post-pandemic period. On a broader scale, my overarching theme of “THE GRAND ILLUSION” comes to mind.
ECONOMIC STATS COULD BE DECEIVING
Economic stats in normal cycles can definitely be deceiving, but in this distorted post-pandemic period, that statement likely rings true more than ever.
The point in the above CNN excerpt that expresses the “soft landing” consensus view is also interesting, as when that view becomes consensus after initial recession fears, just like we’ve seen in the last two years, the recession then shows up to surprise the consensus. Here’s a chart from Game of Trades, that shows you just how “consensus” the “soft landing” view currently is:
https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/ma...ils=true&pid=3
One of the reasons that may help explain why that lack of recessionary concern occurs is that it is not uncommon for a last GDP surge to occur just as the economy heads into recession. This chart from Francois Trahan of The Macro Institute illustrates that point well, look at the GDP surge right before the gray recessionary period:
https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/ma...ils=true&pid=4
Speaking of GDP and divergences, another historic divergence is occurring between GDP and the less talked about GDI. Here are some definitions from Investopedia to help analyze the situation.
“Gross domestic product (GDP) is the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period. As a broad measure of overall domestic production, it functions as a comprehensive scorecard of a given country’s economic health.”
“Gross domestic income (GDI) is a measure of a nation's economic activity that is based on all of the money earned for all of the goods and services produced in the nation during a specific period.”
Historically, GDP and GDI track each other very well, but an unusually very wide divergence is occurring as this chart from Eric Basmajian of EPB Research indicates:
https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/ma...ils=true&pid=5
I believe a key phrase in the Investopedia GDI definition that helps explain the extent of the current divergence is “money earned”; more than ever the current economic circumstances are grossly dependent on debt creation, which is not “money earned”. Over-reliance on debt doesn’t have a good historical economic track record, so I’d venture to guess that divergence narrows, potentially very hard in the downward direction; that obviously does not bode well for the economy and could signal the “delayed” emergence of the eventual pending recession.
From that analysis, I believe it’s fair to say that GDP is a lagging economic indicator. Likewise, employment numbers are also notoriously laggards. Also, similarly to the economic growth numbers, there are some huge divergences taking place. I’ll let the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) explain the difference in their two surveys:
“The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has two monthly surveys that measure employment levels and trends: the Current Population Survey (CPS), also known as the household survey, and the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, also known as the payroll or establishment survey.
Both surveys are needed for a complete picture of the labor market.
The payroll survey (CES) is designed to measure employment, hours, and earnings in the nonfarm sector, with industry and geographic detail. The survey is best known for providing a highly reliable gauge of monthly change in nonfarm payroll employment. A representative sample of businesses in the U.S. provides the data for the payroll survey.
The household survey (CPS) is designed to measure the labor force status of the civilian noninstitutional population with demographic detail. The national unemployment rate is the best-known statistic produced from the household survey. The survey also provides a measure of employed people, one that includes agricultural workers and the self-employed. A representative sample of U.S. households provides the information for the household survey.”
I’ll use a chart, again courtesy of EPB Research, to help explain another current large divergence taking place, according to the charts, the establishment survey is showing job growth of 1.9% while slightly recent improving, while the household survey only shows job growth of 0.1% while continuing to decline:
https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/ma...ils=true&pid=6
Similar to GDP and GDI, the “establishment” and “household” employments surveys paint two completely different pictures. It should come as no surprise that investors and the trading algorithms prefer the better of the two statistics in both categories; additionally, the initially reported number is preferred rather the future adjustments which have been trending negative. I’ve written before about how frustrating it has become to track economic statistics because of the frequent revisions, seasonal adjustments and changes in methodology that feel like they’re more prevalent than ever. It almost feels to me like the numbers are being massaged a bit as the economic stats seem to consistently paint a better picture than consumer sentiment has in recent years. Perhaps that thought is a bit controversial, but it certainly does seem to echo my theme of “THE GRAND ILLUSION”, and there’s no doubt investors prefer good economic news over more dour reports.
POST-PANDEMIC POPULATION IMPACTS
The pandemic certainly has had both physical as well as mental impact on the citizenry; these stats from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in a 10/26/23 Newsweek article titled, “Why Are Death and Disability Rising Among Young Americans?”6, raises some underreported questions and concerns about the pandemic impact on the employment statistics and what they say about the overall economy:
“America's labor force is facing a crisis, and no one knows exactly why. According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of American adults considered unable to work grew by more than 3.5 million since January 2020, with 1.5 million added just in the first nine months of this year.
