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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #8,341
  • Jul 1, 2009 1:55am Jul 1, 2009 1:55am
Is it possible that dealers would say, push cable down before figs come out, getting people to sell, so they have a long book before it goes up after the figs release, which they probably know about already...or am I in la la land?
  • #8,342
  • Jul 1, 2009 1:56am Jul 1, 2009 1:56am
Quoting imjscn
Which range? 1.4150 to 1.4000 , or this morning's 1.4000 to 1.4050?
Too much thoughts and not enough watching and dancing.
Esp when all the market moving factors are at the figs tonight.

yesterday was yesterday, today's today.
can't trade the sentiments of the past.

regards
  • #8,343
  • Jul 1, 2009 2:06am Jul 1, 2009 2:06am
hmm, when there was a leg, I got used to attempt a trend continue thinking. But this type of thoughts start changing recently. I'm on the way... some withdraw symptom sometimes.

What NOW, Market will show us how
  • #8,344
  • Edited 2:32am Jul 1, 2009 2:14am | Edited 2:32am
Quoting imjscn
hmm, when there was a leg, I got used to attempt a trend continue thinking. But this type of thoughts start changing recently. I'm on the way... some withdraw symptom sometimes.

What NOW, Market will show us how
you always gotta follow her lead and tempo.
The boys are trying to buy bachk usd cheap esp when the asia attack failed, now they can squeeze some usd out of the eager beavers. The positopns in cash and term , they don't care, when its ranging like this.

There's been market talk of bad recovery, with escalating equities, so can even squeeze, better. but the panic usd buying yest already shows you what the undercurrent is like, all the clues are there. What ever the figs released later the undercurrent still plays.
For you you are no economist, neither are you long sword. so whats with the expectations. just follow her cautiously, with the most prudent MM you can cough out with. Who knows how its gonna pan out, best you can be is prepared and nimble, my friend.

You wanna play what must happen, then the casinos the place.


regards

Think !, If you were a dealer, the big bang's coming , you have little usd left after yest.(if you were egor , you probably be deficit usd ) Whats the worst that can happen, if you shore up you usd?
the market doesn't allow you to off load, there's still the money changing lump, that'll deal you at board rates to buy their ice cream, coke and poopers.

Moreover look at the daily charts esp cable. whats the bias?
  • #8,345
  • Jul 1, 2009 2:35am Jul 1, 2009 2:35am
Quoting fti
Moreover look at the daily charts esp cable. whats the bias?
This where I feel so inadequate still. All I can see from the cable daily chart is that it has been ranging between 1.62 and 1.6560 (roughly) for the last month. It kind of looks like it has hit a wall to me though, by the pattern it has been making... i.e if I saw that on a 5m chart I would probably have a short bias (selling GBP) now.
  • #8,346
  • Jul 1, 2009 2:42am Jul 1, 2009 2:42am
Quoting fti
Moreover look at the daily charts esp cable. whats the bias?
FTI, what is your take on this? To me it looks like:
1. indetermination / indecision / volatility that are common before trend changes
2. consolidation before another leg up

The end of the month & quarter as well as the US national day makes me think twice. Frankly, I don't have any bias now.
  • #8,347
  • Edited 2:54am Jul 1, 2009 2:42am | Edited 2:54am
Quote
Moreover look at the daily charts esp cable. whats the bias?

boss im not well learned on dealer activities.
but if i were to build a bias on cable, my expectation on a purely technical front would be biased to buying GBP.

but of course on hindsight the continued rangebound action would force me to be lighter on the buy side.

