Spider's Den

waiting for 38.2. fibonachi to buy ...

Are u going with breakout entry?

that was first plan ... with Greeks in back
Now just waiting for channel corection to +- 1.15000 ...
my goal is 50+ pips ... (resistance level at 1.14500)

USDCAD is in uptrend and we can see 2 confluence points where bounce may occur towards 1.2560. First POC comes at 1.2460-70 zone and we can see L3, 61.8 fib and near term buyers in history. In the case of a deeper pullback we see 78.6, fib, L4 and inner trendline which make POC2 zone around 1.2430-20. First target is 2520 followed by 1.2560. In the case of extensive volatility it may overshoot to 1.2620.

Closed with 40+ pip profit. Thank you!

RE: EUR pairs

Here is my fundamental take on why we should get a strong lift in the EUR against most pairs once the short-term financing is sorted in Greece.

EUR is trading lower at the moment on fear of a Grexit and its potentially failed refinancing, with increasing risk that other countries will follow with an exit (namely Spain). I rate the Grexit (and Drachma MkII being introduced) almost less than 10% chance based on the following:

1. European Commission is partially supportive for the current Greek short term financing proposal;
2. Merkel has not publicly expressed any strong concerns about the current Greek proposal (only Schaueble has) - Merkel is key, she is a problem solver;
3. The Greek public took a vote (last week) and 80% voted that they want to stay in the EU and keep the Euros;
4. If Greece introduce Drachma MkII, it is very likely to cause a Bank run in Greece. In the short term - this could be catastrophic to Greece and increases the risk of default to its Creditors;
5. The EU wants Greece to stay in the Eurozone, as a Grexit increases the risk that Portugal, Spain and Italy may follow;
6. The current Greek Government has publicly expressed that they want to stay in the EU and keep the Euro's - they are just trying to bargain a better deal so they can increase spending in their Government and reduce the privatizations;
7. The Greek Government will try to please the Greek population - refer to point 3 above.
8. The US has signaled to the Greek Government to come to a deal with the ECB, IMF, etc (in other words, US as a potential suitor to fund the debt is unlikely as touted by one of the Greek Ministers).
9. Also, what Foreign Creditor of Greece would want them to go to the Drachma MkII? Greece had a chronic history of depreciating the Drachma - and few foreign investors would want their investment denominated in Drachma as it is likely to reduce their investment value over the longer term. If the debts remain on Euro terms, and Greece introduce Drachma MkII, creditors are more unlikely to get their full investment back as Greece will find it harder to repay its debt denominated in a stronger currency.

To me this short term financing will get done. Then they'll have 6 months to negotiate longer term financing. That's why I have taken long positions on the cheapest stock market in the world - Eg Greece 25.

I am waiting for a suitable point to take a long position on the EUR/USD pair (1.131 was good a little earlier today!).

I expect the EUR to strengthen once this short-term deal is done, either later today or by the end of the week. I would like to wait for a good entry point.

I was proven wrong with the RBA decision a couple of months back, but the more I think it about it - the RBA had a target to get to 7500 and the market was expecting the rate cuts. This time with Greece, the public wants to stay in the EU and keep the Euro's, so its government will try its best to keep their public satisfied.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...0LO0O620150220

Further to the above.... Deal could be closer than we think.

I've taken a long and short position on EUR/USD.

Hoping the short position is in profit by the time of the greek deal is announcend and then i'll bank that, then ride the long position hopefully to profit.

How will you know when to exit your short? If the news comes out the movement will probably be quick.

try my best to flick it....

http://www.theguardian.com/business/...s-live-updates


ECB is planning for Grexit as announced. This will put some fear in those holding EUR's. Expecting a selloff.

Mr T may have some insights on targets for EUR/USD if there is a Grexit (which, I think it'll break a new low) vs Greek deal done.

100 pips UP, straight from POC!!!

I will respond to all questions later, very busy!

BTW PariCovek - excellent fundamental overview!

1.0750. But as PariCovek said, the deal could get us to sell for a better price.

Yep. It seems the deal is done. There might b some gaps during the weekend. EURUSD is back at yesterday's levels.

For further insight into EURUSD we need to see NY action. This is still range play, and selling into rallies looks like most favorable option.

Tarantula which indicator you support most or you use most of your trade 1. privot2 or 2. SupDem ?

Thanks.

Pivot2, which is actually the best camarilla indicator on the market. Thanks again to my friend, MicFX who made it.

AUDUSD might start selling now as the price came to POC zone. 0.7830 is the resistance. However AUDUSD first target is close ( 0.7780) if it breaks it should retest 0.7755.

AUDUSD has made some pullback from 0.7775 levels band it has come into the POC zone 0.7800-0.7810. Interim resistance shows at 0.7830, so if the pair manages to stay below 0.7830 it could retest 0.7775 and if it breaks then 0.7755 is the next target. POC is showing inner trend line confluence with L4, 50.0 fib,and inner trendline and it should reject the pair. in the case of 0.7812 breakout the pair might extend the gains to 0.7830 next resistance.

+15 getting close to 1st target zone