That's a concerning 12 percent hike. But among the labor force, in particular, the disability number grew an astonishing 33 percent since January 2020. Over the same time period, America has seen what one insurance insider calls an "open secret" of increased excess deaths—the number of people dying above what is expected. These shocking developments are surely contributing to ongoing labor shortages.”
A 2/19/24 Axios article titled, “Retirements spike again as stock market booms”7 brings up another reason for the workforce depletion:
“The U.S. has about 2.7 million more retirees than predicted, Bloomberg reports from a model designed by an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.”
The excess deaths and disabilities appear to be lingering health aspects of the pandemic, but the retirement surge likely has the post-pandemic rise in the S&P 500 and other assets as a root cause. Recent retirees giving up income and banking on continued future stock market growth could prove to be a troublesome decision if we are in the late stages of the post-GFC investment cycle as I suspect. It’s not hard to conclude from those statistics that the unemployment statistics may be painting a rosier picture of the health of the economy than would normally be the case. Have you noticed the rash of recent corporate layoff announcements? Stay tuned.5
CONCLUSION
Getting back to the retirement surge statistics, if you’re a regular reader of my Letters, you might be aware that my best advice for those contemplating retirement is to factor into those plans the timing of the next recession/bear market; the reason being that the sequence of distributions from retirement assets for those just retiring is absolutely critical to the long-term viability and effectiveness of those asset pools. Any initial sharp drop in value of the asset pool in the early years of distribution, will likely have an inordinately negative effect on the ability to continue the assumed percentage level for future disbursements. This is an incredibly important consideration.
In my view, we are overdue for a recession and bear market, preparedness for that eventual outcome has never been more critical; as I often write, this very well could be one of the most important financial junctures in our financial lives. Don’t let the post-pandemic “HOW BIZARRE” divergences and distortions from historical norms, and the current very emotional “FOMO” investors appear to be inflicted with, fool you into thinking that things are better than they really are, and this time is truly different.
I’ll leave you with some words of wisdom from famed economist John Kenneth Galbraith to dwell on:
"The problem of the modern economy is not a failure of a knowledge of economics; it's a failure of a knowledge of history."
1 https://markets.businessinsider.com/...rillion%20mark.
2 https://money.usnews.com/investing/a...could-take-off
3 https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/comp...rs/ar-BB1hVOdp
4 https://www.albanyherald.com/news/bu...bbe13ba55.html
5 https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyl...ies-axing-jobs
6 https://www.newsweek.com/why-are-dea...pinion-1837006 https://www.axios.com/2024/02/19/ame...market-returns
7 https://www.axios.com/2024/02/19/ame...market-returns
The views expressed here reflect the views of David Janny as of March 5th, 2024. These views may change as market or other conditions change. Actual investments or investment decisions made by Ameriprise Financial and its affiliates, whether for its own account or on behalf of clients, will not necessarily reflect the views expressed. This information is not intended to provide investment advice and does not account for individual investor circumstances.
Investment products are not insured by the FDIC, NCUA or any federal agency, are not deposits or obligations of, or guaranteed by any financial institution, and involve investment risks including possible loss of principal and fluctuation in value.
Stock investments have an element of risk. High-quality stocks may be appropriate for some investments strategies. Ensure that your investment objectives, time horizon and risk tolerance are aligned with stocks before investing, as they can lose value.
There are risks associated with fixed-income investments, including credit risk, interest rate risk, and prepayment and extension risk. In general, bond prices rise when interest rates fall and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer term securities.
In general, equity securities tend to have greater price volatility than debt securities. The market value of securities may fall, fail to rise or fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and unpredictably. Market risk may affect a single issuer, sector of the economy, industry or the market as a whole.
International investing involves certain risks and volatility due to potential political, economic or currency instabilities and different financial and accounting standards.
Ameriprise Financial cannot guarantee future financial results.
Asset allocation and diversification do not assure a profit or protect against loss.
6455144ACMR0324
https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/ma...ils=true&pid=7
David Janny
Financial Advisor | Managing Director
.................................
