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Chartist

  • #21
  • Dec 29, 2011 10:34am Dec 29, 2011 10:34am
Quoting Tyoon
Following off from my previous post; I have not noted down the % change of yesterday's movement on each currency but it's graphically clear what currency was most bought or sold. USD was bought more than GBP was sold. GBP was sold more than JPY was bought.

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i am not so into correlation but those charts u made interest me to a whole new level. i use basic corr and hedging techniques thas as far as i go ty.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #22
  • Dec 29, 2011 10:58am Dec 29, 2011 10:58am
Why were dollars so badly demanded yesterday? Risk off. Technically the DOW showed signs of a top. It double topped touching a confluence of two pivot points ending it with a flag.

When equities sell off the money generally flows back into dollars which is what can be seen in my previous chart. The mystery for me is why did GBP sell off before USD gained strength?

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  • #23
  • Dec 29, 2011 1:50pm Dec 29, 2011 1:50pm
Beautiful song.

Inserted Video
  • #24
  • Dec 29, 2011 2:10pm Dec 29, 2011 2:10pm
Any pin bar junkies out there? A lovely fresh daily ready served. Gold has had a battering, it might need to correct or retrace.

Time to look in the toolbox to seek some levels.

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  • #25
  • Dec 29, 2011 2:23pm Dec 29, 2011 2:23pm
Quoting Tyoon
This 4yr trend looks like it is topping out. Gold looks like it has been correlated with EURUSD since EURUSD topped out in September.

Price has poked it's tail out of the LTL. Will it retrace back in? Will it break out and pull back? If gold continues to correlate with EURUSD it looks like it's up trend is over.
Soros Sees Gold Prices on Brink of Bear Market

You don't need a trader like Soros to see a brink of a bear market, just look at your damn chart.


Quoting Tyoon
Anybody looking at Gold as well? If that 4YR LTL goes............ bad EUR news in next couple of months might do it. Although it could be a great time to buy if respected.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...8&d=1325085801
  • #26
  • Edited 2:47pm Dec 29, 2011 2:34pm | Edited 2:47pm
If anybody reads this thread... what's your opinion on gold's direction? Go back inside it's TL haven or head out into the abyss of bear market?

A couple of good thread replies I want to keep on the subject of TLs:

Quoting smittens4212
With trendlines formed on flags, pennents, and formations of this type of nature, I tend to let price hit or break the trendline and wait 1-4 bars to see what happens after. Depending on the PA (did we have a quick retouch to the trendline before resuming direction? did price barely break the trendline and then slowly fade back, no momentum? etc.), I'll either fade the move, stand aside, or try to enter in the direction of the break on the first retracement (ideally back to the trendline).

I never enter in the direction of the break on the break. If I want to get in on that direction, I always wait for a retrace.
Quoting Ewaver
I agree with Smittens..I am new to the forum, but I have 10+ years of trading experience. My experience with buying or selling the break is that typically you expose your account to a large amount of risk with pennants or wedges. I have seen som many people sell the break and then think that the opposite trendline is where they should place their stop. Those are typically, high risk, low reward trades..1:1-1:2 if that....My approach with trendlines is to watch how the market reacts to the trendline. If it breaks, it almost always tests and then I watch the structure of the test. Is it corrective? and if so then I can define my risk, because I will not allow the price to go back through it too far. My primary use of trendlines is for confirmation, not entry. Confirmation of the existing trend continuing combined with previous Fibonacci and support and resistance level. If the market pulls back in an overlapping pattern and I have all of those in place...to me that is high probability trade. Just my two cents...
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  • #27
  • Dec 30, 2011 3:20am Dec 30, 2011 3:20am
I was sat watching the EURUSD and EUR index and USD index while sipping on some green tea.

EURUSD started going down, looked at Dollar index, it was going up and Euro index was going down... obvious. Then Dollar paused while Euro carried on selling off.

I was watching S/R on both Euro and Dollar. What happened? Euro and Dollar both paused at their own S/R resulting in the pause in EURUSD.

These S/R levels are not visible as a pair, that is why it is useful to watch them as singulars.

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  • #28
  • Dec 30, 2011 3:39am Dec 30, 2011 3:39am
I am going to keep an eye on this non-linear TL indicator. I have tested it before on a lower TF and it worked poorly because it consistently adapts and changes it's overall shape... unlike bollinger bands (that update).

On a larger TF it could be more constant for when price is in a channel like we are right now.

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  • #29
  • Dec 30, 2011 4:31am Dec 30, 2011 4:31am
Nice analysis bro,all of your charts are very clean and beautiful
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #30
  • Dec 30, 2011 4:34am Dec 30, 2011 4:34am
Quoting FXMindset
Nice analysis bro,all of your charts are very clean and beautiful
Lol, which one

Gunna do one on gold in a bit. Looks like it is following through on yesterday's bullish pin bar.
  • #31
  • Dec 30, 2011 4:46am Dec 30, 2011 4:46am
Quoting Tyoon
Any pin bar junkies out there? A lovely fresh daily ready served. Gold has had a battering, it might need to correct or retrace.

Time to look in the toolbox to seek some levels.

