GLJ

My Journal.

Keeping emotion to a minimum, I intend to post my observations concerning the EUR/USD at my leisure. Occasionally there will be some banter concerning the AUD/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, and USD/CHF.

My goal. Understand and improve my decision making.

CHANGE:
I will be posting my 1min/5min trades from 10/15/12 until i stop decide to stop. I will be trading the Eur/Usd exclusively. My trading style will be entries on SR flips following the immediate trend and the usual entry on SD levels.

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April 15th, 2013

Journalizing an "idea" that i have. Going from observation to creation.

Following the Eur/Usd and the Eur/Jpy, the goal is the same goal everyone has. Pick places that price will bounce.

So here's the playing field.
Pairs: EJ, EU
Time: Price must "respect" these areas between the times of 9am and 12pm est

changed from - Can only place a maximum of 2 lines above price and 2 lines below price at 9am per pair.
changed to - Can place as many lines as i like. Explained on Page 11 post 155.

Added: If price is hovering in close proximity to a line at 9am then that line does not count towards the line totals.
Thats it.

Couple of things i want to do with this.
1 possibly add to my returns.
2 recreate a habit of consistancy when it comes to trading. Been pretty damn busy this year and my trading reflects this.
3 forward test an idea and see what type of things come up mentally while doing this.

Most important is the consistancy. The results don't matter as much as building a habit of continually working towards my goal.
I'm curious to see where this takes me.

starts here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...34#post6605834

I play pool. If i miss a shot, i replay the shot as if i made it after taking the proper steps. I do this over and over until its second nature to think of me making the shot. I'd say this is the key to my success in pool. I'm considering buying a trophy case because my bookshelf isn't big enough. Mental rehersal of proper technique and emotional control is the key to my game.

I'm starting with a concentration in proper technique. I'll be observing from Mar to the current date. On the charts hindsight is 20/20, i want 20/10 foresight. Lets see what i can maintain realistcally.

Who knows what i know. We'll see what i can discern from the charts.

Trades i didn't take due to time of day or scheduling.

Chart got a little sloppy. Only keeping the lines that matter.

Bad decision.
Short term down trend.
I could have entered with the trend on with a retrace entry but i was not infront of the screen at the time it was available.
Took a trade that my rules specifically say not to take.
-8 pips.

Traded in the right direction this time around.

Been under the weather lately. Haven't been able to take many trades. Maybe that's a good thing.

Simple non detailed MM explanation.

Static risk of 2.5% over 25 pips which means .1% per pip.
Static take profit of 100 pips which is the same as 10%.
Adjust lots/units on the 1st trading day of the week according to account balance.
The basic side of money management with a little bit of trade management.

Nice trading! Watching your journal with interest!

Thank you for your interest!

I'm a bit weary of getting a fat head from the good trades i've had. I don't want it to effect my decision making. Trends build confidence but channels can chop you up.

At work, can't watch the trade like i should otherwise, i'd trail it till 100 pips.
+65 pips

This mornings trade.



When i set this stop i was looking for any reason to get to BE. We're all afforded the same opportunities in the market. It's up to us to keep our losses small so we don't hurt our profits.

May 2012 Gain/Loss

Week 1 - EUR - May 2nd - 100 - +10.0%
Week 1 - EUR - May 3rd - 33 - +3.3%

Week 2 - EUR - May 8th - 54 - 5.4%

Week 3 - AUD - May 15th - 94 - 9.4%
Week 3 - AUD - May 16th - 20 - 2.0%

Week 4 - EUR - May 22nd - (8) - (0.8)%
Week 4 - EUR - May 22nd - 53 - 5.3%
Week 4 - EUR - May 24th - 75 - 7.5%

Week 5 - EUR - May 30th - 65 - 6.5%
Week 5 - EUR - May 31st - 34 - 3.4%

Monthly Gain Compounded Weekly: 63.75%

I have a theory about market movements. If price moves then there is a belief that price will go in that direction, people are taking profits, or there's a fakeout or stop run for larger player entires.

If Fundamental analysis leads majority of the money to sell then the general sentiment is down. What does that look like on the charts? A wave that moves lower and lower. If 60% believe price is too high then 60% of the time price will move down. If 40% believe price is too low then 40% of the time price will move up. Simple stuff no?

If people are taking profits you'll see what people like to call a correction wave or you'll see some channeling. This usually looks like a move that has paused or reversed for a bit.

Fakeouts and stop runs are my favorite. They generally happen around technical areas of interest. Often times when price will shoot past a line right into your stop only to reverse and go in the direction you thought it would, it's just someone big entering the market where they can get their orders filled. They are my favorite because the resulting entry causes price to move in one direction heavily. Only problem is these are hard to spot and don't usually happen during my screen time.

Best thing of all this is that it's not an either or situation. There is always some degree of all 3 of these happening at all times during the market. My job is to look for which way the majority is going and enter after profit taking or after the minority have over extended themselves.

But this only covers speculators. It doesn't cover the multinational corporation who needs to make sure they don't take a loss on supply purchases from different countries due to fluctuating currencies or the company that has employees all over the world and needs to pay them in the local $. But that i leave to the fundy guys to handle.

Truthfuly there's nothing significant about the grey lines i place on my charts if my bias is correct. They're more like a placebo to a good trade. Every one of the winners i took on the EUR would have resulted in +100 pips if i had just held and waited for my bias to change.

Instead of May being a 63% gain it should be a 110% gain. I'm in no rush but i haven't reached that sweet spot in my trading where i believe i'm doing my best.

Could you link up your trade explorer with your journal please ? Thanks. :-)

Nope. Read at your own peril. I'm not giving advice for people to use as they trade. This is a journal for me to get my thoughts together to solidify my trading style in order to go full time eventually. Maybe right before i go full time i'll open an account, start a thread detailing my strategy, and link a trade explorer. But for now i won't.

And besides i don't trade from just 1 account so a trade explorer won't show all my trades.

If you do see flaws or have doubts you'll always be welcome to voice your opinion.

Lets see if i can get in before this ends.