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Trading by the Light of the Moon

  • Post #1
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  • First Post: Sep 7, 2011 7:58am Sep 7, 2011 7:58am
Trading by the Light of the Moon

by Vincent Troncone

For Millennia the Moon has been thought to have considerable effect on Life here on Planet Earth, Especially as it relates to humans. Now to some that may seem like some kind esoteric idea or mysticism but it may be more scientific then you think.

Considering our bodies are largely made up of water this idea isn't so far fetched. We can see the Lunar Effects on the Tides here on Earth and how powerful they are but that is not the only area affected in my opinion.

"So," you may ask, "Why is a guy who invests in the market writing an article about the moon?" Good question!

In my research, I have found what appears to be a direct correlation between the primary phases of the moon and the points at which any given, freely-traded market will reverse direction. To say the least, this phenomenon is quite amazing and has nothing to do with astrology and everything to do with astronomy and physics.

The cycle of the moon from new moon to new moon is called the synodic cycle. It is 29.5 days in length.

This cycle, although invisible, appears to have quite an effect on the markets. I would venture to say: Not only is the moon involved but other planetary bodies in our solar system as well.

Think of our Solar System as nothing more than a big Clock. Everything we do here on Earth is based on Cycles. Our method of keeping time and our Calendar is all based on the relationship of the Sun Earth and Moon and how long it takes for the bodies to move a certain distance in a certain time. Even our Seasons change as a result of these relationships.

I am not a Scientist or claiming to be one so lets move on to the empirical evidence.
this was 5 hours ago... so where's the empirical evidence? or do you just like starting threads with nothing but copy and pasted twaddle from somewhere on the internet?

the whole moon cycle thing affecting humans due to us having a high water content has always sounded like such badly associated hokum made up by someone smoking too much weed reading some astrology book from their local snake oil salegirl (let's face it, it's always girls who are into this stupid shit and can't see how retarded it is). you take yourself a nice dose of nighttime, add in somewhere with some form of lighting such as a local park, or 7-eleven store, or macdonalds carpark, or waterfront walkway, and you will no doubt find people... so why is it that when the moon is out that no one sees a correlation between being able to see at night due to the moonlight and the rise in night activities when the moon is full? seems pretty friggin obvious to me, and none of it involves the moon affecting our bodies as though we are a massive body of water that is able to be affected!

common sense and simple reasoning goes a long way!
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
ok,ive made enough money from my edge and today im going to share it,it seems others have stumbled apon it so here it is.
when i see a full moon,i BUY.when its a half moon i SELL,when there is no moon i dont trade unless already in a trade.if i see the outline of a warewolf in shadow form from the moons light .i close and reverse.

good luck
Seeing as how Lunar phases have a direct and scientifically proven effect on wildlife, their mating habits, migratory patterns etc..... and given the effect on tides and weather patterns....... why is it so difficult to believe that the moon has no effect on people and their actions?
Quoting nubcake
why is it so difficult to believe? why do casino's remove all clocks? why do moths flock to street lights?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circadi...0.93dark_cycle

http://www.marksdailyapple.com/how-l...cts-our-sleep/

cause and effect. it's not always what you think it is...

A brunette walked into her new doctors office, and started complaining to him that everything on her body hurts when she touches it. The doctor said to show him. So, she touched her elbow, and let out a horrible scream....
Think more gravitational pull and not so much luminary difference. We have a +/- constant gravitational effect from the sun that oscillates due to the earths spin and tilt. The Moon can compound or dampen that effect by it being in conjunction or opposition.

To the OP, also look into the moons perigee and apogee in relation to phasing and standalone measures.

To note: For all you indicator buffs, the author of the ADX and RSI indicators,Mr Welles Wilder set everything aside to embrace what he believes as the best trading system........ Look up the Delta Phenomenon and the Delta Society. Trading based on repetitive timing signals derived from the moon and it's phases.

Fwiw,
@ Nubcake - Fair enough, circadian rhythm is about sleeping cycles which has nothing to do with trading.

