Funsen Stuff

Adapt or die.
Nothing is either good nor bad, but thinking makes it so.
A man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest.
If you don't like the view, change the perspective.

Hi: I refollowed some of my own advice and searched the HalfTrend indicator. Got a nice surprise and found a thread on FF. Type "my line in the sand" into search and you will find a nice thread about it. The first 10 pages give some nice examples of how it can be used. After that it gets into market structure which I am starting to read since it seems interesting. If you need any stuff let me know and I will see what I can do. Remember I am just a fellow traveller trying to figure it out. Dave.

Hi: Here is the breakout_box indicator. I guess this is what you want. You have to play with the colors to get a visual that suites you. I also put the link to the original thread, it is 10 pages long and worth looking at. There are variations of the original available there. Dave.

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=17350

Thanks Dave, given that I am a resident retired Kiwi, how could I decline adding it to chart and giving it a nudge.
cheers Donald.

Desiderata

GO PLACIDLY amid the noise and the haste, and remember what peace there may be in silence. As far as possible, without surrender, be on good terms with all persons.

Speak your truth quietly and clearly; and listen to others, even to the dull and the ignorant; they too have their story.

Avoid loud and aggressive persons; they are vexatious to the spirit. If you compare yourself with others, you may become vain or bitter, for always there will be greater and lesser persons than yourself.

Enjoy your achievements as well as your plans. Keep interested in your own career, however humble; it is a real possession in the changing fortunes of time.

Exercise caution in your business affairs, for the world is full of trickery. But let this not blind you to what virtue there is; many persons strive for high ideals, and everywhere life is full of heroism.

Be yourself. Especially do not feign affection. Neither be cynical about love; for in the face of all aridity and disenchantment, it is as perennial as the grass.

Take kindly the counsel of the years, gracefully surrendering the things of youth.

Nurture strength of spirit to shield you in sudden misfortune. But do not distress yourself with dark imaginings. Many fears are born of fatigue and loneliness.

Beyond a wholesome discipline, be gentle with yourself. You are a child of the universe no less than the trees and the stars; you have a right to be here.

And whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should.

Therefore be at peace with God, whatever you conceive Him to be. And whatever your labors and aspirations, in the noisy confusion of life, keep peace in your soul. With all its sham, drudgery and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world. Be cheerful. Strive to be happy.

By Max Ehrmann 1927
Original text

As if not messy enough. If it helps, and for now I think it does, added the 30 period McGinley Dynamic. My aim is to scalp out little pieces of money, not shoot for the fences. If the shot comes though I will hope to take it. Also turned the Horizontal option on with HalfTrend, looking to see if they would work as stop loss levels. Sure the chart is messy but it is my mess. Dave.

Market structure, PA. I wonder how many people look into why prices are where they are. Explore Chris Lisa. Think of the order book and what it means and how prices act.

Charts to review: saw, knew, did not act. ACK. Review for next day continuation patterns.

Prices go up because there are more buyers than sellers. THE OBVIOUS. Will go down when the last buyer buys. Think this way.

Prices go down because there are more sellers than buyers. THE OBVIOUS. Will go up when the last seller sells. Think this way.

Hi Donald: Boy I am slow sometimes. Forgot and then did not look to see the NZ in the indicator name. Renamed for my use. Figured that the NZ open was the most important. London, New York, Bah. The day begins in New Zealand.

In a previous life I had the pleasure of playing tourist in your country. GORGEOUS Is the one place I would definitly revisit in a heartbeat. Dave.

Livermore: "Nothing ever changes in Wall Street, just the pockets." Pictures of unchanging. Wyckoff did his stuff how long ago. Only the pockets change.

Series of GJ. How high can you go. 144.000 nice number. R78 a little bit over that.
Can't dance faster than the music.

Top study GJ. Last post was lead up pictures. Top picture start? Look for move up to test 144.000.
Unlabelled fat red line is Silent Father daily PP. Note may as well be 144.000.

Looking at the trees and not the forest. Dang. While busy looking at 1M and 15M I should have gone out in time. Was looking for down clues when a quick glance at a 4H or Daily would have shown that looking for up clues would have been the better way. Mind you this is 20/20 but you have to look at the longer picture. Lesson learned.

The following are quotes from a fairly interesting book. Still reading but the following struck a chord.

Time
Compression
Trading
Exploiting Multiple Time
Frames in Zero-Sum Markets
JASON ALAN JANKOVSKY

PDF FILE AT THE BOTTOM

see the markets as a never-ending conflict between the net winner and the net loser. I know the loser is using some form of analysis to get positioned, and the winner is saying, “That’s okay—have all you want.”

I think part of understanding time compression is learning to see how the net winner outthinks the net loser. The net winner wants to let the net loser in when the net loser says, “I can’t wait any longer—get me in.”

Learning to see the market as a dance between opening and closing positions is part of understanding time compression, but the most significant part is the issue of forced liquidation to close a position.

It is vital to understand that forced liquidation involves only losing positions. Winners have a lead before they have to do anything. This is why the issue of losing traders and how they liquidate when they have no choice is so critical to exploiting time compression.

Once the price decline has happened, there can be only two results:

1. The shorts from somewhere above the market have a gain. The larger this gain becomes, the greater the conflict becomes to find a liquidation point (use a buy order to cash out a profit).
2. The longs from somewhere above the market have a loss. The larger the loss, the greater the conflict becomes to find a liquidation point (use a sell order to cash out the loss).

In both cases, the only thing that is certain is that the shorts are making money and the longs are losing money. When the conflict reaches a climax, someone decides to do something and the order flow changes again.

the idea that TA is used by the majority of losing traders as being
very important. Losing traders want to analyze the market. Winning
traders want to exploit the losers. There is no way to profit in
a zero-sum market unless you are on the right side of the order flow.
Time compression is how you find the loser, and knowing how losing
traders liquidate their losers is the central part of understanding
time compression.

