Let me set up a hypothetical.
I have a bag of marbles. In the bag are 7 white marbles and 3 red marbles. I ask you to pick a marble out of the bag. I tell you that if you pick a red marble you PAY ME $100, but if you pick a white marble I will PAY YOU $200.
How long would it take for everyone to buy a plane ticket to Las Vegas so that you could play? I think all realize that under these circumstances your mathematical expectation is very positive, and that each and every pick of a marble yields a specific mathematical return to you. After many thousands of marble picks your profit would be very close to this positive expectation known from the beginning.
Is there anybody in this forum who is going to be thinking, "But what if I lose 2, 3, 4, or even 5 times in a row? What if I just keep picking out red marbles? No, nobody thinks this way because the math says it can't happen. Intuitively all of us accept this outcome.
In trading, there are no CERTAIN mathematical probabilities, but we do have history to examine. Through DISCIPLINE in our method we control the size of our losses versus our wins. This will certainly yield a positive mathematical expectation.
So why the reluctance of most traders to stick with a method [any method] when history tells us it will be positive. Why the extreme focus on any particular trade? Why would you buy a plane ticket, in an instant if you thought I was serious, to be here and play the marble game?
FEAR.
Lose the fear of failure. Face the demons with confidence. Everyone looks them in the eye at some point. Trading is not about you, it is about making money. Never forget this point.
Hope you all get something out of the new file.
I have a bag of marbles. In the bag are 7 white marbles and 3 red marbles. I ask you to pick a marble out of the bag. I tell you that if you pick a red marble you PAY ME $100, but if you pick a white marble I will PAY YOU $200.
How long would it take for everyone to buy a plane ticket to Las Vegas so that you could play? I think all realize that under these circumstances your mathematical expectation is very positive, and that each and every pick of a marble yields a specific mathematical return to you. After many thousands of marble picks your profit would be very close to this positive expectation known from the beginning.
Is there anybody in this forum who is going to be thinking, "But what if I lose 2, 3, 4, or even 5 times in a row? What if I just keep picking out red marbles? No, nobody thinks this way because the math says it can't happen. Intuitively all of us accept this outcome.
In trading, there are no CERTAIN mathematical probabilities, but we do have history to examine. Through DISCIPLINE in our method we control the size of our losses versus our wins. This will certainly yield a positive mathematical expectation.
So why the reluctance of most traders to stick with a method [any method] when history tells us it will be positive. Why the extreme focus on any particular trade? Why would you buy a plane ticket, in an instant if you thought I was serious, to be here and play the marble game?
FEAR.
Lose the fear of failure. Face the demons with confidence. Everyone looks them in the eye at some point. Trading is not about you, it is about making money. Never forget this point.
Hope you all get something out of the new file.
![](https://resources.faireconomy.media/images/emojis/64/1f60e.png?v=15.1)