Plan the Trade

The purpose of this following chart is to try to map out where various Supply and demand zones are as PA prints. I probably should have swapped the colours around as i have Demand zones (buying) in red! but anyway, you can see how the various battlezones take place and move up whilst the cycle is bullish and then the real war starts when the Supply zones grow in number (selling), eventually they take over and trend changes;

So longer term EU for the coming week, is the opposite of the UJ, (USD weakness common theme);

Dow;



Fresh HH in 5w, retrace to subwave (i), fractallly again for next subwave...

If we are in a 5th wave, it may be impulsive, in which case the start of the week (Mon/Tues) will carry on the way it ended (ie - rocket)...

Then we will see whether we have crossover for a diagonal or a shallow wave 4 for alternation with the deep wave 2.

You could view it as a complete channel, with break in same direction as entry (bullish), retested and go;

Another take on the EU;



See how each Supply zone (now in red!) moves on to becoming a Demand zone as price moves up. An interesting viewpoint don't you think. This is also fractal just the same as EW. You can see where buying takes over each time and bit by bit the Bears retreat to fight it out a little higher...

UJ:



The second circled R/S line, shows that the point will likely be revisited only after PA has moved reasonably away from the price. There is chop either side of the line before the definite retest...

Try gbpjpy 100 tick chart

My IG charts appear to give very different scales compared to Sierra, H

GbpJpy used to be one of my favourites for obeying Fib retracements, but suffers a relatively large spread for scalping purposes, does move like a nutter most of the time though!

How is NY at the mo, mate? Isn't it pretty cold this time of year?

I live in Carolina it's been in the 60 70 today 40

Match the scales.

immediate new HH's retrace to last peak, after 5w, look to retrace to subwave (i) - (this is equivalent to H's first candle of the leg up - if you zoomed in it would show a small 123 in itself);

Revisit weekends chart of the UJ with Short bias (bigger picture);



Now, i have learnt never to expect all easy peasy impulse counts, but i've managed to get a short away this morning using the pullback method;



a little while later;



Now, whereas, using the pullback method, it is already a winner and could have (should have ?!) been banked, i'm leaving stop at +1 and gonna hope that there are no further X/B waves to the corrective move (Long). If so, i'm gonna try to hold out for a few hundred pips over the week and as i say, leave it to run in the background. The move down currently looks corrective in itself to the Long side, which suggests higher to go yet... Well, we will see, but risk already removed, so no big deal if not...

I gave up trying to do this a long time ago, so not really sure, why i'm not just scalping it, as my stop should be about 300 pips away to the North! Still, bit of fun isn't it?!

Of course, you can apply the basic method to any chart and any timescale. Don't forget to factor in time decay though. It becomes a lottery after an immediate retest.

I'm with Harold, in that i am not interested in second retests. Yes, they can often be the final test that soaks up the last of the orders, but often, it's the opposite and trend has changed against you. Safety is more likely in that first retest of prior S/D zone.

Here is the EU this morning. I would rather be going long on this pair as per the longer term plan, but for now, in the chart at least, trend is down...



Look how PA reacts in the red circles, buying demand zone, then in the second circle, the reaction is weaker. Then we break through and set our limit order to sell the retest from below. The result;



Here lies the problem outside of Futures - the spread in SB's kills scalping! This set-up took a while! There is not a lot of volume about this morning... very lethargic indeed!

Dax a moment ago, perfect!



Zoomed in on it. 123 triggers in 3w move, look for retest of subwave (i), (as i suggested at the weekend - on a larger tick chart, it will look like the first small candle of the upleg).

Quick +8. A dripping tap fills a bucket

Drip drip drip.

Dow;

Quick update on my 'longer term' UJ short from this morning...

Well, i closed it before lunch (GMT), banking 40 pips. I couldn't resist and although i suspected 11,200 for a natural bounce (as it has already done twice at the end of last week - thus stubborn support), i could not face watching this profit potentially ebb away.

Indeed, as per the chart, i think i would actually have ended up +1;



Now, ealier i wrote that i gave up doing this (holding for the longer game), a long time ago and thus i proved it yet again. I am not a Swing trader. I can not do it. Everything that i have gone through has been tailoured to get me to where i am now and that is a scalper... a grabber.

That bucket has certainly filled today and i probably should quit now, before fatigue gets the better of me and i start giving some back!

The downside of the above, is that i failed to get back onboard the UJ short and it is heading down nicely right now. I did catch a couple of scalps short for +22 (total) on the Dow instead, (generally in synch with UJ), but the problem is that i am going to curse everytime there is a few strong short candles strung together, now that i have abandoned the idea! I bet it will be 10,800 by the end of the week, but i can not handle the gyrations inbetween!!!

Had to post this when i saw it. Might have to reconsider the double retest theory, so will work on it. Here's why;

Earlier on the EU;



3 bounces off of Support, each one becoming less reaction. Then the break through and retest from below. I took 8 pips from it earlier, but missed the second retest, which obviously saw the rest of any buys evaporating and down she went...

Now compare to the Q's chart from earlier;



Pretty similar, don't you think?!

Further to above. I wish i had watched all of Harolds video from today before i looked at the chart. I watched half, loaded the chart and then saw the above pattern, before drawing it up as a comparison with the earlier EU set-up.

My point is, i should have seen how i would have viewed it unfold whilst it played out.

Here is the labelling of the downmove and i see from the video that H did indeed take the retest;



I really do not know how i would have read it in real time. I am combining an EW view with the Supply/Demand process and today it has worked well for me. I think i would have labelled the wedge in real time and probably thus thought it was an X wave, with another complete set to follow, but it's hard to say unless you play it in real time...

The problem is that my EW view means that the set-ups i take are discretional and i do not know yet, if that will be beneficial (keeping me out of losing trades), or a hindrance and means missing countless winners.

It's early days with the combination process and i struggle to take any change of trend after a visible 3w because to me, that is purely abc corrective. So far it seems that it means missing roughly the same winners as losers, but time will tell.

The only time i will take that trade is if it sets up like the Dax did earlier. (chart somewhere above from this morning). It is where the 123 gets triggered by a visible 3w move, thus i will then take the retest of subwave (i)

Ok, well lots to try and test over the coming days & weeks...

Do you realise that you lot across the pond are all part-timers?!

UK market open - 08:00. Close 16:30.

US Market open - 09:30. Close 16:00.

What's that all about?! )

I likes my sleep, so am considering moving... well that's if i'm allowed in, of course?!

I'm really starting to like the EU. I might subscribe for Eurex data, but i am not sure that it will run on Sierra charting? The rep from Transact told me that i would need to trade it through a different platform. If anyone has any info, it will be greatly received.

Have a look at this chart;



I was looking elsewhere and have not traded it (and current spread has opened up, so it's time for sleeps), but...

The channel touches, the breakout in same direction as entry (bullish) and you just know that after the chop, once we have moved far enough away from the top channel line, that we will retest it! ( I mentioned this at the weekend). It's just a cracking chart and i wish that i had not seen it now.... haha!

Utter waste of time this morning, after 2 hours of trading this following trade puts me back to roughly BE;



123 trigger and run, retest of subwave (i) of trigger leg, for short to fresh low...

I could do a post of all the mistakes i've made today, but i'm not sure it would be educational.. more damn right depressing, i think! (

Again, if i had any opinion on it at all, it would be that i am feeling extremely tired and it just goes to show that you need to be mentally tip top to trade successfully...

Doubt i will do (lose) any more today. Start afresh tomorrow.