Allright I just went into MT4 saved historical data into EXCEL once more and had some filters and statistical analysis running it over
.
Who here actually did that before developing a strategy?
And if yes what did you learn?
If you did so could you please tell me about how you interpreted the data you found and why do you keep searching for a winning strategy in that mess?
To make more clear what i mean:
It appears as if theres a "Heisenbergs Theory of Markets" at play so whenever i find a correlation it at the same times means my risk/reward ratio lowers and finally ending up with a 50-50 gamble, take that and factor in spreads and your potential exploit is done for.
Either that or im not sophisticated enough when it comes to VBA and my analysis.
To further analyze:
The market(s) im looking at if not in a strong trend (and even then) are mostly a random walk. Candles mean almost nothing to future price action.
So what im doing is im looking at timeframes. A trade in essence is a bet that at some point later down the line the price will be higher or lower.
As a consequence stoplosses or take profits can be disregarded and we can just say we exit every trade after X amount of time.
If i was correct and the price 15 minutes later is in my favor i take that profit it its not i take a loss.
(On stoplosses: What adding a Stoploss/Tp does is artifically set your risk/reward to a certain level and consequently modify your odds of winning the trade which in theory (and according to my tests) about balances out.) Edit: Ok except if i set those parameters to unrealisticly high levels, set a tp to 0.5 eur USD who knows you might be rich in 10 years but you might also have jumped off a bridge beforehand.

Who here actually did that before developing a strategy?
And if yes what did you learn?
If you did so could you please tell me about how you interpreted the data you found and why do you keep searching for a winning strategy in that mess?
To make more clear what i mean:
It appears as if theres a "Heisenbergs Theory of Markets" at play so whenever i find a correlation it at the same times means my risk/reward ratio lowers and finally ending up with a 50-50 gamble, take that and factor in spreads and your potential exploit is done for.
Either that or im not sophisticated enough when it comes to VBA and my analysis.
To further analyze:
The market(s) im looking at if not in a strong trend (and even then) are mostly a random walk. Candles mean almost nothing to future price action.
So what im doing is im looking at timeframes. A trade in essence is a bet that at some point later down the line the price will be higher or lower.
As a consequence stoplosses or take profits can be disregarded and we can just say we exit every trade after X amount of time.
If i was correct and the price 15 minutes later is in my favor i take that profit it its not i take a loss.
(On stoplosses: What adding a Stoploss/Tp does is artifically set your risk/reward to a certain level and consequently modify your odds of winning the trade which in theory (and according to my tests) about balances out.) Edit: Ok except if i set those parameters to unrealisticly high levels, set a tp to 0.5 eur USD who knows you might be rich in 10 years but you might also have jumped off a bridge beforehand.