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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #10,521
  • Sep 16, 2009 8:42am Sep 16, 2009 8:42am
Quoting maheswara
1.47 sure not easy to crack...
Yep, if it does watch out.
  • #10,522
  • Sep 16, 2009 8:46am Sep 16, 2009 8:46am
Quoting auxesis
Yep, if it does watch out.
yeah also notice every nice down move is countered easily with a strong up rally ,
can see heavy buying at every 50-70 pips retracements we got ...
wont be surprised to see 1.5 soon...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #10,523
  • Sep 16, 2009 8:48am Sep 16, 2009 8:48am
Quoting maheswara
yeah also notice every nice down move is countered easily with a strong up rally ,
can see heavy buying at every 50-70 pips retracements we got ...
wont be surprised to see 1.5 soon...
Only counter to that is the Yen seems to be selling off today, the market fundamentals seem mixed from what they have been doing? The TIC data did something or someone is defending 90 on the Yen.

Edit: It will be interesting to see if the NY boys will shove it higher after London closes like yesterday
  • #10,524
  • Sep 16, 2009 8:56am Sep 16, 2009 8:56am
here we go,

and smack
  • #10,525
  • Sep 16, 2009 8:57am Sep 16, 2009 8:57am
Quoting auxesis
Only counter to that is the Yen seems to be selling off today, the market fundamentals seem mixed from what they have been doing? The TIC data did something or someone is defending 90 on the Yen
I see...
anyway just be careful , they want this euro to go to a specific price level I feel ... until a clear sign of reversal , Ill be wary buying the dollars

as usual stay nimble and dance the chart
good trade and good day
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #10,526
  • Sep 16, 2009 9:02am Sep 16, 2009 9:02am
Quoting maheswara
I see...
anyway just be careful , they want this euro to go to a specific price level I feel ... until a clear sign of reversal , Ill be wary buying the dollars

as usual stay nimble and dance the chart
good trade and good day
Yep, You too.
  • #10,527
  • Sep 16, 2009 10:15am Sep 16, 2009 10:15am
4700 support test looks passed ... iam litlle more confident to be long now. just 2 scouts @4710 and 4700.
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #10,528
  • Sep 16, 2009 10:55am Sep 16, 2009 10:55am
I have managed to scrape out 60 pips this afternoon.(Eur/Usd)
(Which I am pleased about)
In a sort of dancing...??

A couple of reasonable runs - but mostly bit and pieces..
(enemy provisions being preferable etc etc)

When attacking though I just cant seem to add to my troops..or put a simple skew together.
FTI would probably say rigid mindset & undercapitilised (right of course)

Any suggestions/guidance appreciated
(I am working on the practise and practise )

many thanks
  • #10,529
  • Sep 16, 2009 10:58am Sep 16, 2009 10:58am
Quoting auxesis
Maybe it's not a good description, but a visual difference of buying retrace vs. break of prior high,

And that's not giving the possibility that you are unable to exit above the prior high in profit, in that case you must wait for the following correction to complete and make another high to exit, in this case you are rescuing to maintain profit in the trend.
since your post i entered most trades on retracements. some where at the bottom of a retrace and some where half way a leg against me. but i believe that with more experience i can feel when a retracement runs out of steam. it still feels a bit like a gamble but this way it's easier to keep my average position below the prior low.

in my old MO i would be waiting for 4720 to be broken wich would be dangerous because we could very wel end up in a range or worse.

thank you for the support and making the charts

pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #10,530
  • Edited 12:19pm Sep 16, 2009 11:13am | Edited 12:19pm
Quoting j-pax
since your post i entered most trades on retracements. some where at the bottom of a retrace and some where half way a leg against me. but i believe that with more experience i can feel when a retracement runs out of steam. it still feels a bit like a gamble but this way it's easier to keep my average position below the prior low.

in my old MO i would be waiting for 4720 to be broken wich would be dangerous because we could very wel end up in a range or worse.