Ameriprise Financial Services, LLC
10 Wright Street
First Floor
Westport, CT 06880
Office: 203.349.4323 | Fax: 203.221.0391
Toll Free: 888.838.7705
https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/ma...ils=true&pid=8
https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/ma...ils=true&pid=9
Products from RiverSource and Columbia Threadneedle Investments are offered by affiliates of Ameriprise Financial Services, LLC. Investment advisory products and services are made available through Ameriprise Financial Services, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Ameriprise Financial Services, LLC. Member FINRA and SIPC.
****************************************************************************** "This message and any attachments are solely for the intended recipient and may contain confidential or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient, any disclosure, copying, use, or distribution of the information included in this message and any attachments is prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us by reply e-mail and immediately and permanently delete this message and any attachments. Thank you." ******************************************************************************
Imagine a scenario whereby we’d be shutting down the global economy, having much of the global population worried about their health and their lives, having people essentially go into isolation, all while governments were seizing more power than ever via mandates, monitoring, censorship and more powerful dubious “NARRATRIVES”?
There’s no need to “imagine”, that’s exactly what we’ve witnessed in the last four years since the pandemic.
Perhaps the most amazing part of the post-pandemic period, despite all the potential pitfalls the above description conveys, is that we’ve managed to create a speculative asset bubble that defies historical economic precedents in so many ways. “HOW BIZARRE”!
Welcome to “PART TWO” of my “HOW BIZZARE” Investment Letter observations. Much of “PART ONE” brought you info on what I view as distortions and divergences evident in asset markets. This time around, the focus will be more on evident distortions and divergences from historical norms in economics and other trends. If you haven’t read “PART ONE”, here’s a link to facilitate you getting up to speed:
https://cdn.ameriprisecontent.com/cd...6762422993.pdf
Our musical soundtrack is provided by New Zealand-based “one-hit wonder” band OMC, and their 1995 “HOW BIZARRE”.
STOCK MARKET DISTORTION AND DIVERGENCE PARTING THOUGHTS
I know I need to be moving on to an economic discussion, but I can’t help but leave you with some final stock market “HOW BIZARRE” observations.
According to Siblis Research, the total U.S. stock market capitalization at the end of 2023 was $50.8 trillion, with $42.1 trillion coming from the S&P 500; now add a couple of percent to account for 2024’s appreciation. Interestingly, this is down from the end of 2021 figures of $52.3 trillion and $42.3 accordingly. Again, focusing on “THE MAGNIFICENT SEVEN”:
the Magnificent 7 went from a combined market cap of $7.9 Trillion in September 2022 to now being worth $13.3 Trillion as of the end of February 2024.1
That’s an astonishing $5.4 trillion increase in just 7 stocks in 18 months in an overall stock market environment that has barely budged!
I’d even argue that the MAG 7 has recently even become only the MAG 4 or maybe even the MAG 2. It feels like everyone from retail investors to institutional investors to foreign investors is chasing the same handful of stocks. History strongly suggests this is a sign of an unhealthy market and the condition does not end well.
To make matters even more alarming, I suspect that this narrow chase and distortion that has pushed the major two U.S. indices (S&P500 and NASDAQ 100) up from their 2022 lows, is almost solely responsible for making investors believe that the economy is better than it really is and is obscuring broader economic and fundamental weakness.
What I consider to be recent investor FOMO (Fear of Missing Out), spurred on by an AI (artificial intelligence) driven mania reeks of excessive speculation. Tack on some recent spikes in many highly shorted fundamentally handicapped stocks targeted for “short squeezes”2 and you get a market environment reminiscent of the Q1 2021 speculative bubble burst highlighted by the dramatic falls in “meme stocks” like AMC and GameStop. Combine this with momentum-chasing “algo trading” and the passive index chase, and it’s not hard for many emotionally driven inexperienced investors and/or computer-driven professional investors to conclude that “fundamentals don’t matter” much anymore and “this time is different” in the stock market. Anyone that’s been investing during and prior to the GFC (Great Financial Crisis) and the Tech Bubble and even the 1987 stock market crash knows how dangerous an assumption that ultimately becomes.
No ones knows exactly when and from what point the inevitable bear market correction begins, but rest assured, I believe it will be a painful experience. My best advice is to the resist the chase, stay patient and keep your emotions in check no matter how frustrating it may feel on certain days.
