AUDCAD sideways trading | Forex Factory

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AUDCAD sideways trading

  • #1
  • First Post: Nov 24, 2015 11:42pm Nov 24, 2015 11:42pm
I am interested ideas and methods from anyone trading the AUDCAD manually or with an EA.
I am using an EA for 6 months now and is going well. The backtest turned $150 into $60,000 in 12 months (compounded).
AUD and CAD are both commodity currencies so do not seem to stray far from each other, so my EA trades with no stop loss.

Hope to hear how people are doing with this pair. Thanks.
  • #2
  • Nov 25, 2015 12:12am Nov 25, 2015 12:12am
Quoting EventHorizon
I am interested ideas and methods from anyone trading the AUDCAD manually or with an EA. I am using an EA for 6 months now and is going well. The backtest turned $150 into $60,000 in 12 months (compounded). AUD and CAD are both commodity currencies so do not seem to stray far from each other, so my EA trades with no stop loss. Hope to hear how people are doing with this pair. Thanks.
Hi

Can you share your EA i am interested in similar trading. AUDCAD

Thanks
  • #3
  • Nov 25, 2015 2:52am Nov 25, 2015 2:52am
Quoting mkfx
{quote} Hi Can you share your EA i am interested in similar trading. AUDCAD Thanks
Sorry, I am using the EA commercially in a signal at MQL5.
  • #4
  • Edited 5:37am Nov 25, 2015 4:40am | Edited 5:37am
Quoting EventHorizon
my EA trades with no stop loss.

Do you monitor adverse excursions? (I don't mean it impolitely, I promise, but without knowing that, your demo EA results are surely purely academic?).
  • #5
  • Nov 25, 2015 5:46am Nov 25, 2015 5:46am
Quoting Xela
{quote} Do you monitor adverse excursions? (I don't mean it impolitely, I promise, but without knowing that, your demo EA results are surely purely academic?).
I turned off the EA during the Canadian election as I did not backtest an election.
  • #6
  • Nov 25, 2015 5:51am Nov 25, 2015 5:51am
Quoting Xela
{quote} Do you monitor adverse excursions? (I don't mean it impolitely, I promise, but without knowing that, your demo EA results are surely purely academic?).

When trading with no stop loss, it is a given that one day the account will blow out. But with possible returns shown in the testing. You just need to hope it survives until you take out your initial investment. If nothing extreme changes from the history backtested you are in for a chance at a high return. If you take out profit regularly, you can begin again after an account blow-out. You can use hedging to save an account, but this needs a bit of luck to get it right.
  • #7
  • Nov 25, 2015 6:23am Nov 25, 2015 6:23am
Quoting EventHorizon
I turned off the EA during the Canadian election as I did not backtest an election.

"Adverse excursions" doesn't refer to news/fundamentals/events.

It's a measurement of how far a trade can move against you before it closes.

"Favourable excusrion" and "adverse excursion" are trading parameters.

If you run an EA on demo and it closes a trade 10 pips in profit, without your having monitored that somewhere in-between being opened and being closed it was 2,000 pips in loss, then the overall results of the backtesting aren't valid in the real world. This is a particular problem when "monitoring" without examining favourable and adverse excursions, and is just one of the many reasons (especially when trading with no stop-loss) why demo-backtested results can be purely fictional.

More here: http://www.mypivots.com/dictionary/d...-excursion-mae
  • #8
  • Nov 25, 2015 7:29pm Nov 25, 2015 7:29pm
Quoting Xela
{quote} If you run an EA on demo and it closes a trade 10 pips in profit, without your having monitored that somewhere in-between being opened and being closed it was 2,000 pips in loss,
Of course this is part of the MT4 backtesting process. There were many parameters that didn't work and caused a trade to margin call. Thanks for the link.
  • #9
  • Jan 10, 2016 6:42am Jan 10, 2016 6:42am
AUD/CAD at significant level atm, price currently playing with strong support level at around 0.9845 - tested a few times now and looks like another test to come tomorrow, could be a break downwards below this level now or could only make it to 0.9835, we shall see
  • #10
  • Jan 10, 2016 6:18pm Jan 10, 2016 6:18pm
Quoting Don96
AUD/CAD at significant level atm, price currently playing with strong support level at around 0.9845 - tested a few times now and looks like another test to come tomorrow, could be a break downwards below this level now or could only make it to 0.9835, we shall see
Yea. I hope for a trade I am in. But the falling price of oil is killing the CAD. Seems a race between what is worse, China slump for AUD downside, or Oil falling for CAD.
  • #11
  • Sep 19, 2016 11:48pm Sep 19, 2016 11:48pm
AUD/CAD 4 hr engulfing bar downwards. zoom out or go to daily charts it is the top right shoulder of a head and shoulders. Also an enormous point of resistance. I am going short.
instagram: stepbystepforex
  • #12
  • Edited 9:02am Dec 24, 2016 7:34am | Edited 9:02am
Hi. Thinking about to choose this pair for long term trading.

We are in the range from 0.91 to 1.03 for 3 years now if we choose Aug. 2013 as the 'beginning'.
Now sitting in a almost perfect middle.

Im pretty unexperienced trading this pair long term so what do you think about.

What is the usual Aud/Cad spread, how big are the chances for a breakout of this range ?
What drives this Pair ? Fundamentals ? aso aso

Absolutely clueless about this pair on a long long term range, usually i trade it on daily basis
holding the trade few days. But when you start to trade on weekly you have to change you
thinking. And here i am.
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  • #13
  • Last Post: Dec 24, 2016 6:53pm Dec 24, 2016 6:53pm
Quoting Toranaga
Hi. Thinking about to choose this pair for long term trading. We are in the range from 0.91 to 1.03 for 3 years now if we choose Aug. 2013 as the 'beginning'. Now sitting in a almost perfect middle. Im pretty unexperienced trading this pair long term so what do you think about. What is the usual Aud/Cad spread, how big are the chances for a breakout of this range ? What drives this Pair ? Fundamentals ? aso aso Absolutely clueless about this pair on a long long term range, usually i trade it on daily basis holding the trade few days. But...
AUDCAD spreads are around 30. In the middle of the historical range is s good place to start. I have been doing more testing on the EA, but this range, while normalish, is still quite large for trading with no S\L.

What drives both currencies are mostly commodity prices. However, CAD is more susceptible to oil price abnormalities. At the moment oil prices are too low from where they should be (considering we are running out of the stuff). And also, Australia's economy is a bit dodgy and may be heading for a recession. So even though the price is in the middle of the range, it is because of abnormal circumstances. The AUDCAD has been at the high end because of low oil prices killing the CAD. It has come down, not because oil prices are normalizing, but because Australia's economy is flattening.

At the moment, if the oil price goes to normal (Saudis stop their price war to kill off shale oil) and the Australian economy tanks, we could see the AUDCAD drop even below the historical ranges. But usually the AUD shrugs off things quite quickly, as its currency is also used for carry trades because of its high interest rate. If the rates drop, and the USA rates rise to within sight of the AUD rates, I think AUD will plummet.

Its never a perfect time. But I trade by hit and run. I dive in when I think there is a period of medium term stability, make large moola before my system crashes.

What I would like to see is oil price go back to realistic levels. The market price-in the Australian economy, and then we should see a much tighter range, which is perfectly sideways and where I can clean up with my EA.
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