Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 1048 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #20,941
  • Dec 30, 2010 11:47am Dec 30, 2010 11:47am
Quoting nasir.khan
ohhhh boy made some bad habits on demo and now its taking forever to get rid of them.
so, "spend three days in hell", it is instructive ...
  • #20,942
  • Edited 2:40pm Dec 30, 2010 11:54am | Edited 2:40pm
Quoting fullperson
yes-no bad habits from now on! (then do you guys eat in front of screen?!). The more habits I begin with,m the more I fight myself
Watch your habits alone ... that will not benefit you in business.
I just wanted to say:attention to your mindset = never ... this is "ONLY" a demo!
  • #20,943
  • Edited 2:42pm Dec 30, 2010 11:58am | Edited 2:42pm
Quoting nasir.khan
eating in front of screens is not a bad thing though......

right guys?
.
Soup in the keyboard is OK? ...

no focus ... and thinking about food?
Attached Image
  • #20,944
  • Dec 30, 2010 11:59am Dec 30, 2010 11:59am
Quoting fullperson
ah, in retrospect it is not the pulse I have wrong. It is the directional bias (which should come from the larger volatility bands in the 3k right?). To get this straight, my 5min pulse for volatility is used for choosing skew size/possible entry /exit points whereas daily 3K is used for directional bias. Yes?

I'm currently using 3k "spinoff" on 5min to get pulse of how the three pairs dance together (obviously still on demo, so nobody freak out. I know 3K supposed to be for daily, but I use it for 5min to get feel for overall dance the pairs...
Hi FP,

hmmh - not sure what I should answer exactly, but I have the feeling that you are using the opportunities, that may arise out of the usage of 3Kgds, in a too rigid and predictive way.

I'm not sure if it was mentioned by fti, that the 3kgds are for usage with daily TF. At least I'm using them with M5 TF too with good success. From my experience, when you are trading from the M5 chart mainly, you should not wait for several bars till the 3 Kgds may resync again. From my experience that is a matter of seconds or a few minutes only. If they come not into sync again in that time forget about the additional info, the Kgds may give to you for the moment and focus on PA of the single pair your are trading with.

Regarding rescues done via additional pairs or hedging you exposure with another pair:
From my very simple understanding "shifting your rescue into another pair" just means, that if vola in your original pair is fading and you detect some good opportunities in another kingdom, just use this situation to your advantage and earn the pips there. Finally it does not count in any way, which lady was that generous to you ;-)

From time to time you may be very strong exposed to the market in one pair, and for some reasons you do not want to reduce your exposure. In such situatons I'm used to hedge my exposure by another pair. For example, when you are USD bull take a position on a different pair as a USD Bear. That pair should have a favorable constant correlation to your pair for some time/bars/hours. This approach also gives you the opportunity to scale out the wrong direction then, when dust has settled and you have a clear idea, where she wants to go with you ...

Hope this helps.
And of course, I appreciate any correction, when I'm wrong or offtopic a little ;-)

CU,
MaMood
  • #20,945
  • Dec 30, 2010 12:04pm Dec 30, 2010 12:04pm
Hey Vick,

how is weather around Wall Street?
Still that much snow?

Kind regards,
Niels
  • #20,946
  • Dec 30, 2010 12:10pm Dec 30, 2010 12:10pm
Quoting MaMood
Hey Vick,

how is weather around Wall Street?
Still that much snow?

Kind regards,
Niels
... a lot of snow about
  • #20,947
  • Dec 30, 2010 12:11pm Dec 30, 2010 12:11pm
Quoting MaMood
Hey Vick,

how is weather around Wall Street?
Still that much snow?

Kind regards,
Niels
Yea 20 inch and freaking NYC street cleaning suck....u think third world is worst...come here on wall street...all slushy....

BTW i found this story ...somehow Hcong and Chief came to my head.....

One day a small boy was trying to lift a heavy stone, but he couldn't budge it. His father, passing by, stopped to watch his son's efforts. Finally he said to his son: "Are you using all your strength?"

Exasperated, the boy cried, "Yes, I am."

"No, you're not," said the father calmly. "You haven't asked me to help you."


Peace

V
  • #20,948
  • Dec 30, 2010 12:12pm Dec 30, 2010 12:12pm
A young man presented himself to the local expert on gems and said he wanted to become a gemologist. The expert brushed him off because he feared that the youth would not have the patience to learn. The young man pleaded for a chance. Finally the expert consented and told the youth, "Be here tomorrow."

The next morning the expert put a jade stone in the boy's hand and told him to hold it. The expert then went about his work, cutting, weighing, and setting gems. The boy sat quietly and waited.

The following moring the expert again placed the jade stone in the youth's hand and told him to hold it. On the third, fourth, and fifth day the expert repeated the exercise and the instructions.

On the sixth day the youth held the jade stone, but could no longer stand the silence. "Master," he asked, "when am I going to learn something?"

"You'll learn," the expert replied and went about his bussiness.

Several more days went by and the youth's frustation mounted. One morning as the expert approached and beckoned for him to hold out his hand, he was about to blurt out that he could go on no longer. But as the master placed the stone in the youth's hand, the young man exclaimed with-out looking at his hand, "This is not the same jade stone!"

"You have begun to learn," said the master.
  • #20,949
  • Dec 30, 2010 12:17pm Dec 30, 2010 12:17pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
A young man presented himself to the local expert on gems and said he wanted to become a gemologist. The expert brushed him off because he feared that the youth would not have the patience to learn. The young man pleaded for a chance. Finally the expert consented and told the youth, "Be here tomorrow."

The next morning the expert put a jade stone in the boy's hand and told him to hold it. The expert then went about his work, cutting, weighing, and setting gems. The boy sat quietly and waited.