2c

edit: why are many expecting trend change? fti whats your personal view on this? personally, it has never crossed my mind to be long the usd, well at least not yet, but yests volitility did bring up some questions to me, just that its not enough to shift my focus...yet, maybe im not reactive enough.

hmm i gotta re-study my blotters & trade journal
cheers!
  • #8,348
  • Jul 1, 2009 2:43am Jul 1, 2009 2:43am
Quoting ukmanthailan
This where I feel so inadequate still. All I can see from the cable daily chart is that it has been ranging between 1.62 and 1.6560 (roughly) for the last month. It kind of looks like it has hit a wall to me though, by the pattern it has been making... i.e if I saw that on a 5m chart I would probably have a short bias (selling GBP) now.
Don't trade bias, trade the dance.

ok dinner time for me. enjoy.
  • #8,349
  • Jul 1, 2009 3:55am Jul 1, 2009 3:55am
I just finished making a picture for the great lesson of "Dealer's Market after the Great Drop". If anyone like to keep this lesson in picture, just speak, I'll upload.
  • #8,350
  • Jul 1, 2009 4:25am Jul 1, 2009 4:25am
i yo , boring market ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #8,351
  • Jul 1, 2009 4:31am Jul 1, 2009 4:31am
Quoting imjscn
I just finished making a picture for the great lesson of "Dealer's Market after the Great Drop". If anyone like to keep this lesson in picture, just speak, I'll upload.

Please do.
  • #8,352
  • Jul 1, 2009 4:37am Jul 1, 2009 4:37am
Probably the text is clear if view it in this separate link:
http://lh5.ggpht.com/_YiW8RQGg9nU/Sk...63538%20PM.jpg

Anyway, let's see how's the text if embedded in the forum:

http://lh5.ggpht.com/_YiW8RQGg9nU/Sk...63538%20PM.jpg
  • #8,353
  • Jul 1, 2009 4:52am Jul 1, 2009 4:52am
Quoting fti
[...]

I had been checking on whats happening in the markets lately, getting no answers except lots of BS about risk appetite increase, and half yearly book value defense.......and the sorts, some talking about higher oil prices and stock prices.

The parts about the stock prices firmness tickles me a little.
It is percieved that the usd is doing a balancing act vis a vis stock prices. And if the weakness of the the usd is truly doing that , then it would seem that the equities are rallying without real improvement on the ground and......

thanx for your thoughts, fti.
  • #8,354
  • Jul 1, 2009 4:55am Jul 1, 2009 4:55am
http://www.cftc.gov/newsroom/enforce...pr5670-09.html
  • #8,355
  • Jul 1, 2009 4:57am Jul 1, 2009 4:57am
Market is very slow now so thought I would check in here. I am not sure what the discussion is about or if there is a question on the table that is being reviewed. Is the question what is going on, or what has happended? fti, how was dinner? It was a better use of your time than watching this market develop - LOL.
  • #8,356
  • Jul 1, 2009 5:01am Jul 1, 2009 5:01am
Quoting GEfx
Market is very slow now so thought I would check in here. I am not sure what the discussion is about or if there is a question on the table that is being reviewed. Is the question what is going on, or what has happended? fti, how was dinner? It was a better use of your time than watching this market develop - LOL.
yeah, gotta watch the NFP, still gotta some usd /yen hedge gone delta +.
Nothing speculative, unless they force my hand.


regards
  • #8,357
  • Jul 1, 2009 5:17am Jul 1, 2009 5:17am
Phew - bad figs (-473000 vs -400000 expected)
Let'S dance ;-)
  • #8,358
  • Jul 1, 2009 5:29am Jul 1, 2009 5:29am
Attacking USDJPY short now.
Let's see how it unfolds ....

edit: Got some foreign capital now.
All troops at home agian, except scout.
Waiting for new opportunity.
  • #8,359
  • Jul 1, 2009 5:47am Jul 1, 2009 5:47am
Quoting MaMood
Attacking USDJPY short now.
Let's see how it unfolds ....

edit: Got some foreign capital now.
All troops at home agian, except scout.
Waiting for new opportunity.
thats very quick! ur quite the slayer mamood!
  • #8,360
  • Jul 1, 2009 5:53am Jul 1, 2009 5:53am
5 min high volatility without follow through with hourly still in range
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