Journaling my PA based method for BO

UPDATED Jan. 2018
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The journal is divided in two parts: in the first part I've recorded my practice journey while reading charts and getting as max as screen time as possible.
Second part is the most recent live trading P/L, you can find it here: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...2#post10649742
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Hi,
This is where I start to journal my journey towards reading pure price action for my Binary Options trading.

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Indicators:
- MTF fractal indicator M15
- MTF fractal indicator M30
- Value Chart

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TF: 5m
Expiry: 1 bar (same as entry) -> 5m
Session: 5.50-8.00 AM GMT (pre-Frankfurt/LO open)

Overall long-term goals:
- Performance: consistent +90% win rate
- Skill: intuitive reading of price movement based only off candle movement (EU pair)

This is an adapted version of a very popular binary options (BO) trading method from a very popular BO forum, created by a very popular BO trader nicknamed Hubba Hubba (you can google about it). Thanks goes to him and a few of his followers who have grasped the concepts and gracefully shared their way of trading this style which is mostly discretionary.


Naked charts analysis only. No BS talk about anything else here.

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Step 1 - Paper trade at least 500 entries on Strategy Tester using a "forward testing" approach (not backtesting)

- practice daily goal #1: get more ITM's than OTM's / session
- practice daily goal #2: get +50% winrate / session

Step 2 - ... will see as I move forward...

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06/03/16
#1 Call

Hyper-extended bar. Middle of UK session.
Break of channel + LL of the day.
Reversal entry for 15M.



Outcome is OTM



0/1

06/03/16
#2 Call

Market created new channel at new Low of day and pulled back up.
Retested the low and printed a nice looking pinbar, saying new support is holding.
Minor channel for a few minutes which was engulfed upwards. My signal for a 15m Call.



Outcome: ITM



1/1

06/03/15
#3 Call

Strong accelerating momentum upwards. break of recent R.
Market takes a breather, still some room to next R level... that is my signal for a call and ride the momentum move for 15m.



Outcome: ITM (seems like something happened this day, I can't recall exactly what... so maybe I would have not taken this entry anyway)



2/1.

06/03/16
#4

Event was NFP+UR.
Wanted a piece of the aftermath so I waited for signs of exhaustion of the move; visible declining of the momentum. Nice pinbar atop the last exhaustion push up. Bearish candle signaled that the market wasn't able to push higher at the moment. Could it move down for 15m?

Put 15m.



Outcome: OTM. (could have been a draw, but I will count it as a loss). 5m expiry would have worked out but I only want 15m in my plan.



2/2

06/03/16 EU
#5

Market still not showing real signs of exhaustion. Minor channel created around the last swing high, most probably market taking a breather.
Second bearish candle retesting small channel's Support showing no strength nor any sign of decisiveness, couldn't break the support level. Does this mean the upmove will continue in the next 15m? I think it will.

15m call



Outcome: ITM



3/2

06/03/16
#6

Break of last swing high with some convincing strength, altough the upper wick gets me worried. Waiting for pullback to broken R to see if it becomes S. Bearish candle says it does, as it can't break the level. That's my signal to keep riding the uptrend.

Call 15m.



Outcome: ITM (very tight - might have ended up as a draw, but still a valid 1pip distance in this broker's feed)



4/2

06/03/16
#7

Engulfing from the close of last entry has me convinced that a pullback is in the forming. Next bearish indecision candle shows me that the bulls have weakened and bears are now taking a breather. Also most recent S has been broken (fractal removed) with no strength upwards. Can this go down for 15m?

Put 15m.



Outcome: ITM (again very tight, but still valid 3 pips distance).



5/2

06/06/16
#1 - ITM

Market ranging for some time after first shake up from LO (London open). Break of the range to the downside after around 30 minutes of decreasing volatility. Candle with no wicks breaks cluster of support (1). Enough room to go and test day's low in the next 15m. Wait for weak pullback to level, that's my signal.

Entry PUT 15m.



