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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #194,661
  • Sep 4, 2009 1:12pm Sep 4, 2009 1:12pm
Quoting dana2802
adess masta neo, jgn la mcm tu...actually im still newbie and still learning and keep learning.
me masta nubie la..Am still learning to..Both of us still learning..
u--> Dana 2802 ---> masta-->masta swing.. i learn a lot from u..thanks..

Got the software but donno how to use it..maybe another time we can YM..Want to sleep..C u @ 154 then 164..

GTG..
  • #194,662
  • Sep 4, 2009 1:14pm Sep 4, 2009 1:14pm
Quoting azibi
Hmm funny you mention this as I have been thinking about it. Altho I am biased short it's every day the same story: mark up on low volume. I hope we collapse Monday/Tuesday do not get me wrong but for the same we see Monday 16500 on low volume Tuesday 16600 on low volume etc etc. I see every day, over a month, a bidder coming in in the afternoon. Always in cable. Most of the time defending a big figure. It isn't being bought actively but the guy is bidding end keeps bidding same price. Where does that come from? I wonder if gbp sells off who is...
we are not talking 3500 or lower dj here , we are talking a correction of a rise of stock indexes that has been driven by 5 stocks

aig
cit and a few others

also s&p p/e right now is 110 of real earnings 2001 it was only 45 ...

so both tehnically and fundmentally us indexes are overvalued,...

even a 38 % retrace on the weekly on dj right now is 1000 points .. think the smart money is just going to keep buying this up for ever.

last 750 pip retrace in dj resulted in drop gj 163 to 147 ....1600 pip

dj weekly was setting up fior a nice evening star , but low volumes on daily yesterday and today have chnaged this outlook ... how ever I think the drop last week was a shot across the bow

for this up move to be valid I would like to see volumes return to normal and the up move to continue....then and only then will i become bullish

FYI TODAY IS THE LOWEST UP DAY ON DJ SINCE JAN 2009....THAT IS NOT BULLISH AT ALL .. BULL TRAP MORE LIKE

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  • #194,663
  • Sep 4, 2009 1:17pm Sep 4, 2009 1:17pm
I'm feeling like everybody is blaming malcolmb. GY is taking some bullish, but we are in friday before closing. Wait up to Tokyo session monday and after London session, you will see if bullish is confirmed or still bearish.
If you resist at heart attack, you will be rich from trading.
  • #194,664
  • Sep 4, 2009 1:19pm Sep 4, 2009 1:19pm
Quoting malcolmb14
1.5500 i mentioned July 12th with upthrust to 1.7000 1st ....look back at post and get it right

target Nov this year .. it still stands ...even lower.

I guess

1) the fact that gu weekly closes under last week gu close is bullish
2) rsx pointing down on weekly bullish
3) no demand bar today ( 2 x up days on low volume bullish)
40 price on weekly under 14 wma bullish

GU dropped 1000 point NO retrace

If 1000 pips is wave 1 and 300 pip reatrcement wave 2 .. imagine the carnage on wave 3 .....

i maintain GU 1.5000 before 1.7300....

china...
There are Cup n Handle Pattern in GU Daily or weekly chart if this valid one..It might be reach 194.xx accroding the deep of the cup..If valid..Maybe @ the end of the year..Who knows..We donno.. My strategy I'll keep buying every dips..
  • #194,665
  • Sep 4, 2009 1:21pm Sep 4, 2009 1:21pm
Quoting malcolmb14
do not forget the other side of the equation

6b is going up on low volume .. no demand . In vsa this is sign of weakness

DX is dropping today but into support on low volume ... this is called low volume test.


for exmaple lets say the market drops next week ....bonds will get stronger and in fact bond traders are known to be better traders than stocks traders .. less speculative. If 10 year bonds break 120 this mean only one thing .. mney being moved from markets to bonds .... stock market down mean YEN crosses down.

also if the pros...
If no demand, how eurogbp drop and how gbpchf fly. I dont trade news but im trade what charts tell me like donfriday said. That day when gj at 62 area everybody said gj will going 167/170 but my self still stick to my plan gj have to pullback to 152 area. And now my plan is still follow at the moment. Thanks for your advice.
  • #194,666
  • Sep 4, 2009 1:22pm Sep 4, 2009 1:22pm
Enjoy the MASSIVE drawdown..

