Time to get serious!

***UPDATE - 6th of March 2012***
I have reorganised my trading, because I was lacking a perspective in terms of where price is and where it is heading in the bigger picture.
I've started to explore topics as MTF analysis, support and resistance areas, longer term trading, supply and demand zones, confluence and so on.
After some time of doing that, I've decided to start trading daily charts based on price action and confluence.
A good source of infomation about this kind of trading is:
james16 chart thread Huge thread about PA trading
B.S. trading with Kenneth Lee Great source on supply and demand
Beyond the candles PA with emphasis on the use of monthly and weekly levels on the daily chart.
Good blog by ghous. He does a great sum-up of his trading approach and how newbies should start out.

Good stuff I've found also on Nial Fuller's page

Worth having alook at is the Basic candle stick pattern video series by Lance Beggs. His page in general has good info for beginners.

Price action is the main factor which my trades are based on.
Additionally I have an ADR and round number indy.
I've changed some MA's over time and added an indy here and there, but this is just for confimation.

Below is my initial post. The price action posts start from post 15 on.

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Yeah, thats right.

Im a novice trader - in the forex game for some 3 months - and I've decided its enough with changing systems, timeframes, strategies... every second day, while manically downloading the next top shit indicator.

I have chosen my trading system, I have defined my entry, exit and money management rules and I will f**king stick to them.

The purpose of this journal is to post and analyse my trades. It will also serve as the place where I have to document and justify any changes I bring to my system. And last but not least, it will, hopefully, yield some advice from experienced traders.

The system I will trade is X-Man's super symple system from this forum.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=327972

My thanks go out to X-Man for sharing it and actively managing his topic.
Props go out also to emmanuel7788 and Phx62 for their insightfull and patient contributions to the topic.

I will trade the 30 min chart
My main pair is EUR/USD but I'll also have an eye on EUR/JPY
I will trade the London session
My lot size is max 2% of my account and calculated with Babypips' position size calculator
My SL is at the last swing high/low or at a certain ATR based distance.
My TP is: first half between +20 and +30 (depending on momentum) and second half manually managed till I think its maxed out.

Entry conditions vary a bit, but generally I need to see RSI cross over MBL (on the TDI indy) and PA which confirms the direction.
There also have to be a sufficent distance to the next S/R, Pivot, mayor MA...

I guess thats enough info for now, so I'll finish the first post with my new mantra:

Let the trade come to you.

One trade taken
TP1 +24
TP2 +35

Asian session brought the pair up to the resistance area. Early in the London session it started to retreat. I was planing a short entry and waiting till my condition are met. Few hours later, when RSI crossed MBL I've entered.

Price wasnt moving really fast but it crawled down to my first TP in a few hours. I then aimed for my 2nd TP around the daily pivot. It almost reached it, retreated a bit and stagnated then in the area.
Because of lack of time, I've decided to take my 2nd TP with 35.

A successfull day for me, I've managed to wait for the proper setup and took profit at appropriate areas.

Good luck sir. I look forward to watching the progression of this journal.

Very good point. Stick to one system and learn it inside and out. Very good point you made.

I do like the TDI indicator. I used to use it back in the day. It's a fascinating indicator when used properly can really help out making sure your on the right end of the trade among other things.

Happy Trading

Jeremy

Tnx for the kind words mr. Moore

One trade taken:
2/3 TP at +26
1/3 TP at +49

Asian session was very narrow till Frankfurt opened, where the low aka support got established. Price didnt go through and formed 2 pullback candles before turning and moving up; also RSI crossed MBL.
This hapend just before LO so I was a bit cautious, because it could have been a fakey or pullback before continuing down.

But I decided to stick to my rules and entered long early in the session.
My first TP was aimed at the 200 EMA on 1H timeframe. Price reached this point 10 mins before german ZEW news release, so I've decided to exit with 2/3 of my positon, to not get caught in a spike.
News came out positive, price broke through 200 EMA and I was aiming for daily pivot as my final TP level.
Momentum began to lose steam some 10 pips before pivot, so I monitored it for some while and decided I'm a very happy noob and closed with +49.

A smooth day today, I'm happy with my decissions.

Good trade. I was actually asleep during the 70+Pip EUR/USD rally. I still have a bearish outlook for the pair. Wishing I was up so I could have added to my short positions

Your targets were spot on using the 200MA and the Central Pivot point as possible places where price will stall and knowing "when" to get out of a trade instead of getting too greedy. A good choice indeed as price has since given back most its gains from earlier.

Regards

Jeremy

I appreciate your input Jeremy.
If you dont mind... what do you think about the following thoughts? You know the TDI yourself.


Was thinking about todays pullback and me not trading it, because there was no RSI over MBL cross.
There was a beautiful bounce from the daily pivot and then it went south till this mornings low (support).

