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  • #461
  • Apr 25, 2015 9:15am Apr 25, 2015 9:15am
Quoting dagoods
yaed. imo stops are way more important + difficult to get in the right spot each time. i think we do ourselves the biggest favor to mark charts of where our stops go. i'm believer that not to worry too much about perfect entries, but be sure about stops as perfect as possible. they do work together though. mark charts with stops in mind and ideal entries also secondly perhaps is a good exercise to do.
I tend not to agree actually. Experience tells me, if i can work out really good entries, the stops are unimportant, because there is no need for them. I CAN work them out though.

Lets just get on with it, and since you showed an interest in stops, i will mark them.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: planned techpsych 13.jpg Size: 222 KB


There are countless of likewise examples.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #462
  • Apr 25, 2015 10:39am Apr 25, 2015 10:39am
Quoting 12hrman
{quote} Wait what? can u show this on a chart.

yeah. i'd like to see that too. I'm holding my breath. lol
  • #463
  • Apr 25, 2015 3:38pm Apr 25, 2015 3:38pm
Erh... Thats it for me on this thread i think. Not sure. It feels done.
Maybe i will answer a question or two or something. Note sure.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #464
  • Apr 25, 2015 7:42pm Apr 25, 2015 7:42pm
Quoting PaulJames
Hello everyone. I simply wanted to add one thing to this thread. If you are going to use the lower tf, and you want to look to "get rich quickly" (Over leveraging), then why not focus on having accurate entries and working backwards. Basically the market moves from daily pivot to daily pivot. Being that daily pivots are recalculated daily and reverses occur from those specific prices, why not look at the price which occurs leading to a pivot being hit. If we work backwards, you will clearly see the loop the market trades in.
How is the result of your strategy?
  • #465
  • Apr 26, 2015 9:02am Apr 26, 2015 9:02am
Quoting yaed
Erh... Thats it for me on this thread i think. Not sure. It feels done. Maybe i will answer a question or two or something. Note sure.

Hi yaed,


Pls continue with more examples if possible, especially the latest discoveries u made (pls refer to attached pic). I saw u had made some changes to your profile, hopefully u are not being told by someone or some secret organization to shut the mouth. I hope nothing has happened. And I wish u well.
Attached Image

Best Regards,
LearnAlways
I only know I know nothing
  • #466
  • Edited 5:07pm Apr 26, 2015 4:26pm | Edited 5:07pm
Good looking system and I think this works but without repeating myself, I wrote in another thread what I think about posting systems with so specific intraday entries:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...66#post8229066

ie. Lets assume this thing works on live accounts right now (or atleast when posted initially). If enough people are interested in "getting rich", what happens is what I said in that post - after entry things start to get more choppy and volatility/range expand. The retail brokers show you generally the mid point or last trade price on charts and may have order execution implemented such that as things get more volatile, tight stops get executed (easily -> reversal at the stop) and as the stops are implemented as market orders, they cause price to seek out further orders, so you have a stop cascade one way and then MM/HFT algos can take advantage of this situation and send the price the other way with ease, so those entering on breakouts get in on both sides. If previously the price was at equilibrium and there's some people holding and hoping (as their breakout went immediately to loss), a fake trend will form into whatever way that ensures that as few as possible win. I could probably explain this more clearly but since what happens depends on what people do, the result will always be dynamic and that means, intraday system needs to have a way to notice what happens *after* entry and rules based on that. And ideally such that it still wins when breaks start going to loss all the time.

So while traders are posting these intraday systems with good intentions, the result will always *always* be unhappy followers. If not due to "trade getting too crowded", then due to failure to understand the matching / execution engines. The purpose of those engines is to execute orders on the book. So as bunch of scared noobs pile up on a working system, they start putting in stops (due to some getting greedy and over levered etc) and smart traders (if not mm's etc) will then notice that "oh look, trade is getting crowded, bet there's bunch of stops all over the place soon" and by knowing how the engines work they can "stop hunt" both ways and make decent money of the breakout traders. This will continue as long as there's still people entering on breaks (trades start going to immediate loss on both sides of lows and highs). Then soon you have some people going to sleep if they don't close at loss - that ensures the market will give them pain as the market makers will now focus on stuff below the previous lows (now turning into highs if there's people holding and hoping).

