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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #40,321
  • May 2, 2013 10:19am May 2, 2013 10:19am
Quoting fti
{quote} long cable huh. you should be laughing just take a look at where usdyen is. i still waiting cable crack on it own weight. maybe computer still waiting i square out. ....i. to computer. regards i love watching manipulators blood flow, later i like see how he panics.
With hindsight, it wasn't a bad place to get out. I was just being greedy thinking I could have squeezed a bit more out of it. I made a nice profit and that third wave up looked like a failure to me so I squared out.
  • #40,322
  • May 2, 2013 11:06am May 2, 2013 11:06am
Quoting cuthbert
{quote} yes chief, lots of green pips today. was a good start. kept accumulating foreign cap. then risked that. watched wind in my favour and i loaded more.then more. finally it was big enough to be uncomfortable. kept unloading along the way. and i squared sometime back. these the profits that i accumulate over a couple of weeks. killed the big fish. regards

you like the feel?
big fish?
no wonder i was wondering where the big fishes,
you ate all?

just kidding, big fishes mostly on holidays yet.


regards
  • #40,323
  • May 2, 2013 11:12am May 2, 2013 11:12am
Quoting ukmanthailan
{quote}With hindsight, it wasn't a bad place to get out. I was just being greedy thinking I could have squeezed a bit more out of it. I made a nice profit and that third wave up looked like a failure to me so I squared out.

3rd wave up?
i saw 2nd wave wobble on top.
thought, it going to be long day , might as well rest, with some shorts.
then saw boj hammering the usdyen, euro no moved.
but i wasn't on the ball.
sold some small scouts along way down added to position.

not nimble.
need oil my rusty, otherwise wold had captured more than 40 +pips for good size.
any way is water under bridge now.
i try see if can try 1 more before ny closes.
  • #40,324
  • May 2, 2013 11:14am May 2, 2013 11:14am
attacking 33

so long, even i finished eating lunch at midnight, dinner , sorry
ai ya orientation bad.

ai ya i had fill at 36
not even noticed

now attacking shorts on cable.
seems 40/50 not coming

need carefully get trooops on the ground.
so many scout teams already on.
i broke them up into smaller pieces, easier get overall feel.
  • #40,325
  • Edited 12:46pm May 2, 2013 12:27pm | Edited 12:46pm
Quoting fti
{quote} 3rd wave up? i saw 2nd wave wobble on top. thought, it going to be long day , might as well rest, with some shorts. then saw boj hammering the usdyen, euro no moved. but i wasn't on the ball. sold some small scouts along way down added to position. not nimble. need oil my rusty, otherwise wold had captured more than 40 +pips for good size. any way is water under bridge now. i try see if can try 1 more before ny closes.
This is what I saw - I could be getting it all wrong.. The circle is where I thought the 3rd wave was failing and bailed out. Am I completely mistaken about the number of waves? If you mean the second wave wobble was where it only barely got above the high point of the candle at 09.30 GMT, I kinda ignored that candle's height because it was when the figures were released....maybe that is the wrong approach to take. Or maybe you mean the 09.30 candle was the 2nd wave?

Edit: Please ignore the times along the bottom of the graph, Alpari UK decided to use GMT +2 for some reason - maybe just to make things harder for me and the rest of their customers?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #40,326
  • May 2, 2013 12:50pm May 2, 2013 12:50pm
Quoting ukmanthailan
{quote} This is what I saw - I could be getting it all wrong.. The circle is where I thought the 3rd wave was failing and bailed out. Am I completely mistaken about the number of waves? If you mean the second wave wobble was where it only barely got above the high point of the candle at 09.30 GMT, I kinda ignored that candle's height because it was when the figures were released....maybe that is the wrong approach to take. Or maybe you mean the 09.30 candle was the 2nd wave? Edit: Please ignore the times along the bottom of the graph,...
as long as you see good.

regards
  • #40,327
  • Edited 9:41pm May 2, 2013 12:52pm | Edited 9:41pm
This gotta be a tresury man
I recognise the language.lots treasry terminology.

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damn smart fish

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he not seems to be a tersury man , how come he knows so much terminology? seems he's comedian, used to work in tresury?

