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Bonds

  • Post #21
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  • Edited Sep 18, 2005 3:16pm Sep 13, 2005 3:11pm | Edited Sep 18, 2005 3:16pm
Quoting merlin
dont wait for 114 man! it WILL go to 114, then down to 110. im only speaking from a fundamental standpoint, of course. i havent even done any technical analysis on the position, other than looking at the charts you have been attaching in this thread (thanks for those, btw).
how did you work out the fundies - does it include that matrix you posted?

i see 114 as weekly support that might cause the selling to pause or bounce - thats why i want to see a convincing break!
Quoting Isotonic
how did you work out the fundies - does it include that matrix you posted?
yes the matrix is part of it. my exact reason, however, is posted earlier in this thread (second post).

man, did you see them bonds drop today!!!! awe man that made me so happy. i was surprised though, with the CPI coming out lower than expected, i thought bonds would rise. but they didnt. even good news is making bonds drop now adays!
Relax and be happy.
Quoting merlin
yes the matrix is part of it. my exact reason, however, is posted earlier in this thread (second post).

man, did you see them bonds drop today!!!! awe man that made me so happy. i was surprised though, with the CPI coming out lower than expected, i thought bonds would rise. but they didnt. even good news is making bonds drop now adays!
i've checked your positions today and it looks like you're heading for breakeven.

maybe you're right, shudda jumped in!
Attached Images
bonds keep on slippin, slippin, slippin.....into tha future.
Relax and be happy.
Quoting Isotonic
looks like you're heading for breakeven.
im in the money now! my 30yr is at breakeven, but i shorted the 10yr a little higher. im still confused though, why is the position suddenly going in my favor when all this bad US data is coming out? PPI and CPI showed lower inflation, and consumer sentiment was worse than expected today.
Relax and be happy.
just wondering if hurricane katrina saved greenspans neck?

interest rates in us should not be on a tightening policy.now he can reduce interest rates and give the excuse that he is easing due to katrina damage
just a theory of mine.i wont be trading this theory,only technical signals
by the way anybody using the soultrader/hilda baker trading system.i have no intention of buying it.just wondered what the basic setup was?in my own opinion there is no system,the only way is to do classic chart analysis.trendlines/channels etc
man, what the hell is goin on in the bond market?!?!?

the fed comes out raising rates AND they had the "measured pace" paragraph in the statement...bonds immediately take a dive. before i even finished celebrating, they bounced back up, higher than they were in the past four days! i dont get this. friday bonds slipped back down after a pinbar on thursday (see jim, i am learning).

its been a rocky ride with this trade. im still confident in it though. i need to see the 114 level hit again by the end of the month though.
Attached Image
Relax and be happy.
Quoting merlin
man, what the hell is goin on in the bond market?!?!?

the fed comes out raising rates AND they had the "measured pace" paragraph in the statement...bonds immediately take a dive. before i even finished celebrating, they bounced back up, higher than they were in the past four days! i dont get this. friday bonds slipped back down after a pinbar on thursday (see jim, i am learning).

its been a rocky ride with this trade. im still confident in it though. i need to see the 114 level hit again by the end of the month though.
To the Wizard Merlin, my personal observations have showed me time and time again that TA will beat FA and news. Does that mean I work in a vacumn and ignore the fundamentals and news? No, in fact I am very aware of fundamentals and news as they can disrupt prices in the short term. I have seen too many times where the news or the fundamentals will say the price should go one way. And the TA will tell me the price should go the other way. I hope I don't sound like I am preaching, especially to you who I admire and respect. However, my observations have helped me to become a very focused and disciplined trader who believes in what he sees technically.
Steven
hey merlin

i dont think greenspan cares about the housing boom.i think politicians only care about the loss of votes if there are repossessions
that is there own peoples fault for getting into too much debt and the banks fault for lending them too much money.factors beyond the feds control.the fed instigated it by printing too much money
our main aim is to tarck the trend NOT OTHER PEOPLES MISTAKES
we will go with the flow
Quoting merlin
man, what the hell is goin on in the bond market?!?!?