Also as implied, because stops (even stop limits) at broker and exchange get turned to market orders, as the liquidity dries / mm widen spread etc, those entering using a stop order pay increasing amount of spread. Practically this means that unless you trade this intraday, figuring out when the liquidity starts thinning out is key. Newbies trying this and then following on demo don't cause the thinning to happen. When they then go live a month later, the thinning will happen and they don't know how what to look for. Age old problem in retail trading and I think MT4 is just not the ideal platform for being able to figure things out in the shorter timeframes.

Further, the retail market makers generally show you price movement that is smooth, like a sine wave. This hides what really goes on where the liquidity is - and in extreme condition the difference between price retail market makers show and the interbank market is gets so high that the retail brokers will cancel trades for all sort of reasons if people start making money big time - because they couldn't hedge those fake smooth prices with the banks at the volatile time. This occurs particularly when specific high probability entries are combined with lot of money piling on the same second. So as long as there's only small amount of total retail money entering at particular moment in time, the things work and profits are possible. The system fails if people pile up or profitable traders increase size too much. I don't know how big size but I suspect that if you are getting into 1+ million total, leveraged or not, judging whether the real liquidity can support that at that instant when there's no news driving a big shift (like just announced qe) and such, is hard. So slippage grows as size grows.
  • #467
  • Apr 26, 2015 9:35pm Apr 26, 2015 9:35pm
Quoting fxjesus
Good looking system and I think this works but without repeating myself, I wrote in another thread what I think about posting systems with so specific intraday entries: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...66#post8229066 ie. Lets assume this thing works on live accounts right now (or atleast when posted initially). If enough people are interested in "getting rich", what happens is what I said in that post - after entry things start to get more choppy and volatility/range expand. The retail brokers show you generally the mid...
what you mentioned here could be very true, but I personally don't think any of the big guys care about 1 or 2 mini contracts, as some institutional traders here mentioned, we got taken as a collateral damage. also, it depends on the broker type, whether you are trading against your MM broker or the IBs as the counterpart. all in all, unless you are trading several millions, you can't make a ripple in the forex ocean.

and don't forget, not everyone understood this 'secret', and not everyone participate at the same time zone, thus the effect is negligible.

focus NOW please, don't worry about something you are not even there yet.
  • #468
  • Apr 27, 2015 2:44am Apr 27, 2015 2:44am
Quoting LearnAlways
{quote} Hi yaed, Pls continue with more examples if possible, especially the latest discoveries u made (pls refer to attached pic). I saw u had made some changes to your profile, hopefully u are not being told by someone or some secret organization to shut the mouth. I hope nothing has happened. And I wish u well. {image} Best Regards, LearnAlways
Nobody tells me what to do. There are some who thought they could but they soon learned they where wrong.

I think the stuff i have presented here is about as good as i want to make it currently. If i think of anything more i will post.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #469
  • Apr 27, 2015 2:53am Apr 27, 2015 2:53am
Quoting fxjesus
Good looking system and I think this works but without repeating myself, I wrote in another thread what I think about posting systems with so specific intraday entries: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...66#post8229066 ie. Lets assume this thing works on live accounts right now (or atleast when posted initially). If enough people are interested in "getting rich", what happens is what I said in that post - after entry things start to get more choppy and volatility/range expand. The retail brokers show you generally the mid...
I dont quite see why anyone with a 10.000.000.000 $ would go after stops that they can earn some 100$ on. I mean the coffe those people are drinking is more worth then that. If you could perhaps show this on a chart, which is a specific way of talking about it. I want to see pip distances, which pair, which time of day, things like that.

Sounds to me like you dont want to trade and you are trying to convince other people not to. That doesnt seem to make much sense at all to me.

I could take just one of your statements and investigate that and ask why you think so. I dont really see what it is you are trying to do.
"So while traders are posting these intraday systems with good intentions, the result will always *always* be unhappy followers."
Ok then, that seem to indicate either 1) The people reading this are "followers" therefore this thread is superflous.
Or 2) The people reading this thread is not "followers" in which case this statement in itself is superflous and not something you need to bring up for discourse at all.