DEBT DOESN’T MATTER EITHER?
The post-pandemic historic FED/government intervention and ongoing fiscal spending deluge also seems to have reinforced the notion among many, that “debt doesn’t matter” to the economy and asset markets, just as much as “fundamentals don’t matter” to equity markets. In my view, those subscribing to Modern Monetary Theory are having their “moment in the sun”, solely based on the fact that the economy and asset markets haven’t fallen apart yet; notice and take to heart the boldening of the word “yet”.
The rationalization of excessive fiscal spending begs the asking of a couple of questions. If the excessive debt creation is so “good”, why not do even more? Are we assuming that the FED and other global central bankers miraculously know the exact “right” amount of intervention and debt creation? If the debt creation is what is driving up asset prices rather than economic fundamentals, at what point do those elevated prices, increasingly acting as collateral for further debt creation, succumb to the laws of financial nature like overvaluation and overleverage? Isn’t it a bit arrogant to assume that it took humans this long to figure out how beneficial and non-threatening debt is to the economy?
My answers to those questions point to a potentially very challenging financial period ahead of us. It feels like one of the most daunting post-pandemic distortions is a belief in the “this time is different” school of thought. For those avoiding or ignoring the answers, or choosing historically opposed answers to the above questions, while enjoying the current environment way too much, I wish you luck. I’ll stick to my defensive and cautious views.
THE EXPANDING WEALTH AND INCOME INEQUALITY DIVIDE MEETS INFLATION
Two post-pandemic economic forces seem to be crossing paths in a not so cheerful way.
The historic post-pandemic interventions turbo-charged the widening wealth and income inequality gap that was already rapidly widening prior to the pandemic. This massive divergence is making it very difficult to assess any economic statistic, as the conditions of the lower 90% of consumers and top 10% of consumers have never been more different.
This how some consumers can pay tens of thousands of dollars for tickets to a Taylor Swift concert or for the Super Bowl (it’s a bit ironic that both events seemed to center around her), while growing numbers of people are overburdened in debt and are having problems paying bills.
One of the biggest curveballs in the post-pandemic period was the onset of inflation not seen in four decades. No matter if inflation rises much this year, the cumulative already built-in price rises are baked in the cake for those that are struggling.
One of the most representative messages of the year, revealing just how incredibly wide the wealth and income inequality divide has become, and how much strain the post-pandemic inflation is causing, comes from the McDonald’s CEO as relayed in this February MSN article3:
“According to Chris Kempczinski, McDonald's CEO, the company has seen a drop in low-income customers after it raised prices due to inflation. McDonald's estimates menu prices increased by about 10% in 2023 to keep up with rising costs.”
Imagine that; “low-income customers” are having difficulties in even affording McDonalds; this can not be a good economic sign. The comment also likely doesn’t bode well for future corporate profit margins in many industries.
Under the heading of “HOW BIZARRE” things have become, these opening lines from a 3/2/24 CNN article titled, “Americans’ Cost of Living Remains a Massive Headache, Even as Recession Fears Fade”4, are emblematic of our predicament and the huge economic dichotomy:
“The long-rumored recession has been postponed – or perhaps canceled altogether.
The soft-landing vibes are real. Inflation is cooling. The economy is growing at a shockingly strong pace. And unemployment hasn’t been this low for this long since the late 1960s.
And yet, hidden behind these bloomy-economic indicators, a frustrating reality persists: Life is far too expensive for far too many.”
Within a couple of sentences, you get a handle on terms like “divergence” and “distortion” that I’ve been using to describe the post-pandemic period. On a broader scale, my overarching theme of “THE GRAND ILLUSION” comes to mind.
ECONOMIC STATS COULD BE DECEIVING
Economic stats in normal cycles can definitely be deceiving, but in this distorted post-pandemic period, that statement likely rings true more than ever.
The point in the above CNN excerpt that expresses the “soft landing” consensus view is also interesting, as when that view becomes consensus after initial recession fears, just like we’ve seen in the last two years, the recession then shows up to surprise the consensus. Here’s a chart from Game of Trades, that shows you just how “consensus” the “soft landing” view currently is:
https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/ma...ils=true&pid=3
One of the reasons that may help explain why that lack of recessionary concern occurs is that it is not uncommon for a last GDP surge to occur just as the economy heads into recession. This chart from Francois Trahan of The Macro Institute illustrates that point well, look at the GDP surge right before the gray recessionary period:
https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/ma...ils=true&pid=4
Speaking of GDP and divergences, another historic divergence is occurring between GDP and the less talked about GDI. Here are some definitions from Investopedia to help analyze the situation.
