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Is Forex reliable?

Quoting FX_James
{quote} i mean more than 1% daily profit is difficult
Sorry, but even with the 1%, as pointed out by others, it still does not make much sense. Looking forward to any clarification, thanks.
  • Post #82
  • Quote
  • Edited 11:56pm Nov 16, 2013 11:21pm | Edited 11:56pm
Quoting AimHigher
{quote} MapleLeaf, The bet that I have to make $3,000 EVERY month, I would never take since by simple randomness, almost any strategy with a long term positive edge is likely to have negative months, unless it has a very high frequency of trades or a very high and consistent edge. If the bet was to make $36,000 in a 12 month period, I would gladly accept it BUT depending on some clarifications: What is the starting equity am I allowed to have in my account? Can I choose which broker to use? Do I have to trade the the entire 12 month period or can...
Aim,

MapleLeaf hasn't posted in a while. It also seems that he has his own view as to what "profitable" means. Perhaps he should read articles like this one. Or perhaps he's intentionally framed the rules in such a way as to discourage a successful trader from accepting his challenge.

Moreover, I'd be reluctant to accept such a challenge, without first ensuring that the proposer has the cash necessary to pay out, should he lose the bet. It doesn't make sense to me why anybody would put $36,000 at risk, just to satisfy himself that nobody else can succeed where he himself has not. Especially as the bet proves nothing: for even if one trader was to accept and fail, it doesn't necessarily mean that that trader isn't 'normally' successful, or that there are other professionals who trade for a living.

Hence I believe that MapleLeaf may be bluffing, and is counting on the possibility that nobody will be brave enough to call him. That way he can continue to promulgate his view (that it's impossible to trade profitably for a living) with apparent impunity.

David
David,

I am pretty sure MapleLeaf is indeed bluffing or, if not, included the $3,000 EVERY month as the deterrent to avoid being taken up on his BS challenge. I would also never participate unless both parties put the required $36,000 in escrow with a reputable and independent third party, prior to the start of the challenge.

I also agree with you that the outcome would prove absolutely nothing since it would only represent one out of a virtually infinite number of end results.

Aim
Quoting Forexnuts
{quote} Sorry, but even with the 1%, as pointed out by others, it still does not make much sense. Looking forward to any clarification, thanks.
Quoting AimHigher
{quote} With this "clarification" your original statement makes even less sense. If you earn 1% per day, with 252 (approximately) trading days in a year, that would equal an annualized return of 1127%. Do that for three years (assuming no taxes) and your 10,000 would grow to over $18,000,000. This is an overly simplified scenario since it doesn't factor in the negative effect on compounding from having losing days but regardless, making a high % return should be easier with a small account e.g. $10,000 than it is with a large account. I still don't...

"forex is 5+ trillion dollar business so more than 1% daily from $10k investment is difficult < my original statement"


This picture can say how easily shake and wipe out your $10k account by five trillion dollar money
Attached Image
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  • Post #86
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  • Edited Nov 18, 2013 1:49am Nov 17, 2013 6:30pm | Edited Nov 18, 2013 1:49am
Quoting FX_James
{quote} {quote} "forex is 5+ trillion dollar business so more than 1% daily from $10k investment is difficult < my original statement" This picture can say how easily shake and wipe out your $10k account by five trillion dollar money {image}
Um, no offense, but do you understand what a stoploss, and fixed fractional sizing, are?
Perhaps you should spend some time reading babypips school.

Incidentally, the scale of your diagram is not very accurate. If 38 pixels represents 10k, then it would require 19 billion pixels to represent 5 trillion. It's very easy to underestimate the magnitude of a number that can be represented by writing a mere 13 digits.
Quoting FX_James
{quote} {quote} "forex is 5+ trillion dollar business so more than 1% daily from $10k investment is difficult < my original statement" This picture can say how easily shake and wipe out your $10k account by five trillion dollar money {image}
I feel like I am arguing with someone who claims the earth is flat. Not only are we not on the same page, we are not even in the same book.
hanover & AimHigher

let me explain

one guy has $10 k to start a fruit shop another guy has $1000k to start same type of fruit shop with same items in same place that 2nd rich investor sell fruits below 10% profit while poor fruit shop owner sell with 10% profit so the customers buy from rich person's shop suddenly poor shop owner's business loss then rich shop owner will start selling with +20% profit for his products because there is no competition now

this is what happening in forex with your $10k investment against the 5 trillion dollar but 5% traders over come this by using better strategy that hack the rich persons system but how ?