My backtesting said, I have to wait for an entry until I see RSI over MBL (green over yellow). If I enter at RSI over signal line (green over red) then I have most of the time a better entry, but often also many fake outs.
BUT, there were situations, where it was legitimate to enter allready at this cross, where you did not have to wait.
It was always the case, when price reched a high/low and then sharply moved into the direction, forming a V-shape, as seen today.

So I have to pay more attention to S/R zones and PA and not rely that much on the TDI. At least not always.
Cause today, there was really a textbook example of a high probability setup for such a scenario. But my focus on the TDI made my blind for it.

We had the Euro rising against the main trend, we saw it lose steam while approaching the daily pivot resistance, we saw a double rejection at the daily pivot and also, the TDI cross which was pretty steep. Not only green over red but at green over red and blue, which according to Dean Malone, is a strong "end of move" signal.


But in the end I've made my pips today.
I seem to have a solid system, so I should grab a beer and watch some damn football and not wine on the internet

One trade taken:
1/3 TP at +24
2/3 TP at +61

Price went quite strongly up during asian session and established a high at Frankfurt open.
It then went down and my fingers itched to enter but I've controled myself (no MBL cross yet). Yeeeey
We saw a pullback to the asian high where there was a good entry posibility IMO.
I didnt do it however, cause for now I want to test how the MBL cross theory will go.

I have entered when the ascending triangle was breached and RSI almost broke MBL.
Price was close to the daily pivot, but I was pretty sure we will go through, because of overall downtrend + divergence.

First profit taken at yesterdays consolidation area for +24.
I had to leave my computer then and when I've returned price just bounced back from the S1 level. Cause I didnt have time to monitor it further I've closed for +62. I would have exited allready at S1 otherwise and baked some more pips.

I'm happy I didnt pull the trigger at the first decline of the price, when London opened. My SL wouldnt be hit, but I would definetely be nervous and angry with myself.
I predicted the trend well and took profit at reasonable levels.

Im starting to get confident

p.s. my broker had a server breakdown and some candles are missing in my trade screenshot. Thats why I've atached another pic, where the PA is correct.

Two trades taken.

1st -27
2nd -45

We are in a downtrend and I've asumed we dont have enough sellers to move the price lower. I was looking for a long as a retracement in the main trend.
MBL was low, RSI and signal allready at London open above it. I went long and set a SL 5 pips below the last low. I wasnt to sure of this trade and while it was probably acceptable to take, it was not good at all to use my maximum lot size.
What followed was a nerv wrecking range period which in the end just managed to trigger my SL.
A SL of 35 would have been sufficent.

I then, so stupidly, came to the conclusion that this must be the downtrend continuation and went short. And got stop out, when some 2 hours later the real retracemnt move started.
Its clearly visible, that this was anything else, but a clear brake of support. Even ignoring the other factors favoring a long it is a bad entry.
http://shrani.si/t/9/Xa/4tEfNAQW/172.jpg

Then I was thinking about taking the long when I saw the first sharp move up, but I was pissed with myself and decided to end the day.

There was also no break of the tight volatility bands, or brake of asian range, so both entries are additionaly invalidated.

And this is how one stupid move ereases the gain of the last days.

I wasnt patient today, did not let the market show me the way.
As John Goodman would put it: "This is what happens, when you try to fuck the market in the ass."

And so we are back at 0 profit.

I didnt take a trade on friday. I was expecting a move down but there were no suitable conditions for it. So this no trade was a good trade.

But I did take a trade 1 hour before the open of fridays asian session.
This is of course against my rules and just a big stupid mystake - the 2nd one this week - but I'll still analyse it a bit.

We had a strong move up the day before, we reached and bounced from the 1H 200 EMA and before the asian session price started to drop slowly.
I asumed () that price will recede during the asian session and that I will wake up with my TP hit at the daily pivot. Generally I saw that in the asian session price continues in the same directions so...

Anyway, I see that I can trade this system profitable, as long as I dont brake the rules and stay patient.

For the next week my plan is, besides avoiding the above mentioned, to wait a bit longer with my first TP, so that my full lot runs longer.

You are correct in saying that sometimes an indicator can blind you to a trade set up that is very obvious using Support/Resistance and trendlines.

Any time you use an indicator to base trade decesions on you will run the risk of missing those types of moves since as we know the indicator is lagging price action.

I base all my trades off price action and use Support/Resistance, Trend Lines as well as pivots and Moving average bounces. I use the indicators to confirm what price is telling me.

If the indicators and price are not "dancing the same dance" I may still take the trade based on price bouncing or reversing off an S/R zone or a breakout and the indicators will catch up eventually.

You do have a good system in place. Eventually after you have spent several hundred hours looking at charts and following your system rules your "intuition" will play a part and you will know when to trade ahead of what the indicators are telling you and still win.

I hope that made sense and was food for thought.

Keep up the journal, so far so good. You have not given up yet so you are definitely on the right track...

