~ My response to a friend's email after he made an error in his speculation about the S&P's price ~
There is something really interesting about charts.. as you look back it is really easy to see what you "would have done", but the question is when the time actually comes can you pull the trigger and more importantly can you recognize an opportunity when one is present?
I am talking more about my method than yours, lucky for you [your method] is 90% mechanical. Signals are obvious (a line crosses another line) and you take signals during a specific time of the day.. but my method is more like 45% mechanical, finding areas where there are enough buyers or sellers to keep my trades from just being guesses. This is an exhausting task and when I am wrong it can be extremely frustrating.
Support and resistance is what I use to enter my trades. This seems like a simple process, but defining these areas properly and consistently takes experience, patience, and immense skill. When I first started trading I read a book that said before you start trading you have to realize "it takes about 5 years to become a truly profitable trader". I did not understand until now how right that author was, and until this moment I did not fully recognize the magnitude of the commitment I pledged myself to after making that first trade a few years ago (I believe it was buying a few hundred shares of ebay, what a mistake that was).
I have come a long way since then, but will I ever truly find my true self as a trader? I love trading, but am I a trader? Do I have what it takes? Only time can really answer that question...
My Warmest Regards,