Outcome ITM



1/0

06/06/16
#2 - ITM

Market made new Low of Day (LOD) LL, breaking cluster of support. Bullish candle engulfs and next candle (pinbar) at (1) altough a red bar shows exhaustion of the bears as bulls push price up with noticeable conviction by candle close. will this go up for 15m? Yes I think, it will probably move up to the of the large wick of the previous fractal R level.

Call 15m.



Outcome.



2/0

06/06/16
#3 - ITM

Market moved to the upside with some significant momentum, break R; bullish candles of increasing body size; large bullish candle retests the broken R turned S and moves further up; still some decent room until next level; wait for confirmation of a weak repel from the bears, which appears at (1).

Entry Call 15m.



Outcome



3/0

06/06/16
#4

Slight pullback to retest previous S. Nice engulfing to the upside (no lower wicks on both bars); Wait for weak repel from bears, confirmed by doji bar at (1). Some room to retest last R, a bit risky but I thought it was worth the risk based on the upward general sentiment and lack of any strong bearish bar up til now.

Call 15m.



Outcome.



4/0

06/06/16
# 5 - ITM

Market went up all the way to test HOD (high of day) and hovered there for a while, creating a channel; strong push down and break of this newly created minor channel showing bearish strenght; enough room to reverse down to the mean and to the nearest S level; so this looks like a decent reversal setup.

Entry Put 15m.





5/0

06/06/16
#6 - OTM

Market ranging for some time; spotted the march up based on the higher lows of the sequential touches at the mean (MA) so I was looking for a continuation to the upside; Nice looking 3 bar engulfing with a break of the most recent fractal; retest of the fractal (R to S) and close of the bar as a doji. My signal for the continuation upwards.

Call 15m.



Outcome.



I should have probably waited for price to break above HOD; market was too close to retest it and possibly reverse, which it did.

5/1

06/06/16
#7 - OTM

Market kept ranging for some time and finally broke out of the channel. Nice engulfing to retest previous S. Still no sign of weak repel from the bears but I considered that strength of bulls was suficient...

Call 15m





Outcome: OTM.

Failed to wait for more confirmation (weak repel from the bears) as well as for the proximity of 1370 RN.

5/2

06/06/16
#8 - ITM

Market reversed at RN and after making a new HOD. Noticeable fight between the bulls and bears so I waited patiently for signs of weakening and for a sign of a weak repel from the bulls, right after the most recent support got broken down with a very strong and solid candle to the downside. Next bar wasn't very convincing of such weakening but I took a shot at it...

15m Put.





It was actually a risky entry and the win was very tight as price was very close to the next fractal S level.


6/2


EDIT: 5 minutes later market went nuts as there was a scheduled event at 5:30PM GMT "Fed Speech"... so end of day for me.

06/07/16
#1 - OTM (0/1)

Attempt at trading during Frankfurt opening. Strong move up; market made new close high, broke recent cluster of R going up to test HOD; retraced slightly into the channel; the pinbar was my signal for a continuation upwards.

15m call.





Some anticipation mistake... and I didn't take the large wick from 2h before, which I should have interpreted as bearish pressure at the level.

06/07/16
#2 - ITM (1/1)

Strong momentum upwards at london open, breaking asian channel as well as the whole cluster of previous resistance; Solid large body candles, convincing enough that it can move some more upwards for the next 15m without any significant barrier, on sight; enough room as per seen on the left to next R.

Call 15m.

Hi tradista,

Nice thread!

Have never traded 15 m BO, but having been encouraged by your posts have tried to see if it's better than 60 sec. Have used Blau's Ergodic indicators. If interested, will post them here.

Trade well!

RisingSun

Hi RisingSun.

60s is too fast for me, I would need a super fast thinking flash mind that I don't have nowadays 3 wins a day at a steady pace and with enough time to think my entries, is more than enough for me as long as my winrate stays between 70% - 80% each day. In the end, it's the winrate that matters, we might even be taking 30 trades a day and get an even lower P/L than if you've only taken 5 or 6 trades.

My goal is to really sink in the intuitive reasoning behind chart reading.

About your method, sure, I'd love to know more about it, as long as we keep the discussion around price action and reading of the market. No indicators.

Thanks.