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Survival of the Fittest

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  • Post #1
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  • First Post: Oct 26, 2015 6:31pm Oct 26, 2015 6:31pm
  •  AllanS
  • | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Member | 193 Posts
The market is an ever-changing environment, and my position is an organism that is trying to survive and reproduce.

With this in mind, I've tried the following strategy for a few weeks now. The results look encouraging.

1) First thing Monday morning, buy 0.01 lots in a dozen pairs. (ie. drop 12 organisms into the environment.) No stops.

2) Mid-afternoon, kill the losers and reverse their position, again 0.01 lots. For the winners, put a stop at break-even and add one more position 0.01 lots. (ie. reproduce.)

3) Have another look last thing at night, and repeat the process.

4) The first successful order determines the subsequent orders on that pair, until BE is hit. For example, if the first buy is alive, only buy orders are allowed. If the first buy is alive and the second buy is dying, kill the second buy until the price rises past the previous high. In this world you have the power to raise the dead.

5) When a new position is added, all previous winners must have stops at break-even. Only one position per pair is exposed (and at 0.01 lots, the risk is small.)

5) All positions are closed last thing Friday night.

It's basically a way cutting loss, catching a small trend and pyramiding in. Last week was my best result, netting $450, and this week is up $63 so far.

Anyway, it looks interesting. Someone with programming skills might feel inspired to run some simulations.

Cheers.
  • Post #2
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  • Oct 26, 2015 6:40pm Oct 26, 2015 6:40pm
  •  yuki0912
  • | Joined Jan 2015 | Status: Solid Rule become ATM | 150 Posts
Is this?
Inserted Video
  • Post #3
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  • Edited at 8:23pm Oct 26, 2015 8:08pm | Edited at 8:23pm
  •  jangezkhan
  • | Joined Aug 2014 | Status: Member | 70 Posts
what is your time zone?

edit: nevermind - your profile says Australia

so i'm guessing ~8-9am morning, check again 3pm? then last check ~10pm?
  • Post #4
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  • Oct 26, 2015 10:32pm Oct 26, 2015 10:32pm
  •  AllanS
  • | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Member | 193 Posts
Yes. Sydney time. Roughly 8am, 4pm, 10 pm, fitting in round work etc.

Nice thing about this approach, if it actually works, is the small amount of time needed to run it.
  • Post #5
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  • Oct 26, 2015 10:34pm Oct 26, 2015 10:34pm
  •  AllanS
  • | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Member | 193 Posts
yuki, I couldn't get your video to load. What's the url?

Cheers.
  • Post #6
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  • Oct 26, 2015 10:52pm Oct 26, 2015 10:52pm
  •  jangezkhan
  • | Joined Aug 2014 | Status: Member | 70 Posts
it's the eminem song...

AllanS - what pairs (12 do you use)
  • Post #7
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  • Oct 26, 2015 11:44pm Oct 26, 2015 11:44pm
  •  AllanS
  • | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Member | 193 Posts
All the majors and a random selection of the minors. I'm not looking to trade weak currencies against strong etc. I'm not clever enough for that. The whole idea is to breed winners and kill losers. I'm letting the market be clever for me.
  • Post #8
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  • Oct 27, 2015 12:02am Oct 27, 2015 12:02am
  •  FerruFx
  • Joined May 2007 | Status: MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder | 6,795 Posts
Quoting AllanS
Disliked
All the majors and a random selection of the minors. I'm not looking to trade weak currencies against strong etc. I'm not clever enough for that. The whole idea is to breed winners and kill losers. I'm letting the market be clever for me.
Ignored
The problem is that you have no control on the size of the losers ... as you let them run in loss until your defined time to close them. So they might be small ... but also big in case of a big move in the wrong direction.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • Post #9
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  • Oct 27, 2015 12:55am Oct 27, 2015 12:55am
  •  AllanS
  • | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Member | 193 Posts
Yes. I've no reason in principle for not having an initial stop a level or two away.

Given a pretty-much random selection of pairs, a nasty move in one will generally be balanced by a nice move in another. A false sense of security, perhaps.

As we speak, I've 36 positions open. Six are losing. Cumulative losses this week are about $60. Net gain roughly + $34
  • Post #10
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  • Oct 27, 2015 1:15am Oct 27, 2015 1:15am
  •  FerruFx
  • Joined May 2007 | Status: MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder | 6,795 Posts
Quoting AllanS
Disliked
A false sense of security, perhaps.
Ignored
Definitively yes !!!

But time will tell if the way you are doing is viable in the long term.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • Post #11
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  • Oct 27, 2015 5:15pm Oct 27, 2015 5:15pm
  •  AllanS
  • | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Member | 193 Posts
Doing some back-testing by hand, I've decided that moving the stop to break-even quickly kills too many good trades. I'm going to trail the stop so that the price has to retrace through two areas of resistance to kill it. Using the biological metaphor, my creatures are investing some of their energy in growing armour. Hopefully, the extra losses will be offset by extra gains.