Regards

Jeremy

It's impossible to trade one time frame and don't pay attention to other time frames and get long term positive results , just impossible ...

No trades today.

My sentiment for today was sell, so I was waiting for a setup to confirm my expectation.
As I've learned today, the market will do what it will do, by expecting certain moves you can only limit yourself.

I am satisfied, I did not enter on the short at the start of Franfurt but waited how PA will develope.
Acctualy, I was waiting for when a good short setup will develope and not just listening to what PA is telling.
So I've missed out a good up move.

I knew that the Greece bailout expectations will likely boost the Euro, we were in an uptrend and above 200 EMA... but somehow I've expected and wanted the price to do down and as a result of this rigid stance didnt take a clear setup.

Trade what you see!!!

Today I've opened my platform this morning and thought to myself: "Damn, what a choppy market. How the hell should I position myself here?".

Well, it seems like I should shoot around with entries like a cowboy

So LO comes, I see price going down a bit, I see divergence, overbought... Though I knew I should be cautious with those early London candles.
But 1H TDI crossed and I went in short. Then a double bounce from the daily pivot and I've closed with +3.

Then I thought, well, we are still in uptrend, the last low did not brake yet, upsloping trendline also not broken... I see PA which seemed to support my idea about a long continuation, but... shouldnt I wait till price cleares the last high?
But then it will be maybe to late to enter...
So I go long, price reverses... doh.

To much thinking, to much uncertainties, should not have traded, at least not the 2nd long trade.

My trading was a bit unstructered, it needed to be put into a certain perspective or structure.
Luckily, there are some guys on this forum, willing to help out us poor noob traders and point us into a better direction.

So nawlins51 suggested to me to check out Ken Lee's S/D trading as to better understand which zones are likely to produce stronger price movement.

I've studied the material those last days and made 2 trades today.

1st: EU for +23

Here are my zones from the daily perspective (except for the upper one all are from 1H):
http://shrani.si/t/3t/kp/2ohyklzL/eu1.jpg

And my trade from the 30 min chart:
http://shrani.si/t/2V/dX/382Xzxbc/eu2.jpg

My TP just didnt get hit (1-2 pips) and price finaly hit my moved stoploss.
My reasoning for the trade was that the ranging period of a few days got broken to the upside. It hit my daily zone nicely and I've entered just below it for a retracement.
My original TP did got hit few hours later.


2nd: GU for -12

This trade was not a good one. I saw an interesting level for a retracement on the 30 min chart, but missed the big picture, where we clearly see a head and shoulders pattern. And my zone, was just a minor pause on the way down.
http://shrani.si/t/10/tG/18FKwVRf/gu1.jpg

Price stagnated for some time there with some attemps to move back down but no follow through. In the end SL hit. But at least it was a tight stop.
However, after hitting my SL price started moving down.
http://shrani.si/t/2V/bu/3vkXwstc/gu2.jpg

I will continue to study this method, I've picked 4 pairs and I'll try to wait for high probability setups.

I've spent some time during the last days reading Ken Lee's S/D thread and James16 PA thread.
I also decided to stick to daily charts for the next period, but somehow I again ended up on the 1H...

Here is what came out of it:

Yesterday I've set a pending order because of bearish engulfing:
http://shrani.si/t/3Y/W3/3TrH3m7z/d.jpg

But when it didnt get hit I've fooled around with the 1H and made a loss.

Well, if I'd let it be, it would have been triggered and on the way to a nice profit by now:
http://shrani.si/t/3N/3b/2foJ50El/e.jpg

A daily trade from the end of the last week. Things played out nicely.
Price did eventually reach my TP just above the fibs on monday, before turning north. But, I've closed allready before the weekend.

Still have 2 trades open, one cruising around BE and the other in nice profit.

Nice article about the benefits of daily charts and the pitfalls of short TF's.

Still have 2 trades open; short EUR/JPY and NZD/USD. Both looking sweet.

Closed 2 trades yesterday at NY close.

Shorting NZD/USD was a classic setup. We had a ranging period just below 0.85 for some 15 days, then a nice pinbar failing to break this RN and 2 days later followed the move down. Weakly was also forming a bearish pinbar.
I was a bit concerned about the range support area but it went through without problems.

The 2nd trade was also a short - EUR/JPY. I have entred after the bearish inside bar. I found confimation in the failure of price to break 110.000 which was alined with 365 ema. Weakly was also moving down after 2 strong up weeks.

In both cases the TDI confimed the short positions.

Currently Im short USD/NZD after pinbar.

AUD/NZD short after pinbar ended profitable but I should have managed it a bit differently.

I have entered below the pin, but should have set my order in the lower third of the pinbar, as retracements after pins happen almost always. That would have also made my SL smaller and TP could be at the 356 and 50 EMA which in the end (temporarly) rejected the move down.

Another option would be to move my SL just to BE and not so close to the action, to let it breath.