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A Disciplined 15min method

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  • First Post: Oct 27, 2012 11:32pm Oct 27, 2012 11:32pm
  •  Tw0eleven
  • Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Feed The Piggy With Pips! | 1,772 Posts
Can you control yourself and remain disciplined in your trading? Can you wait for the right setups and skip the questionable ones? Can you close a losing trade for a small loss instead of letting it turn into a big loss? Then this method might be for you.

This is a variation of a 4hr method I use to use a couple years ago...and there are a lot of similarities and some slight changes. Below is the general setup and rules. And I use the word rules loosely because they aren't hard/strict rules to follow...more like guidelines. But in an ever changing market, one has to be flexible. What we are trying to do overall is put the odds of the trade in our favor in the simplest way possible on the 15min chart.

Look for the Obvious trade...DO NOT TAKE the trades you are unsure about and gamble your money away!!!


Chart setup
1) I use the 15min chart, I find it's pretty reliable for day trading and typically gives you one or two good setups a day per pair.
2) Plot a 12, 50, 200, 800 ema in whatever color you want on your charts.
3) Use a stochastics indicator with settings of (K period 5, D period 3, Slowing 3, and MA method of Simple). Put a 20 and 80 level on there...those are your references for oversold/overbought areas.

Looking for Trades is as simple as 1-2-3...
1) PRICE ACTION...basically I look two things: A) Candle sticks patterns: Pinbars/Hammers and Tweezers/RailRoad tracks. These candlestick patterns basically tell me that the market is trying to fake you out by going one way, but then reversing and going the other. B) Price Patterns: Head & Shoulders pattern or the M & W patterns(sometimes called double tops/bottoms). These patterns help me recognize when price might be reversing.

Also, you need to have a general idea of how many pips price normally moves in a day(ADR) so you can have an idea if price will continue moving in the same direction or if it has run it's course for the day and may start consolidating or reverse. And finally, Divergence...that can help you spot a possible reversal coming.

2) MOVING AVERAGES...you want to see how price reacts around the higher MA's like the 800, 200 and 50....these can act as support/resistance areas. And I like to use the 12ema to stay in a winning trade...or if price gets too much seperation form it, it could give you a hint that price is getting ready to reverse.

3) Stochastics...you want stochastics to help give you an idea where price is overbought or oversold. This is just a SUPPORTING indicator to help keep you out of bad trades. Example: If you are looking to go short based on Price Action and the Moving Averages...but stochastics is down around the 20 level, you should probably skip that trade as it most likely doesn't have a high probability of success.

And that's basically it...it's really just 1-2-3...PA, MA, Stochastics. You have to already have an understanding of reading candlestick patterns and chart patterns. Also, you MUST use all three components together. If you don't have confirmation of all three telling you to go short or long, then you are most likely going to have a losing trade. So Stay Disciplined!
Some additional tips: Take a look at the 1hr, 4hr and Daily charts every so often so you can spot some major support/resistance areas(just look left...that should be obvious areas). Also, get a feel for the overall trend of the market...if you see an uptrend/upchannel....then your best trade, for example, would be a long setup near that trendline or the bottom of the upchannel. Just use common sense. If you see a consolidation range on the 4hr chart...don't go long near the top of that range and don't go short near the bottom....the better trades would be long near the bottom of the range and short near the top. You will only be wrong once(when price finally breaks out of that range)...and it will only be one small loss!


Pairs I Use
This method has been tested on GU, EU, EJ, AU, pairs...I have NOT tested it on any others.

Money Management
( word of caution...this is what works for me...please feel free to adjust your Target Prices and Stoplosses for what suits you).
1) I set an initial emergency stop loss of 50pips in case the market does something weird like surprise news, flash crash, or if you lose power for a while...at least you won't blow your account.
2) My Target price is set at 50pips...although most trading profits are taking between 20-50pips.
3) You should exit your trade on the first candle that closes on the opposite side of your entry candle if your Target Price has not been hit within a couple hours. With the proper entry, your losses should be around 30pips or less.
4) Stay away from HUGE candles...typically you want to enter on candles that are 30pips or less...give or take a few pips.
5) Stay away from major news like NFP, interest rates, or anything that could create large swings in price. You're looking for high quality trades...you are NOT suppose to be gambling your money away....again, this takes Discipline!

