The most important bar on the daily EURNZD chart is updabar from 16/October. This is a fake breakout above top-line. Note, the high of this bar = 1.77002. This is clear manipulation aimed to:
-> knock out sellers who place their stops above 1.77002
-> attract buyers in a trap.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
On the very next day 17/Oct - price reversed down. Further price action confirmed, market is not interested to break out above top line A. Thus, we have to expect a breakdown below line B. So, the plan could be as follows:
1) Techincal bounce up from line B. The Exhausting volume on this up-wave will confirm the bearish character. As well as rejecting from 50% halfway back level.
2) breakdown of line B (with an increase in volume). In this case, bears could achieve line C around 1.72
Oleg Alexandrov, market analyst. Find me in Google