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Currency Scan

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  • Should I add four hour analysis to the scan
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  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Dec 14, 2018 2:00pm Jan 27, 2016 11:25am | Edited Dec 14, 2018 2:00pm
UPDATES COMING SOON...

just realized I need to rewrite this section to reflect the changes in the scan and my trading status. Will get on it.
When you hit 50, coffee becomes part of a proper modeling pipeline.
  • #2
  • Jan 27, 2016 11:37am Jan 27, 2016 11:37am
Next steps are to integrate the Indexes (Indicies, whatever the multiple of Index is... I think you can use both, Indexes seems clumsy). They've been on the back-burner for a while, going to try and get that coded up before the FOMC. I'd like to see what the larger reaction is there and maybe get some exposure this afternoon. On a completely different note I want to thank the people who have followed me in the last week or so, without that this thread couldn't have happened and I really appreciate your interest in the work and the analysis. - JP
When you hit 50, coffee becomes part of a proper modeling pipeline.
  • #3
  • Jan 27, 2016 12:18pm Jan 27, 2016 12:18pm
Quoting TheFxAnalyst
I'm starting to get requests for access to the C/S, I thought maybe a thread dedicated to it might be useful as it does cover a lot of ground and isn't really specific to a single pair. Without further rambling... {image}
Yep..in fact i was about to ask you to start a thread for your system which looks promising..
When Scalpers win, I lose and Vice varsa...
  • #4
  • Jan 27, 2016 12:23pm Jan 27, 2016 12:23pm
Quoting Goldflake
{quote} Yep..in fact i was about to ask you to start a thread for your system which looks promising..
Couldn't have done it without you, appreciate the interest. Hopefully now I can be a little more thorough with the outlook and can go into more detail on how I use the scan in my own trading (as it basically acts as a trigger for two different models).
When you hit 50, coffee becomes part of a proper modeling pipeline.
  • #5
  • Jan 27, 2016 1:11pm Jan 27, 2016 1:11pm
Break out your Philips Curve... The Fed said they are watching the strength of the dollar but it seems they are more interested in the current inflation level and the rate of employment.
When you hit 50, coffee becomes part of a proper modeling pipeline.
  • #6
  • Jan 27, 2016 1:19pm Jan 27, 2016 1:19pm
Current market action after the announcement: EUR/USD up into today's previous high but not sticking. Minor change in the overall price action as traders try to weigh the statement.
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When you hit 50, coffee becomes part of a proper modeling pipeline.
  • #7
  • Jan 27, 2016 2:03pm Jan 27, 2016 2:03pm
On the whole the US based pairs just aren't committing to anything yet. Unless this is a lag by portfolios to avoid thin markets, and I don't think that's it, given the neutral tone of the statement, I'd guess we've seen all there is to this. I'd watch for some mild technical reversion from pairs that are on the outliers of their ranges barring fundamental data that supports a pop here or there.
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When you hit 50, coffee becomes part of a proper modeling pipeline.
  • #8
  • Jan 27, 2016 6:37pm Jan 27, 2016 6:37pm
Getting ready for the Australian Lunch-break...

Momentum Update: AUD/USD, EUR/AUD, GBP/CHF, NZD/CHF, NZD/JPY, NZD/USD all showing pretty good momentum out of pretty neutral territory, so they have some room to run. It would be more meaningful if we were just seeing the breaks and the momentum hadn't developed yet, and to be honest some of these conditions have persisted throughout the US session and may be getting a little stale.

The price action for most of these are "in-trend" with some of those getting a little deep on the short-term time-frames, but that doesn't mean they can't run further.
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When you hit 50, coffee becomes part of a proper modeling pipeline.
  • #9
  • Jan 27, 2016 10:13pm Jan 27, 2016 10:13pm
After an hour of messing around with the Trade Explorer, to no avail, I finally contacted Gain and was told they don't support Investor Passwords. Kind of a bummer. I've got an old FXCM account I could throw a few bucks in but the last time I ran that account I had a hell of a time with the history. They would just arbitrarily truncate it and your metrics would be all wonky. Wouldn't mind running one just don't want to go through a ton of hoops just to not have it work. Open to suggestions (different broker??? just seems like a lot of work for just the T/E)
When you hit 50, coffee becomes part of a proper modeling pipeline.
  • #10
  • Jan 27, 2016 10:34pm Jan 27, 2016 10:34pm
Watchlist Update:

Momentum has all but died off. Getting a longer term sell in the daily studies of the EUR/CHF. Almost triggering in the weekly as well. If it does I might take a little exposure on this and see if I can get a short term ride back down. The bullish trend has been pretty persistent, so if I do take it, it will be a pretty small position.
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When you hit 50, coffee becomes part of a proper modeling pipeline.
  • #11
  • Jan 28, 2016 7:33am Jan 28, 2016 7:33am
Here's a snapshot of what's happening right now in the broader market. Once we get Durable Goods out of the way I'll be looking at things a little harder.
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When you hit 50, coffee becomes part of a proper modeling pipeline.
  • #12
  • Jan 28, 2016 7:41am Jan 28, 2016 7:41am
Quoting TheFxAnalyst
After an hour of messing around with the Trade Explorer, to no avail, I finally contacted Gain and was told they don't support Investor Passwords. Kind of a bummer. I've got an old FXCM account I could throw a few bucks in but the last time I ran that account I had a hell of a time with the history. They would just arbitrarily truncate it and your metrics would be all wonky. Wouldn't mind running one just don't want to go through a ton of hoops just to not have it work. Open to suggestions (different broker??? just seems like a lot of work for just...
i guess you can open a sub account with your fxcm and start fresh.
As Above, So Below
  • #13
  • Jan 28, 2016 8:00am Jan 28, 2016 8:00am
Quoting tashkent
{quote} i guess you can open a sub account with your fxcm and start fresh.
Just logged into my FXCM account... all of my trade history is gone. I guess we have to download their other trading app and get it through there. Not cool. I think I'll find another broker just for this, throw a grand in it and just trade the currency scan on it as a stand alone technical model, no fundies or M/L stuff, see how it does. Would be interesting to see how it plays out over two or three years.
When you hit 50, coffee becomes part of a proper modeling pipeline.
  • #14
  • Jan 28, 2016 11:08am Jan 28, 2016 11:08am
EUR/CHF Update: The pair is signaling short on the daily studies and very close to doing the same on the weekly. Once it hits those levels, I'm going to take a more serious look at it, see where the fundamentals are and if there is a case to get short. It’s worth noting if it does signal a weekly short this will be the first time before the SNB that we’ve had that signal in place and it could very well mark a return to a broader range that we begin to cycle through. There is still a lot of unknown’s with this pair (will the SNB intervene again etc…)

Technically speaking the current momentum has the pair breaking out of the upper trend-channel. That doesn’t typically persist very long when the marcro technical are at these levels. I would expect the pair so settle back in in the next couple of hours, consolidate a little bit, maybe even give up a little of its gains. I’m not trading that so it’s worth less than the digital paper it’s printed on.
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When you hit 50, coffee becomes part of a proper modeling pipeline.
  • #15
  • Jan 28, 2016 11:44am Jan 28, 2016 11:44am
If anyone has any experience using Oanda and the FF Trade Explorer hit me with a PM or shout. Let me know if you had any problems, how well it tracked etc. I think that may be my only option at this point. Thanks!
When you hit 50, coffee becomes part of a proper modeling pipeline.
  • #16
  • Jan 28, 2016 11:50am Jan 28, 2016 11:50am
Quoting TheFxAnalyst
If anyone has any experience using Oanda and the FF Trade Explorer hit me with a PM or shout. Let me know if you had any problems, how well it tracked etc. I think that may be my only option at this point. Thanks!
no problems at all with oanda and TE (not the best spreads, with alright)
As Above, So Below
  • #17
  • Jan 28, 2016 12:02pm Jan 28, 2016 12:02pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} no problems at all with oanda and TE (not the best spreads, with alright)
Appreciate that... Yeah I saw those spreads and my guts knotted up just a little bit.
When you hit 50, coffee becomes part of a proper modeling pipeline.
  • #18
  • Jan 28, 2016 12:14pm Jan 28, 2016 12:14pm
Food for thought...

Quote
Bandwagon effects exist because of availability, anchoring, representativeness, increasing confidence, and credit/blame issues. These can continue unabated until current events (as interpreted by market participants) accumulate against the trend. If the discrepancy between the level to which a currency price has risen due to bandwagons and the interpretation of events is large enough then agents' confidence can be shattered and panic and collapse can result.

Harvey, John T. Currencies, Capital Flows and Crises: A Post Keynesian Analysis of Exchange Rate Determination. 2007/2008

Currently looking for a little panic...
When you hit 50, coffee becomes part of a proper modeling pipeline.
  • #19
  • Jan 28, 2016 12:40pm Jan 28, 2016 12:40pm
EUR/USD so close to hitting that upper channel... And we're seeing another cyclical top emerge (light blue line on the top of the chart), which technically is bearish for the pair. I'd rather not short this into such strong bullish momentum, but I would like to take a small trade here and see if I can get a reversal. Going to keep an eye on it as we head into the Australian session.
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When you hit 50, coffee becomes part of a proper modeling pipeline.
  • #20
  • Jan 28, 2016 1:41pm Jan 28, 2016 1:41pm
I was originally going to restrict access to this just keep tabs on the conversation and the flow of information - keep the thread focused. But I realize that also stifles good input/questions from people who are watching. I want the scan to be as useful as possible if I'm going to put it out here, so no more restriction.
When you hit 50, coffee becomes part of a proper modeling pipeline.
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