“Gross domestic product (GDP) is the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period. As a broad measure of overall domestic production, it functions as a comprehensive scorecard of a given country’s economic health.”
“Gross domestic income (GDI) is a measure of a nation's economic activity that is based on all of the money earned for all of the goods and services produced in the nation during a specific period.”
Historically, GDP and GDI track each other very well, but an unusually very wide divergence is occurring as this chart from Eric Basmajian of EPB Research indicates:
https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/ma...ils=true&pid=5
I believe a key phrase in the Investopedia GDI definition that helps explain the extent of the current divergence is “money earned”; more than ever the current economic circumstances are grossly dependent on debt creation, which is not “money earned”. Over-reliance on debt doesn’t have a good historical economic track record, so I’d venture to guess that divergence narrows, potentially very hard in the downward direction; that obviously does not bode well for the economy and could signal the “delayed” emergence of the eventual pending recession.
From that analysis, I believe it’s fair to say that GDP is a lagging economic indicator. Likewise, employment numbers are also notoriously laggards. Also, similarly to the economic growth numbers, there are some huge divergences taking place. I’ll let the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) explain the difference in their two surveys:
“The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has two monthly surveys that measure employment levels and trends: the Current Population Survey (CPS), also known as the household survey, and the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, also known as the payroll or establishment survey.
Both surveys are needed for a complete picture of the labor market.
The payroll survey (CES) is designed to measure employment, hours, and earnings in the nonfarm sector, with industry and geographic detail. The survey is best known for providing a highly reliable gauge of monthly change in nonfarm payroll employment. A representative sample of businesses in the U.S. provides the data for the payroll survey.
The household survey (CPS) is designed to measure the labor force status of the civilian noninstitutional population with demographic detail. The national unemployment rate is the best-known statistic produced from the household survey. The survey also provides a measure of employed people, one that includes agricultural workers and the self-employed. A representative sample of U.S. households provides the information for the household survey.”
I’ll use a chart, again courtesy of EPB Research, to help explain another current large divergence taking place, according to the charts, the establishment survey is showing job growth of 1.9% while slightly recent improving, while the household survey only shows job growth of 0.1% while continuing to decline:
https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/ma...ils=true&pid=6
Similar to GDP and GDI, the “establishment” and “household” employments surveys paint two completely different pictures. It should come as no surprise that investors and the trading algorithms prefer the better of the two statistics in both categories; additionally, the initially reported number is preferred rather the future adjustments which have been trending negative. I’ve written before about how frustrating it has become to track economic statistics because of the frequent revisions, seasonal adjustments and changes in methodology that feel like they’re more prevalent than ever. It almost feels to me like the numbers are being massaged a bit as the economic stats seem to consistently paint a better picture than consumer sentiment has in recent years. Perhaps that thought is a bit controversial, but it certainly does seem to echo my theme of “THE GRAND ILLUSION”, and there’s no doubt investors prefer good economic news over more dour reports.
POST-PANDEMIC POPULATION IMPACTS
The pandemic certainly has had both physical as well as mental impact on the citizenry; these stats from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in a 10/26/23 Newsweek article titled, “Why Are Death and Disability Rising Among Young Americans?”6, raises some underreported questions and concerns about the pandemic impact on the employment statistics and what they say about the overall economy:
“America's labor force is facing a crisis, and no one knows exactly why. According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of American adults considered unable to work grew by more than 3.5 million since January 2020, with 1.5 million added just in the first nine months of this year.
That's a concerning 12 percent hike. But among the labor force, in particular, the disability number grew an astonishing 33 percent since January 2020. Over the same time period, America has seen what one insurance insider calls an "open secret" of increased excess deaths—the number of people dying above what is expected. These shocking developments are surely contributing to ongoing labor shortages.”
A 2/19/24 Axios article titled, “Retirements spike again as stock market booms”7 brings up another reason for the workforce depletion:
“The U.S. has about 2.7 million more retirees than predicted, Bloomberg reports from a model designed by an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.”
