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Buying FX Forecasts.

  • #1
  • First Post: Jul 1, 2007 6:37pm Jul 1, 2007 6:37pm
Hi guys love the site. A question for all you experienced traders out there. Have any of you ever bought FX forecasts of anybody else? Would you consider doing so? I have only been trading FX for a short amount of time with mixed results. A couple of friends of mine tell me they have been buying their FX forecasts of a guy for almost 2yrs and seem quite happy with him. Is this something that is common practice out there in the FX world? I look forward to your replies.
  • #2
  • Jul 3, 2007 3:14pm Jul 3, 2007 3:14pm
From the lack of replies I take it that this is something that people don't or wouldn't do.
  • #3
  • Jul 3, 2007 3:50pm Jul 3, 2007 3:50pm
Didn't see the thread before, sorry. I've tried FXToday.
  • #4
  • Jul 3, 2007 10:12pm Jul 3, 2007 10:12pm
Quoting ragingbull94mtx
Didn't see the thread before, sorry. I've tried FXToday.
Thanks for your reply ragingbull. Was it successful?
  • #5
  • Jul 4, 2007 9:54am Jul 4, 2007 9:54am
For me, yes. The only problem was the time difference and schedule. In order to take advantage of their forecasts I had to get up at all hours of morning (~3am, ~6am EST). And when they released their trade of the day, I was on my way to class. Great service, though, otherwise...
  • #6
  • Jul 4, 2007 6:07pm Jul 4, 2007 6:07pm
Quoting ragingbull94mtx
For me, yes. The only problem was the time difference and schedule. In order to take advantage of their forecasts I had to get up at all hours of morning (~3am, ~6am EST). And when they released their trade of the day, I was on my way to class. Great service, though, otherwise...

Very interesting. I am not going to have a lot of time for my trading in the near future and my friends suggested using the forecaster they use. That way I can still be involved in trading without taking up too much of my time. I may give it a trial run.

I am based in Australia and we also have some time issues. During the day we have the Asian market, which is relatively quiet most of the time. Early evening gets busier when the European market kicks in, followed by the US market through the early hours of the morning. I imagine it would be tough putting all your trust into forecasts you have not been involved in formulating. once again, thanks for your input ragingbull.
  • #7
  • Jul 5, 2007 2:07pm Jul 5, 2007 2:07pm
Quoting GJP
From the lack of replies I take it that this is something that people don't or wouldn't do.
I have not ever used a service like the one you speak of. I am assuming that you are talking about a service provider that will tell you when to place trades based upon some proprietary method/system/strategy in exchange for a monthly or yearly fee.

My reason for not buying such a service is twofold. First, at face value, I do not trust such a service. If I had a wonderful trading system or method that I thought worthy of being consistently profitable, the last thing I would do would be to let other people trade it in exchange for a fee. I would be the one trading it! If a profitable system was in my grasp, there would have to be some serious evidence that the subscription fees would outweigh the profits I could gain by trading the system on its own. Or I would trade other people's money for a percentage of the profits.

In addition, I imagine that if my system was REALLY good, I would expect the right people to find me. It wouldn't be too long before somebody noticed that I'd moved into a big house in an expensive part of town and was driving a shiny new Italian sportscar. At some point, somebody eventually is going to find out I was a trader - and a good one! - and money would come to me. I doubt I would need a website to sell a subscription to people who have no clue what they are doing. But, this is put conjecture on my part (or maybe a bit of wishful thinking).

Second, I'm stubborn. I want to be the one to figure out how to trade this market. I'm willing to put in the time and effort to come up with my own trading style. I'm hardwired to figure this thing out on my own - for better or worse.

You mentioned that you have a couple of friends who trade with such a service and they have for a couple of years. I would caution you on the information you're getting from them. I have no doubt that your friends are of high character, but in my experience individuals do not like to mention that they have lost money in an endeavor - unless they can clearly assign blame to another person or party. People like to mention they have a financial advisor or broker and things of the sort, it makes it sound like they are doing something interesting and profitable with their money. Money makes people do and say strange things.

For instance, nearly everyone I've met that has gone to Las Vegas comes back saying something different (more positive) about their winnings than what actually happened. When a friend of mine says he won big in Vegas, usually he either made a bit or lost a nominal amount, or broke nearly even. When I talk to somebody who says they lost a bit, usually it means that they took a pretty good hit. And this continues, it seems that people I talk to who have gone to Vegas boost their performance when talking about their gambling results. Why? I think that we do not like to admit our poor performances and instead paint a rosier picture of the "facts". Who wants to talk about a trip to Vegas and say they lost? I continue to watch people gamble in casinos and notice a trend. Casinos become more numerous, larger, grander, while people come back from Vegas with t-shirts and stories, but no significant increase in net worth. If there was a killing to be made, I'd expect the opposite - casinos to go bust while gamblers to retire and move to areas of the country which allow regulated gaming.