Lets take another example:
"Also as implied, because stops (even stop limits) at broker and exchange get turned to market orders, as the liquidity dries / mm widen spread etc, those entering using a stop order pay increasing amount of spread."
Ok what does that mean practically? That you shouldnt enter a trade? That trading is impossible? That you shouldnt have a stoploss? That its impossible to make money trading? That what ever you do you will loose? I dont quite see what the purpose of this is.

If you could write just one sentence that explains the reason why you wrote that whole bit, then maybe it would make a lot more sense. The way i look at that mass of text right now it almost seems like some sort of program selected sentences around a particular theme that is: "Retail traders loose." In that case i DO agree, MOST of them loose. I was trying to run a thread about how not to. And i dont really see how this post you made are working in that direction.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #470
  • Edited 5:03am Apr 27, 2015 4:38am | Edited 5:03am
All I was trying to say is that it felt to me like you were genuinely sharing something that works/worked live but when I clicked some stats link from earlier reply it ended up in profile where someone said classified so I figured maybe you already began to notice the effects of hundreds or thousands of followers (people testing this out). Maybe this was just a misunderstanding on my part. I said it only take $1M to see these scalp systems break apart (even that might be optimistic). I've seen this enough times that I thought I could atleast inform what would happen. Maybe it hasn't happened yet, if so, great, enjoy while it lasts.

"I dont quite see why anyone with a 10.000.000.000 $ would go after stops "

There's several scenarios - there could be intentional "stop hunting" or simply lack of liquidity. If you have stop entry orders sent to the broker while there's a lack of liquidity, they execute as market order and then try to match. Most buy side traders don't post orders in the books - atleast not in a way that every trader could see where every order is. So by not seeing where the orders are we can only guess at the liquidity through the way price acts (PA). This lack of public orders in books creates a vacuum. The bucket shops price track other markets.

I'm not saying don't trade. I just say that if everyone knows how these things work, we can be informed and not pay spreads and commissions (nvm huge slips thru the vacuum) to brokers when the trade gets crowded (did you have a rule on what to do if there's instant loss and gap away?)
  • #471
  • Apr 27, 2015 6:01am Apr 27, 2015 6:01am
Quoting fxjesus
All I was trying to say is that it felt to me like you were genuinely sharing something that works/worked live but when I clicked some stats link from earlier reply it ended up in profile where someone said classified so I figured maybe you already began to notice the effects of hundreds or thousands of followers (people testing this out). Maybe this was just a misunderstanding on my part. I said it only take $1M to see these scalp systems break apart (even that might be optimistic). I've seen this enough times that I thought I could atleast inform...
OK Jesus then i sort of get what you are about. I think these ideas i have posted here are too general to be thought of as "a system". I havent seen a single person that would make the kind of entry i would so there is no evidence to assume there are a lot of people that makes the same entries as me.

Who does what and goes after what orders doesnt matter to me, i just read the charts. Now that i come to think of it here is another chart. This one is more philosophical then systematic.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Euclidic trading.jpg Size: 164 KB
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #472
  • Apr 27, 2015 6:32am Apr 27, 2015 6:32am
Quoting yaed
{quote} OK Jesus then i sort of get what you are about. I think these ideas i have posted here are too general to be thought of as "a system". I havent seen a single person that would make the kind of entry i would so there is no evidence to assume there are a lot of people that makes the same entries as me. Who does what and goes after what orders doesnt matter to me, i just read the charts. Now that i come to think of it here is another chart. This one is more philosophical then systematic. {image}
I'll give this one a whirl. Why not maybe we uncover something together. here goes:


looks like B took a longer period of time to form than A, but its pretty close. i'm guessing about 1.25 times as long.
B took a longer period of time to form than C. significantly longer. maybe 10 -20 times as long or something.
C did not take very long to form, only 3 candles, much shorter period of time than D. maybe 8 times as long.

By the the "size" of their respective parts I'm presuming you are referring to the legs you drew. Therefore: the legs drawn are made up of Price + Time. The size can further be broken down into the time size, how long it took or number of candles, vs. how far it moved in pips. The combination makes up your zig zag.

