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  • #421
  • Dec 18, 2016 1:40am Dec 18, 2016 1:40am
The Polar Vortex has arrived ... . Tomorrow's high here: 4 degrees ... . Tonight's low: -14.

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The system will move east. So ... do the natty bump.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #422
  • Dec 18, 2016 1:41am Dec 18, 2016 1:41am
it'd be cool to trade exotic options, but...I guess if those were pushed onto exchanges they'd no longer be exotic, no?....they're "exotic" because nobody knows what they are, if they're real, if they're the size they're purported to be, etc, etc....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #423
  • Dec 18, 2016 1:42am Dec 18, 2016 1:42am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
The Polar Vortex has arrived ... . Tomorrow's high here: 4 degrees ... . Tonight's low: -14.
shit, I was out today bitchin about 26F....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #424
  • Dec 18, 2016 1:44am Dec 18, 2016 1:44am
cold snap has not exactly been a boon for ng yet....maybe if it will stick around and double down a few times....we'll see
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #425
  • Dec 18, 2016 1:48am Dec 18, 2016 1:48am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}shit, I was out today bitchin about 26F....
This is plain ass brutal, but we get back into the low 30's next week ... . Doubt I'll be wearing shorts out again soon ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #426
  • Dec 18, 2016 1:49am Dec 18, 2016 1:49am
Quoting The Fool
cold snap has not exactly been a boon for ng yet....maybe if it will stick around and double down a few times....we'll see
Needs to be somewhat prolonged and appear in reserves ... . We'll know next report, probs, on the 22nd. http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #427
  • Dec 18, 2016 2:38pm Dec 18, 2016 2:38pm
Some iron fly defense tips: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/LU...TRADE-DEFENSE/ Basically, however, I do the same stuff with any "oppositional" setup, whether it be an iron fly, condor, short straddle, or short strangle.

With iron flies and short straddles, people tend to want to fiddle with the setup, because it's skewing out one way or the other all the time as price of the underlying moves toward and away from the short straddle part of the setup.

The key is to largely resist that urge, since you can roll into goofy, less manageable setups and/or take on additional and sometimes unproductive risk ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #428
  • Dec 19, 2016 8:27pm Dec 19, 2016 8:27pm
Covering: EWZ Jan 6th 28.5P/32P/32C for a 1.78 db. The long call leg is currently no bid, so I'll close it for near worthless if someone bids it or allow it to expire worthless. In for 2.22; out for 1.78; $44/contract gross profit; $32 net profit after fees/comms.

Opening: FXI Jan 27th 32.5/35.5/35.5/38 iron fly for a 1.53 credit. Max Profit: $153/contract. Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $147. Break evens at 33.97/37.03. Will look to manage at 25% max.

Looking to Open: $VIX Jan 18th 14.5/17 short call vert for a .55 credit. Probability of Profit: 86%; Max Profit: $55/contract; Max Loss: $195/contract. BE 15.05. This is a VIX Term Structure trade. If you look at VIX "spot" now, it's somewhere south of 12. The VIX futures contract, Jan expiry, however, is priced at 14.55 or so. The notion is that VIX spot and the Jan futures contract price will converge some place between 12 and 14.55 between now and the Jan VIX futures contract expiry. Naturally, VIX "spot" could converge with the VIX futures contract on 12, 13, 14.55 or -- in the event of a volatility pop -- above my short call strike. If that happens, I'll just roll the spread out for duration and credit until we fall back into one of these volatility lulls we're known to have ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #429
  • Dec 19, 2016 8:42pm Dec 19, 2016 8:42pm
When volatility pisses out of the broad market (as it's doing here), it pisses out of virtually everything.

There are currently only 4 underlyings in the TastyTrade Grid with an implied volatility rank/percentile above 70 that are 3 or 4-star liquidity: NFLX, FXE, GM, and UNG. Only NFLX and UNG have both an IVR >70% and an IV>50% ... .

The "Notable Stocks" grid has two additional ones: GPS (99/51) and HTZ (75/59).

The "High Options" volume grid: SHLD (96/110), SDRL (78/121), AUY (71/71).

Not a stellar selection ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #430
  • Dec 20, 2016 12:33pm Dec 20, 2016 12:33pm
Opening: IYR Jan 27th 70.5/73.5 short put vert for a .35 cr. This is a delta hedge for an existing IYR iron fly, which is skewing out delta negative more than I'd like. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/IY...5-79-IRON-FLY/

I pick up 10 long delta and reduce the net delta of the position to -56 or so. It's not much, but I like to paint with small strokes with hedges if I do them at all ... . The other option was to roll up the 75 short put a strike or so, but its delta value is 28, dollar value $80, so it's not approaching worthless yet ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #431
  • Dec 20, 2016 1:15pm Dec 20, 2016 1:15pm
Opening: FXE Jan 27th 97/101/101/105 iron fly for a 2.25 credit. Max Profit: $225/contract. Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $175 contract. Break Evens at ~98.75/103.25. Will look to manage at 25% max.