The whole point of understanding time compression and using
multiple time frames is to move out of evaluation thinking into observational
thinking; to open your perspective and reduce your illusion
about how to win more often. In order to do that, you need to
turn your focus away from What does this mean? to What is happening?
In the final analysis, you can win only when you are on the right
side of the order flow. Understanding how the order flow develops
and when it is ready to change is a different process from predicting
prices. It involves an understanding of what motivates people to do
certain things, how they behave when under perceived threat, what
they value when placing themselves at risk, and what will change
their minds and force them to liquidate

There are unlimited ways of looking at the markets.
The typical losing traders have narrowed their perspective on price potential
to what fits neatly and securely into their existing paradigm, and
most likely that is based on trying to answer the question What does this
mean and how do I profit? Because losing traders are trying to evaluate
the market rather than observe the market, most of the potential in the
order flow is never going to be apparent to them.

It is imperative that you learn to think outside of your
own point of view and learn to think from the market’s point of view,
regardless of whether you agree with it or not. Think of it this way:
This is what the market says; this is what I do. What you personally
think really doesn’t mean anything

>>>>>Uptrend or downtrend is an order-flow imbalance. This is the natural state of the market.
>>>>>Range is an order-flow balance. This is a temporary state and is physically impossible to continue

How are the losers thinking. How are the winners thinking.




1. OPTIMISM – It all starts with a hunch or a positive outlook leading us to buy.

2. EXCITEMENT – Things start moving our way and we get giddy inside. We start to anticipate and hope that a possible success story is in the making.

3. THRILL – The market continues to be favorable and we just can't help but start to feel a little "Smart." At this point we have complete confidence in our trading system.

4. EUPHORIA – This marks the point of maximum financial risk but also maximum financial gain. Our investments turn into quick and easy profits, so we begin to ignore the basic concept of risk.

5. ANXIETY – Oh no - it's turning around! The markets start to show their first signs of taking your gains back. We still remain greedy and think the long-term trend is higher.

6. DENIAL – The markets don't turn as quickly as we had hoped. There must be something wrong we think to ourselves. Our view now shortens to a near-term hope of an improvement.

7. FEAR – Reality sets in that we are not as smart as we once thought. Instead of being confident in our trading we become confused. At this point we should get out with a small profit and move on but we don't for some stupid reason.

8. DESPERATION – All gains have been lost at this point. We had our chance to profit and missed it. Not knowing how to act, we attempt to do anything that will bring our positions back into the black.

9. PANIC – The most emotional period by far. We are clueless and helpless. At this stage we feel like we are at the mercy of the market and have absolutely no control.

10. CAPITULATION – We have reached our breaking point and sell our positions at any price. So long as we can get out of the market to avoid bigger losses we are content.

11. DESPONDENCY – After exiting the markets we do not want to enter a trade buy ever again. However, this rare point marks the point of maximum financial opportunity.

12. DEPRESSION – We drink, cry and/or pray. How could we have been so dumb we think to ourselves. Some start to correctly look back and analyze what went wrong. Real traders are born here, learning from past mistakes.

13. HOPE – We can still do this! Eventually we return come to the realization the market actually does have cycles (shocking). We begin to start analyzing new opportunities.

14. RELIEF – The markets are turning positive again and we see our prior investment come back around. We regain our faith (although small) in our ability to invest our money. The cycle start all over again!

Graphs created using random numbers. Look familiar. The second and fourth graphs are simply flipped over versions. To me this simply means you need some rules. <G> Then the deal is keeping the rules.

Story: There is a very long and busy street where I live. Three lanes each way. Lots of times I need to travel from one end to the other. The rule is to stay in the middle lane. Seems boring and it is. Lets jump to the curb lane, but then there may be parked cars and people turning, can slow you down. Okay, jump to the outside lane, but again there may be cars turning, can slow you down. Ahh, but come on, isn't it way more fun to do those lane changes, take a chance, get to the end faster. Maybe, maybe not. Most of the time it is way better to chill out, listen to the radio and take the boring middle lane rule.

Try it the next time you are driving. If you cannot follow a rule as simple as this then how can you follow a trading rule.
Of course there are times to break the rule. If it is obvious that the middle lane is stopped by an accident or a really really slow driver, than break the rule. But do not make a habit of it and at least have a rule to start with.

Today I have a very simple rule.
Pink arrow up>>>long.
Pink arrow down>>>short.
Exit and reverse position on change and remember to wait for candle close.

Can I follow this rule? Not a hard one. Stay in the middle lane.

So far so good. Pink arrows only. But, it might be better to add in the TTMAR using the TMA or.....? It may not make profit sense to wait out the reverse signal. The chart shows it would have been better to bail earlier than the reverse signal. Will monitor this out and think on it for awhile.

Interesting stuff from TMA thread and Aussie one. Observe and maybe apply.
I like the Losers/Winners better than supply/demand, support/resistance. Better thought of zero sum game and what controls price.
Play on.

Good start. Signals only except for a couple. Like pink arrows. TMA seems okay. Remember others. GU closed because of Davit S100.
Almost close FEB 05 result.

Avoidance behavior. Have 4 positions open all based on signals but now all under water. Not ugly but not pretty. Patience when you want instant gratification. Sit tight and wait for the counter signals.

So in the meantime I post this. Found a nice little script for converting account history to excel file. Attached below along with picture of Feb activity. Just top of hour when it seems folks get busy so back to monitor.

Pink arrow is okay but.....look at using breach of blue line to exit trends before counter signal.