Yes. time matters.

good discussion. thanks.
  • #473
  • Apr 27, 2015 7:37am Apr 27, 2015 7:37am
Quoting dagoods
{quote} I'll give this one a whirl. Why not maybe we uncover something together. here goes: looks like B took a longer period of time to form than A, but its pretty close. i'm guessing about 1.25 times as long. B took a longer period of time to form than C. significantly longer. maybe 10 -20 times as long or something. C did not take very long to form, only 3 candles, much shorter period of time than D. maybe 8 times as long. By the the "size" of their respective parts I'm presuming you are referring to the legs you drew. Therefore: the legs drawn...
Well as it so happens, a big chunk of that is night time PA, so if its moving slow thats not so strange.

One thing you could have a look at is their relative pip size, i find that interesting at least. Is B half as big as A? How much bigger is C then B?
If you think about it like that, maybe it doesnt matter how many candles each move is made up of?
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #474
  • Apr 27, 2015 7:41am Apr 27, 2015 7:41am
Quoting joancb
{quote} Are you rich?
No, i am poor.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #475
  • Apr 27, 2015 8:04am Apr 27, 2015 8:04am
I have accounts up now with a 4 different brokers, eggs divided and so on. I will begin live trading again in a few days, there is just some few calculations and other stuff to deal with. After that im trading live again so i wont post that much, i cant analyze the charts and write stuff on them and post and so on, since then i might let go of a big chunk of my TPs. Like i said, i close almost all of my trades manually. Anyway, enough is said here already for anyone of like mind to dig deep into and if there are any questions i will be here, sometimes. I think maybe not for very long though.

Im pretty much done with FF when it comes to learning. It takes a lot of time and effort that i need to concentrate into the live accounts.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #476
  • Apr 27, 2015 8:26am Apr 27, 2015 8:26am
Quoting yaed
{quote} Well as it so happens, a big chunk of that is night time PA, so if its moving slow thats not so strange. One thing you could have a look at is their relative pip size, i find that interesting at least. Is B half as big as A? How much bigger is C then B? If you think about it like that, maybe it doesnt matter how many candles each move is made up of?

For Sure. for estimating time with a glance, easier to look on a line chart most likely.
  • #477
  • Apr 27, 2015 9:07am Apr 27, 2015 9:07am
Hi yaed,

I would like to ask a question based on your PA expertise, do u think sunshine thread "When Price is UP, buy; when Price is Down, sell short...", is about the same methodology as your this thread? His thread is based on LINE chart. I mean no bad intentions to any of the 2 thread posters mentioned, I just want to learn more and improve my trading that's all. I would be grateful if u can provide me your valuable insight, thanks a lot.

Best Regards,
LearnAlways
I only know I know nothing
  • #478
  • Apr 27, 2015 9:49am Apr 27, 2015 9:49am
Quoting LearnAlways
Hi yaed, I would like to ask a question based on your PA expertise, do u think sunshine thread "When Price is UP, buy; when Price is Down, sell short...", is about the same methodology as your this thread? His thread is based on LINE chart. I mean no bad intentions to any of the 2 thread posters mentioned, I just want to learn more and improve my trading that's all. I would be grateful if u can provide me your valuable insight, thanks a lot. Best Regards, LearnAlways
I will answer with a chart and then you answer the question yourself based on the chart. This is how i read PA. This way disregards BEAR/BULL thinking, it doesnt matter if the candle ends above or below where it began. This is enough to trade. Losses are unavoidable.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Simple pa.jpg Size: 190 KB


This is the most basic and most important knowledge in trading i think.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #479
  • Apr 27, 2015 11:40am Apr 27, 2015 11:40am
Quoting yaed
{quote} I will answer with a chart and then you answer the question yourself based on the chart. This is how i read PA. This way disregards BEAR/BULL thinking, it doesnt matter if the candle ends above or below where it began. This is enough to trade. Losses are unavoidable. {image} This is the most basic and most important knowledge in trading i think.
The Chonchy
  • #480
  • Apr 27, 2015 11:51am Apr 27, 2015 11:51am
Quoting Petr.K
{quote} And one more thing I do think that those Highs And Lows are most of the time on the Daily Pivot points see: :-) have a nice day and thanks for you answer .. {image} {image} {image} {image}
.....Nice charts...
The Chonchy
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