It's Not WHAT You Think, It's what on the charts.




Quoting neozero
There are Cup n Handle Pattern in GU Daily or weekly chart if this valid one..It might be reach 194.xx accroding the deep of the cup..If valid..Maybe @ the end of the year..Who knows..We donno.. My strategy I'll keep buying every dips..
[
  • #194,667
  • Sep 4, 2009 1:27pm Sep 4, 2009 1:27pm
Quoting Ilovefx
I'm feeling like everybody is blaming malcolmb. GY is taking some bullish, but we are in friday before closing. Wait up to Tokyo session monday and after London session, you will see if bullish is confirmed or still bearish.
im not blaiming what malcom said, but i just trade what is chart tell me, i've been plan and still stick to my plan. Thats is why i learn before trade make a plan and use stop lost to protect my acc. No matter how market going i`ll be there.
  • #194,668
  • Sep 4, 2009 1:27pm Sep 4, 2009 1:27pm
Quoting neozero
There are Cup n Handle Pattern in GU Daily or weekly chart if this valid one..It might be reach 194.xx accroding the deep of the cup..If valid..Maybe @ the end of the year..Who knows..We donno.. My strategy I'll keep buying every dips..
you are 100 % correct on the cup and handle forming

however handles can take the form of flags .. the handle has not borken to upside yet so not time to go long yet

lets just say this is a flag and that is what is going to form the handle.... we could get retracement
1.5650 38 %
1.5290 50%
or even 1.4873...

and the cup and handle could still be valid

food for thought ..

I am hold short since 1.6950...still holding unless 1.6600 break then i will take 300 pip profit

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  • #194,669
  • Sep 4, 2009 1:31pm Sep 4, 2009 1:31pm
Quoting malcolmb14
we are not talking 3500 or lower dj here , we are talking a correction of a rise of stock indexes that has been driven by 5 stocks

aig
cit and a few others

also s&p p/e right now is 110 of real earnings 2001 it was only 45 ...

so both tehnically and fundmentally us indexes are overvalued,...

even a 38 % retrace on the weekly on dj right now is 1000 points .. think the smart money is just going to keep buying this up for ever.

last 750 pip retrace in dj resulted in drop gj 163 to 147 ....1600 pip

dj weekly was setting up fior a nice...

Thanks but errr was this mentioned for me?
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  • #194,670
  • Sep 4, 2009 1:32pm Sep 4, 2009 1:32pm
Quoting dana2802
If no demand, how eurogbp drop and how gbpchf fly. I dont trade news but im trade what charts tell me like donfriday said. That day when gj at 62 area everybody said gj will going 167/170 but my self still stick to my plan gj have to pullback to 152 area. And now my plan is still follow at the moment. Thanks for your advice.
Thank you dana2802.

Could you please explain further the pullback and what your plan is at the moment.
None the wiser!
  • #194,671
  • Sep 4, 2009 1:35pm Sep 4, 2009 1:35pm
volumes
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  • #194,672
  • Sep 4, 2009 1:37pm Sep 4, 2009 1:37pm
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This My chart tell me..GJ is Bullish..3SMA has cross below price after 3 years..Last SMA 240 (not 288 @ the chart)had cross @ 2007 (Bearish Signal)..Now it below (Bullish Signal)..Now i need last confirmation @ SMA 288 --> Roadblock @ 163..To cross above it..If we cross above it..This is strong UT i guess..Just imagine it make 3years to cross below the price..But who knows..

i got to sleep..gtg..
  • #194,673
  • Sep 4, 2009 1:41pm Sep 4, 2009 1:41pm
Quoting malcolmb14
you are 100 % correct on the cup and handle forming

however handles can take the form of flags .. the handle has not borken to upside yet so not time to go long yet

lets just say this is a flag and that is what is going to form the handle.... we could get retracement
1.5650 38 %
1.5290 50%
or even 1.4873...

and the cup and handle could still be valid

food for thought ..

I am hold short since 1.6950...still holding unless 1.6600 break then i will take 300 pip profit

Attachment

for a real cup and handle the bottom should base .. be mopre rounded showing a solid base .. like building on a good foundation

GU weekly bottom was V shaped ...

we retraced 50 % of down move ... and this is a bear flag ...

IF this is the case then 1.6000 gives way GU this is also break of bottom of bear flag .