FXE's general background IV isn't high (hardly ever is, relatively speaking), but it's high relative to where it's been over the past 6 months.

Just looking to keep the theta on and decaying ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #432
  • Dec 20, 2016 5:23pm Dec 20, 2016 5:23pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Covering: EWZ Jan 6th 28.5P/32P/32C for a 1.78 db. The long call leg is currently no bid, so I'll close it for near worthless if someone bids it or allow it to expire worthless. In for 2.22; out for 1.78; $44/contract gross profit; $32 net profit after fees/comms. Opening: FXI Jan 27th 32.5/35.5/35.5/38 iron fly for a 1.53 credit. Max Profit: $153/contract. Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $147. Break evens at 33.97/37.03. Will look to manage at 25% max. Looking to Open: $VIX Jan 18th 14.5/17 short call vert for a .55 credit. Probability of Profit:...
No surprise that the VIX "Term Structure" trade didn't fill. Price pulled away from the setup and I wasn't going to chase ... . As usual, it'll be out there for "some other time."
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #433
  • Dec 20, 2016 5:29pm Dec 20, 2016 5:29pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
When volatility pisses out of the broad market (as it's doing here), it pisses out of virtually everything.
....2016 pretty well in the books, prolly snooze time til next year....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #434
  • Dec 20, 2016 7:22pm Dec 20, 2016 7:22pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} US side particularly with imposition of 50:1, FIFO/no hedging ... . Not that you really need anything more than 50:1 to blow up your account, etc., but that FIFO rule is plain ass stupid and actually increases probability of loss since FIFO -- in essence -- prevents you from erecting any type of protective hedge against another position unless you open up two separate accounts and work one as a hedge account against positions in the other -- cumbersome. Since there is a "two account workaround," why not just let me hedge in the single account?...
Hi ZS,

With FXCM it's possible to have two accounts joined under a single login. For example, you could use one account to go long EUR/USD and the other account to go short EUR/USD. I do this myself to run multiple strategies. All your joined accounts accounts and the trades in them are visible when you log into Trading Station.

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Click to Enlarge Name: multiple accounts 2016 December 20.png Size: 115 KB


Furthermore, transferring funds between your joined accounts is instant via our MyFXCM.com web portal.
  • #435
  • Dec 20, 2016 9:28pm Dec 20, 2016 9:28pm
Quoting Jason Rogers
{quote} Hi ZS, With FXCM it's possible to have two accounts joined under a single login. For example, you could use one account to go long EUR/USD and the other account to go short EUR/USD. I do this myself to run multiple strategies. All your joined accounts accounts and the trades in them are visible when you log into Trading Station. {image} Furthermore, transferring funds between your joined accounts is instant via our MyFXCM.com web portal.
An awesome workaround, Jase ... . You're actually making me miss trading spot now ... . It happens now and again ... . Drinking helps.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #436
  • Dec 20, 2016 9:30pm Dec 20, 2016 9:30pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} ....2016 pretty well in the books, prolly snooze time til next year....
Pretty much same here, too. Will glance off and on running into year's end, but probs not much else. I frankly did say that last week, but slapped a couple other things on. "Just one more in Jan." "Okay, this'll be the last one." "I really mean it this time ... ."

Have a hippy holidays out there ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #437
  • Dec 20, 2016 11:31pm Dec 20, 2016 11:31pm
Yeah I'd guess the US equities will settle into a low volume range, maybe trend up a little more --- anything you are contemplating for Q1 2017 will prolly still be there in a few weeks....Merry Xmas zeebs & good luck in the New Year.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #438
  • Dec 21, 2016 12:17am Dec 21, 2016 12:17am
Quoting The Fool
Yeah I'd guess the US equities will settle into a low volume range, maybe trend up a little more --- anything you are contemplating for Q1 2017 will prolly still be there in a few weeks....Merry Xmas zeebs & good luck in the New Year.
You, too, man ... . See you on the back side ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #439
  • Dec 21, 2016 1:53pm Dec 21, 2016 1:53pm
Quoting The Fool
cold snap has not exactly been a boon for ng yet....maybe if it will stick around and double down a few times....we'll see
lookin better, just need some persistence, is that too much too ask, frickin cold in the frickin Wintertime?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #440
  • Dec 21, 2016 6:33pm Dec 21, 2016 6:33pm
https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/daily_...isk-12-21-2016

Soz hints at revolutionary fee structure for tastyworks near the end of the vid!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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