Trading with momentum - yes I agree with you. Trend trading - no that don't make sense...
I marked the swings for you. If you look at the swings at the five minutes chart, youll see the trend. For example:
Please let me know, if I was clear
I marked the swings for you. If you look at the swings at the five minutes chart, youll see the trend. For example:
Please let me know, if I was clear
- #43
- Apr 23, 2016 9:16am Apr 23, 2016 9:16am
- Joined Oct 2010 | Status: Trader | 5,442 Posts
{quote} I've moved my reply here, as I don't wish to disrupt the flow of cat's thread.
- #45
- Apr 23, 2016 9:35am Apr 23, 2016 9:35am
- Joined Oct 2010 | Status: Trader | 5,442 Posts
Great to see so many great contributions to this thread, I didn't expect it, so that's great to see people taking an interest, which is the whole point. It's what ff in my view should be about, not just a place for certain people to show what a big dick they've got, but a forum on which to exchange ideas, knowledge and experience.
I'll put a few of my charts later today or tomorrow as time permits on a busy weekend
I'll put a few of my charts later today or tomorrow as time permits on a busy weekend
- #47
- Edited 11:28am Apr 23, 2016 10:50am | Edited 11:28am
- Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Stare Into the Lights My Pretties! | 795 Posts
Do you remember the "The turtles" ?? It's a great entertaining story.....but nothing more. Richard Dennis is one of the people who use to preach and propagate the trend following myth. In fact he belongs to some sort of cult-like society/sect along with "legendary" traders like Ed Seykota. These people use to claim that trend following is the holly grail and the best way to trade. I am sure most of you have heard the story of "The turtles" .....
Richard Dennis himself claims that he started with 400$ (during college) and made millions before he turned 26.....and he made it with a simple trend following system. Based on donchian channel. Here is the story https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Dennis
Some years ago, I was very interested in this story, but after some testing and investigation, the whole thing turned out to be just alot of BS!!
In short, I wrote fully automated EA which is 100% based on the original system and backtested it on all major commodity and currency markets (over 30 markets) for the last 15 years. And guess what? It doesn't work at all. It's no better than random.
And they claim they made hundreds of millions with this system......Yeah, right.
Here is the detailed description of the system :
And here my EA.
And Donchian channel indicator
You can test it yourself! I even added more variables, so you can make thousands of different combinations ( you can create different systems) . You can even reverse the system.....
Please experiment with it, you will find interesting things.
Richard Dennis himself claims that he started with 400$ (during college) and made millions before he turned 26.....and he made it with a simple trend following system. Based on donchian channel. Here is the story https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Dennis
Some years ago, I was very interested in this story, but after some testing and investigation, the whole thing turned out to be just alot of BS!!
In short, I wrote fully automated EA which is 100% based on the original system and backtested it on all major commodity and currency markets (over 30 markets) for the last 15 years. And guess what? It doesn't work at all. It's no better than random.
And they claim they made hundreds of millions with this system......Yeah, right.
Here is the detailed description of the system :
And here my EA.
And Donchian channel indicator
You can test it yourself! I even added more variables, so you can make thousands of different combinations ( you can create different systems) . You can even reverse the system.....
Please experiment with it, you will find interesting things.
- #48
- Apr 23, 2016 10:59am Apr 23, 2016 10:59am
- Joined Feb 2014 | Status: trading bank levels | 8,143 Posts
- #49
- Apr 23, 2016 11:06am Apr 23, 2016 11:06am
- Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Trader | 6,378 Posts
Yes but all this stuff you have here does not include the highly essential dartboard
- #50
- Edited 12:28pm Apr 23, 2016 11:51am | Edited 12:28pm
- Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Swing trader using Market Cycles | 2,152 Posts
Trend following is one of the biggest myths. The usual story - People think that if they can just follow the trend, cut the losses, and let the profits run they can beat the market.
People should focus on high win rate trades not on risk:reward . With high win rate trades you can scalp and you can follow the trend aiming for bigger reward. But there is a missunderstanding regarding the risk:reward. To work, the risk:reward strategy should have at least 50% win rate , considering at least 1:2 risk:reward .
If you think that discipline is the only problem, I challenge anyone, to show me a strategy (mechanical system with fixed rules) that is constantly profitable in the long run. I will automate the strategy 1:1 and you will see that it doesnt work, even if you follow the rules perfectly! When the trade sample is large enough, the law of large numbers will bring the expectation per trade to zero minus the transaction cost. We can do backtesting for the last 10 years, we can do forward testing, live trading, we can do monte carlo simulations.....whatever...
Well well. Call me when somebody will be enough stupid to share his profitable strategy , LoL{quote} Either you learn how to swim with the sharks, (you have to learn how the big guys manipulate the markets and anticipate their actions) or you will become food for them!
) But anyway, if you don't believe me, and think all of this is BS.....well then no one can help you! You just continue to follow the trend blindly and continue to lose your money just like the other 95%. But that's Ok! Not everyone is born to be a real player.
{quote} no more replies to your lunacy will be warranted
Markets especially FX are 20% trend 80% range.
Recent example NZD USD daily. A lot of traders are piled in LONG NZD USD on a fake break out. But it was an uptrend!60% retail is net long NZD USD. Now think about it. What the institutional players will do next? But it's an uptrend.
Money moves the market, not an indicator.
