When Price is UP, buy; when Price is Down, sell short...

ok dokey traders, year 2015 has come to an end and we are in a new year, 2016 CE.

​so i think it is a good opportunity to present some trading analysis of mainly high daily range forex pairs.
for this year i intent focusing on 9 pairs almost exclusively, God willing.
there are 5 GBP pairs and 4 EUR pairs. the selected pairs have small to manageable spreads especially if traded in 4hrs and above time frames.

...and they are in no particular order: i have rounded the ADR if some pairs.

1. ​EURUSD...ADR= 120 pips this pair has the lowest Average Daily Range for the last 6mths. of the remaining 9 but is the most liquid or actively traded pair so we include it in our focus. the intention is to take regular profits here so we intent to trade this pair mostly in the 4hr tf.
2. EURAUD...ADR= 200 pips for the last 6mths.
3. EURNZD...ADR= 220 pips " " " "
4. EURCAD...ADR= 165 pips " " " "
5. GBPAUD...ADR= 235 pips " " " "
6. GBPNZD...ADR= 290 pips " " " "
7. GBPUSD...ADR= 120 pips " " " "
8. GBPCAD...ADR= 180 pips " " " "
9. GBPJPY...ADR= 170 pips " " " "

the EURUSD Mthly and Weekly Charts, an overview.

EURUSD continue;

Weekly tf

1. Weekly Trend is Down= down sloping 20b ema
2. Weekly Bias is Down= red candle formed last week.
3. therefore trade direction in 4hr tf is short.
4. until price forms a LSH Close and then proceeds to close above that. should that occur then we will trade long. with SL=PT.

​Since this pair is still in a Sideways Trading Range (see prior post Wkly comments) we will adjust our 4hr strategy accordingly and take profits regularly on a 1:1 reward/risk ratio. there is a trader here that does the same and he trades every 4hr reversal bar with excellent success.

for the other pairs i intend trading the 4hr+W combo as normal.

Hi Sunshine,
Happy new trading year,guess euraud weekly/4hr combo is selling presently,more like eurusd ?

Hi Sunshine, euraud monthly/daily combo seems UP,we can watch out for reaction at break-up point from the monthly chart on daily,or what do you think?

hi timilehin, happy new year to u too.

correct.
see Dly chart below...already its above its LSH BUT price needs to stay there and CLOSE there. if that happens then from tomorrow we will trade buys only.
OR...
u can drop down to 4hrs and trade long the close above the 4hr LSH which happened already.
but if prefer Dly tf then u have to wait.

and here are the 4hr charts showing where the 4hrs closed above its LSH which gave the buy signal

red news today for the GBP & USD

Here are 4 short trades taken off the Weekly+4hr combo's...just closed.
on the EURUSD chart is also visible the long trade that was closed by PT...that trade was entered off 4hr+30min combo, in other words, an intraday trade.

Red news for GBP in just over an hour and later in the day its NZD

the 2 middle charts of GBPNZD+EURCAD are buys off the 1hr+ Dly combo and it looks like the 4hrs close in 30mins may confirm stacking. (entries were not optimal)
the EURUSD SellStop seen on the 4hr chart is based off the last red bar if this current 4hrs close green i will switch to buy mode...also yesterdays successfull long trade is visible on that 2 ling blue bars
on the EURCAD one can see yesterdays short gain.

intraday trade 1hr+Daily combo::

bliksem !!! i'm loosing my internet signal again today...i am trying for a long time now to upload this chart....the other downside is that i can't enter trades...eish !
i'm trading from my laptop via a cellular signal provider...the signal is there but it shows "EDGE" connection which for practical surfing and trading purposes may have been non-existent​

 

1. EURCAD Profit Target (PT) reached, now waiting for 4hrs to show its bias...ok by the time this post is up then the 4hrs has closed already, there is nothing i can do but wait until my cell signal returns to full.

​

red news today for GBP, USD & CAD

Weekly+4hr combo: 4 sell orders below their last 4hr lows.

1. EURUSD
2. EURNZD
3. EURCAD &
4. GBPNZD

I cant watch the market today so i have placed sell orders below the last -brb, all have completed -brb's except EURCAD which has not made a -brb

yesterdays sellstop order short trades were stopped out for loss, but i have several longs in already.
below are 3 charts;

1. EURUSD has 2 buy trades...4hr LSH + Dly upbar... the W+4hr trade bias is still intact, i'm just trading the 4hr tf here as per this method.
2. GBPCAD has both 4hr LSH & a Dly+M combo, so looking to enter.. i missed the last 4hr bar close entry
3. edit: the 3rd chart on the right is a possible short signal forming, but we have to wait until bar close.

​

red news later in the afternoon for CAD & USD

i am a bit upset because i could not drop in at the close of every 4hr bar close yesterday to take all that buy signals on the other pairs that i trade. due to their common currency unit, EURUSD, they tend to move in the same manner in the same direction most of the time.

there are pros & cons to trading pairs that have a common currency, but i find that the pros out weigh the cons.
the main reason why i am a bit upset is that after my shorts were stopped out... the next 4hrs bar formed a buy signal as in the EURNZD ... in the case of the EURCAD the buy signal came afterwards on the 2nd bar.

if anyone would like to see what i'm referring to then just ask and i will post the charts to throw more light unto the explanation and increase trading knowledge.

Early Warning of possible Trend Change in Weekly...

EURAUD:

 

1. 2 Weekly charts below in 2 different formats to make plain and clear what i see,
2. we need a Wkly close above that LSH,
3. should friday close above that LSH then for next Week, buys rule in 4hrs and in Daily tf...
4. Why Daily also ??? because the M+D combo is up !!! and,
5. the Dly has been trading above its own LSH since yesterday, by that i mean that Wednesdays price closed above its LSH

​

but look at the star... the 4hs tf... i just love this time frame...

the 4hrs gave a buy signal at 5100 when it closed above its Last Swing High (LSH) and price is currently around 5400... a massive joyfull 300 pips before the Weekly signal. (i'm rounding off the price levels)
see the 4hr charts below to clearly see when and where the buy signal was generated.

note to those unfamiliar with my trading terms here...LSH does not refer to the high of the last swing BUT it refers to the Close price of the LSH. to see this distinction clearly...
...switch to bar or candlestick charts then look at the high of that swing,
...now switch to Line chart and look at the High of that swing...compare the difference...can u see it ???

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

overall gain on yesterdays long trades in 2x EURUSD & 1x GBPAUD.
closed all because i don't want the opportunistic insiders take out my stops when the USD manipulators become active later today.

below is the Dly chart of the USD...note the downsloping channel that price is currently in...i anticipate 2 scenarios:

1. the channel is sloping down which means that price may continue down until bottom slope, or
2. price may reverse its current daily red in lower tf and punch though upwards. i favour this option.
3. keep i mind the M+D combo bias is up

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