Throwing some fib expansions on this we could have down side targets even into 1.0700....fe 100

think this is insane ..???? i read an article on dialy fx form an EW guy and he showed the same target

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  • #194,674
  • Sep 4, 2009 1:44pm Sep 4, 2009 1:44pm
Quoting naatha
volumes

wide vol up bar on last 4 hour is what ? bullish or bearish in vsa ? also mine looks very different form yours .... mine was on doji .... so sellers

check 5 min cjarts shoirt at 152.30 was clear as day...whole up move since drops back down to test supply is declining on 15
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  • #194,675
  • Sep 4, 2009 1:44pm Sep 4, 2009 1:44pm
Quoting malcolmb14
dj weekly was setting up fior a nice evening star , but low volumes on daily yesterday and today have chnaged this outlook ... how ever I think the drop last week was a shot across the bow
where are you seeing this low volume in terms of GJ?

I've been through 15,1h,4h,daily and cant work out what you are seeing. yes today very low volume but its friday, its nfp day, and its the day before labor day holiday, so low volume not exactly unexpected. and yesterday seems like normal volume on my daily chart.

all i can see on mine is fairly high (but not huge) daily volume on wednesday when the up move started (this was a high churn bar which i believe indicates possible reversal when confirmed by the next bar?).
  • #194,676
  • Sep 4, 2009 1:48pm Sep 4, 2009 1:48pm
Quoting FxClown
Thank you dana2802.

Could you please explain further the pullback and what your plan is at the moment.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...582&page=12975 u can checked here coz chart telling me.
  • #194,677
  • Sep 4, 2009 1:53pm Sep 4, 2009 1:53pm
here is my analysis at the end of the week. i start with weekly chart and go lower.

weekly chart shows that move up is still above main support (or PVP), 147.10 area. we can not talk about a change of trend as long as price stays above this area. manipulated or not, bias is bullish above 146.60.

daily chart shows that, within weekly uptrend, we see a retracement - or a down swing. the point of control (or PVP) for this down swing is 154.85/155.50 area, and as long as price stays below we can't talk about a serious rally and price should fall to test weekly PVP @ 147.10 area.

this is what i see on higher timeframes. h4 and h1 later... or homework for everybody .
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #194,678
  • Sep 4, 2009 1:54pm Sep 4, 2009 1:54pm
Quoting malcolmb14
do not forget I day trade.....I have been short gu since 1.6950 with target1.5500 and lower by Nov this year.

so now prices can move up without volume supporting the move ? is that what you are saying ? there is not volumeo n daily ... this is mark up. simple.

Also everything you read on ew says it is very subjective ..... so how can it be best analysis. There is one exprt on it .i will look him up on weekend that underperformed s&p last 2 years using ew based on calls in his news letter.

vsa never lies ..... never. it showed the buyers...
hi again

well i shouldn't give my opinion about VSA and volume stuff because i never tried them before so i have no right to judge them

but any way u still didn't tell me your turning point . as i said my turning point is 146

what about yours ? 156 perhaps ?
  • #194,679
  • Sep 4, 2009 1:54pm Sep 4, 2009 1:54pm
Quoting ewokuk
where are you seeing this low volume in terms of GJ?

I've been through 15,1h,4h,daily and cant work out what you are seeing. yes today very low volume but its friday, its nfp day, and its the day before labor day holiday, so low volume not exactly unexpected. and yesterday seems like normal volume on my daily chart.

all i can see on mine is fairly high (but not huge) daily volume on wednesday when the up move started (this was a high churn bar which i believe indicates possible reversal when confirmed by the next bar?).

BINGO !!!!

now think about that also note vol on my chart yesterday

mark up is what i reckon ..unemployment up not down and nfp another 250 k jobs lost .. 20 months straight of losses

level to watch is 153 zone ....

we have had bearish volume divergence GJ , GU , dj last 2 days

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  • #194,680
  • Sep 4, 2009 1:56pm Sep 4, 2009 1:56pm
Quoting Scrat
msniper, here is a chart for g-u. weekly. quite a resistance in this area, don't you think?
i will not accept GU only if i say it in 1.7000 level

this weekly chart and weekly diverengece could take days and weeks before even it play out

look at GU i think its creating a new inverted H&S in 4h chart ( i just woke up too lazy ) hehe
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