thank you for the support and making the charts

pax
J-pax,

As you increase skew on the attack your average position will quickly approach your current level, as you unwind your average reverses just as quick. Don't over stay your attack with the bulk of the skew, but try to take it off as price extends past your old high or low ( note your initial capture is on feel, it can be on a single bar with a good break, and might not necessarily be in new territory. the idea ((imho)), is to take some profit as a cushion for the remainder of your position and then take the rest of your profit by feeling the end with the remainder of your added skew, try to leave your scout.

multiple entries even if they are half or quarter size of what would be your normal scout size will help.

Don't worry so much about average below the last high or low just keep average in the black and take individual levels of skew when they are in profit

practice practice practice,

regards,

Edit: I'm trying to quote FTI,he said once it was like a rubber band, you take the blows as they go against you and then whack them hard as it snaps back. You like breakouts, something to think about, there's waves inside waves.
  • #10,531
  • Edited 11:59am Sep 16, 2009 11:37am | Edited 11:59am
Now i go USD bull EUR/USD-sell 1.4725

So where is it? The USD bull??? ...Wake up you lazy bull.... eto svoloc...
  • #10,532
  • Sep 16, 2009 12:25pm Sep 16, 2009 12:25pm
Quoting Fana
Now i go USD bull EUR/USD-sell 1.4725

So where is it? The USD bull??? ...Wake up you lazy bull.... eto svoloc...
Fana,

it's getting late in the day, NY boys will be calling it quits quickly if not just taking some profits now. There's no dollar bull yet, bull has been bar-b-qued. Best you can hope for now is range trading till Tokyo says hello.

The dollar is seen as a risk trade now replacing the yen, for big boys against other markets, as they are going up dollar goes down down down. Don't fight it, just wait for it to come back and trade it till it shows signs of reversing, which hasn't happened yet

fwiw

gotta run, check back in during the Asian session.
  • #10,533
  • Sep 16, 2009 12:35pm Sep 16, 2009 12:35pm
Auxesis : Thank you. Yes i see that it is not evident bull...So I will take a little profit because i am already in... and after than i will be waiting.
  • #10,534
  • Sep 16, 2009 2:01pm Sep 16, 2009 2:01pm
Quoting auxesis
J-pax,

As you increase skew on the attack your average position will quickly approach your current level, as you unwind your average reverses just as quick. Don't over stay your attack with the bulk of the skew, but try to take it off as price extends past your old high or low ( note your initial capture is on feel, it can be on a single bar with a good break, and might not necessarily be in new territory. the idea ((imho)), is to take some profit as a cushion for the remainder of your position and then take the rest of your profit by feeling...
i have alot of thinking to do before i reply to your support... i had some wine and want to read it again later. i think you wrote some clues on how MM. can dictate the dance. this "mystery" is why i was worrying about where my average position should be after an attack (i said below previous low). this MO is useless after a stong impulse.

i am now thinking about volatility and flexible skew.

i hope you had a good rest. i need alot of sleep so i will be back during london session.

greetings, pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #10,535
  • Sep 16, 2009 2:23pm Sep 16, 2009 2:23pm
Quoting gdb
I have managed to scrape out 60 pips this afternoon.(Eur/Usd)
(Which I am pleased about)
In a sort of dancing...??
Congrats...
Quote
When attacking though I just cant seem to add to my troops..or put a simple skew together.
FTI would probably say rigid mindset & undercapitilised (right of course)

Any suggestions/guidance appreciated
(I am working on the practise and practise )

many thanks

With its own time.... small suggesstion try adding one size same as scout with its own time you will be able to attack..

try 1, 1 ,1 ,3 simple skew first....

also read AOW...

most of us have problem in attacking...

V
  • #10,536
  • Sep 16, 2009 3:03pm Sep 16, 2009 3:03pm
J-pax,

Understand I am learning too.. some pics to ponder, starting with FTI's famous chart.