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  • #40,328
  • May 2, 2013 1:22pm May 2, 2013 1:22pm
ok markets close ny, seems i only one making prices. bid is yours offer also mine.
Oh thats dealing terminology also.

goodnite, I carry over positions, lucky i not over carry, can get backache

regards
  • #40,329
  • May 2, 2013 4:12pm May 2, 2013 4:12pm
Quoting ukmanthailan
{quote} This is what I saw - I could be getting it all wrong.. The circle is where I thought the 3rd wave was failing and bailed out. Am I completely mistaken about the number of waves? If you mean the second wave wobble was where it only barely got above the high point of the candle at 09.30 GMT, I kinda ignored that candle's height because it was when the figures were released....maybe that is the wrong approach to take. Or maybe you mean the 09.30 candle was the 2nd wave? Edit: Please ignore the times along the bottom of the graph,...
ok ukman,
since i have a little peaceful time now, just want highlight 1 point to you.
when markets in a run mode, we like look for the waves, try guesstimate if the run is a good one.
the run 3 waves you saw on your chart is not considered a good up run.
The reason is because basically it not satisfy a perfect count.
the reason i say this is because you not counting elliot wave counts, so is very general dow count.
on dow count you correct.
but the sexiest wave counts are elliot counts. This only a matter of opinion.( my opinion and many wave analyst)
and based on elliot count your wave 4 which is the retrace of wave 3 ( your 2) over lapped the the top of you impulse wave.
so is difficult expect a strong charging 5th wave(your 3). and after your profitable up run trade, there many signs telling you she topping.
actual 2 very distinct patterns, a plataeu and a triple top pattern. emerged in high volatility. means is topping but very volatile form of topping.
there was 3 instances where market hinted loss upswing momentum.



regards
  • #40,330
  • May 2, 2013 4:20pm May 2, 2013 4:20pm
hi mija, you enrolled for the uni competition?
may like give you some tips for competition mode trading.
need to know what the prize structure.
is there prize 1st only or 1,2, 3rd?
  • #40,331
  • Edited 4:38pm May 2, 2013 4:28pm | Edited 4:38pm
Yeah I did, I was 2nd place in 2011 with 80% return, 1st had 81% haha, in 2012 I went full in busted account in 2 days lol The winner gets the internship for their financial firm, which is local brokorage firm, and unfortunately winning this competition is easiest ticket to get any job in financial institution in my country for me.

Otherwise today my country issued new dollar bonds in amount of 3.5 billion.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/500d0...44feabdc0.html

I was telling that to my friends and also when they asked me where is country going to get money to pay interests and return principal, I said from you who are working regulary and paying taxes lol I am applying now for internship, in international banks, but seems impossible to get in and just considering trades on EUR/CHF

all best guys,

FTI. only 1st place counts. 2nd and 3rd are useless prizes.
  • #40,332
  • Edited 4:46pm May 2, 2013 4:32pm | Edited 4:46pm
Quoting mijamoto
Yeah I did, I was 2nd place in 2011 with 80% return, 1st had 81% haha, in 2012 I went full in busted account in 2 days lol The winner gets the internship for their financial firm, which is local brokorage firm, and unfortunately winning this competition is easiest ticket to get any job in financial institution in my country for me. Otherwise today my country issued new dollar bonds in amount of 3.5 billion. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/500d0...44feabdc0.html I was telling that to my friends and also when they...
what i am going show you you promise never use for your own $$$ trading or others, because is the most dangerous trading model in world.
only do this in competitions. is that ok? if you use in real life, you may eaily make a fortune, otherwise you bankrupt. my primary concern is that this creeps into your trading unnoticed, then can be very dangerous.

I thought about it and i felt if i show you, then if you use this when desperate then i carry the irresposibility teach you.
but like you said if is a stepping stone for you get job then may be just what you may need.




regards
  • #40,333
  • May 2, 2013 4:41pm May 2, 2013 4:41pm
I promise. I dont like taking risks Doesn't feel for my caracther, even though I do have sometimes self destruction thoughts and take even stupid risks. Money greed is completely out of my mind, I am quite poor now but I have 24/7 hours to do in life what I want. I see trading as a game.

