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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #10,261
  • Sep 7, 2009 10:30am Sep 7, 2009 10:30am
IuSun. Thank you, yes... Gold may be safety port for many people... I am currently short 995 - XAU/USD because of retesting levels around 995-997. With saving at 997... There is my edge and maybe I will take target around 993...
  • #10,262
  • Sep 7, 2009 6:51pm Sep 7, 2009 6:51pm
Quoting fti
One thingy , I haven't figured out is about God's created animal, The dog. (which is god spelled the other way around.) And you will never in your life, find another animal that would love you more and without condition. You figure this out you let me know. Also know your superiority over all of creation, you are that the ONLY in all creation , that can smile and laugh with joy and happiness.
human create "racecar"(which is racecar spelled the other way around), love the move ,the speed, the feel, the rush etc.. god's gift to man ,use wisely !
  • #10,263
  • Sep 8, 2009 12:20am Sep 8, 2009 12:20am
So my gold is out... Good moneymanagement worked for me. So i have small loss and repeat fx abcd for me...
  • #10,264
  • Sep 8, 2009 1:23am Sep 8, 2009 1:23am
Quoting Fana
So my gold is out... Good moneymanagement worked for me. So i have small loss and repeat fx abcd for me...
Hello Fana...abcd ???? seems you have a few more lessons ...old rigid behaviours leave at the door when you enter this room...
  • #10,265
  • Sep 8, 2009 1:40am Sep 8, 2009 1:40am
Don't THINK. FEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEL =d
  • #10,266
  • Sep 8, 2009 2:03am Sep 8, 2009 2:03am
trading from starbux , no net @ home
good trade to all
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #10,267
  • Edited 3:12am Sep 8, 2009 2:57am | Edited 3:12am
Joypips
Yes:-). I was a little joking... I had to ask myself questions and realized... So shared my thinking procession a little. Maybe it was uselless for you...I only tried to analyze what had happened, why i made such decisions... Yes, mistake(not big, but important to accept it in my head..)... good MM, thats all right... So i assume good trading lesson for me.. Believe, that thanks to my abillity to reflect my own feelings and decisions, i am not a begginer more, unless it seems to be like i am
  • #10,268
  • Sep 8, 2009 3:04am Sep 8, 2009 3:04am
And i am not selfish, but have to burn such importances into my head... Regards
  • #10,269
  • Sep 8, 2009 3:19am Sep 8, 2009 3:19am
i was looking at the örderflow-thread mentioned here and was now wondering where stops could be.... i thought 4455 and it look there where some.

now i am looking at a level around 4500 if this breaks $ loses value quick.... do you guys think that this level will be defended by CB'S.
i think this would be wise and part of their job.

i am realy carefull today.
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #10,270
  • Sep 8, 2009 3:24am Sep 8, 2009 3:24am
Why do you think that defending this particular level is either wise or that CBs should consider it as part of their job?
  • #10,271
  • Sep 8, 2009 3:31am Sep 8, 2009 3:31am
Quoting j-pax
i was looking at the örderflow-thread mentioned here and was now wondering where stops could be.... i thought 4455 and it look there where some.

now i am looking at a level around 4500 if this breaks $ loses value quick.... do you guys think that this level will be defended by CB'S.
i think this would be wise and part of their job.

i am realy carefull today.
J-pax

don't try to guess where stops are at when price is in an impulsive wave, price know no boundaries at these times. Look and feel for exhaustion to get out of your position.

Don't try to guess anything, let the charts tell you.
  • #10,272
  • Edited 4:26am Sep 8, 2009 3:32am | Edited 4:26am
1.45 will mostly be psychological number ... it wont break easily ...
at least we know that the undercurrent is usd losing value ...
this would change only when the fed starts to raise rate ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #10,273
  • Sep 8, 2009 4:28am Sep 8, 2009 4:28am
been trying out the dbFX platform on demo.. any idea if its decent?
  • #10,274
  • Sep 8, 2009 5:01am Sep 8, 2009 5:01am
Happy trading day to everyone. Been long all morning on the GBP/$ at 1.6443. Waiting now for a better entry on the E/J. Hope you are all trading well.
  • #10,275
  • Sep 8, 2009 5:27am Sep 8, 2009 5:27am
Quoting ukmanthailan
Why do you think that defending this particular level is either wise or that CBs should consider it as part of their job?
this because gold broke 1000 and i worry about a weaker dollar more .... iam thinking about getting my money out of the dollar account and opening a euro account. if i am thinking this there a probably more people who do.

how i understand it: it''s a cb's task to keep some peace in markets. not defend this particular level, but if a tier1 bank (their eyes and ears) report that a huge amount of ordrs are there they could try to keep price from getting there today. i think they cannot change trend without changing rates but they can pause momentum.

i always am carefull around round numbers. reduce my position when aproaching. i was reading about orderflow and microstructure this weekend. a reason that makes sense to me is because many limit-orders are placed around those numbers.
i was thinking stops but it could very well be sell-limits or market-orders. Yes i should not guess.

thanks for making me think some more...
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #10,276
  • Sep 8, 2009 6:16am Sep 8, 2009 6:16am
OK, I am square on the GBP/$ long position, and am looking at the EUR/$ for any retrace profits at/after the NY open. Still waiting on the E/J.
  • #10,277
  • Sep 8, 2009 6:24am Sep 8, 2009 6:24am
Quoting GEfx
OK, I am square on the GBP/$ long position, and am looking at the EUR/$ for any retrace profits at/after the NY open. Still waiting on the E/J.
GEfx,

Nice trade, short scalping the action here at the top for a few.

gl

btw for all watching, so there's no confusion, this is not part of a dance, just trusted setups from past experience, regards
  • #10,278
  • Sep 8, 2009 6:30am Sep 8, 2009 6:30am
Hi ALL uas bears in complete command.
buy usd at you own peril.

regards
  • #10,279
  • Sep 8, 2009 6:34am Sep 8, 2009 6:34am
Quoting auxesis
J-pax

don't try to guess where stops are at when price is in an impulsive wave, price know no boundaries at these times. Look and feel for exhaustion to get out of your position.

Don't try to guess anything, let the charts tell you.
you are right that i was guessing. there is something i am struggeling with. fti said we have to understand market structure to understand what the charts tell us.

the more i study market structure the more i seem to guess because i think i recognise something. it is said: "don't think ... FEEL"

what do you suggest, just try to feel what the charts tell me or try to understand what the charts tell?
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #10,280
  • Sep 8, 2009 6:40am Sep 8, 2009 6:40am
Quoting j-pax
you are right that i was guessing. there is something i am struggeling with. fti said we have to understand market structure to understand what the charts tell us.

the more i study market structure the more i seem to guess because i think i recognise something. it is said: "don't think ... FEEL"

what do you suggest, just feel what the charts tell me or understand what the charts tell?
J-pax,

The conclusion from the orderflow thread came from the very start and is that they needed to be able to see the order books from their broker, LOL.

As we will never be able to see them, ( if you want that go to work for one).

Trade your charts, you know where most punters place their stops. but the big boys will show you with their actions, don't try and guess where they are.

regards,
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