As you can see, with a proper entry...my risk-reward is roughly 1:1!
Lets get to some examples....
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl 15min discipline method.tpl   2 KB | 540 downloads
  • Post #2
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  • Oct 27, 2012 11:33pm Oct 27, 2012 11:33pm
  •  Tw0eleven
  • Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Feed The Piggy With Pips! | 1,772 Posts
W pattern
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  • Post #3
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  • Oct 27, 2012 11:34pm Oct 27, 2012 11:34pm
  •  Tw0eleven
  • Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Feed The Piggy With Pips! | 1,772 Posts
M pattern
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  • Post #4
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  • Oct 27, 2012 11:35pm Oct 27, 2012 11:35pm
  •  Tw0eleven
  • Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Feed The Piggy With Pips! | 1,772 Posts
Head and Shoulders
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  • Post #5
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  • Oct 27, 2012 11:36pm Oct 27, 2012 11:36pm
  •  Tw0eleven
  • Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Feed The Piggy With Pips! | 1,772 Posts
Head and Shoulders...have to know when to take a loss!
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  • Post #6
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  • Oct 27, 2012 11:36pm Oct 27, 2012 11:36pm
  •  Tw0eleven
  • Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Feed The Piggy With Pips! | 1,772 Posts
Have to know when NOT to trade too...
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  • Post #7
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  • Oct 28, 2012 1:09am Oct 28, 2012 1:09am
  •  WinwinFx
  • | Joined Jan 2010 | Status: Member | 276 Posts
Hi TwOeleven,

Nice thread, keep going, will visit often to learn your setup.

Have a Good Day !!!

Cheers !!!
winwin
 
 
  • Post #8
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  • Oct 28, 2012 5:35am Oct 28, 2012 5:35am
  •  dug_forex
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Member | 58 Posts
Thankyou for sharing this system. You put it really well. Your opening comment about having the control at low timeframes to only take the best setups is absolutely spot on.
 
 
  • Post #9
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  • Oct 28, 2012 5:41am Oct 28, 2012 5:41am
  •  dug_forex
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Member | 58 Posts
Hi

Do you have a preferred time of day to trade? IE during the London or NY session?

Also

What is your favorite setup ie. Head and Shoulders?
 
 
  • Post #10
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  • Oct 28, 2012 8:08am Oct 28, 2012 8:08am
  •  Tw0eleven
  • Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Feed The Piggy With Pips! | 1,772 Posts
Quoting dug_forex
Disliked
Hi

Do you have a preferred time of day to trade? IE during the London or NY session?

Also

What is your favorite setup ie. Head and Shoulders?
Ignored
The best times to trade are London session and early-to mid US session. I would avoid late US session and Asian session as there typically isn't much movement.

I actually prefer the M and W pattern setups over the H&S...although both work, it's just easier for me to spot the M&W(sometimes called double tops/bottoms...and you can trade Triple tops/bottoms too).

On a side note...after I posted this thread, I took a look at some other people who have posted 15min trading methods recently. If you take a look at them, you should notice one common thing about them all. Everyone one of them lists Price Action as the key to their success!!! The additional indicators(whether it's just one, two or more of them) are there just for additional support to help you take good trades or stay out of bad trades! I have no problem if you choose not to trade this method and want to try someone else's. The goal on FF is for everyone to be successful, but in order to do that you have to trade a method that YOU are comfortable with and that YOU can remain disciplined with.

And one comment about news...I personally feel the news is there just to confuse traders. I would agree that news helps to move the market...but you have to look past the actually numbers and avoid the thinking that "if the US housing numbers are better than expected then USD will get stronger" or "if Euro's PPI is better than expected Euro will get strong." That's all crap...the market will do what it wants when it wants...Look at how price sets up around/during/just after the news and trade PRICE ACTION, NOT news numbers. And as always, avoid the major news releases such as NFP, interest rates, etc... Those are typically volatile times where price can spike both directions and take out stops fairly easy!

Happy Trading!
 
 
  • Post #11
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  • Oct 28, 2012 10:05am Oct 28, 2012 10:05am
  •  Loadedgun
  • | Membership Revoked | Joined Sep 2010 | 4,200 Posts
Hi 2/11,

Been around rather briefly - will be back again and again. Cheers and all the best.