The excess deaths and disabilities appear to be lingering health aspects of the pandemic, but the retirement surge likely has the post-pandemic rise in the S&P 500 and other assets as a root cause. Recent retirees giving up income and banking on continued future stock market growth could prove to be a troublesome decision if we are in the late stages of the post-GFC investment cycle as I suspect. It’s not hard to conclude from those statistics that the unemployment statistics may be painting a rosier picture of the health of the economy than would normally be the case. Have you noticed the rash of recent corporate layoff announcements? Stay tuned.5
CONCLUSION
Getting back to the retirement surge statistics, if you’re a regular reader of my Letters, you might be aware that my best advice for those contemplating retirement is to factor into those plans the timing of the next recession/bear market; the reason being that the sequence of distributions from retirement assets for those just retiring is absolutely critical to the long-term viability and effectiveness of those asset pools. Any initial sharp drop in value of the asset pool in the early years of distribution, will likely have an inordinately negative effect on the ability to continue the assumed percentage level for future disbursements. This is an incredibly important consideration.
In my view, we are overdue for a recession and bear market, preparedness for that eventual outcome has never been more critical; as I often write, this very well could be one of the most important financial junctures in our financial lives. Don’t let the post-pandemic “HOW BIZARRE” divergences and distortions from historical norms, and the current very emotional “FOMO” investors appear to be inflicted with, fool you into thinking that things are better than they really are, and this time is truly different.
I’ll leave you with some words of wisdom from famed economist John Kenneth Galbraith to dwell on:
"The problem of the modern economy is not a failure of a knowledge of economics; it's a failure of a knowledge of history."
1 https://markets.businessinsider.com/...rillion%20mark.
2 https://money.usnews.com/investing/a...could-take-off
3 https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/comp...rs/ar-BB1hVOdp
4 https://www.albanyherald.com/news/bu...bbe13ba55.html
5 https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyl...ies-axing-jobs
6 https://www.newsweek.com/why-are-dea...pinion-1837006 https://www.axios.com/2024/02/19/ame...market-returns
7 https://www.axios.com/2024/02/19/ame...market-returns
The views expressed here reflect the views of David Janny as of March 5th, 2024. These views may change as market or other conditions change. Actual investments or investment decisions made by Ameriprise Financial and its affiliates, whether for its own account or on behalf of clients, will not necessarily reflect the views expressed. This information is not intended to provide investment advice and does not account for individual investor circumstances.
Investment products are not insured by the FDIC, NCUA or any federal agency, are not deposits or obligations of, or guaranteed by any financial institution, and involve investment risks including possible loss of principal and fluctuation in value.
Stock investments have an element of risk. High-quality stocks may be appropriate for some investments strategies. Ensure that your investment objectives, time horizon and risk tolerance are aligned with stocks before investing, as they can lose value.
There are risks associated with fixed-income investments, including credit risk, interest rate risk, and prepayment and extension risk. In general, bond prices rise when interest rates fall and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer term securities.
In general, equity securities tend to have greater price volatility than debt securities. The market value of securities may fall, fail to rise or fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and unpredictably. Market risk may affect a single issuer, sector of the economy, industry or the market as a whole.
International investing involves certain risks and volatility due to potential political, economic or currency instabilities and different financial and accounting standards.
Ameriprise Financial cannot guarantee future financial results.
Asset allocation and diversification do not assure a profit or protect against loss.
6455144ACMR0324
https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/ma...ils=true&pid=7
David Janny
Financial Advisor | Managing Director
.................................
Ameriprise Financial Services, LLC
10 Wright Street
First Floor
Westport, CT 06880
Office: 203.349.4323 | Fax: 203.221.0391
Toll Free: 888.838.7705
https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/ma...ils=true&pid=8
https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/ma...ils=true&pid=9
Products from RiverSource and Columbia Threadneedle Investments are offered by affiliates of Ameriprise Financial Services, LLC. Investment advisory products and services are made available through Ameriprise Financial Services, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Ameriprise Financial Services, LLC. Member FINRA and SIPC.
****************************************************************************** "This message and any attachments are solely for the intended recipient and may contain confidential or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient, any disclosure, copying, use, or distribution of the information included in this message and any attachments is prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us by reply e-mail and immediately and permanently delete this message and any attachments. Thank you." ******************************************************************************