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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #22,361
  • Dec 6, 2016 1:56am Dec 6, 2016 1:56am
Quoting andexQ
{quote} Glad to see your charts again that ultra high volume regions dragging my attention, mine is not as high as your..
Have finished many projects over the last half year so chance is high to have more time for trading :-)

Oh yes, the high volume zone is interesting. Will try to compare it with other brokers data as well as options data later
  • #22,362
  • Dec 6, 2016 2:17am Dec 6, 2016 2:17am
Quoting infinitus
Gold weekly TF think, it will get interesting, when back at the 1300 level Sentiment: Gold at 10% bulls now {image}
long silver for 5 days now at 16.54, waiting for a nice move.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #22,363
  • Dec 6, 2016 4:26pm Dec 6, 2016 4:26pm
Quoting infinitus
now it will getting interesting to hear the explanations of the FA side for the move in EU
Short squeeze. What invalidates this count in the down side? Touching again 06,8xx ?
  • #22,364
  • Dec 6, 2016 4:41pm Dec 6, 2016 4:41pm
Quoting manosk
{quote} long silver for 5 days now at 16.54, waiting for a nice move.
You're going to 19.xx or more ?
  • #22,365
  • Dec 6, 2016 5:33pm Dec 6, 2016 5:33pm
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} Short squeeze. What invalidates this count in the down side? Touching again 06,8xx ?

Do you mean this one?

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...06#post9319706

If yes:


The fat B, which is the current low, may go down to 0.969, which is then 1,61x wave A. Most B-waves in flat corrections end after 1,38x A, which would be around
0.9984
  • #22,366
  • Dec 7, 2016 1:07am Dec 7, 2016 1:07am
Quoting infinitus
now it will getting interesting to hear the explanations of the FA side for the move in EU

Have we anything substantial to read, yet?
  • #22,367
  • Dec 7, 2016 1:11am Dec 7, 2016 1:11am
Is Janet Yellen Sabotaging The Trump Administration?
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...61206_yell.jpg
What would be a better going-away present for a new but critical administration than crippling the economy?

That is exactly what I am thinking since Trump got elected......
  • #22,368
  • Dec 7, 2016 1:26am Dec 7, 2016 1:26am
Quoting infinitus
http://www.elliottwaveforex.com/2016...week-recovery/
I was thinking about smaller timeframes. I mean, if the price comes down to 1,068xxx, does it invalidate the TP to 1,08xx???
  • #22,369
  • Dec 7, 2016 2:40am Dec 7, 2016 2:40am
Quoting chess king
{quote} You're going to 19.xx or more ?
I would certainly like to see that but while I believe we have seen the lows it has difficulty at the moment breaking 17. So first target it that and we see the force of movement. I believe in this phase silver will lead and gold will follow
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #22,370
  • Dec 7, 2016 3:40am Dec 7, 2016 3:40am
Will AM look like this girl after the German election in 2017 ?

Sixer
Attached Image
  • #22,371
  • Dec 7, 2016 4:42am Dec 7, 2016 4:42am
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} I was thinking about smaller timeframes. I mean, if the price comes down to 1,068xxx, does it invalidate the TP to 1,08xx???

Hi Lavanda,

if we assume, that the recent move up from the low is only a correction in the bigger scheme, than it is possible to come down to the 1,068 or even the low at 1.0506 again without invalidating anything.

The recent run up can be a wave A, followed by a deep retracing Wave B down (think about a flat-setup, where wave B can go lower than the starting point of wave A), or it can be, that the recent run up is the wave 1 of a larger impulse, and the following wave 2 may go down to even the starting point of the wave 1 at 1.0506
  • #22,372
  • Dec 7, 2016 4:45am Dec 7, 2016 4:45am
Quoting Sixer
Will AM look like this girl after the German election in 2017 ? Sixer {image}



we will see.

Yesterday she made eventually a smart move with promising many things the right wingers are demanding. We have to see how things develop and if people see her 180 degree turn as trustwothy
  • #22,373
  • Dec 7, 2016 5:24am Dec 7, 2016 5:24am
The AM-Alternative: "Guttie" !!!

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/i...-14097148.html

Sixer
  • #22,374
  • Dec 7, 2016 7:41am Dec 7, 2016 7:41am
Quoting Sixer
The AM-Alternative: "Guttie" !!! http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/i...-14097148.html Sixer

shall we give 2nd chance to him? :-)
  • #22,375
  • Dec 8, 2016 2:41am Dec 8, 2016 2:41am
will get an interesting day today


when Draghi delivers further easing, I think he has to do it big, because Markets may have rallied on hopes of easing.

If he only prolongs Bond buying up to six months, markets may fall (stocks). If he delivers more, the ralley may go on.


By looking at the SP500 and applying EW on it, the last moves since the low of the beginning of the year at 1807 looks like a 1-(1-2-now 3... sequence.

That means: targets ahead of 2500 for this maybe last move higher.


I scratched my head for hours over the count, but even when I try to be bearish, the above mentioned sequence comes out as just to in the middle of an ending diagonal.

The problem for a very bearish case is, that since the Donald got elected, the recent leg up got longer now than the previous leg up, so the hopes of the bears were destroyed yesterday, when the supposed to be wave 5 got longer than the wave 3.


So by simply looking at the SP500 we might get an idea of what the FED and the ECB may do this month.

It looks like more or sustained free money for the 1 percenters


If Draghi delivers big, Euro may crater

If he delivers inline expectations, the EURUSD upside may be limited



What do you think?
  • #22,376
  • Dec 8, 2016 2:57am Dec 8, 2016 2:57am
SP500 EW count weekly


looks bullish? I think a more bearish case can only be established, when Draghis as well as the FED "shocks" the markets this month with outright tightening.

But who will expect that from the Italian "whatever it takes", when the Italian banks are already under severe pressure?

And regarding the FED: yes, Yellen can give the Donald a poison pill by driving the yields up. But will she dare?

OK, when both will dare tightening, the only immediate bearish EW count I can come up with is a failed 5th. This event is rare.


Here is the bullish count. If someone has idea on how to make the count bearish is invited to share her/his thoughts
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  • #22,377
  • Edited 3:14am Dec 8, 2016 3:00am | Edited 3:14am
Quoting infinitus
will get an interesting day today when Draghi delivers further easing, I think he has to do it big, because Markets may have rallied on hopes of easing. If he only prolongs Bond buying up to six months, markets may fall (stocks). If he delivers more, the ralley may go on. By looking at the SP500 and applying EW on it, the last moves since the low of the beginning of the year at 1807 looks like a 1-(1-2-now 3... sequence. That means: targets ahead of 2500 for this maybe last move higher. I scratched my head for hours over the count, but even when...

it seem to me usd already prepared for drop, sooner or later it will drop maybe to 97/98 area for mid-term target i think
let's see atm. testing important support..

usdx - h4
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  • #22,378
  • Dec 8, 2016 3:10am Dec 8, 2016 3:10am
EU 2h TF
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  • #22,379
  • Dec 8, 2016 4:32am Dec 8, 2016 4:32am
http://www.roboforex.com/analytics/f...wave-08122016/


http://www.mtrading.com/analytics/wa...within-uptrend



hmmm, many Elliotticans, including me, basically in the same count.

Time to rethink.......?
  • #22,380
  • Dec 8, 2016 10:47am Dec 8, 2016 10:47am
Long EU at 1.0608 stop LL of the Y..
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