Hello Everyone...There is obviously a great deal of experience-backed information here at FF. I've also spent many hours doing my DD on the Net in general before I start trading live (again) in Forex. The trouble is:
The more I learn about the Forex market (its construction, regulation - or lack thereof, unscrupulous broker tactics, etc), then the more skeptical I become that ANYONE can consistently trade in this market without eventually getting their clock cleaned. Perhaps most disheartening is trying to filter everything read (and considering the source) to really arrive at some semblance of truth enabling one to either chart a course for Forex success or just steer clear of the rocks completely.
I realize this is a touchy subject at a forum devoted to Forex traders and trading...Then again, there's no shortage of touchy subjects, members and postings here from what I've read so far. I think I can pretty much sum up most of my thoughts at this point into my first question:
1) Why would a (semi-regulated) Forex broker EVER allow a client to consistently make profitable trades if those profits come directly out of the broker's pocket?
If I understand the workings correctly, Forex brokers with a "dealing desk" provide liquidity when filling your buy/sell order by taking the opposite position. Given that this broker directly controls the price movement, knows all stop orders in their system at any given time, operates in a pseudo-regulatory environment and is in business to make a profit, then isn't it true that any account that is showing repeatedly profitable results would then be "targeted" in order to stop the hemorrhaging?
A couple of years ago I blindly followed a Forex system promoter into the arena and took a $10,000 demo account up pretty significantly during the trial. Then I applied the SAME (manual) methodology when I went live with the "largest" broker at the time only to suffer loss after loss, closing the account within 30 days and taking $6k of my $10k back to the equities market. I blamed the guy's SYSTEM for being faulty...Which brings me to another question that's been bugging me for days:
2) If an automatic trading program exists that takes the emotion out of Forex trading for individual traders and has been proven to produce profitable results through extensive back/forward testing, then why would any broker (again) allow you to sit back in your easy chair and collect a paycheck at the end of every month at their expense?
I've used computers since the punch card days at the mainframe in college...I also connected to that same mainframe through my Timex-Sinclair PC and a 300/1200 baud modem from my dorm room. The point being that nowadays you don't need a Cray Supercomputer for instantaneous and massive data analysis. While this isn't news, it does lay the foundation for my "conspiracy theory" behind a certain trading platform. Consider that if a broker's ability to meet payroll depended more on unscrupulous and devious methods instead of simple pip spreads and commissions, then wouldn't it naturally be appealing to the masses if you offered them the ability to develop or purchase an EA and have it automatically deposit profits into their Forex account while they sleep? If 90-95% of individuals lose money trading Forex, then it becomes a revolving door and the one with the most new accounts wins. And doesn't that make all of these EAs just mirages that promise easy money in free demo accounts, only leading those who follow them to live trading failure and losses...Even though the "program", its parameters and even the market conditions could essentially remain exactly the same?
This leads me to my final question:
3) If one employs a "proven Forex system" (manual or auto) and consistently trades it more or less without emotion and chooses an ECN for order placement, then is it possible (not probable, just possible) to enjoy any long-term trading success in the cash Forex market, given its current construction?
I've actively traded equities long enough to take a loss like a man, either because of a stop-out or just a boneheaded move on my part. I also have no problem losing money in Forex if my system stops me out (legitimately) or if I deviate from it and lose. However, I do have a problem taking capital into Forex if there's just absolutely no way I can leave with more money than I came with regardless of what I do.
A couple of weeks ago I demoed an EA I bought at eBay...Over the course of 7 trading days it took a $10k demo account to $12k without any intervention whatsoever on my part, running on a single currency pair 24 hours/day. Of course it scared the shite out of me when the pair started trending and this crazy thing started using a Martingale betting strategy to repeatedly double-up on bad positions, ultimately being down $6k (open positions) when I woke up one morning. It recovered, but I got a refund when I told the guy there's just no way I could trade that EA with a live account.
