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Can anyone explain why all JPY pairs suddenly fell downwards?

  • Post #1
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  • First Post: Oct 2, 2015 12:48pm Oct 2, 2015 12:48pm
  •  forex_fairy
  • | Joined Aug 2012 | Status: Member | 392 Posts
I just mostly trade on usdjpy but checking on a few other jpy pairs suddenly lost power and fell down more than 100 pips which meant jpy gained a lot of strength at the NY open on 2-10-15.

Can someone explain why this occured?
  • Post #2
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  • Oct 2, 2015 1:17pm Oct 2, 2015 1:17pm
  •  Quantum7
  • | Joined Sep 2015 | Status: Member | 1 Post
Important US data : The Non-Farm Employment Change, Average Hourly Earnings m/m and Unemployment Rate were all released today and that had a major effect on most currency pairs.
 
 
  • Post #3
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  • Oct 2, 2015 2:12pm Oct 2, 2015 2:12pm
  •  forex_fairy
  • | Joined Aug 2012 | Status: Member | 392 Posts
Ok i see USD losing strength and all US pairs gaining or losing depending on whether US is Bid or ask.

Then again all jpy pairs fell which means jpy gained.
 
 
  • Post #4
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  • Oct 2, 2015 2:20pm Oct 2, 2015 2:20pm
  •  the redlion
  • Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Member | 2,680 Posts
Quoting forex_fairy
Disliked
Ok i see USD losing strength and all US pairs gaining or losing depending on whether US is Bid or ask. Then again all jpy pairs fell which means jpy gained.
Ignored
it was unclear whether the FED was going to raise rates....that was driving the value of the dollar, now that NFP was less than expected the implication is that the FED will most likely keep interest rates unchanged which changes my bias towards USD weakness. You saw that across the board the EURUSD is higher the USDJPY will in turn be lower as the JPY strengthens. I am not sure what the BOJ policies are or what factors are driving the JPY
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
 
 
  • Post #5
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  • Oct 2, 2015 4:33pm Oct 2, 2015 4:33pm
  •  fxjesus
  • | Joined Apr 2015 | Status: Member | 261 Posts
After lot of studying I can say fairly confidently the initial market moves are rarely interpretable in straightforward manner. I would almost say that most of the time, if there is some big move, there tends to be actually a range or a move to opposite direction (eg. a V-bottom) preceding the move.
However this kind of really fast move ("news moves") can also be reflective of a wide spread/illiquid market - usual in volatile condition. In such case the "big move" might not actually be that significant but observing and comparing the action after such wide/gap move compared to other instruments could give clues, such as that whether gap fills or not.

In this case the explanation likely is that the market has been volatile and no one was willing to get potentially steamrolled by offering tight bid/ask during that release which is kind of understandable as the recent news of "death cross" etc make market makers suspect there could be large flows in one direction so the wide spread/gap during news reflects that they didn't want to make tight markets.

This kind of "moves" are mostly a result of not being able to see the real market (if you can select whose bid & ask you see you could filter out HFT market making noise)- though if you look at recent historical range, that actually is of similar size as the big "move" - the bigger/more volatile range just reflects the sentiment of cautiousness, indecision and liquidity. With charts you only see what the real market was after the fact when a gap occurs.

Those who really understand the market structure and hope to profit from that don't really have much incentive to explain it in great detail but the information is certainly out there if you dig around. Is it necessary to even understand that to make a profit consistently - IDK but I think it's kinda like if you are buying a car to mainly go between home and work, do you care what goes on under the hood? If you do, maybe you could get advantage in picking the kind of car that gets your there a bit faster... or in this case, instead of making few % a year, maybe you could make a lot more. Or lose a lot more (while trying to figure it all out) in my case.

"move" in quotes means it looked like a move but was so fast that maybe it really was just wide spread/illiquid gap. A real move is one where buying or selling occurs. These gaps maybe huge but there wasn't necessarily much trading.
 
 
  • Post #6
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  • Oct 2, 2015 5:28pm Oct 2, 2015 5:28pm
  •  dkrock
  • Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Gone | 1,106 Posts
If you are not aware of pending news, you can easily lose trades. There are many sites that offer news release data, however it is according to their webpage and rarely convenient.

I use a free tool I found at http://fxnewsalert.software.informer.com/ There is a video you can watch to understand it better. Be sure to click the download on the left side, not the one above it. The download button above it looks like an ad.