The following moring the expert again placed the...

Great!
  • #20,950
  • Dec 30, 2010 12:23pm Dec 30, 2010 12:23pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
A young man presented himself to the local expert on gems and said he wanted to become a gemologist. The expert brushed him off because he feared that the youth would not have the patience to learn. The young man pleaded for a chance. Finally the expert consented and told the youth, "Be here tomorrow."

The next morning the expert put a jade stone in the boy's hand and told him to hold it. The expert then went about his work, cutting, weighing, and setting gems. The boy sat quietly and waited.

The following moring the expert again placed the...
nice story ...
  • #20,951
  • Dec 30, 2010 12:32pm Dec 30, 2010 12:32pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
Yea 20 inch and freaking NYC street cleaning suck....u think third world is worst...come here on wall street...all slushy....

BTW i found this story ...somehow Hcong and Chief came to my head.....

One day a small boy was trying to lift a heavy stone, but he couldn't budge it. His father, passing by, stopped to watch his son's efforts. Finally he said to his son: "Are you using all your strength?"

Exasperated, the boy cried, "Yes, I am."

"No, you're not," said the father calmly. "You haven't asked me to help you."


Peace

V
20 inch, It is probably a "funny" in NY ...
  • #20,952
  • Dec 30, 2010 1:11pm Dec 30, 2010 1:11pm
Quoting Gro
20 inch, It is probably a "funny" in NY ...
Yea slashy....it is not normal for NYC to see this much snow in a day...not maintained for this weather...
  • #20,953
  • Edited 1:45pm Dec 30, 2010 1:17pm | Edited 1:45pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
Yea slashy....it is not normal for NYC to see this much snow in a day...not maintained for this weather...
at least hope that the weather will not endanger the good mood on New Year's
  • #20,954
  • Dec 30, 2010 3:37pm Dec 30, 2010 3:37pm
Quoting Gro
at least hope that the weather will not endanger the good mood on New Year's
never been to the ball drop....i am going to a single party thats the plan...

what are plan of urs and fellow TAF...

V
  • #20,955
  • Dec 30, 2010 4:01pm Dec 30, 2010 4:01pm
"
A brick building stacked up one way the bricks make a cathedral, another way they become a gas station."

regards
  • #20,956
  • Dec 30, 2010 6:50pm Dec 30, 2010 6:50pm
yes, the blocks are all there..its the method by which you build it. Fortunately we have some very generous architects

Gro, remember the picture you posted of the volatility band? I was wondering what the numbers and arrows are for?

Anyways I just set up my vol band screen though **How would use this for finding directional bias?**
-is it like using a bollinger band, except w/ prices as the outer bands?
Thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: romance3.gif Size: 211 KB
  • #20,957
  • Dec 30, 2010 7:08pm Dec 30, 2010 7:08pm
Guys i wont be logged in till your new year...


So i wish a happy prosperous new year to everyone.....may all the happyness come to you and your family.....


V
  • #20,958
  • Dec 30, 2010 7:13pm Dec 30, 2010 7:13pm
Hey FP

Not as senior as some of the TAF members but i would like to offer my My 2 EUR worth of advice...

As per Fti one brick at a time and go Back to Basic u should just focus on 1 pair to fine-tune your MM/MO within your own risk capabilities. The impt thing during these phrase is to develop your MINDSET as Fti would put it to train your mind to be in binary mode either take the trade position or not...

When u can dance well with one then u start add another brick and another until you have the desire structure u r looking for...

Remind me of the classic scene in Karate Kids "Wax In, Wax Out"

Inserted Video


Happy New Year to all TAF members.

May the coming year brings your pockets be filled be plenty of PiPs and for those smokers may your lungs be filled with plenty of fresh oxygen

Be Merry & Happy

Philip
"Thinking Heart & Feeling Brain"
  • #20,959
  • Edited 8:23pm Dec 30, 2010 7:51pm | Edited 8:23pm
I have a question. In my search to understand the market and the forces controlling it. I pounced upon a very interesting fact.

Can someone shed some light on the ECB and FED. Who owns them?
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.p...xt=va&aid=8518

Role of US Treasury? Why does it Issue bonds to the Feds?
Why does the Fed take over AIG when Tresury could do a similar take over of Fannie & Freddie?
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.p...t=va&aid=10489

Im also reccomeneding a book which is an interesting read for those who want to read more about the history of depression and the role feds (a privately owned bank) played in it
Lords of Finance - http://www.amazon.com/Lords-Finance-...3767343&sr=1-2

while the writer states that the depression was a series of mistakes made by then 4 men who headed their country's central banks then. I am beginning to doubt that these actions were, and that the depression was in thorough fact an ingenious engineering.

my apologies, im still green in this field and am looking to receive some insight with regards to this. pls pardon my ignorance & mistakes.
  • #20,960
  • Dec 30, 2010 8:01pm Dec 30, 2010 8:01pm
Thanks for the advice sylar. Yes, I will work on EU only. However I have noticed that being able to see all three pairs helps a bit.

I just had a light-bulb moment. I should only be using the UJ & GU to find pulse of EU when I spot "capital flow" (aka a relationship in movements between the three). When there is no "flow" then I should NOT be using UJ or GU to judge EU because they are dancing to DIFFERENT pulses. ACK! I've been looking at the "additional info from 3k" as part of the MO, when instead the pulse should be the MO. The additional info MaMood mentioned is just a side note like he said.

Also, when fti talks about the use of the daily TF as the directional bias, he means in the context of the 3K right (volatility bands) right?
Or does he mean simply the daily trend? (at first I thought fti meant use the daily tf just as it is, by using higher high/ lower lows for bias). But then I saw another post by fti that said he used the daily 3K as the directional bias. So which is it?
46 traders viewing now