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  • #861
  • Jul 18, 2017 11:14am Jul 18, 2017 11:14am
Covering: SPY Aug 18th 235/238 short put vert for a .21 db, resulting in a small winner over the life of the setup, which started out as a put diagonal. Here's the entire trade chain: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SP...-PUT-DIAGONAL/
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #862
  • Jul 18, 2017 7:51pm Jul 18, 2017 7:51pm
Late Posts:

Opening: IBM July 28th 145/148/160/162.5 iron condor for a 1.10 credit; max profit; $110/contract; max loss/buying power effect $190/contract (earnings play). Will look to manage at 50% max profit.

Opening: CSX July 28th 50.5/53/56/58.5 iron condor for a .99 credit; max profit: $99/contract; max loss/buying power effect: $151/contract (earnings play). Shooting for 50% of $99 or about $50/contract.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #863
  • Jul 30, 2017 6:32pm Jul 30, 2017 6:32pm
The Week Ahead: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AA...HEAD-AAPL-UAA/
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #864
  • Aug 6, 2017 5:55pm Aug 6, 2017 5:55pm
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DI...-NVDA-VIX-GLD/

Am likely to do the GLD over any of the earnings ... . Plenty of time to "work it" without the headaches that usually accompany earnings plays ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #865
  • Aug 13, 2017 2:02pm Aug 13, 2017 2:02pm
The week ahead: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/VI...Q-DKS-FL-TEVA/
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #866
  • Aug 18, 2017 5:50pm Aug 18, 2017 5:50pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Covering: SPY Aug 18th 235/238 short put vert for a .21 db, resulting in a small winner
I had $247/$249 bear calls that came off today for full banana 75c. Were a headache for a month+. Now looking to go bull calls with the inevitable grindup post micro drop.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #867
  • Aug 20, 2017 6:22pm Aug 20, 2017 6:22pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}I had $247/$249 bear calls that came off today for full banana 75c. Were a headache for a month+. Now looking to go bull calls with the inevitable grindup post micro drop.
Awesome possum. At least we're getting something approaching a workable "rotation" here ... . Beats sideways chop.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #868
  • Aug 20, 2017 6:23pm Aug 20, 2017 6:23pm
Four options trade ideas for the coming week: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/HT...T-GLD-AND-XOP/
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #869
  • Sep 8, 2017 3:37pm Sep 8, 2017 3:37pm
filled SPY bear calls at the close today - Nov17 $252/255 for 90c credit. Don't wanna slog that out for 2 months so hope for a quick 50% out on hurricanes, earthquakes, nuke war and things of this nature....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #870
  • Sep 10, 2017 11:43am Sep 10, 2017 11:43am
Hi Guys

From last few days, I am researching online for FX options broker platforms in the USA. Why I am not seeing any good broker who allows retail investors to buy vanilla currency options. Does anyone know any broker in the USA? Am I missing something?

Also, I tried to find any broker outside the USA, specifically UK but I don't see any quality trading platforms which are regulated, have useful trading software platform and doesn't feel shady.

Could you please recommend how I can buy or sell currency options?
  • #871
  • Sep 17, 2017 12:56pm Sep 17, 2017 12:56pm
Quoting The Fool
filled SPY bear calls at the close today - Nov17 $252/255 for 90c credit. Don't wanna slog that out for 2 months so hope for a quick 50% out on hurricanes, earthquakes, nuke war and things of this nature....
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #872
  • Edited 1:27pm Sep 17, 2017 1:13pm | Edited 1:27pm
Quoting fxgyan
Hi Guys From last few days, I am researching online for FX options broker platforms in the USA. Why I am not seeing any good broker who allows retail investors to buy vanilla currency options. Does anyone know any broker in the USA? Am I missing something? Also, I tried to find any broker outside the USA, specifically UK but I don't see any quality trading platforms which are regulated, have useful trading software platform and doesn't feel shady. Could you please recommend how I can buy or sell currency options?
Generally, you're stuck with trading currency futures options here in the U.S., unless you want to go with something like Nadex (binary options). For various reasons, I'm not a fan of binaries since they offer almost zero advantage over the "option set" I currently trade and, in fact, probably have far less liquidity ... .

I've looked at currency futures options before: if you go with E-mini currency futures options, the liquidity isn't there on the options side (imho). And if you go with the vanilla futures options, you're trading "big" notational value ... . See http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/g...fications.html (there is nothing "micro" about 125k Euro-sized lots ... ).

The other disadvantage of trading futures/futures options as compared to spot is that your instrument set is limited. If you want to trade a "cross," you have to synthetically create one using futures/futures options (i.e., there are no GBP/AUD, GBP/JPY, EUR/GBP, etc. cross futures contracts). Creating a "synthetic" is probably not something a less sophisticated trader should be attempting.

There are also a few equities proxies (e.g., FXE (Euro), FXY (Yen)) on which you can either trade the underlying directly or the options on the underlying. I trade FXE on occasion using options as I would EUR/USD, but haven't monkeyed with the other currency proxy options due to their liquidity (ain't great).