I now have 42 positions. 34 are alive and well. Net profit so far this week: $118
  • Post #12
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  • Oct 27, 2015 6:24pm Oct 27, 2015 6:24pm
  •  kprsa
  • Joined Feb 2014 | Status: ember | 1,267 Posts
Very interesting! Love the thinking process!
k
  • Post #13
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  • Oct 27, 2015 6:35pm Oct 27, 2015 6:35pm
  •  kprsa
  • Joined Feb 2014 | Status: ember | 1,267 Posts
One thing: the system is likely to perform slightly better if the initial positions are chosen according to the previous week's direction of the pair.
In biological thinking, you drop organisms along the stream, so that it is probable they need less turning.
k
  • Post #14
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  • Oct 27, 2015 7:23pm Oct 27, 2015 7:23pm
  •  AllanS
  • | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Member | 193 Posts
kprsa:

If last week went up, do you know the probability this week will go up also? If it's greater than 50%, it's definitely worth noting. Every bit helps.

Given that many weekly candles have substantial wicks, I'm wondering if it might be better to trade Wednesday to Wednesday, rather than Monday to Friday.

Years ago I traded futures using Metastock, and I could test these sorts of ideas easily. The programming language was very simple (accessible to amateurs like me) unlike MQL (that is much more powerful, but makes my brain hurt.)
  • Post #15
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  • Oct 27, 2015 7:48pm Oct 27, 2015 7:48pm
  •  jangezkhan
  • | Joined Aug 2014 | Status: Member | 70 Posts
Quoting AllanS
Disliked
kprsa: If last week went up, do you know the probability this week will go up also? If it's greater than 50%, it's definitely worth noting. Every bit helps. Given that many weekly candles have substantial wicks, I'm wondering if it might be better to trade Wednesday to Wednesday, rather than Monday to Friday. Years ago I traded futures using Metastock, and I could test these sorts of ideas easily. The programming language was very simple (accessible to amateurs like me) unlike MQL (that is much more powerful, but makes my brain hurt.)
Ignored
I was going to mention that it might be better to trade Wed to Wed (or Thu to Wed) many brokers do their weekend swap at the NY Wed Close (which for you is Thursday morning) quite a few times you'll see a retrace, either Wed or Friday
  • Post #16
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  • Oct 27, 2015 10:56pm Oct 27, 2015 10:56pm
  •  ridingsolo
  • | Joined Jul 2015 | Status: Member | 8 Posts
Very interesting thread. I've subscribed to follow along. I may try this out on demo next week. Are you trading live or demo? Also, are you trading with microlots?
  • Post #17
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  • Oct 28, 2015 3:00am Oct 28, 2015 3:00am
  •  AllanS
  • | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Member | 193 Posts
Yes. Demo, and 0.01 lots.
  • Post #18
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  • Oct 28, 2015 4:05am Oct 28, 2015 4:05am
  •  abokwaik
  • Joined Sep 2012 | Status: No guts, no glory | 3,620 Posts
Quoting AllanS
Disliked
The market is an ever-changing environment, and my position is an organism that is trying to survive and reproduce. With this in mind, I've tried the following strategy for a few weeks now. The results look encouraging. 1) First thing Monday morning, buy 0.01 lots in a dozen pairs. (ie. drop 12 organisms into the environment.) No stops. 2) Mid-afternoon, kill the losers and reverse their position, again 0.01 lots. For the winners, put a stop at break-even and add one more position 0.01 lots. (ie. reproduce.) 3) Have another look last thing at night,...
Ignored
Hi Allan,

I made a robot which acts in a similar way, I even called it Cut Losers Short, Let Winners Run (CLS_LWR), you can find a full description of it plus source is in my Robots Lab, Version 1, Version 2.

The idea was as follows:

I am sure that you're ware of the enduring saying "Cut your losses short and let your winners run."

Robot Idea :

Choose 3 consecutive time frames, (i.e. : H1,H4,D1 OR D1,W1,MN1)
Lets call them T1,T2,T3 where T1 is the smallest time frame.

 

  1. Open Buy and Sell on open of T1 with same lot size.
  2. At the close of T1, close the looser and keep the winner
  3. Repeat Step 1, and Step 2
  4. At the close of T2, close the looser(s) and keep the winners
  5. At the close of T3, close the looser(s) and keep the winners
  6. Protect you Big Winners with distant trailing stop

2 robot versions were developed (links above), and guess what :

It seems that the "CUT LOSSES SHORT and LET WINNERS RUN" saying is CORRECT
Remember we are using a simple stupid entry system (buy and sell at bar open), as simple as that, no bias, no indicators ... nothing.
Still, IMHO results are worth considering.

Best Regards,

Khalil

PS: The robot uses a single pair, but multiple instances can be attached to different pairs for multi-pair trading.

No guts, no glory
  • Post #19
  • Quote
  • Oct 28, 2015 7:15am Oct 28, 2015 7:15am
  •  ridingsolo
  • | Joined Jul 2015 | Status: Member | 8 Posts
What about diversification? If you have one short trade on for example on EUR/USD, do you open other short trades on other dollar pairs?
  • Post #20
  • Quote
  • Oct 29, 2015 2:43am Oct 29, 2015 2:43am
  •  AllanS
  • | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Member | 193 Posts
Quoting abokwaik
Disliked
I made a robot which acts in a similar way
Ignored
Thanks for the links. Very interesting reading.

The pessimist in me (the realist?) suspects that any simple strategy is doomed to fail. Suppose "Buy USD every second Tuesday" actually worked. Soon enough, every trader in the world would be buying every second Tuesday, no one would be selling, and the strategy would fail.

But I enjoy the challenge.

Speaking of which, the volatility last night killed off a goodly number of my trades, and as I'd loosened the stops, I'm now $120 in the red. We'll see what the rest of the week brings.

Cheers.
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