... How about Schumman's resonance? I mean, an aspect of trading is human behavior and human behavior is linked with the human brain... which is all about brainwaves (electromagnetic fields). Lunar affects the earth's electromagnetic fields and electromagnetic stimulation affects brainwaves... and thus affecting behavior.

(http://www.sandrelli.net/Schumann - haarp.pdf)
@ E/one

not sure about moon cycles as it'd be really hard to empirically prove, but I do feel things like a persons sugar levels or hormone levels affect a traders performance

if a trader hasnt had a decent shag then surely this would cloud their judgement

my two pennies worth
Quoting CrucialPoint
@ Nubcake - Fair enough, circadian rhythm is about sleeping cycles which has nothing to do with trading.

... How about Schumman's resonance? I mean, an aspect of trading is human behavior and human behavior is linked with the human brain... which is all about brainwaves (electromagnetic fields). Lunar affects the earth's electromagnetic fields and electromagnetic stimulation affects brainwaves... and thus affecting behavior.

(http://www.sandrelli.net/Schumann - haarp.pdf)...
i'm far too tired (you know the time) to read that all right now, so saved for tomorrow... because if nothing else, it's interesting.

i wasn't talking about sleep cycles and trading, so to speak. i was replying to auxesis saying how it's been scientifically proven that animals are affected by the moon cycles. you can put people into a room without clocks and natural light, like a casino, or in a scientifically driven experiment, and manipulate their behavior via controlling the artificial light they receive. at no point was gravity changed, only the light stimulation.

occam's razor. to me it makes mounds more sense that animals, and therefore humans, are far more inclined to be affected by changes in light cycles than by something waaaaay out in space that affects our seas and people suggest therefore affects us since we are mostly water. how do astronauts fair then when the earth's gravity drastically lessens? if the small affect the moon has on a person when it pulls the tide up, then astronauts must surely lose their fricken minds or become geniuses when they leave our atmosphere and start floating about?

is this why bruce willis let ben affleck go home and bang liv tyler? he either had clarity, or lost his mind and decided to sacrifice himself and let little liv ride the ben train?

i just read in that pdf, or somewhere online (i already forget :S), how when the french were doing their nuclear test in the ocean that 2 hours after they exploded the bomb there were significantly more car crashes in sydney... now i remember that time somewhat well, and even i was feeling pretty outraged at the whole situation, so to me it makes sense that there would be more accidents due to people being pissed-off to the max and stressed, and not to mention the people protesting and kids wagging school to protest etc. the time was naturally volatile and far more so than usual, so accidents and shit are expected to happen and surely is expected.... but instead the article was relating the cause of this to be the effect the bomb must have had on the earths electric fields and therefore affecting people in sydney. seems like a pretty long stretch to me. again, occam's razor.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
I remember reading this a while ago. Might be of interest to some of you....
ive mentioned before in past posts relating to the ft100,a method ive developed over time which has to now ,proven positive,as i have said in past such posts,there is a cycle,this cycle lasts between 22 to 30 days,which 90 % of the time clears all my positions,the 10 % of remaining open trades fall into the greater cycle which averages 90 days,these cycles do not work in synce with our calander .im averaging 25 trades a weak .now the hard part is reconizing the extremes of both cycles,because they become a part of the overall cycle which is not tradable due to the black swan.i need to trade some of these trades on futers ,which also fall within expirey cycles,understanding at which piont of the cycle im in and which cycle the given trade falls into ,tells me what expiry i should place that trade.i have no understanding of the lunar cycles ,but i make money if i constantly monitor were to or not to place my trades within the cycles position in the now.

