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Exotic Pairs (EURTRY, USDRUB, MXNJPY...)

  • #41
  • Feb 10, 2014 6:08am Feb 10, 2014 6:08am
eur/try moves much faster
  • #42
  • Feb 10, 2014 6:14am Feb 10, 2014 6:14am
Quoting zaghloul
{quote} I'm curious why you chose EURTRY over USDTRY. The pip values are the same, but the margin is higher for EURTRY and the spread is larger, and the liquidity is lower.
I am a long term trader. I don't look to open and close trades for scalps or intraday. Most of my trades have a long term TP therefore spread, margin etc does not affect me long term.

Attached Image


And as letscry mentioned, ET moves a lot. I like more volatile pairs than slow moving pairs.
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #43
  • Feb 10, 2014 7:08am Feb 10, 2014 7:08am
from 3,0500 to 3,0280 drop was bad for me lost my profit, eatpips can i ask why u use 3.0200 as sl level i was thinking 3.0300
  • #44
  • Feb 10, 2014 7:17am Feb 10, 2014 7:17am
Quoting letscry
from 3,0500 to 3,0280 drop was bad for me lost my profit, eatpips can i ask why u use 3.0200 as sl level i was thinking 3.0300
4HR Support Line
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #45
  • Feb 10, 2014 7:21am Feb 10, 2014 7:21am
thx.
  • #46
  • Feb 10, 2014 7:33am Feb 10, 2014 7:33am
will open long at 3,0300
  • #47
  • Feb 11, 2014 2:25am Feb 11, 2014 2:25am
3.02 has been holding so far and currently testing the 23.6.

Would like to see 3.06 tested at some point for confirmation of upwards continuation.
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #48
  • Feb 11, 2014 4:39am Feb 11, 2014 4:39am
pff so tough moves, making me sl i think will long from 3,0200 area again.
  • #49
  • Feb 11, 2014 5:32am Feb 11, 2014 5:32am
I gave up on the TRY. I'll wait for a serious movement to buy again. I don't understand why its going down, with all the bad news and negative outlook and Erdogan's dictatorship, who the hell has any investor confidence? Hopefully Yelen today says that QE will be tapered more aggressively.
  • #50
  • Feb 11, 2014 12:24pm Feb 11, 2014 12:24pm
dunno if i should long from here made a lot sls till now
  • #51
  • Feb 11, 2014 3:00pm Feb 11, 2014 3:00pm
Logically the USDTRY should be at 2.4 or more by now. But logic went out the window.
  • #52
  • Feb 12, 2014 2:52am Feb 12, 2014 2:52am
According to the study below fair value of USD/TRY is 2.43

http://www.piie.com/publications/pb/pb13-29.pdf

Similarly big mag index gives a value around 2.4 too if i remember correctly. However monetary policies affect fair values of the currencies. For example USD/JPY fair value is around 98 according to the first study i gave above however BOJ policies and forward guidance keep it above 100...



After sharp move to upside we need some consolidation period for the acceptance of the new levels. There is a FATF conference (http://www.fatf-gafi.org/documents/n...-feb-2014.html) which can cause increasing momentum in TRY pairs. Unfortunately we are in the grey list and shamefully improvements are on the negative side.

My delta phenomenon studies gives bullish sentiment change around February 28 along with the completion of the Medium Time Delta 7th step. (May occur some earlier duo to bullish Long Time Delta Count)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDTRY.jpg Size: 97 KB
  • #53
  • Feb 12, 2014 3:30am Feb 12, 2014 3:30am
Quoting zaghloul
{quote} I'm curious why you chose EURTRY over USDTRY. The pip values are the same, but the margin is higher for EURTRY and the spread is larger, and the liquidity is lower.
Pips values for E/TRY and U/TRY are not the same. E/TRY has higher pips value and margin requirement is definitely higher.
  • #54
  • Feb 14, 2014 12:36am Feb 14, 2014 12:36am
will long eu/try when ever it hits 3.000 with a sl at 2.9900 and hold for 3.0500
  • #55
  • Feb 14, 2014 2:06am Feb 14, 2014 2:06am
Quoting letscry
will long eu/try when ever it hits 3.000 with a sl at 2.9900 and hold for 3.0500
Im still holding my ET longs. Can't see a change of bias unless 2.9 gets taken out on the daily.
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #56
  • Feb 19, 2014 11:30am Feb 19, 2014 11:30am
Quoting EatPIPs
{quote} Im still holding my ET longs. Can't see a change of bias unless 2.9 gets taken out on the daily.
Finally seeing some light on ET
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #57
  • Feb 19, 2014 12:51pm Feb 19, 2014 12:51pm
Hello Guys. I am from Turkey. I guess you dont know anything about USD/TRY or EUR/TRY. Technicals dont work on these pairs. In 2 days USD/TRY went from 2.00 to 2.17. Volatily is too high most of the time. Becauseits political. Because there is a big problemwith goverment. And in March there is local elections. Until March, USD will go up. And there is central bankmoves. Imagine that USD/TRY dropped to 2.17 from 2.39 in 1 day because central bank increased interest rates. So, dont talk about technicals, read newspaper. When there are nonews, than think about technicals. One clue for you: USD/TRY will be 2.4 (at least). And in a few months (at most).
  • #58
  • Feb 19, 2014 1:19pm Feb 19, 2014 1:19pm


Technical works quite nice as always...

TRY long holders left positions and moved to other markets... We experienced some demand on Asian season, strong supply in European season within last two weeks but today strong TRY shorts on US season which was something new...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDTRY3.jpg Size: 94 KB

It looks that Delta Phenomenon Medium Time Delta bottom has already formed.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDTRY1.jpg Size: 217 KB

HEW counts Wave (b) of Wave (iii) took place with nice 58.6% retracement.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDTRY2.jpg Size: 171 KB

Current development looks nicely impulsive.


2.535/8 levels are my next target...
  • #59
  • Feb 19, 2014 1:22pm Feb 19, 2014 1:22pm
Quoting Almondeyed
Technical works quite nice as always... TRY long holders left positions and moved to other markets... We experienced some demand on Asian season, strong supply in European season within last two weeks but today strong TRY shorts on US season which was something new... {image} It looks that Delta Phenomenon Medium Time Delta bottom has already formed. {image} HEW counts Wave (b) of Wave (iii) took place with nice 58.6% retracement. {image} Current development looks nicely impulsive. 2.535/8 levels are my next target...
Techs do work nicely. I'm in for the long run 3.0+
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #60
  • Feb 19, 2014 1:24pm Feb 19, 2014 1:24pm
all funny
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