The point is it showed me that an EA can consistently take Forex profits in a demo account. There are also some very good trading strategies posted here (although I haven't personally tested any myself yet in a demo account). But none of that means much if everything changes when you move from demo to live trading.
On top of that, just when I've researched and researched brokers/ECNs and opened 2 accounts last week, I see a post here at FF that references a YouTube video of a broker-bashing guy who claims to present "credible" broker reviews and flat-out states that:
Although just putting my thoughts into words in this post has helped me at least understand the treacherous waters of cash Forex, it doesn't mean I'm above risking a couple of $k of an account balance to see if I can turn a profit and be allowed to keep it...And that may be what I need to do, since nobody here can tell me for sure if I'll win or lose. But I am legitimately asking the above questions to those of you who've been around Forex longer than me. I've read posts here and at other boards by those claiming that they make a living, pay the bills, etc through Forex trading. I also read where a guy claimed to be "from an Italian village of 1,000+ Forex daytraders"...LOL But I do tend to believe that there is a very narrow choice of options and actions that result in consistent Forex profits. I'm not looking for details and secrets...Just anyone who wants to share experiences.
You know, like "everyone I've ever know has lost it all when they came to Forex" or "my friend and I trade throughout the week and whenever we get stop-sniped, we close that account and move it somewhere else to keep what we kill" (if you'll forgive the Riddick reference). I just want a level playing field where I can win or lose fairly...Maybe that's asking too much in Forex?
LOL...It figures...I spend my holiday morning typing this message and went to double-check something at the bastards site and I see a new 10min video in the reviews section. It looks somewhat like damage-control to me. But he specifically confirms many of the broker tactics I've read about...Now whether or not I'm ready to trust someone who was possibly "caught" in the middle of a conflict of interest...Well, I'm still thinking about that one?!?!?!
The more I learn about the Forex market (its construction, regulation - or lack thereof, unscrupulous broker tactics, etc), then the more skeptical I become that ANYONE can consistently trade in this market without eventually getting their clock cleaned. Perhaps most disheartening is trying to filter everything read (and considering the source) to really arrive at some semblance of truth enabling one to either chart a course for Forex success or just steer clear of the rocks completely.
I realize this is a touchy subject at a forum devoted to Forex traders and trading...Then again, there's no shortage of touchy subjects, members and postings here from what I've read so far. I think I can pretty much sum up most of my thoughts at this point into my first question:
1) Why would a (semi-regulated) Forex broker EVER allow a client to consistently make profitable trades if those profits come directly out of the broker's pocket?
If I understand the workings correctly, Forex brokers with a "dealing desk" provide liquidity when filling your buy/sell order by taking the opposite position. Given that this broker directly controls the price movement, knows all stop orders in their system at any given time, operates in a pseudo-regulatory environment and is in business to make a profit, then isn't it true that any account that is showing repeatedly profitable results would then be "targeted" in order to stop the hemorrhaging?
A couple of years ago I blindly followed a Forex system promoter into the arena and took a $10,000 demo account up pretty significantly during the trial. Then I applied the SAME (manual) methodology when I went live with the "largest" broker at the time only to suffer loss after loss, closing the account within 30 days and taking $6k of my $10k back to the equities market. I blamed the guy's SYSTEM for being faulty...Which brings me to another question that's been bugging me for days:
2) If an automatic trading program exists that takes the emotion out of Forex trading for individual traders and has been proven to produce profitable results through extensive back/forward testing, then why would any broker (again) allow you to sit back in your easy chair and collect a paycheck at the end of every month at their expense?
I've used computers since the punch card days at the mainframe in college...I also connected to that same mainframe through my Timex-Sinclair PC and a 300/1200 baud modem from my dorm room. The point being that nowadays you don't need a Cray Supercomputer for instantaneous and massive data analysis. While this isn't news, it does lay the foundation for my "conspiracy theory" behind a certain trading platform. Consider that if a broker's ability to meet payroll depended more on unscrupulous and devious methods instead of simple pip spreads and commissions, then wouldn't it naturally be appealing to the masses if you offered them the ability to develop or purchase an EA and have it automatically deposit profits into their Forex account while they sleep? If 90-95% of individuals lose money trading Forex, then it becomes a revolving door and the one with the most new accounts wins. And doesn't that make all of these EAs just mirages that promise easy money in free demo accounts, only leading those who follow them to live trading failure and losses...Even though the "program", its parameters and even the market conditions could essentially remain exactly the same?