FTI i wrote to them, 3rd year in a row what they are doing is wrong, because they hire the luckiest kamikaze out of 200, and I don't know how much will such guys succeed long term. But it seems like, companies in my country support and promote such young talanted hazarders, that is why my country is in all newspapers, for being a next candidate for EU bailout. Slovenians in generaly are very greedy, lazy, and want to make lots of money very fast, and do nothing else for the rest of the life. That is why we are in deep troubles.
  • #40,334
  • May 2, 2013 4:48pm May 2, 2013 4:48pm
Quoting mijamoto
I promise. I dont like taking risks Doesn't feel for my caracther, even though I do have sometimes self destruction thoughts and take even stupid risks. Money greed is completely out of my mind, I am quite poor now but I have 24/7 hours to do in life what I want. I see trading as a game.
ok i take no responsibility for teaching you this, you understand.
if agree go on my facebook chat.

regards
  • #40,335
  • May 2, 2013 5:53pm May 2, 2013 5:53pm
i turned long cable. looking for tops
looks higher
question is where.

do not chase too hard
NFP tonight
  • #40,336
  • May 2, 2013 7:44pm May 2, 2013 7:44pm
squared
Far east no money to trade today.
very empty, no business.
  • #40,337
  • May 2, 2013 8:56pm May 2, 2013 8:56pm
Quoting fti
squared Far east no money to trade today. very empty, no business.
FTI ! Thought you would like it today!

There comes a time in your life, when you walk away from all the drama and people who create it.
You surround yourself with people who make you laugh.
Forget the bad, and focus on the good.
Love the people who treat you right, pray for the ones who don't.
Life is too short to be anything but happy.
Falling down is a part of life, getting back up is living.
  • #40,338
  • May 2, 2013 9:11pm May 2, 2013 9:11pm
Quoting mijamoto
I promise. I dont like taking risks Doesn't feel for my caracther, even though I do have sometimes self destruction thoughts and take even stupid risks. Money greed is completely out of my mind, I am quite poor now but I have 24/7 hours to do in life what I want. I see trading as a game. FTI i wrote to them, 3rd year in a row what they are doing is wrong, because they hire the luckiest kamikaze out of 200, and I don't know how much will such guys succeed long term. But it seems like, companies in my country support and promote such young talanted...
mija,
i noticed you added to post.

Let me tell you my friend, don't even try tell them anything.
No one listens.
ultimately in final analysis, they will only be judgemental on you.
peeps mostly have their own perspectives in life.
have tendency agree or disagrees with you.
because most people very judgemental and what they hear of what you saying normally isn't the same.
normally is because when you are telling them stuff you have a perspective.
seldom will peeps be listening carefully and try see that. Instead they will box you into their perspective and draw conclusions based on that.

Is normal human tendency, cannot be helped.
What is most effective is to make it to the top and then you speak, then anything that comes from their top they no choice, but to listen.
Otherwise seldom will peeps ever listen. But again if they will follow is another thingy, it depends.

I told 786 here, just the other day.
External stuff , we no control of, Only our internal stuff we can control.
So unless you proof to them that you superior , peeps will never listen.
This the life my friend. So go try win the competition and be the best you can be.
Same with your red belt, i put another red belt with you , you chaps will have to f ight it out.
Not every red will agree with another red. Correct?
So just get yourself into shape, young man, and make something of it.

GoodLuck on the competition.
regards
  • #40,339
  • May 2, 2013 9:25pm May 2, 2013 9:25pm
Quoting Jaro
{quote} FTI ! Thought you would like it today! There comes a time in your life, when you walk away from all the drama and people who create it. You surround yourself with people who make you laugh. Forget the bad, and focus on the good. Love the people who treat you right, pray for the ones who don't. Life is too short to be anything but happy. Falling down is a part of life, getting back up is living.
Jaro

yes, is very true.
hey , lots friends here, and i can still work on the work i done all my life.
Is already a blessing.

I think sometimes, if i not do this and keep myself going .
then what would i be doing. Sit and do nothing?
then, that would not be a happy me.
I guess in many ways i am still very happy, inspite of, but maybe these days a little cranky, huh.

Oh did you pen this yourself? is very comforting. wise.

When i said, far east ......., i meant today is holiday mode, not much money moving markets,so not much business in the markets. Very thin and not moving.

Also like remind tonight have NFP, so may have some action then, be prepared.
Monday would be even worst, activities probably pick up on tuesday.


regards
  • #40,340
  • May 2, 2013 9:35pm May 2, 2013 9:35pm
Quoting fti
BOJ, clear , goal directed. ok manipulators eat steel.

got today time to see whats going on here....men people make people work ;D.....hows everyone here...


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