[quote=Aussi;8886853]{quote} sorry mate didnt see this untill now am ok trading well how you doing Good thanks Aussi, keeping my head down and trying to keep out of trouble.
Another Day, Another Chair, Another Day in the Office 198 replies
another day another challenge. indicatorCounted() 6 replies
Is FX just another bogus "get-rich-quick" scam ?? 1 reply
blew out another account...Just venting... 55 replies
Okay, did a another insurance company buy another couple hundred million EUR?? 23 replies
Disliked{quote} Yeah. Fundamentals... Generally accepted consensus oil rose from $28 to $40 plus due to expected production freeze. Freeze failure =oil rises again. Kuwait strikes deemed partially responsible for rise in oil price....Kuwait strikes end =oil hits new high. Lots of negatives against Australia's economy (too many to list here and all previously canvassed anyhow)= AUD rises. Oil production freeze talks break down=Commodity currencies gap down, Kuwait strike= commodity currencies and oil rise to new short term peaks. = Fundamental analysts Burned....Ignored
Disliked{quote} There is 2 things i have learned. Two ways of MM. Very small position sizes or lager sizes with tight stops.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Thanks Paul. I knew those rules when I broke them. And i knew the rule to stick to them no matter how tempting a trade might look. Spur of the moment decision making caused me to think I could see a reversal coming with the oil summit falling in a heap. I also have a rule about spur of the moment decisions. Going back to review those rules.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Extremely high correlation currently, although they can and do break down. I agree with your appraisal of the Aus economic situation. This up move probably had more to do with speculative plays on commodities / interest rates than future prospects of the nation (or china). Regarding China, their recent lending figures are just crazy and I suspect that might be in part supporting our exports both in terms of volume and price. Once the default cycle begins, I would expect exports (or their imports) to slow pretty dramatically and...Ignored
Disliked{quote} I think we all get over confident at times including myself when I break my own rules im surely to loose. Next week CPI Data will be interesting. To date CPI has increased .9% and this is mostly go to do with an increase in alcohol and smokes and would be a lot less otherwise. A 3% y/y target is forecast but looks like it will fall short. Reading between the lines on Stevens speech I think further rate cuts are out even if inflation don't meet expectations. (or he may want traders to think there will be no more rate cuts) but believe he...Ignored
Disliked{quote} IF further RBA interest rates were off the table it would be A/U bullish. I'm not convinced there won't be any more. My read on RBA statement was that there is a line toward the end that means he's keeping the option for cuts on the table. I do agree that RBA preference is for FED to lower the exchange rate because RBA don't have enough bullets on their own to work against FED.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Thats why it has been bullish. Im sure the institutional traders out there know information way before the retail trader. Please read the speech Quote " What is undeniable, though, is that "monetary policy alone hasn't been, and isn't, able to generate sustained growth to the extent people desire". Maybe this is simply the inevitable outcome after a period of excessive optimism and over‑leverage an essentially cyclical explanation, where the cycle is a low‑frequency, financial one. Or maybe it is something "more deep-seated and...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Thats why it has been bullish. Im sure the institutional traders out there know information way before the retail trader. Please read the speech Quote " What is undeniable, though, is that "monetary policy alone hasn't been, and isn't, able to generate sustained growth to the extent people desire". Maybe this is simply the inevitable outcome after a period of excessive optimism and over‑leverage an essentially cyclical explanation, where the cycle is a low‑frequency, financial one. Or maybe it is something "more deep-seated and...Ignored
Disliked{quote} All good points but I think it's been more the FED lowering expectations of US rate rise that have led to a drop in USD strength leading to A/U bullishness. Extract I'm thinking of is a little more subtle "Members noted that an appreciating exchange rate could complicate progress in activity rebalancing towards the non-mining sectors of the economy." from minutes of last RBA meeting. http://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-polic...016-04-05.html I interpret that to mean 'we want a lower exchange rate and if needed we will do...Ignored
Disliked{quote} All good points but I think it's been more the FED lowering expectations of US rate rise that have led to a drop in USD strength leading to A/U bullishness. Extract I'm thinking of is a little more subtle "Members noted that an appreciating exchange rate could complicate progress in activity rebalancing towards the non-mining sectors of the economy." from minutes of last RBA meeting. http://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-polic...016-04-05.html I interpret that to mean 'we want a lower exchange rate and if needed we will do...Ignored
Disliked{quote} If they are afraid of overheating the property market, they shouldn't let banks give CHEAP credit in residential mortgages. They should have put some regulations on the subject. The should have CHEAP lending ONLY on business loans. That's all to it. Residential mortgage - 8%, business loan - 4% as an example. But they are doing the opposite and then get surprised when a median house price in Sydney is over a million.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Not my area of expertise so genuine question, do RBA have the power to regulate the banks in that way?Ignored
DislikedYes true oil does influence the AUD To PA I Im not trying to be negative and if you remember I did point out how impressed I am with your PA skills. Take note of the weekly chart you will see why its been rejected. Priced bounced off weekly trend line and also 100 ma {image}{image}Ignored
Disliked{quote} I have used the term THEY in a broader sense. I have meant regulators. It can be RBA, APRA, Federal authorities etc.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Good charts Paul. Keep them coming. On a side note, while I agree the fundamentals aren't great for Australia, I don't trade fundamentals. Just my personal experience that the market follows technicals more often than fundamentals. And one of my top 3 quotes "The market can remain irrational far longer than you can remain solvent. " we all know the Aussie shouldn't have risen 1,000 pips since mid-January, but by following price action and ignoring fundamentals one could be long and making pips during this irrational time. Just my humble...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Right on cue PA time for the irrational again...Oil and the AUD rising in sync againIgnored