Plan the Trade

Q's, rinse/repeat;



always subtle differences, but essentially the same thing.

Further to my earlier larger scale Q's chart;



I was confident of a drop, but we are now at a place on the chart that this scenario would also look right;



(and hence the problem with EW) - now we have two exact opposite possibilities. This is what i mean when i say, there are times when there is one likely direction whichever labels you apply, but there are many times, when there are more than one possibility, so knowing when is key. That was a lovely run short and makes for a great day, albeit, i had a wobble first off...

If i had a bias, i prefer the look of the first chart still... however, one can not simply freestyle a position. I managed to get a pullback trade away part way into the drop... Big 123, little 123... it's the law.

Here we are, everyone loves a guesstimate! Again, it generally matters little, as we MUST stay disciplined for the 123/123 approach, however, this would look really nice!!!;

Big123 small123;

GbpUsd LO, Big 123, small 123, turning point to the pip;

Ok, so it was the second option yesterday and hence why i exited my short where i did!

Remember, i suggested this was an ABC possibly complete and head up for the double top?



Well, here is the update;



I can not claim much credit for this, as i did state that i preferred the short side still and i failed to make anything from the move up (as it happened largely out of hours!).

Ok, missed this one earlier but certainly did not have such a rise afterwards in my mind;



This is one of the other times that i will not wait for a 123 to trigger and retest. If the rise to the fresh HH, looks out of proportion to the corrective move that creates the pullback, it is unlikley to be a 5th wave complete and more a wave 1 of the next cycle, thus you can buy the pullback at the subwave (i) of that (wave 1), (as per chart).

The above differs slightly to my method of last year, where i wanted to buy the following fresh high of the C&H as if it were a normal 123. Now, on the Dow example above, it mattered little because the gain thereafter has been huge and using a trailing 20MA would have seen +80 ticks easily enough... OK that is hindsight, but a great reminder, that if your position does go quickly into profit, then using the MA is a great way to maximise profits. You would be pretty p*ssed off to have banked 20 and patted yourself on the back, only to see it add another 60/80 pips...

Anyway, i will try to post some live examples of what i meant above about the proportions of pullback to the fresh HH. In essence this is it;

So we have two variants for trading method. Firstly the trend change (best if after a corrective move), so we are rejoining main trend again and thus off to new highs/lows (long/short) as a minimum. This is Big 123 followed by small 123 and retest subwave (i) of trigger leg, as suggested in previous few days charts...

Or

If a trend has established, look for C&H set-ups and buy the pullback to subwave (i) of the prior rise.

I will try to post some more examples of this...

Here we go... everytime we have a trend established, look for a fresh HH/LL (long/short) and buy the pullback at the subwave (i) of prior leg;

Damn, how the hell did i miss this?!;

Don't give up after a 'no connection'. This differs from chasing a trade entry. Look for another valid set-up;



I love it when i see several separate tests of a S/R level... break and immediate retest with very tight stop...

Quick +6 into a 'C' wave on the UJ a moment ago;



Now, at the time, i wasn't sure if it was abc, or whether it would be back to an impulse count long, but the fill and instant strong candle had to be locked in, as it was a strong likelihood.

Because of the reaction off of the prior Res line, i did not wait for it to become a 123 that triggers... in this instance, buying the following pullback would have failed as it would have seen the abc (B wave) complete and these are the very one's that fail... (if that confuses anybody, just ask and i will give more detail).

It is definitely harder work trying to find any forex pair or index to match either the YM or NQ for movements, when considering the spread. Oil moves plenty, but the spread is considerable. Dax also moves a lot, but simply does not trend as well.

I am starting to achieve what i set out to do by switching to futures and that is to spend less time at the screens, but being GMT +2, means my trading day will now start at !6:30 each day. Not what i am used to, but it does give me free time for virtually all day prior.

I find it difficult not to log in and watch if i find myself at my work station during the day, but this is a work in progress!

NQ;



Trailing MA20 just stopped out at +28

Ref the above chart...

I refer back to post 491. It matters little whether you view each drop as a 123 or as i prefer the C&H pattern. basically each fresh low validates the prior 123, so we place our limit order at the subwave (i) of the trigger leg (but only when it is small).

Ok, i've had a couple of requests to explain post 496 in a little more detail, so easier to make a post in general than reply individually...



The larger trend in the chart is long, so we could view current PA as a corrective move and then a 123 to get back into trend. We would normally wait for the 123 to trigger and then set our limit at the top of subwave (i) of the trigger leg (blue line), however...

The trigger leg did not go on to make a HH, thus on the more immediate trend, we are now short and the 123 was merely waves A&B (of overall B), thus there is a strong danger of lower to come in a C wave, as a minimum...

It is always a case of matching the size of the 123's to the trend we intend to trade. I showed an example in post 489 as to what i look for after any meaningful kind of pullback that then goes back to larger trend... otherwise we can drop down the scale.... any pullback that goes beyond a simple ABC means opportunities.

It's very difficult to write about each and every set-up, hence i try to always post a set-up and chart each time...