1, entry and exist within the range
2, probability of win
3, money management and lot size

result is no more than 1% profit daily, bet ? it is possible in some rare market condition.
Thanks for the clarification, sort of..but to be honest, it is kinda wonky but guess that's me. It looks like we have to agree to disagree unless you can convince me otherwise..
Quoting FX_James
hanover & AimHigher let me explain one guy has $10 k to start a fruit shop another guy has $1000k to start same type of fruit shop with same items in same place that 2nd rich investor sell fruits below 10% profit while poor fruit shop owner sell with 10% profit so the customers buy from rich person's shop suddenly poor shop owner's business loss then rich shop owner will start selling with +20% profit for his products because there is no competition now this is what happening in forex with your $10k investment against the 5 trillion dollar but 5%...
That analogy does not apply to forex if you use the right broker. In forex, even with a small account you should be able to get at least the same prices as with a really large account. Actually, with a small account you could actually get better prices since your orders are small enough that they don't move the market price but with a really large account and hence large orders you might not be able to enter and exit without moving the market price and thus you get worse execution in a large account. This is a very important issue since it makes the small account more flexible when it comes to the number of profitable strategies that could be deployed. So it is still easier to get a high %-age return in a small account than in a large one. The only thing that is easier with a large account is getting a certain $ return i.e. making a $10,000 profit on a $1,000,000 account is obviously easier than making $10,000 in profits from a $10,000 account.

Anyway, as Forexnuts said, I think I am simply going to agree to disagree since I doubt that I have convinced you that your view is not accurate. If your viewpoint somehow makes it possible for you to make a profit trading forex or if it keeps you away from trading unprofitable strategies, then great.


Aim
"Trading for living" was my dream.
Today I see forex as a way to multiply my savings, not as a salary source.

Nevertheless it seem possible.
You have to study a lot ad to be very determined.
Some tools to estimate your gains and/or losses in Forex:

Forex tutorial:
http://www.spediafx.com/ebook
Several calculators:
http://www.spediafx.com/tools/calculators/profit-loss
{Promotion Removed}
Quoting FX_James
forex is 5+ trillion $ business in a day so it may difficult to get profit from your $10k investment
What?!? Are you saying it's hard to get "enough" profit to live on? To be deemed 'acceptable'? To grow your account (at a reasonable pace)?

If you can buy 10k of X and sell it at X + 10% and someone else can buy 18t of X and sell it at X + 10%, then you've both made the same profit, relative to your account. Hence the % profit is the same.

( The reason % is used instead of actual amount returned because % is an expression of a ratio, and hence can used as a comparison for different sized values. )

Therefore, it is quite possible to return X% profit with account size of Y or account size of 1000*Y.

In fact, as has been stated by others previously, it's actually more difficult for excessively large size trades to be executed without causing slippage of the entry price or other issues. This is offset by discounts, better spreads, etc., which will often (?) be offered by those handling these large transactions.


I'm afraid that I would generally not 'agree to disagree' with someone making flawed statements like that. :-/
Forex is also as other businesses, if you dont have plan(trading strategy), you will have bankrupt
If the trader does not have a plan, he is going to wipe out his account..that's the only certainty about this market..
Quoting ElComandante
I have heard many rumors about Forex that Forex is not reliable and Forex is a risky business and you can loss all your money. So I am very confused about Forex so plz help me and tell me Is Forex reliable or not?
95% FX traders lose money. Do you think you the the other 5%? Try it and result would show. The learning curve is harsh but the pay absolutely worth the pain and time you pay.

If you are mentally weak and self-centered Mr. Right, I suggestion you stay away from this business. This would be my best advice, not a personal attack.
Learn the rules like a pro, so you can break it like an artist.
Chaffee Return This Year: 1,037.6%
Reliable - To do with Activity? With the amount of money flowing in and out of the market, I'd say it is reliable, in terms of liquidity and being able to get in and out of trades.

Reliable - To do with making money? Can be a bit tricky, if you're not careful. In fact, it can be tricky even when you are careful.

Reliable - To do with volatility? The market can move steadily, either in a trend or ranging, but there are certainly times where there is a sudden, unexpected shift (not talking about news) in either direction (and sometimes both). So perhaps not reliable (read: consisitent) in that respect.


Given all that - if you try to be a bit careful, you can deal with all the negative aspects and come out with a reasonable profit.
Quoting Aimak
{quote} Forex is a fast market and using leverage is like flying a F18, its a great weapon but with no training you will kill yourself.
This is the best definition I hear on the subject.

I believe demo trading is good for getting the idea, but problem is with real account circumstances are different. A lot of things you would do on demo is not wise to repeat on real. Psychology is different because demo is risk-free.
Quoting hanover
{quote} Um, no offense, but do you understand what a stoploss, and fixed fractional sizing, are? It's very easy to underestimate the magnitude of a number that can be represented by writing a mere 13 digits.
Thanks for the laughs, did think something was wonky with the graphics but to be fair, a factual image for the five trillion may take up the whole page. Guess we would just have to use our imagination..
Absolutelly .. forex spot market is really reliable
In my experience most traders will loose their money in long term, but its only their mistake ..
Forex market is one of the hardest market, but on another hand gives you lot of
opportunities to trade. Allmost everyday there is some trading opportunity.

I personally prefer combination:
FOrex spot market for speculation .. higher risk with smaller deposits
+
Stock market for longterm investment
Exponencial money management is the key!
i think so, but if we already be able to understand and minimize the risk
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