Caution: Math Geek STILL at work!

Hello!

Well, I've moved into the Commercial Content section at my own request. (yay!) That means that I can't continue posting on my old trading journal, so I'm starting this continuation thread. This will also serve as the spot for comments and questions from visitors to my blog, www.capitalisttrader.com (http://capitalisttrader.com).

Hey! It feels pretty cool to be able to link to my site any time I want without worrying about running afoul of the FF rules. This Commercial Content cage might not be so bad...

Anyway, I'm Scott, and I'll be your host!

For those who don't already know me from around the Factory, I am...

1. an amateur math geek
2. both a technical and fundamental trader
3. an Objectivist, extreme capitalist, libertarian...take your pick
4. an extreme INTJ (http://www.16personalities.com/intj-personality) on the Myers-Briggs scale

My main focus is on quantitative research into price movements in the FOREX market. You can learn more about me on my site's Mission page (http://capitalisttrader.com/mission/), and even see a (sort of blurry) photo!

So stay tuned, and...keep pipping UP!!

FA trade: Long EUR/GBP

Most of my trading activity lately is over on my Tick Density thread (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=545865&goto=lastpost), but I've just entered some orders based on my fundamental analysis system, which I haven't talked about much. I'm actually writing an ebook about it, but it's been almost a year in the making and I'm only about half done. So don't hold your breath for that!

Anyhooo...

I'm seeing a big long opportunity in EUR/GBP, as the fundamentals diverge bullishly from the negative price action. A Greek deal this weekend is a bit of a game changer, and could be the catalyst for a trend reversal here. I know, I know...it's bottom picking and trying to catch a falling knife, but my approach is to take small "exploratory entries" at first on lower time frames, and then add as the trade develops in my direction over the longer term.

So here's the weekly chart as an overview. You can see my two buy-stop entry orders which will trigger if price continues upward this week.



And here's a zoomed in version on the H3 chart, also showing my potential stop at 0.7150.
EDIT: OK, the first version was blank... let's try that again.



That is all. Keep pipping up!

Still trying to find the bottom on EUR/GBP. Tried 2 entries so far this week and have been stopped out both times for about 1% each. The thing is in free fall this week.

TO: Rparm in response to shout.

Because I'm now in the commercial jail, I can't PM or shout to members or anything apparently. So hopefully you'll see this response here.

The research documents that used to be on market-geeks.com are now all available on my current blog site capitalisttrader.com. The one I think you're referring to is here:

http://capitalisttrader.com/research-archives-1172008/

I dumped all of this old research onto my current blog in posts all dated March 7, 2014, so that's where it all is. The posts have links to the actual MS Word documents and any Excel spreadsheets I created for the project.

I'm currently in dire financial straights due to a low-paying job and massive car repair bills, so I haven't been concentrating on trading or blogging lately. I had to withdraw most of the cash from my trading account, which is tragic since I was starting to get some good returns from it. So that's why this response is so late.

Anyway, enjoy wading through the research!! :nerd:

An interesting intraday price pattern found by the Swiss National Bank -- see my blog post (http://capitalisttrader.com/an-interesting-intraday-price-pattern/).

Guaranteed Basic Income and the Gilligan Test (http://capitalisttrader.com/guaranteed-basic-income-and-the-gilligan-test/)

Sliding Oil Prices - Good or Bad? (http://capitalisttrader.com/sliding-oil-prices-good-or-bad/)

Oil and China and Feds, Oh My! (http://capitalisttrader.com/oil-and-china-and-feds-oh-my/)

Carry Trading Overhaul (http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheCapitalistTrader/~3/6En1tbE6Kkc/)
Posted:Wed, 03 Feb 2016 18:52:05 +0000
Greetings all! I’ve interrupted my recent rants (ahem!), I mean my recent series of posts on economics for a week or so in order to concentrate on upgrading my carry trade strategy. This is...

Carry Trade Details and a Forex Valentine (http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheCapitalistTrader/~3/CIqXpAA-cXo/)
Posted:Mon, 08 Feb 2016 09:42:11 +0000
Greetings! As Valentines Day draws near, it’s time once again for me to send those roses, to write that drippy love-sick poem, and to make reservations for a nice romantic candlelit dinner....

Carry Trade Tweak (http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheCapitalistTrader/~3/3XSEdyS-KnY/)
Posted:Mon, 15 Feb 2016 08:19:06 +0000
Greetings all! Just a quick addendum to the details of the carry trade strategy I laid out in the previous post. In that post I said that I always put buy orders below the current price and sell...

Economics and FA – a Recap (http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheCapitalistTrader/~3/ekObjari1ck/)
Posted:Mon, 15 Feb 2016 08:31:59 +0000
It’s a sad yet not so puzzling fact that many traders, retail currency traders in particular, rely purely on technical analysis, believing that fundamental analysis has little to offer. At the...

Oil, Ideology, and World War III (http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheCapitalistTrader/~3/kuhVq-x0G1s/)
Posted:Mon, 22 Feb 2016 10:19:14 +0000
Greetings all! You may have heard something over the past few weeks about a little drop in the price of oil or some such thing. I’m pretty sure a couple of the financial news outlets mentioned...

Negative Interest Rates and the Science of Choice (http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheCapitalistTrader/~3/jwHmSS0nNzM/)
Posted:Mon, 29 Feb 2016 16:39:59 +0000
When I was in high school back in the middle ages, I had an economics teacher named Mr. Stevens, who had a simple definition of economics. None of these dry paragraph-length textbook definitions..

How the Fed Works – A Screenplay (http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheCapitalistTrader/~3/sETQFCKK4T8/)
Posted:Mon, 07 Mar 2016 10:13:49 +0000
Greetings, caps and cappettes! There’s been a deal of noise in the financial media of late regarding the question of whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will drive on with its plan to gradually...

Will the Fed Defuse the Inflation Bomb? (http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheCapitalistTrader/~3/TnNW5wFeWQk/)
Posted:Mon, 14 Mar 2016 07:38:13 +0000
Suppose you’re out for a walk one evening and notice that someone is stockpiling gunpowder at a warehouse in your neighborhood. So you and the neighbors start expressing concerns that if this...

Why I don’t trade the Yuan (or even the Renminbi) (http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheCapitalistTrader/~3/hFYiWVeU1KY/)
Posted:Mon, 21 Mar 2016 07:50:50 +0000
I divide the currencies I trade into two types. For purposes of carry trading over the past few years of low global rates, I’ve used more exotic or emerging market currencies like the Turkish...

Need Deeper Forex Data? Try a Spy (http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheCapitalistTrader/~3/3ju4gtccxxI/)
Posted:Mon, 28 Mar 2016 09:01:39 +0000
My tag line for this blog begins with the word “exploring,” and that’s particularly appropriate this week. Originally, I had planned to post about a specific long-term fundamental...

It's a milestone at The Capitalist Trader (http://capitalisttrader.com)!

I just did a review of the account's first 50 trades, and there was a whopping 99% expectancy. That's a 99 cent gain on every dollar risked in the account for that set of trades. Here are the details (http://capitalisttrader.com/first-50-trades/).

And here's a visual of the first 50 trades!

Here's a nice open winning trade in the account. (http://capitalisttrader.com/my-trading/) (full disclosure: my other two current positions are down.