DislikedPeople are obviously positioning themselves for a rise in the interest differential between the $ and yen. That seems to be the only reason for the yens big declines these last 3 months even on the back of very bad USD data.
I'm actually gonna be asking if the rate expectations is reflective of reality. 30 day Future funds rates have already fully priced in a 75 bps hike by Dec08 and a 175 bps hike by Dec09. Can anybody here realistically think that the Feds will hike by that much that soon? If that truly happens then proponents of the V shaped recession will be blown out of the water with the US economy sinking into a deep U shaped recession that is 15x more wide in shape than it is tall.Ignored
The Chonchy