Click the buttons, adjust the time zone, pick your pairs, pick how much alarm notice you want and the frequency, pick the sound of the alarm or add your own. News in the HIGH category normally produces spikes.
You cannot be extraordinary by being normal
 
 
  • Post #7
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  • Oct 2, 2015 10:00pm Oct 2, 2015 10:00pm
  •  DollarNSense
  • | Joined Jun 2015 | Status: in æternum discipulo | 36 Posts
People were going to the second best safe haven currency the yen.
 
 
  • Post #8
  • Quote
  • Oct 3, 2015 12:32am Oct 3, 2015 12:32am
  •  SirHenry
  • | Joined Feb 2015 | Status: Member | 4 Posts
Hi I'm new to forums, Ive been trading for 5 years (badly )
but finally getting it together, I made some of my own charts that predict trends perfectly so much that I went against them in the beginning,
last night was obvious to me that it was a game of chicken before the news, all bases were loaded down, when they panicked and sold off with two sided news the aud/usd pair shot up and down like a bungee rope, I was able to catch it several times in both directions with the aid of my chart, then it settled back to where it started,
so a percentage chart is very important in this case
 
 
  • Post #9
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  • Oct 4, 2015 2:29am Oct 4, 2015 2:29am
  •  dkrock
  • Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Gone | 1,106 Posts
Not sure what some of you are talking about, but I thought you understood from a previous post that it was the result of the non-farm payroll news release? It is on the first Friday of every month at 0830 Eastern. I offered you a link to a tool to track news releases so you can anticipate market jumps. Personally, I do not trade news releases so don't know anything about percentage charts, or jumping in and out of spike candles. I do not follow fundamentals nor try to "predict" world events, lol. I just wait it out while everyone else gambles and then when it settles back to running in patterns, I go back to making money. But for the OP, it is a normal spike for a first Friday.
You cannot be extraordinary by being normal
 
 
  • Post #10
  • Quote
  • Edited 4:14am Oct 4, 2015 3:42am | Edited 4:14am
  •  Kong
  • | Additional Username | Joined Sep 2014 | 330 Posts
Quoting forex_fairy
Disliked
I just mostly trade on usdjpy but checking on a few other jpy pairs suddenly lost power and fell down more than 100 pips which meant jpy gained a lot of strength at the NY open on 2-10-15. Can someone explain why this occured?
Ignored
JPY is a safe haven Bid... Recently you'd have done well simply trading USDJPY back to 120... Just check your daily chart.

If you're talking about the NFP then the initial knee jerk reaction on USDJPY was then bidded up by those who knew that this particular NFP release only counts for 10% of the rate decision. Easy shake out.

So what you may have witnessed on the drop could be explained by the bad number instigating uninformed dollar shorts and safe haven bids only to be quickly picked up by bargin hunting hedge funds and investment firms aware of what I first mentioned. Easy money for them.

Just my interpretation... News trading is a dirty game, only play when you can truely see the the angle.
 
 
  • Post #11
  • Quote
  • Oct 4, 2015 5:00am Oct 4, 2015 5:00am
  •  dkrock
  • Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Gone | 1,106 Posts
Quoting Kong
Disliked
{quote}News trading is a dirty game, only play when you can truely see the the angle.
Ignored
Your problem trying to trade news is that you do not know if big money already assumed a position in either direction. The spike can be a head fake for all those who already had positions and take profit. Or it can be a new sentiment direction and fly away. The news itself sometimes has no influence. I cannot count how many times news spiked the alternate direction and within minutes corrected back to the previous direction. On the other hand, there are also times it spikes and continues. You have no idea, so in my opinion, it is better to avoid it and wait for a fresh signal. If you cannot control the outcome of your trade, you should not make it. Your trading focus should be on making money, not on being right.
You cannot be extraordinary by being normal
 
 
  • Post #12
  • Quote
  • Oct 4, 2015 9:54am Oct 4, 2015 9:54am
  •  pipshero
  • | Joined Oct 2015 | Status: Junior Member | 2 Posts
The JPY pairs will keep on dropping somemore...
 
 
  • Post #13
  • Quote
  • Last Post: Oct 5, 2015 12:47am Oct 5, 2015 12:47am
  •  SirHenry
  • | Joined Feb 2015 | Status: Member | 4 Posts
thanks for the reply, I know trading news events is tricky, so I carefully risked it, but could see the game of chicken happening before the event so I was ready. and made a good trade then got out as it settled.I confine my trades to 3 things at the moment, and use them as a guide to each other, the brain is only capable of so much, there's a lot of conflicting news that keeps it in consolidation . over the past 5 years one thing I learned is position size, no matter which direction you think it will go, and preserve capital​
 
 
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