This leads me to my final question:
3) If one employs a "proven Forex system" (manual or auto) and consistently trades it more or less without emotion and chooses an ECN for order placement, then is it possible (not probable, just possible) to enjoy any long-term trading success in the cash Forex market, given its current construction?
I've actively traded equities long enough to take a loss like a man, either because of a stop-out or just a boneheaded move on my part. I also have no problem losing money in Forex if my system stops me out (legitimately) or if I deviate from it and lose. However, I do have a problem taking capital into Forex if there's just absolutely no way I can leave with more money than I came with regardless of what I do.
A couple of weeks ago I demoed an EA I bought at eBay...Over the course of 7 trading days it took a $10k demo account to $12k without any intervention whatsoever on my part, running on a single currency pair 24 hours/day. Of course it scared the shite out of me when the pair started trending and this crazy thing started using a Martingale betting strategy to repeatedly double-up on bad positions, ultimately being down $6k (open positions) when I woke up one morning. It recovered, but I got a refund when I told the guy there's just no way I could trade that EA with a live account.
The point is it showed me that an EA can consistently take Forex profits in a demo account. There are also some very good trading strategies posted here (although I haven't personally tested any myself yet in a demo account). But none of that means much if everything changes when you move from demo to live trading.
On top of that, just when I've researched and researched brokers/ECNs and opened 2 accounts last week, I see a post here at FF that references a YouTube video of a broker-bashing guy who claims to present "credible" broker reviews and flat-out states that:
Every review here goes through a 6-step verification process before getting posted to avoid user abuse by either trying to bash or sugarcoat particular forex service provider.
Unfortunately, that video has "been removed by the user" after only 4 days...Along with another video of a Trader's response that has been removed by the user after only a few HOURS. These kinds of actions concern me as much as anything else mentioned above. I specifically decided to open an account with one of his top 3 reviewed brokers, only to read in that thread that he apparently gets a 25% commission/kickback/call-it-what-you-like for funneling new Forex traders to them. If that was disclosed up front, I might not have a problem...But given the fact that he refers to so many Forex bastards trying to make money by screwing us over -- but that his site is "different", impartial and credible -- well, I already feel like I just got screwed over and I haven't even funded an account or made a trade yet!Although just putting my thoughts into words in this post has helped me at least understand the treacherous waters of cash Forex, it doesn't mean I'm above risking a couple of $k of an account balance to see if I can turn a profit and be allowed to keep it...And that may be what I need to do, since nobody here can tell me for sure if I'll win or lose. But I am legitimately asking the above questions to those of you who've been around Forex longer than me. I've read posts here and at other boards by those claiming that they make a living, pay the bills, etc through Forex trading. I also read where a guy claimed to be "from an Italian village of 1,000+ Forex daytraders"...LOL But I do tend to believe that there is a very narrow choice of options and actions that result in consistent Forex profits. I'm not looking for details and secrets...Just anyone who wants to share experiences.
You know, like "everyone I've ever know has lost it all when they came to Forex" or "my friend and I trade throughout the week and whenever we get stop-sniped, we close that account and move it somewhere else to keep what we kill" (if you'll forgive the Riddick reference). I just want a level playing field where I can win or lose fairly...Maybe that's asking too much in Forex?
LOL...It figures...I spend my holiday morning typing this message and went to double-check something at the bastards site and I see a new 10min video in the reviews section. It looks somewhat like damage-control to me. But he specifically confirms many of the broker tactics I've read about...Now whether or not I'm ready to trust someone who was possibly "caught" in the middle of a conflict of interest...Well, I'm still thinking about that one?!?!?!