So, what does this have to do with a trading service? Until you see actual results, take anything and everything with a skeptical mindset. Nobody likes to admit to their friends that they're paying for a service that is costing them money and not delivering consistent profits. I'd speculate that the trading service runs pretty hot and cold, enough that some money is being made, but not enough that a subscriber would make enough to retire. In a few years, do you still want to be paying some third-party to be telling you when to place a trade? If so, go with the subscription. If you want to be calling the shots, I'd start a demo right away and get your hands dirty.

I hope this was insightful - any comments or questions are always welcome.

-=DAVE=-
  • #8
  • Jul 5, 2007 3:55pm Jul 5, 2007 3:55pm
Quoting megadave5000
I have not ever used a service like the one you speak of. I am assuming that you are talking about a service provider that will tell you when to place trades based upon some proprietary method/system/strategy in exchange for a monthly or yearly fee.

My reason for not buying such a service is twofold. First, at face value, I do not trust such a service. If I had a wonderful trading system or method that I thought worthy of being consistently profitable, the last thing I would do would be to let other people trade it in exchange for a fee. I would be the one trading it! If a profitable system was in my grasp, there would have to be some serious evidence that the subscription fees would outweigh the profits I could gain by trading the system on its own. Or I would trade other people's money for a percentage of the profits.

In addition, I imagine that if my system was REALLY good, I would expect the right people to find me. It wouldn't be too long before somebody noticed that I'd moved into a big house in an expensive part of town and was driving a shiny new Italian sportscar. At some point, somebody eventually is going to find out I was a trader - and a good one! - and money would come to me. I doubt I would need a website to sell a subscription to people who have no clue what they are doing. But, this is put conjecture on my part (or maybe a bit of wishful thinking).

Second, I'm stubborn. I want to be the one to figure out how to trade this market. I'm willing to put in the time and effort to come up with my own trading style. I'm hardwired to figure this thing out on my own - for better or worse.

You mentioned that you have a couple of friends who trade with such a service and they have for a couple of years. I would caution you on the information you're getting from them. I have no doubt that your friends are of high character, but in my experience individuals do not like to mention that they have lost money in an endeavor - unless they can clearly assign blame to another person or party. People like to mention they have a financial advisor or broker and things of the sort, it makes it sound like they are doing something interesting and profitable with their money. Money makes people do and say strange things.

For instance, nearly everyone I've met that has gone to Las Vegas comes back saying something different (more positive) about their winnings than what actually happened. When a friend of mine says he won big in Vegas, usually he either made a bit or lost a nominal amount, or broke nearly even. When I talk to somebody who says they lost a bit, usually it means that they took a pretty good hit. And this continues, it seems that people I talk to who have gone to Vegas boost their performance when talking about their gambling results. Why? I think that we do not like to admit our poor performances and instead paint a rosier picture of the "facts". Who wants to talk about a trip to Vegas and say they lost? I continue to watch people gamble in casinos and notice a trend. Casinos become more numerous, larger, grander, while people come back from Vegas with t-shirts and stories, but no significant increase in net worth. If there was a killing to be made, I'd expect the opposite - casinos to go bust while gamblers to retire and move to areas of the country which allow regulated gaming.

So, what does this have to do with a trading service? Until you see actual results, take anything and everything with a skeptical mindset. Nobody likes to admit to their friends that they're paying for a service that is costing them money and not delivering consistent profits. I'd speculate that the trading service runs pretty hot and cold, enough that some money is being made, but not enough that a subscriber would make enough to retire. In a few years, do you still want to be paying some third-party to be telling you when to place a trade? If so, go with the subscription. If you want to be calling the shots, I'd start a demo right away and get your hands dirty.

I hope this was insightful - any comments or questions are always welcome.

-=DAVE=-
You make some interesting points Dave. Apparently these guys pay a yearly subscription. I am also of the same mindset as you and wonder why someone who was a successful trader would sell their forecasts. My friends assure me that this guys forecasts are correct a lot of the time. They assure me that they are making more money now than they were trading themselves.

I think your right when you say people always like to give the impression that there system of gambling / trading is successful. I have never come across anybody who said they had a bad holiday. I know I have. Human nature I suppose. I have been down the demo road and I am trading live now. It is far more interesting and rewarding (if successful) for sure. Testing and developing your own system does require a lot of time though. Thanks for your thoughts Dave.
  • #9
  • Last Post: Jul 5, 2007 8:43pm Jul 5, 2007 8:43pm
Quoting GJP
You make some interesting points Dave. Apparently these guys pay a yearly subscription. I am also of the same mindset as you and wonder why someone who was a successful trader would sell their forecasts. My friends assure me that this guys forecasts are correct a lot of the time. They assure me that they are making more money now than they were trading themselves.

I think your right when you say people always like to give the impression that there system of gambling / trading is successful. I have never come across anybody who said they had a bad holiday. I know I have. Human nature I suppose. I have been down the demo road and I am trading live now. It is far more interesting and rewarding (if successful) for sure. Testing and developing your own system does require a lot of time though. Thanks for your thoughts Dave.
You are welcome - thank you for your kind words!

Best of luck!

-=DAVE=-
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