Know that there are a million, zillion different ways a chart can play out, these are just to provoke some thought and not the answer. Remember in an up trend we want to Buy weakness (valleys) and Sell strength (peaks).

You can trigger candles, levels whatever but you want but the best is to learn to feel the market getting ready to pounce.

for what they are worth,
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  • #10,537
  • Sep 16, 2009 7:01pm Sep 16, 2009 7:01pm
Thanks Auxesis & Maheswara for answering my question.

Auxesis your charts on post 10543 are great I'll print one of them out and stick on my black board to remind how to pick direction, those charts are very clear pictures. Coz many time I picked wrong direction then the rescue became big big losses, that why I desire not to go for live.

I'll demo another few weeks to understand & feel market more b4 I go for live. I think I'll limit my rescue operation to only one rescue only until I can feel the dancing tempo I might add more.
I've read Fti chart b4(not that clear understanding) but I'm still doing my revision when I read up to that page again I might ask you question.


Know that there are a million, zillion different ways a chart can play out, these are just to provoke some thought and not the answer. Remember in an up trend we want to Buy weakness (valleys) and Sell strength (peaks).

You can trigger candles, levels whatever but you want but the best is to learn to feel the market getting ready to pounce.

for what they are worth,[/quote]

The charts are very clear pictures

Hope you gain lots lots of pips.

pete
  • #10,538
  • Sep 16, 2009 7:08pm Sep 16, 2009 7:08pm
Quoting auxesis
J-pax,

Understand I am learning too.. some pics to ponder, starting with FTI's famous chart.

Know that there are a million, zillion different ways a chart can play out, these are just to provoke some thought and not the answer. Remember in an up trend we want to Buy weakness (valleys) and Sell strength (peaks).

You can trigger candles, levels whatever but you want but the best is to learn to feel the market getting ready to pounce.

for what they are worth,
much appreciate Auxesis ! thats very good pic/info
  • #10,539
  • Edited 7:58pm Sep 16, 2009 7:27pm | Edited 7:58pm
Hey everybody, just understand the charts are just basics, something to make you think, normal price action is ever evolving, at any time a base of the trend can give way, as a result price reverses or consolidates. you have to be able to adjust and react on the move.

Somewhere in this thread is a pdf file from Martin Pring on Peaks and Troughs, find it, it will give you some useful basics for trend study.

regards,

a

read and understand this post by FTI, you may want to go back and review the pages just before and after to get a good feel for the question line.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=813
  • #10,540
  • Sep 16, 2009 8:24pm Sep 16, 2009 8:24pm
Quoting pete.alfa
Thanks Auxesis & Maheswara for answering my question.

Auxesis your charts on post 10543 are great I'll print one of them out and stick on my black board to remind how to pick direction, those charts are very clear pictures. Coz many time I picked wrong direction then the rescue became big big losses, that why I desire not to go for live.
Be carefull..ask yourself why you have big losses...it is probably due to MM and NOT to not knowing the right direction. In this market, the bulls and the bears make money...and the pigs get wiped out...Although I did not understand it at the beginning, now I definetily see it a terrible truth. The direction is NOT as imporant as the 3 trading component: market structure, capitalization and YOU!

Quote
I'll demo another few weeks to understand & feel market more b4 I go for live. I think I'll limit my rescue operation to only one rescue only until I can feel the dancing tempo I might add more.
The sooner you move to live trading the better. I do not believe that the mindset would develop when real money is not on the table...real money transforms the whole trading experience.

Quote
I've read Fti chart b4(not that clear understanding) but I'm still doing my revision when I read up to that page again I might ask you question.
Understanding of the 'famous fti charts is of the upmost importance.

Quote
The charts are very clear pictures

but PA is NEVER clear. I found that whenever I thought I figured out the whole thing...then kapoom...PA broke my back..

My 2 cents.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
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