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The Swamp

Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} death numbers are crazy. very close to all reported in China. ....
Ireland has 275 confirmed cases
Currently testing 1000s with 30,000 new test kits coming on Thursday
Experts say it is a 30% rise EACH DAY once results come in meaning there are 1000s who have it now

Italy has a 8% death rate which is much higher than what predicted, many EU countries predicted to follow Italy

Experts say 340,000 people will be unemployed by this Friday in Ireland
1000s of businesses won't reopen
Some helicopter money arriving but will it be enough?
Quoting messi80
{quote} Here we are only 7 days later. Pretty crazy.. You have another update of this chart DMA?
this one from yesterday

South K doing good.
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Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
Quoting antgal23
{quote} Ireland has 275 confirmed cases Currently testing 1000s with 30,000 new test kits coming on Thursday Experts say it is a 30% rise EACH DAY once results come in meaning there are 1000s who have it now Italy has a 8% death rate which is much higher than what predicted, many EU countries predicted to follow Italy Experts say 340,000 people will be unemployed by this Friday in Ireland 1000s of businesses won't reopen Some helicopter money arriving but will it be enough?
Italy is very strange case. some doctors here are saying that virus is mutating there. nothing official. but death rate is terrible.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
this one also interesting

 

  1. The graph shows number of confirmed cases per million inhabitants, plotted on a log scale, against time. Each US state curve is shown offset by the amount shown in the key so as to align the curves.
  2. Most US states are a long way behind European countries, but several now have comparable rates per million inhabitants.
  3. Washington is ahead of many European countries, and only 2 days behind Switzerland. It is not exactly clear how to place this curve though - European countries moved from 35% daily increase rate to 22% over time, but Washington may have done the inverse. The data is too noisy though to have any certainty.
  4. Colorado, New York and Florida appear to be increasing at close to the 35% daily increase rate seen in Europe.
  5. California shows a slightly lower increase rate, and the data is very clean. It is possible the slower increase rate is due to warmer weather.
  6. New Jersey appears to be catching up on testing, so any underlying rate is impossible to determine.

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Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
France going like Italy

We will see USA in a few days. so for unfortunately the rate is high


China curve until the daily increase rate drops below 0.1%. The glitch in the center of this curve is a change in measurement methodology. If Italy follows a similar curve, this wave of the epidemic may have abated in 30 days time, but this prediction should be tempered by the fact that Italy has not yet reached the logistics curve inflection point. On this basis, the worst is yet to come for many Italian hospitals.
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Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
Gbp/Usd Has Fallen 1200 Pips Over 7 Days

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Eur/Usd Has Fallen 550 Pips Over The Same 7 Days
Eur/Usd Has Some Catching Up To Do

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Cancelled Membership, Accused By FF Member(i'll Be Back) of Being A Con Man
Also USA has now about the same number of deaths like S Korea,
but this may be because lack of tests.

also big jump in cases.
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Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
Quoting DMA Trader
France going like Italy We will see USA in a few days. so for unfortunately the rate is high China curve until the daily increase rate drops below 0.1%. The glitch in the center of this curve is a change in measurement methodology. If Italy follows a similar curve, this wave of the epidemic may have abated in 30 days time, but this prediction should be tempered by the fact that Italy has not yet reached the logistics curve inflection point. On this basis, the worst is yet to come for many Italian hospitals. {image}
Points to note

EU countries only realising now the need to close borders but it's too late
Public health in most EU countries will break down with the projected curve
Italian doctors trying to save under 65s only
8% death rate is pretty scary considering UK predict up to 80% of population will get infected
British Medical Journal said this will be still here in 2021
Quoting DMA Trader
Also USA has now about the same number of deaths like S Korea, but this may be because lack of tests. also big jump in cases. {image}
From that I guess the big qn is why is the death rate the highest in Italy?
Some suggest it's because the population is old
Quoting antgal23
{quote} From that I guess the big qn is why is the death rate the highest in Italy? Some suggest it's because the population is old
i think a lot of people are infected but don't have the symptoms in US so that's why death is high
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
Quoting antgal23
{quote} From that I guess the big qn is why is the death rate the highest in Italy? Some suggest it's because the population is old
Italy is a very top heavy population.

People also need to consider the baseline death rate for old people (see image below - these are US Rates, probabilities are likely higher in other countries.).
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Someone who is 89 has a 15% chance of dying throughout any point of the year in general. Some one who is 80 has a 6% chance of dying in general during any point of the year.

I am not saying this isn't serious. I am just saying, it's not like we are observing a 3-6% death rate in a population whose baseline is 0.15% (like a 25 year old's). We are observing a death rate of 3-6% in populations whose probability of dying within a year at their age ranges from 6-15%+.
Good luck to the people over 60
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Motivation comes from within
took a break... just started to short this rebound at 1.1004... lets see ... .. H1 downtrend has 11 hours so far.. it shall have another day or two to go down.. I will continue to short EurUsd on its way up....
Quoting messi80
Good luck to the people over 60 {image}

Keep in mind, those are not the death rates, that is the frequency distribution of the ages of those who have died. Multiply those numbers by the coutrnies death rate to get the death rate by age data.

56% * 6% = 3.36% death rate for 80+ (of which 6-15% die within a year regardless).

0.3% * 6% = 0.018% death rate for <=49 (of which 0.15%+ die within a year regardless).

You need to normalize/relativize risk to get a better picture of what we are dealing with.
Quoting StormpikeT
{quote} Keep in mind, those are not the death rates, that is the frequency distribution of the ages of those who have died. Multiply those numbers by the coutrnies death rate to get the death rate by age data. 56% * 6% = 3.36% death rate for 80+ (of which 6-15% die within a year regardless). 0.3% * 6% = 0.018% death rate for <=49 (of which 0.15%+ die within a year regardless). You need to normalize/relativize risk to get a better picture of what we are dealing with.
That's kinda what I mean tho. Basically people under 50 have very little if no reason at all to be concerned about this.
Motivation comes from within
Quoting messi80
{quote} That's kinda what I mean tho. Basically people under 50 have very little if no reason at all to be concerned about this.
I think age is a factor to consider but the most important is a the condition of a person's immune system

A 15 year old with underlying health issues is as vulnerable as an 80 year old
Quoting Boulder
took a break... just started to short this rebound at 1.1004... lets see ... .. H1 downtrend has 11 hours so far.. it shall have another day or two to go down.. I will continue to short EurUsd on its way up....
flat at 1.0990, +14.. .. I am done today.. will trade again tomorrow..
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Quoting antgal23
{quote} I think age is a factor to consider but the most important is a the condition of a person's immune system A 15 year old with underlying health issues is as vulnerable as an 80 year old
Thats where the .3% comes into play and exactly these are the people we need to protect. We got all of this identified lets make the necessary changes and move on here. It’s really not realistic to think it will just go away by hiding from it.
Motivation comes from within
Quoting Boulder
{quote} flat at 1.0990, +14.. .. I am done today.. will trade again tomorrow.. {image}
annoying ... good day though
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
all bars, restaurants, hotels, coffee shops closing here starting tonight
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
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