umm heavy stuff,and hard to put into words,
Quoting diceman555
ive mentioned before in past posts relating to the ft100,a method ive developed over time which has to now ,proven positive,as i have said in past such posts,there is a cycle,this cycle lasts between 22 to 30 days,which 90 % of the time clears all my positions,the 10 % of remaining open trades fall into the greater cycle which averages 90 days,these cycles do not work in synce with our calander .im averaging 25 trades a weak .now the hard part is reconizing the extremes of both cycles,because they become a part of the overall cycle which is not...
way too complicated for me i'm just a simple man
Quoting diceman555
ive mentioned before in past posts relating to the ft100,a method ive developed over time which has to now ,proven positive,as i have said in past such posts,there is a cycle,this cycle lasts between 22 to 30 days,which 90 % of the time clears all my positions,the 10 % of remaining open trades fall into the greater cycle which averages 90 days,these cycles do not work in synce with our calander .im averaging 25 trades a weak .now the hard part is reconizing the extremes of both cycles,because they become a part of the overall cycle which is not...
sounds like you've got an edge with timing your trades as the market breathes in and out.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
Quoting diceman555
ive mentioned before in past posts relating to the ft100,a method ive developed over time which has to now ,proven positive,as i have said in past such posts,there is a cycle,this cycle lasts between 22 to 30 days,which 90 % of the time clears all my positions,the 10 % of remaining open trades fall into the greater cycle which averages 90 days,these cycles do not work in synce with our calander
Hey diceman. Your strategy sounds very similar to Hurst cycles which were originally applied to stocks & shares but which some are now using on 4X. It was interesting that you mention those cycle timescales because they are close to some of the 9 or so time frames which Hurst 'discovered'.

There was a charting package available especially to trade these cycles (I forget its name now) but apparently it does reasonably well.

Interesting concept.

Regards, Paul.
  • Post #14
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  • Edited 5:01am Sep 9, 2011 4:29am | Edited 5:01am
Very entertaining thread!

I don't know what affect, if any, the moon has on traders or their trading. I think we can all agree that IF there is an affect, it is very very miniscule. One problem I see with those that put alot of credence into the moon phase thing is that they don't mention (at least enough) how the moon's gravitational affects are constant and that it's the relative positioning of the moon and sun that a difference in gravitational pull on earth occurs. So since we are always subjected to the moons gravity, is it the difference in gravitational pull from the changing moon and sun directions that changes moods?? And if so, then how do people in different positions on earth get affected? Surely earths gravity has the most affect. In essence, someone on the north or south pole is getting pulled differently than someone on the equator? Are they better traders for it?

Regardless, the idea of the moon phases is not going to trump any of the tangible reasons why a market moves (rates, news, supply & demand, traders not having a good shag in awhile. lol)
Quoting CindyXXXX
You know when you watch those old movies and there's that court room of fk wits with wigs on laughing at the guy who tells them the world is actually round?

That's what this thread reminds me of. No vision, no research, just your own limited beliefs.

The maker of this thread reminds me of the smarter guy in that movie ,without the gay wig, that is simply presenting his research.

Funny world, but to judge something you simply don't understand is foolish and ill founded. And no, I would never trade by the moon. But if you've got nothing better...
I understand the point you are trying to make Cindy. No one should bash an idea because it is possible that they just might not understand it. To bash it would then be ignorance and not polite. However, those that suggest there is something to the moon trading concept have failed to provide empirical and undisputable evidence. Therefore, it is natural to be skeptical. And let's not downplay skepticism for it is a healthy part of the scientific process. It helps drive people to prove or disprove.
Some general links:
sunspots/moon/planets, earthquakes/core/plates, tides/droughts/hurricanes; business/Kondratieff.
@Cindy

I agree, its easy to slag off s/one but not very cool esp. when the guy is sharing s/thing

i mean if it helps even one person then surely its worth it
@ Cindy

and?
  • Post #19
  • Quote
  • Edited 5:32am Sep 9, 2011 4:59am | Edited 5:32am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Prove it's right? Prove it's wrong!
http://www.null-hypothesis.co.uk/sci...ull_hypothesis
this fellow trades the moon, works for him apparently

as far as i'm concerned, trade tea leaves if it works for you
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