LG
 
 
  • Post #12
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  • Oct 28, 2012 10:30am Oct 28, 2012 10:30am
  •  GPips
  • Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Member | 399 Posts
Great start to a great thread Tw0eleven!

If I didn't know any better I'd think you are Steve Mauro. lol

A no nonsense trading Methodology & this shit works!!!

Every new trader should follow this thread.

Keep up the great work here!
Find The Pain Points On Your Chart & Trade Off Those Levels
 
 
  • Post #13
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  • Oct 28, 2012 10:48am Oct 28, 2012 10:48am
  •  Tw0eleven
  • Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Feed The Piggy With Pips! | 1,772 Posts
Quoting GPips
Disliked
Great start to a great thread Tw0eleven!

If I didn't know any better I'd think you are Steve Mauro. lol

A no nonsense trading Methodology & this shit works!!!

Every new trader should follow this thread.

Keep up the great work here!
Ignored

Nope, no Steve Mauro here. Just tired of reading so many people on the news threads complaining about price going down when news was good or price going up when news was bad. It's all crap! Over my years of trading and many hard lessons learned...I just believe that you need 2 things to trade...1)price action is all you need to trade and the rest is all noise and 2) self discipline.

In fact, you don't even really need to follow my method if you don't like it or have something you are more confortable with. As long as you can follow price action and stay disciplined, you should come out ahead.
 
 
  • Post #14
  • Quote
  • Oct 28, 2012 10:57am Oct 28, 2012 10:57am
  •  o man
  • | Membership Revoked | Joined Oct 2011 | 42 Posts
Discipline is the hardest thing in trading, but we can practice our discipline with a small step. Great system + no discipline = zero. Tw0eleven, thanks for shared


-------
fibocalc v31
 
 
  • Post #15
  • Quote
  • Oct 28, 2012 11:32am Oct 28, 2012 11:32am
  •  GPips
  • Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Member | 399 Posts
Quoting Tw0eleven
Disliked
Nope, no Steve Mauro here. Just tired of reading so many people on the news threads complaining about price going down when news was good or price going up when news was bad. It's all crap!
Ignored
Damn, there you go again... are you sure you are not Steve? Ha ha, just kidding man!

Actually Tw0eleven, truer words could not be said.

As a wise mentor once told me "The news is all Bull Shit!

I hope many here listen closely and learn these valuable tips that you are sharing.
Find The Pain Points On Your Chart & Trade Off Those Levels
 
 
  • Post #16
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  • Oct 28, 2012 4:49pm Oct 28, 2012 4:49pm
  •  luckychaplin
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Member | 4 Posts
just for clarification, does your "1 pip" mean 0.00001? (E/U pair).
 
 
  • Post #17
  • Quote
  • Oct 28, 2012 6:10pm Oct 28, 2012 6:10pm
  •  Tw0eleven
  • Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Feed The Piggy With Pips! | 1,772 Posts
Quoting GPips
Disliked
Damn, there you go again... are you sure you are not Steve? Ha ha, just kidding man!

Actually Tw0eleven, truer words could not be said.

As a wise mentor once told me "The news is all Bull Shit!

I hope many here listen closely and learn these valuable tips that you are sharing.
Ignored
Perhaps one day I'll be as successful as Steve.
 
 
  • Post #18
  • Quote
  • Oct 28, 2012 6:11pm Oct 28, 2012 6:11pm
  •  Tw0eleven
  • Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Feed The Piggy With Pips! | 1,772 Posts
Quoting luckychaplin
Disliked
just for clarification, does your "1 pip" mean 0.00001? (E/U pair).
Ignored
1pip is 0.0001
 
 
  • Post #19
  • Quote
  • Oct 29, 2012 5:14am Oct 29, 2012 5:14am
  •  benjoe reyes
  • | Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Member | 1 Post
hi there Tw0eleven

could you also post your 4hr method?

thanks
 
 
  • Post #20
  • Quote
  • Oct 29, 2012 8:11am Oct 29, 2012 8:11am
  •  Tw0eleven
  • Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Feed The Piggy With Pips! | 1,772 Posts
Quoting benjoe reyes
Disliked
hi there Tw0eleven

could you also post your 4hr method?

thanks
Ignored

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=226349
 
 
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