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i would like to see that happen. looks technically solid.

hows the volume on that bar? is it high?
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #32
  • Dec 30, 2011 5:03am Dec 30, 2011 5:03am
Quoting bumapatria
i would like to see that happen. looks technically solid.

hows the volume on that bar? is it high?
Here we are:

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Attached Image
  • #33
  • Dec 30, 2011 5:20am Dec 30, 2011 5:20am
Quoting Tyoon
I am going to keep an eye on this non-linear TL indicator. I have tested it before on a lower TF and it worked poorly because it consistently adapts and changes it's overall shape... unlike bollinger bands (that update).

On a larger TF it could be more constant for when price is in a channel like we are right now.

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hey ty if u want try this, not sure if it wil lhelp but its colorful and cool graphics fosho


tell me if it works i barely use it
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #34
  • Dec 30, 2011 5:20am Dec 30, 2011 5:20am
Quoting Tyoon
Here we are:

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confrimed buyers there
thx for the chart
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #35
  • Dec 30, 2011 5:22am Dec 30, 2011 5:22am
Quoting bumapatria
hey ty if u want try this, not sure if it wil lhelp but its colorful and cool graphics fosho


tell me if it works i barely use it
Try what?
  • #36
  • Dec 30, 2011 5:36am Dec 30, 2011 5:36am
Quoting Tyoon
Try what?
i uploaded indis like a trendline majiggeriwgger i think..

its not there... will try again
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 TrendLineChannel WC_NLR.ex4   58 KB | 737 downloads
File Type: mq4 TrendLineChannel WC_NLR.mq4   26 KB | 807 downloads
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #37
  • Dec 31, 2011 11:36am Dec 31, 2011 11:36am
This is a great article about average daily price ranges:

"The Average Daily Range Of The Major Forex Currency Pairs
If you are trading any kind of intraday forex system, then it's always a good idea to be fully aware of the average daily range of the pair(s) you are trading. This is because you always want to know how much further a pair could realistically move given it's daily average in order to determine where you should set your stop loss and target price.

For instance if a pair has an average daily range of 100 points and during a given day it has been trading in a range of 100 points or more (and is trading at the top of this range with just an hour or so left), then you obviously would not want to be opening a long position because the odds are very much against you.

However if, for example, the range is currently 60 points and there is several hours left of the trading session, then a long position at the top of the range (or vice versa) may well be worth considering given the right circumstances because there is still room for a decent price move to take place.

Anyway I have listed below the average daily trading ranges for all of the major currency pairs for 2008 (I haven't been able to find any figures for 2009 yet). I hope you find the information useful.
GBP/JPY – 348
GBP/CHF – 270
EUR/JPY – 239
GBP/USD – 222
AUD/JPY – 213
CAD/JPY – 201
EUR/USD – 177
NZD/JPY – 175
AUD/USD – 155
USD/JPY – 149
USD/CAD – 148
USD/CHF – 145
EUR/CHF – 128
NZD/USD – 126
EUR/GBP – 80

"
  • #38
  • Dec 31, 2011 3:26pm Dec 31, 2011 3:26pm
Quoting Tyoon
This is a great article about average daily price ranges:

"The Average Daily Range Of The Major Forex Currency Pairs
If you are trading any kind of intraday forex system, then it's always a good idea to be fully aware of the average daily range of the pair(s) you are trading. This is because you always want to know how much further a pair could realistically move given it's daily average in order to determine where you should set your...
thanks for the info ty, Wishing u the best of this new year!


how old is that data though? im seeing quite some newer ranges... (or is it just me)...

hey ty if ure a man trade eurnzd. 20 pip spread but price moves around 200-300 pips on a daily candle from open to close. yes its that nuts. or more i think... i was quite surprised when i saw it too..

anyways take care mate
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #39
  • Dec 31, 2011 5:02pm Dec 31, 2011 5:02pm
Quoting bumapatria
thanks for the info ty, Wishing u the best of this new year!


how old is that data though? im seeing quite some newer ranges... (or is it just me)...

hey ty if ure a man trade eurnzd. 20 pip spread but price moves around 200-300 pips on a daily candle from open to close. yes its that nuts. or more i think... i was quite surprised when i saw it too..

anyways take care mate
Yeah it's old data but it was the info of the article that interested me. I'm checking nzd now. Funny how you see all these different versions of EURUSD when you look at new pairs.

Although I got to say the average daily range is higher on EURUSD:101, NZDUSD 73.

Looks like NZD is in a daily triangle range. It has hit TLT (although AUD has spiked out). On friday the Dollar bounced off demand. I expect NZD to bounce bearish back into the triangle.

All the pairs are so related and similar... it's because they all revolve around the dollar. I think the currency market it 80% dollars.

Happy new year to you Buma buddy. I have an hour left here in 2011. An hour from now it will be 2012!!

May the riches be with us.
  • #40
  • Jan 1, 2012 7:55am Jan 1, 2012 7:55am
Here are my lines drawn out for the beginning of 2012.

I am currently only interested in this TL on top chart for daily.

Second chart is 4H.

My third chart is my hour chart. Waiting for the market to open tomorrow to get the M/W/D pivots.

Happy new year people.

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