the fed comes out raising rates AND they had the "measured pace" paragraph in the statement...bonds immediately take a dive. before i even finished celebrating, they bounced back up, higher than they were in the past four days! i dont get this. friday bonds slipped back down after a pinbar on thursday (see jim, i am learning).

its been a rocky ride with this trade. im still confident in it though. i need to see the 114 level hit again by the end of the month though.
It is clear that the rate increase was discounted earlier in the price action, that's exactly what you did with oil, buy the rumor, sell the news, or short the rumor, cover the news

Thanks,

Nader
Quoting narafa
that's exactly what you did with oil, buy the rumor, sell the news, or short the rumor, cover the news
well, i see what you are saying, but i didnt really think this was a "rumor" kind of situation. it was a long term development that was fairly well forcasted by most of the market, and there was no signficant drop in bonds before it started going back north (which would ellude that people were liquidating shorts on the drop) the price action just felt strange.

anyway, i have the feeling that TODAY is the day that the bond market breaks. call me crazy.
Relax and be happy.
well that "feeling" i had must have been indigestion because we are flat after greenspan speech. the speech scared me a bit, as he started talking about letting bubbles take care of themselves. could that mean he is going to stop trying to solve the housing bubble? he could have been talking about oil, i hope he was. cause as ive made clear, i think this whole tightening cycle is about the housing bubble, and if he lets housing "take care of itself" that could mean a pause in rates. i could just be paranoid though
Relax and be happy.
Quoting Isotonic
btw it looks like there was a near retest of 114 today but no break!
sure, rub salt in my wounds

sweet graph!
Relax and be happy.
ahh yes! you know im loving this iso

she is breaking now, i feel gravity pulling hard now!

when i entered in august, this is where i thought the market was. i was 60 days too early.

i bet pimco aint long bonds no more
Relax and be happy.
Quoting Isotonic
THE RUSSELL 2000 HAS FULLY RETRACED THE BEAR MARKET FROM 2000/03...WAKE UP PEOPLE!!!!!!!!!
LOL!!!

yeeeeeah boy!

who was the gang that all agreed two months ago that the US was in a bull market?!? we've been calling some nice shots lately
Relax and be happy.
Quoting merlin
i need to see the 114 level hit again by the end of the month though.
funny, this happened on the last day of the month, just as i needed it to
Relax and be happy.
Quoting merlin
ahh yes! you know im loving this iso

she is breaking now, i feel gravity pulling hard now!

when i entered in august, this is where i thought the market was. i was 60 days too early.

i bet pimco aint long bonds no more
your call last month to jump in looks better every day...

maybe i should of ignored Rob B's advice to test first and just test "expensively" instead!!!!!!

oh well thats "discipline" for ya!!!!!!!
Quoting Isotonic
your call last month to jump in looks better every day...

maybe i should of ignored Rob B's advice to test first and just test "expensively" instead!!!!!!

oh well thats "discipline" for ya!!!!!!!
LOL!

well looking at today, bonds broke the support, but then rebounded. we are essentially at the same spot we were a week ago.

hey man it looks like we a little ahead of ourselves on that russell 2k discussion. did you see what happened this week? the stock markets just kept diving lower and lower, and they werent going slow! gosh, i thought we were in for another black friday today.
Relax and be happy.
this situation is getting kind of shady iso. whats up with the rally today? could it be that bonds bottomed on wednesday? technically speaking, bonds could drop a hellofa lot more, but fundamentally speaking, HOW MUCH WORSE CAN IT GET? shit man, every day you have some fed president shooting off about inflation, CPI around the world is soring bigtime, yet bonds drop in little teenie tiny increments. i just dont get it. either we are in for one heck of a selloff or the bear market is over. i hope its the former. i need confirmation by the end of the month. if i dont get that, im out of this damn position. how long have i been in now? 3 years or something
Relax and be happy.
that was a hell of a reaction today in the treasuries huh iso? i read the minutes and i dont see what everyone is getting so excited about. global inflation is still out of control, and bernanke is NOT going to drop rates like some expect.

btw, i couldnt resist, i had to get back in, shorted a few 10yr. nothing huge, just a little sumthin.
Relax and be happy.
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