Bottom line: if you can't afford to trade the futures contracts themselves (e.g., /6E), you should probably stick to continuing to trade spot ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #873
  • Sep 18, 2017 6:29pm Sep 18, 2017 6:29pm
Quoting The Fool
filled SPY bear calls at the close today - Nov17 $252/255 for 90c credit. Don't wanna slog that out for 2 months so hope for a quick 50% out on hurricanes, earthquakes, nuke war and things of this nature....
I'm voting for the Donald opening his pie hole at the U.N. and my girlfriend Janet talking about "quantitative tapering" "sooner than later" ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #874
  • Sep 18, 2017 10:25pm Sep 18, 2017 10:25pm
if there be no big exogenous booger bears, I have to bet on a continuing grindup or flatline for the bull market. The only thing that could turn the tide is a clear fail on the tax reform prospects.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #875
  • Sep 30, 2017 6:03pm Sep 30, 2017 6:03pm
Quoting The Fool
if there be no big exogenous booger bears, I have to bet on a continuing grindup or flatline for the bull market. The only thing that could turn the tide is a clear fail on the tax reform prospects.
The commentary on the probability of something ... anything passing is "mixed," with the line "The devil is in the details" being used repeatedly ... .

A ton of dry powder still on the sidelines, waiting for a VIX pop to load VIX shorties or one of the other little fellas (VXX, UVXY, SVXY ... ). Patience is required; as usual, I'm in no hurry. That being said, dry powder + "being in no hurry" = making jack diddly ... .

First /VX future at >16 ... wayyy out in April ... . Ugh.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #876
  • Oct 1, 2017 11:39am Oct 1, 2017 11:39am
The week ahead: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/CO...BBRY-TEVA-MAT/

There's not a ton of stuff; personally, I'm waiting for VIX "Term Structure" or "Contango Drift" trades run in tandem with SPY short puts (most likely now in Nov) on a pop to VIX 15 (strictly a patience game).

For you VIX, volatility products nerds: here's how I do the "Term Structure"/"Contango Drift" trades in these products: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/VI...RT-VOLATILITY/
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #877
  • Oct 5, 2017 6:41pm Oct 5, 2017 6:41pm
When relentless upward grind based mostly on stuff that hasn't happened (tax reform, regulatory reform, infrastructure) starts to become annoying: Now. Lol.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #878
  • Nov 22, 2017 8:14pm Nov 22, 2017 8:14pm
Well, I haven't posted in a bit ... . Broad market, the IV just hasn't been there for the picky premium seller, and I'm a picky bugger. That being said, I've been putzing a lot with VIX and VIX derivatives. You know -- the usual suspects: VXX, UVXY, and SVXY ... .

Instead of waiting for a pop, today I'm playing the ball from "where it lies" with a UVXY Jan 5th 12.5/15.5 long put vert:*

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UVXY LPV.jpg Size: 111 KB


Metrics:

Max Profit: .75 ($75/contract)
Max Loss: 2.25 ($225/contract)
Break Even: 13.25

* -- Going long put vert instead of my usual short call vert due to UVXY's IV here -- it's in the lower quarter of its 52-week range ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #879
  • Nov 22, 2017 8:21pm Nov 22, 2017 8:21pm
Secondarily (and partly out of boredom and having too much dry power just sitting there doing, well, not a heckulalot), I've been acquiring SVXY shares on VXST/VIX ratio prints of >1.00. >1.15 is nice, but it's hard to get in at exactly the right moment. In any event, I currently have shares at a cost basis of 102.17:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SVXY LONGS.jpg Size: 142 KB


In addition, and since SVXY could potentially experience a "terminal event," I bought a Jan '19 2.5 long put for uber cheap ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #880
  • Dec 25, 2017 1:54pm Dec 25, 2017 1:54pm
Now flat Jan expiries ... .

Here's how everything that came off in Dec worked out:

VXX Jan 19th 33/35 short call vert. Filled Nov 10th for a .66/contract credit; rolled up the 35 to the 36 for an additional .36/contract credit; out on Dec 7th for a .62/contract debit. .34 ($34)/contract profit.

UVXY Jan 5th 12.5/15.5 long put vert. Filled Nov 22nd for a 2.25/contract debit. Scratched out for a 2.24/contract credit on Dec 4th (most at-risk spread on).

UVXY Jan 19th 13/16 long put vert. Filled Nov 29th for a 2.29/contract debit. Out on Dec 11th for a 2.51/contract credit. .22 ($22)/contract profit.

UVXY Jan 19th 14/17 and 15/18 long put verts. Filled for 2.25 and 2.20/contract debits, respectively on Dec 1st volatility pop. Out on Dec 11th for a 2.64/contract, 2.70/contract credit, respectively. .39 ($39)/contract/.50 ($50)/contract profit, respectively.

VXX Jan 26th 30/33 long put vert. Filled on Dec 11th for a 2.22/contract debit. Covered on Dec 20th for a 2.58/contract credit -- .36 ($36)/contract profit.

SVXY long shares: Starting at the beginning of November, bought long shares on VXST/VIX ratio pops to >1.00, resulting in a cost basis of 104.69; exited on Dec 4th at 115.16/share (10% ROC). Were I to have been a little more patient, could have caught the remainder of the upmove to >125 ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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